Download or read book Forecasting Crime Data written by James Alan Fox and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Predictive Policing written by Walt L. Perry and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2013-09-23 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to identify targets for police intervention with the goal of preventing crime, solving past crimes, or identifying potential offenders and victims. These tools are not a substitute for integrated approaches to policing, nor are they a crystal ball. This guide assesses some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches for acting on predictions in an effective way.
Download or read book The crime forecasting process Application critique and discussion written by Andrea Attwenger and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2016-02-22 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2016 in the subject Computer Sciences - Artificial Intelligence, grade: 1.3, LMU Munich (Institut für Informatik), course: Seminar und Praktikum Wissenschaftliches Arbeiten und Lehren, language: English, abstract: The development of new information systems and data mining techniques has made it possible to make predictions of the place, time, victim or perpetrator of a future crime by analyzing past crime reports. Providing that enough relevant data has been collected before, computational algorithms can be used to find patterns and forecast crimes. Underlying theories make use of criminological findings such as the increased threat to areas already targeted once or to areas close to a victimized neighborhood. The usage of computers allows for a quicker and more effective analysis as well as the discovery of patterns otherwise not humanly detectable. In order to be effective, forecasts need to be followed by concrete measures. They can be used to plan police operations and specifically deploy forces and resources in realtime. This paper describes the most important steps of the crime forecasting process.
Download or read book Predictive Policing written by Walter L. Perry and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2013-09-23 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to identify targets for police intervention with the goal of preventing crime, solving past crimes, or identifying potential offenders and victims. These tools are not a substitute for integrated approaches to policing, nor are they a crystal ball. This guide assesses some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches for acting on predictions in an effective way.
Download or read book Predictive Crime Analysis using R written by Jeffrey Strickland and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2019-02-14 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predictive Crime Analysis using R is Dr. Strickland's second crime analysis book. In this volume, rather than using data to describe crime history, he uses it to predict crime using pattern created with advanced clustering methods, crime series linkage, and text analysis. Coverage includes prediction of conventional crime and terrorist attacks. The open-source software R is introduced and used in developing crime data, including Geo-spatial data, and constructing predictive models and performing post analysis. Using actual crime data from cities like Atlanta, Dr. Strickland also shows how to simulate additional data from actual data. Simulated data can then be used in cities with insufficient actual data, but with similar demographics and human behavior.
Download or read book Crime Dynamics written by Richard Rosenfeld and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2024-06-30 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Element reviews and augments research on changes over time in U.S. crime rates during the past several decades. Major topics include the data sources for studying crime trends; the relationship between homicide rates and rates of property crime, imprisonment, and firearm availability; trends in crime by sex, race, and age; the relationship between crime trends and economic conditions; crime trends and social institutions; abrupt changes in crime rates and exogenous shocks; forecasting crime rates; and the future of crime trends theory and research. The study of crime trends is as intellectually rewarding and practically important as any topic in criminology. But attracting scholars to this field of study of crime trends will require significant advancements in theory, methods, and policy application.
Download or read book Bibliography on Crime Forecasting and Related Topics written by and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Juvenile Crime Juvenile Justice written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2001-06-05 with total page 405 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even though youth crime rates have fallen since the mid-1990s, public fear and political rhetoric over the issue have heightened. The Columbine shootings and other sensational incidents add to the furor. Often overlooked are the underlying problems of child poverty, social disadvantage, and the pitfalls inherent to adolescent decisionmaking that contribute to youth crime. From a policy standpoint, adolescent offenders are caught in the crossfire between nurturance of youth and punishment of criminals, between rehabilitation and "get tough" pronouncements. In the midst of this emotional debate, the National Research Council's Panel on Juvenile Crime steps forward with an authoritative review of the best available data and analysis. Juvenile Crime, Juvenile Justice presents recommendations for addressing the many aspects of America's youth crime problem. This timely release discusses patterns and trends in crimes by children and adolescentsâ€"trends revealed by arrest data, victim reports, and other sources; youth crime within general crime; and race and sex disparities. The book explores desistanceâ€"the probability that delinquency or criminal activities decrease with ageâ€"and evaluates different approaches to predicting future crime rates. Why do young people turn to delinquency? Juvenile Crime, Juvenile Justice presents what we know and what we urgently need to find out about contributing factors, ranging from prenatal care, differences in temperament, and family influences to the role of peer relationships, the impact of the school policies toward delinquency, and the broader influences of the neighborhood and community. Equally important, this book examines a range of solutions: Prevention and intervention efforts directed to individuals, peer groups, and families, as well as day care-, school- and community-based initiatives. Intervention within the juvenile justice system. Role of the police. Processing and detention of youth offenders. Transferring youths to the adult judicial system. Residential placement of juveniles. The book includes background on the American juvenile court system, useful comparisons with the juvenile justice systems of other nations, and other important information for assessing this problem.
