Download or read book Forecast Disagreement and the Inflation Outlook written by Pierre L. Siklos and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Forecasting written by Stefania D'Amico and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book Sources of Disagreement in Inflation Forecasts written by Pierre L. Siklos and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.

Download or read book Measuring Disagreement in UK Consumer and Central Bank Inflation Forecasts written by Richhild Moessner and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecast Disagreement and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Asia Pacific Region written by Pierre L. Siklos and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the behaviour of inflation forecasts from a variety of sources (ie Consensus and other professional forecasters, international and domestic financial institutions, central banks) with the aim of measuring the size and evolution of forecast disagreements and their proximate sources (ie economic versus institutional determinants). An additional objective is to ascertain the extent to which inflationary expectations are anchored, the role played by domestic versus international shocks on changes in inflation forecasts, and whether developments since the global financial crisis have resulted in noticeable changes in the behaviour of inflationary expectations.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2248714" Globalisation and Inflation Dynamics in Asia and the Pacific.

Download or read book The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professionals written by Thomas Maag and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters written by Thomas Maag and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Forecasts in Asia and the Pacific written by Pierre L. Siklos and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Until the global financial crisis of 2008-09, central banks celebrated the achievement of lower and more stable inflation rates. With a few exceptions, this accomplishment was a global one. Motivated by concerns over whether the relentless easing of policy in economies most stricken by the US and euro zone financial crises may lead to higher future inflation, this paper examines inflation forecast performance along several dimensions. The focus is on 12 economies in Asia and the Pacific as well as inflation performance in the United States and the euro zone. The principal findings of the paper are as follows. Whether forecasts portend an unanchoring of expectations depends crucially on whether central banks convince the optimists or the pessimists amongst forecasters. Second, crisis times are precisely when central banks have the greatest flexibility to exploit deviations from some inflation objective. Third, forecasters can express a large degree of disagreement with central banks over one-year inflation forecasts especially during stressful economic times. The notion that forecasters essentially adopt or mimic central bank forecasts does not hold at all times, and especially not during stressful economic times.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2420025" Globalisation, Inflation and Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific.

Download or read book Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations written by Carlos Capistrán and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Disagreement in inflation expectations observed from survey data varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries in the forecasters' costs of over- and under-predicting inflation. Our model implies (i) biased forecasts; (ii) positive serial correlation in forecast errors; (iii) a cross-sectional dispersion that rises with the level and the variance of the inflation rate; and (iv) predictability of forecast errors at different horizons by means of the spread between the short- and long-term variance of inflation. We find empirically that these patterns are present in inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. A constant bias component, not explained by asymmetric loss and rational expectations, is required to explain the shift in the sign of the bias observed for a substantial portion of forecasters around 1982.

Download or read book Disagreement about the Inflation Outlook written by Sylvain Leduc and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Sources of Disagreement in Inflation Forecasts written by Pierre L. Siklos and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper documents empirically and analyzes theoretically the responses of disaggregated prices to aggregate technology and monetary policy shocks. Based on the price data of US personal consumption expenditure, we find that disaggregated price responses have features across shocks and across sectors that are difficult to explain using standard multi-sector sticky price models. In terms of shocks, a substantial fraction of disaggregated prices initially rise in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock, while most prices fall immediately in response to an aggregate technological improvement. In terms of sectors, the disaggregated price responses are correlated weakly with the frequency of price changes. To reconcile these observations, we extend the standard model. We find that the cost channel of monetary policy and cross-sectional heterogeneity in real rigidity are possible avenues in accounting for these facts."--Prelim. p.

Download or read book Measuring Disagreement in UK Consumer and Central Bank Inflation Forecasts written by Richhild Moessner and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a new perspective on disagreement in inflation expectations by examining the full probability distributions of UK consumer inflation forecasts based on an adaptive bootstrap multimodality test. Furthermore, we compare the inflation forecasts of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with those of UK consumers, for which we use data from the 2001-2007 February GfK NOP consumer surveys. Our analysis indicates substantial disagreement among UK consumers, and between the MPC and consumers, concerning one-year-ahead inflation forecasts. Such disagreement persisted throughout the sample, with no signs of convergence, consistent with consumers' inflation expectations not being "well-anchored" in the sense of matching the central bank's expectations. UK consumers had far more diverse views about future inflation than the MPC. It is possible that the MPC enjoyed certain information advantages which allowed it to have a narrower range of inflation forecasts.

Download or read book Are Inflation Targets Good Inflation Forecasts written by Marie Diron and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors show that quantified inflation objectives, which have been adopted by many industrialized countries, can be used as rule-of-thumb forecasting devices. Remarkably, they yield smaller forecast errors than widely used forecasting models and the forecasts of professional experts. Tables and figures.

Download or read book Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation written by Damjan Pfajfar and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We establish several stylized facts about the behavior of individual uncertainty and disagreement between individuals when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. Subjects correctly perceive the underlying inflation uncertainty in only 60% of cases, which can be interpreted as the overconfidence bias. Determinants of individual uncertainty, disagreement among forecasters and properties of aggregate distribution are analyzed. We find that the interquartile range of the aggregate distribution has the highest correlation within ation variability; however the average confidence interval performs best in a forecasting exercise. Allowing subjects to insert asymmetric confidence intervals results in wider upper intervals than lower intervals on average, thus perceiving higher uncertainty with respect to inflation increases. In different treatments we study the influence of different monetary policy designs on the formation of confidence bounds. Inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of intervals than inflation forecast targeting.

Download or read book Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty written by William A. Bomberger and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents evidence from the Livingston survey of inflation forecasts that forecaster disagreement provides a useful measure of forecast uncertainty. The evidence is analogous to the evidence for ARCH effects. Disagreement at the time of the forecast has a large positive effect on the conditional variance of the subsequent forecast error. As a conditioning variable, forecaster disagreement dominates ARCH for both survey errors and the error terms in Engle's quarterly model of inflation. As measured by the resulting conditional variances, disagreement indicates larger and more variable levels of uncertainty for the 1946-94 period.