Download or read book Office for Budget Responsibiity Forecast Evaluation Report written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-10-09 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The backdrop to this report is: a real economy that, until very recently, has been weaker than expected; a labour market that has been stronger than expected in terms of employment, but weaker in terms of earnings growth; and a fall in public sector borrowing as a share of national income of around a third from its peak in 2009-10, with the deficit falling significantly in 2010-11 and 2011-12 but by much less in 2012-13. The report explains the OBR's June 2010 and March 2012 forecast errors, and the weakness of the real economy. GDP remains 3.3 per cent below its pre-recession peak, the disappointing performance over the last three years reflecting the weakness of domestic and external demand. Private sector employment growth has far exceeded forecasts. The March 2013 forecast for public sector borrowing predicted a figure of £119.8 billion in 2013-14, a reduction of £1 billion over the previous year; but the new forecast is for an increase of £4.2 billion increase over 2012-13.
Download or read book Economic and fiscal outlook written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2010-11-29 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.
Download or read book Understanding Economic Forecasts written by David F. Hendry and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Download or read book Forecast Evaluation Report October 2012 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2012-10-16 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report sets out how the economy and the public finances have evolved since the beginning of 2010 and examines how this evolution compares to the forecasts published by the OBR at the time of the Coalition's first budget in June 2010 and subsequently. In this year's report the key question to address is why the OBR over estimated the pace of economic growth so significantly since the autumn of 2010 whilst public sector borrowing has fallen no more slowly than expected? The underestimation of economic growth reflects several factors: the impact of stubborn inflation on real consumer spending; deteriorating export markets; impaired credit conditions; euro area anxiety and demand uncertainly for business investment. Public sector net borrowing, on the other hand, fell much as expected. The public finances have been buoyed by the resilience of cash spending and the labour market, while local and central government have spent less on public services and administration than budgeted. Individual chapters cover: the economy; the public finances; conclusions and lessons to be learned. Annexes contain the decomposition of fiscal forecast errors and comparison with past official forecasts.
Download or read book Forecasting principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Predictability of Weather and Climate written by Tim Palmer and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.
Download or read book Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-06-18 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.
Download or read book IEO Evaluation Report written by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-30 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) was established by the IMF’s Executive Board in 2001. It provides objective and independent evaluation of issues related to the IMF. The IEO operates independently of IMF management and at arm’s length from the IMF Executive Board. For more information on the IEO’s activities, visit the IEO website: www.ieo-imf.org.
Download or read book Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment written by Jan Kleissl and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-06-25 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. Scrutiny from solar project developers and their financiers on the accuracy of long-term resource projections and grid operators' concerns about variable short-term power generation have made the field of solar forecasting and resource assessment pivotally important. This volume provides an authoritative voice on the topic, incorporating contributions from an internationally recognized group of top authors from both industry and academia, focused on providing information from underlying scientific fundamentals to practical applications and emphasizing the latest technological developments driving this discipline forward. - The only reference dedicated to forecasting and assessing solar resources enables a complete understanding of the state of the art from the world's most renowned experts. - Demonstrates how to derive reliable data on solar resource availability and variability at specific locations to support accurate prediction of solar plant performance and attendant financial analysis. - Provides cutting-edge information on recent advances in solar forecasting through monitoring, satellite and ground remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction.
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Download or read book Economic and Fiscal Outlook March 2013 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-03-20 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2017-18 and assesses whether the Government is on course to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives. The economy grew slightly more strongly in 2012 than expected but also shrank more than expected in the final quarter, and entered 2013 with reduced momentum. This leads the OBR to revise growth forecasts to 0.6 per cent in 2013 and 1.8 per cent in 2014. Thereafter the forecasts are unchanged rising to 2.8 percent by 2017. The pace of recovery is constrained by slow growth in productivity and real incomes, continued problems in the financial system, the fiscal consolidation and the outlook for the global economy. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to be broadly flat this and next, then will resume its fall in 2014-15. Underlying deficits in PSNB are forecast to be very close to £120 billion in 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14. Tax receipts are £5.1 billion lower but central government departments are expected to underspend by almost £11 billion this year. The Government has a more than 50 per cent chance of meetings its fiscal mandate. Other forecasts by the OBR include: the ILO unemployment rate to peak at 8.0 per cent in 2014 before falling back to 6.9 per cent in 2017. Real wage growth is expected to be negative in 2013, only marginally positive in 2014 before picking up to 2 per cent in 2016. The publication contains: Chapter 1: Executive summary; Chapter 2: Developments since the December 2012 forecast; Chapter 3: Economic outlook; Chapter 4: Fiscal outlook; Chapter 5: Performance against the Government's fiscal targets; Annex A - Budget 2013 policy measures.
Download or read book Budget options written by United States. Congressional Budget Office and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Implementation Plan in Response to the Board Endorsed Recommendations for the IEO Evaluation of IMF Forecasts Process Quality and Country Perspective written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-18 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper sets out Management’s response to the Independent Evaluation Office’s (IEO) evaluation of IMF Forecasts: Process, Quality, and Country Perspectives. The implementation plan proposes specific actions to address the five recommendations that received broad support from the Executive Board, namely (i) maintaining the practice of commissioning external evaluations of IMF forecasts, (ii) enhancing the processes and incentives for learning from past forecast performance, (iii) extending guidance to desk economists on forecasting methodologies, (iv) publishing a description of the WEO forecasting process, and (iv) improving the public availability of data related to forecasts and outturns. Several of the proposed actions to address the Board-endorsed IEO recommendations have already been implemented following the Board discussion, while the implementation of some other actions is underway. This paper also explains how implementation will be monitored.
Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Download or read book Financial Forecasting Analysis and Modelling written by Michael Samonas and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-01-20 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.
Download or read book The Green Book written by Great Britain. Treasury and published by Stationery Office. This book was released on 2003 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edition incorporates revised guidance from H.M Treasury which is designed to promote efficient policy development and resource allocation across government through the use of a thorough, long-term and analytically robust approach to the appraisal and evaluation of public service projects before significant funds are committed. It is the first edition to have been aided by a consultation process in order to ensure the guidance is clearer and more closely tailored to suit the needs of users.