Download or read book Predict and Surveil written by Sarah Brayne and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020-10-22 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predict and Surveil offers an unprecedented, inside look at how police use big data and new surveillance technologies. Sarah Brayne conducted years of fieldwork with the LAPD--one of the largest and most technically advanced law enforcement agencies in the world-to reveal the unmet promises and very real perils of police use of data--driven surveillance and analytics.
Download or read book Criminal Justice Forecasts of Risk written by Richard Berk and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-04-06 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine learning and nonparametric function estimation procedures can be effectively used in forecasting. One important and current application is used to make forecasts of “future dangerousness" to inform criminal justice decision. Examples include the decision to release an individual on parole, determination of the parole conditions, bail recommendations, and sentencing. Since the 1920s, "risk assessments" of various kinds have been used in parole hearings, but the current availability of large administrative data bases, inexpensive computing power, and developments in statistics and computer science have increased their accuracy and applicability. In this book, these developments are considered with particular emphasis on the statistical and computer science tools, under the rubric of supervised learning, that can dramatically improve these kinds of forecasts in criminal justice settings. The intended audience is researchers in the social sciences and data analysts in criminal justice agencies.
Download or read book Predicting Crime written by M. Todd Henderson and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prediction markets have been proposed for a variety of public policy purposes, but no one has considered their application in perhaps the most obvious policy area: crime. This paper proposes and examines the use of prediction markets to forecast crime rates and the impact on crime from changes to crime policy, such as resource allocation, policing strategies, sentencing, post-conviction treatment, and so on. We make several contributions to the prediction markets and crime forecasting literature. First, we argue that prediction markets are especially useful in crime rate forecasting and criminal policy analysis, because information relevant to decisionmakers is voluminous, dispersed, and difficult to process efficiently. After surveying the current forecasting practices and techniques, we examine the use of standard prediction markets - such as those being used to predict everything from the weather to political elections to flu outbreaks - as a method of forecasting crime rates of various kinds. Second, we introduce some theoretical improvements to existing prediction markets that are designed to address specific issues that arise in policy-making applications, such as crime rate forecasting. Specifically, we develop the idea of prediction market event studies that can be used to test the influence of policy changes, both real and hypothetical, on crime rates. Given the high costs of changing policies, say issuing a moratorium on the death penalty or lowering mandatory minimum sentences for certain crimes, these markets provide a useful tool for policy makers operating under uncertainty. These event studies and the other policy markets we propose face a big hurdle, however, because predictions about the future imbed assumptions about the very policy choices they are designed to measure. We offer a method by which policy makers can interpret market forecasts in a way that isolates or unpacks underlying crime factors from expected policy responses, even when the responses are dependent on the crime factors. Finally, we discuss some practical issues about designing these markets, such as how to ensure liquidity, how to structure contracts, and the optimal market scope. We conclude with a modest proposal for experimenting with markets in this policy area.
Download or read book Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Advances and Applications written by Garima Mathur and published by Springer. This book was released on 2023-02-16 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gathers outstanding research papers presented in the 2nd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence: Advances and Application (ICAIAA 2021), held in Poornima College of Engineering, Jaipur, India during 27-28 March 2021. This book covers research works carried out by various students such as bachelor, master and doctoral scholars, faculty and industry persons in the area of artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep learning applications in healthcare, agriculture, business, security, etc. It will also cover research in core concepts of computer networks, intelligent system design and deployment, real time systems, WSN, sensors and sensor nodes, SDN, NFV, etc.
Download or read book Predictive Policing in Germany Opportunities and challenges of data analytical forecasting technology in order to prevent crime written by Vanessa Bauer and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2020-01-08 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2019 in the subject Computer Science - Theory, grade: A*, Management Center Innsbruck, language: English, abstract: This Master Thesis introduces theoretical fundamentals of Predictive Policing tools used in German police institutions such as Hot-Spot techniques, Near-Repeat approaches, Risk-terrain Analysis and Concentric-Zone Model. In times of Big Data, police work has also changed and the usage of forecasting technologies in order to prevent crime does not only vary state-wide in definitions but also in its application. Therefore, objectives and appliances are described in general. Additionally, a chronological transformation is established in order to compare lineages in Germany with those in the USA. Since Predictive Policing polarises, the research question deals with potential opportunities and challenges police institutions and the society have to deal with, when it comes to leveraging data-analytical forecasting technologies in order to prevent crime. The motivation for writing the Master Thesis about the present topic stems from the fact that it is highly current and has not yet been thoroughly studied. Preventing crime and thus ensuring a safe environment is an important field of research in our society and should be guaranteed with problem-oriented policing. Since there are varying considerations and application measures of PP according to different country side frameworks, the Thesis provides an overview about technical functioning and practical appliance within Germany. Therefore, content provides on the one hand added value for lecturers and students in the field of Public Security Management and related studies or police officers in the upper grade of the civil service. On the other hand, it serves to educate citizens about how far the technologies have progressed in this area and to what extent this will influence the lives of citizens in the future. Many police departments worldwide test software-based forecasting technologies according to their relevance in practice. Forecasting systems work with data sets about already registered crime activities. Those datasets are then complemented with socio-spatial, calendar and meteorological data. Since the amount of collected and analyzed data increases day by day, the question arises as to what extent Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence will influence the human advice origin to predict and prevent crime.
Download or read book Criminal Futures written by Simon Egbert and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-12-14 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores how predictive policing transforms police work. Police departments around the world have started to use data-driven applications to produce crime forecasts and intervene into the future through targeted prevention measures. Based on three years of field research in Germany and Switzerland, this book provides a theoretically sophisticated and empirically detailed account of how the police produce and act upon criminal futures as part of their everyday work practices. The authors argue that predictive policing must not be analyzed as an isolated technological artifact, but as part of a larger sociotechnical system that is embedded in organizational structures and occupational cultures. The book highlights how, for crime prediction software to come to matter and play a role in more efficient and targeted police work, several translation processes are needed to align human and nonhuman actors across different divisions of police work. Police work is a key function for the production and maintenance of public order, but it can also discriminate, exclude, and violate civil liberties and human rights. When criminal futures come into being in the form of algorithmically produced risk estimates, this can have wide-ranging consequences. Building on empirical findings, the book presents a number of practical recommendations for the prudent use of algorithmic analysis tools in police work that will speak to the protection of civil liberties and human rights as much as they will speak to the professional needs of police organizations. An accessible and compelling read, this book will appeal to students and scholars of criminology, sociology, and cultural studies as well as to police practitioners and civil liberties advocates, in addition to all those who are interested in how to implement reasonable forms of data-driven policing.
Download or read book The Rise of Big Data Policing written by Andrew Guthrie Ferguson and published by NYU Press. This book was released on 2019-11-15 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner, 2018 Law & Legal Studies PROSE Award The consequences of big data and algorithm-driven policing and its impact on law enforcement In a high-tech command center in downtown Los Angeles, a digital map lights up with 911 calls, television monitors track breaking news stories, surveillance cameras sweep the streets, and rows of networked computers link analysts and police officers to a wealth of law enforcement intelligence. This is just a glimpse into a future where software predicts future crimes, algorithms generate virtual “most-wanted” lists, and databanks collect personal and biometric information. The Rise of Big Data Policing introduces the cutting-edge technology that is changing how the police do their jobs and shows why it is more important than ever that citizens understand the far-reaching consequences of big data surveillance as a law enforcement tool. Andrew Guthrie Ferguson reveals how these new technologies —viewed as race-neutral and objective—have been eagerly adopted by police departments hoping to distance themselves from claims of racial bias and unconstitutional practices. After a series of high-profile police shootings and federal investigations into systemic police misconduct, and in an era of law enforcement budget cutbacks, data-driven policing has been billed as a way to “turn the page” on racial bias. But behind the data are real people, and difficult questions remain about racial discrimination and the potential to distort constitutional protections. In this first book on big data policing, Ferguson offers an examination of how new technologies will alter the who, where, when and how we police. These new technologies also offer data-driven methods to improve police accountability and to remedy the underlying socio-economic risk factors that encourage crime. The Rise of Big Data Policing is a must read for anyone concerned with how technology will revolutionize law enforcement and its potential threat to the security, privacy, and constitutional rights of citizens. Read an excerpt and interview with Andrew Guthrie Ferguson in The Economist.
Download or read book Risk Terrain Modeling written by Joel M. Caplan and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Imagine using an evidence-based risk management model that enables researchers and practitioners alike to analyze the spatial dynamics of crime, allocate resources, and implement custom crime and risk reduction strategies that are transparent, measurable, and effective. Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) diagnoses the spatial attractors of criminal behavior and makes accurate forecasts of where crime will occur at the microlevel. RTM informs decisions about how the combined factors that contribute to criminal behavior can be targeted, connections to crime can be monitored, spatial vulnerabilities can be assessed, and actions can be taken to reduce worst effects. As a diagnostic method, RTM offers a statistically valid way to identify vulnerable places. To learn more, visit http://www.riskterrainmodeling.com and begin using RTM with the many free tutorials and resources.
Download or read book Understanding Crime Trends written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-01-05 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changes over time in the levels and patterns of crime have significant consequences that affect not only the criminal justice system but also other critical policy sectors. Yet compared with such areas as health status, housing, and employment, the nation lacks timely information and comprehensive research on crime trends. Descriptive information and explanatory research on crime trends across the nation that are not only accurate, but also timely, are pressing needs in the nation's crime-control efforts. In April 2007, the National Research Council held a two-day workshop to address key substantive and methodological issues underlying the study of crime trends and to lay the groundwork for a proposed multiyear NRC panel study of these issues. Six papers were commissioned from leading researchers and discussed at the workshop by experts in sociology, criminology, law, economics, and statistics. The authors revised their papers based on the discussants' comments, and the papers were then reviewed again externally. The six final workshop papers are the basis of this volume, which represents some of the most serious thinking and research on crime trends currently available.
