Download or read book Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies written by Mr.Richard Hemming and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05-23 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent crises in Argentina and Turkey illustrate the continuing importance of fiscal problems in precipitating financial crises, and whatever their cause, financial crises always have important fiscal dimensions. market economies, particularly with regards to the fiscal causes of crises; fiscal vulnerability indicators which can help to predict crises; whether fiscal variables explain the severity of crises; and the fiscal consequences of crises. The study uses a large set of fiscal variables for 29 emerging market economies over the period 1970-2000; as well as detailed case studies of 11 recent crises in emerging market economies to examine some of the structural and institutional dimensions of fiscal vulnerability.

Download or read book Assessing Financial Vulnerability written by Morris Goldstein and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 2000 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.

Download or read book A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth Fiscal and Financial Crises written by Mr.Suman S Basu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-14 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes a suite of early warning models to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises in advanced economies and emerging markets. We estimate separate signal-extraction models for each type of crisis and sample of countries, and we use our results to generate “histories of vulnerabilities” for countries, regions, and the world. For the global financial crisis, our models report that vulnerabilities in advanced economies were rooted in the bursting of leveraged bubbles, while vulnerabilities in emerging markets stemmed from lengthy booms in credit and asset prices combined with growing weaknesses in the corporate and external sectors.

Download or read book Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 540 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the late 1990s, economic and financial crises raged through East Asia, devastating economies that had previously been considered among the strongest in the developing world. The crises eventually spread to Russia, Turkey, and Latin America, and impacted the economies of many industrialized nations as well. In today's increasingly interdependent world, finding ways to reduce the risk of future crises—and to improve the management of crises when they occur—has become an international policy challenge of paramount importance. This book rises to that challenge, presenting accessible papers and commentaries on the topic not only from leading academic economists, but also from high-ranking government officials (in both industrial and developing nations), senior policymakers at international institutions, and major financial investors. Six non-technical papers, each written by a specialist in the topic, provide essential economic background, introducing sections on exchange rate regimes, financial policies, industrial country policies, IMF stabilization policies, IMF structural programs, and creditor relations. Next, personal statements from the major players give firsthand accounts of what really went on behind the scenes during the crises, giving us a rare glimpse into how international economic policy decisions are actually made. Finally, wide-ranging discussions and debates sparked by these papers and statements are summarized at the end of each section. The result is an indispensable overview of the key issues at work in these crises, written by the people who move markets and reshape economies, and accessible to not just economists and policymakers, but also to educated general readers. Contributors: Montek S. Ahluwalia, Domingo F. Cavallo, William R. Cline, Andrew Crockett, Michael P. Dooley, Sebastian Edwards, Stanley Fischer, Arminio Fraga, Jeffrey Frankel, Jacob Frenkel, Timothy F. Geithner, Morris Goldstein, Paul Keating, Mervyn King, Anne O. Krueger, Roberto Mendoza, Frederic S. Mishkin, Guillermo Ortiz, Yung Chul Park, Nouriel Roubini, Robert Rubin, Jeffrey Sachs, Ammar Siamwalla, George Soros

Download or read book Debt Related Vulnerabilities and Financial Crises an Application of the Balance Sheet Approach to Emerging Market Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-01-07 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL

Download or read book Financial Crises written by Gerard Caprio and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2005-12-06 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Brookings Institution Press and World Bank Group publication Throughout the 1990s, numerous financial crises rocked the world financial sector. The Asian bubble burst, for example; Argentina and Brazil suffered currency crises; and the post-Soviet economy bottomed out in Russia. In Financial Crises, a distinguished group of economists and policy analysts examine and draw lessons from attempts to recover from past crises. They also consider some potential hazards facing the world economy in the 21st century and discuss ways to avoid them and minimize the severity of any future downturn. This important new volume emerges from the seventh annual conference on emerging markets finance, cosponsored and organized by the World Bank and the Brookings Institution. In the book, noted experts address the following questions: How effective were post-crisis policies in Latin America, Eastern Europe, and East and Central Asia? Where do international financial markets stand ten years after the worldwide debt crisis? How can the provision of financial services resume vigorously, yet safely? What are the viable policy options for reducing systemic financial vulnerability? What will the next emerging-market financial crisis look like? Will lessons learned from past experiences help to avoid future disasters? How can nations reform their pension systems to deal with retirement challenges in the 21st century?

Download or read book Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress written by Mr.Emanuele Baldacci and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events. Two aggregate indices are calculated: an index of fiscal vulnerability and an index of fiscal stress. Results show that both indices are elevated for advanced economies, reflecting unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures. In emerging economies, solvency risks are lower, but the composition of public debt remains a source of risk and the fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis.

Download or read book Predicting Fiscal Crises written by Ms.Svetlana Cerovic and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-03 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce and based on small samples of advanced and emerging markets, raising doubts about the robustness of the results. Using a larger sample, our analysis shows that both nonfiscal (external and internal imbalances) and fiscal variables help predict crises among advanced and emerging economies. Our models performed well in out-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries, which had been overlooked in the literature.

Download or read book The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets written by MissMali Chivakul and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of the recent global crisis on emerging market economies (EMs). Our cross-country analysis shows that the impact of the crisis was more pronounced in those EMs that had initial weaker fundamentals and greater financial and trade linkages. This effect is observed along a number of dimensions, such as growth, stock market performance, sovereign spreads, and credit growth. This paper also shows that during this crisis, pre-crisis reserve holdings helped to mitigate the initial growth collapse. This finding contrasts with other studies that fail to find a significant relationship between reserves and the growth decline. This paper argues that our preferred measure of impact is a more accurate reflection of the true impact of the crisis on EMs.

Download or read book Financial Crises in Emerging Markets written by Reuven Glick and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-04-23 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essays in this volume analyze causes of financial crises in emerging markets and different policy responses.

Download or read book Fiscal Crises written by Mrs.Kerstin Gerling and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-04-03 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies. The data sheds some light on policies and economic dynamics around crises. LIDCs, which are usually seen as more vulnerable to shocks, appear to suffer the least in crisis periods. Surprisingly, advanced economies face greater turbulence (growth declines sharply in the first two years of the crisis), with half of them experiencing economic contractions. Fiscal policy is usually procyclical as countries curtail expenditure growth when economic activity weakens. We also find that the decline in economic growth is magnified if accompanied by a financial crisis.

Download or read book External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies written by Mr.Christian B. Mulder and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-07-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis episodes can be well explained by a parsimonious set of core fundamentals and liquidity related variables; and (iii) the presence of an IMF-supported program significantly reduced the depth of crises. The results suggest that as a rule of thumb countries should hold reserves to the tune of short-term debt to avoid contagion-related crises, provided their current deficits are modest and their real effective exchange rates are not significantly misaligned.

Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Download or read book Measuring Potential Vulnerabilities in Emerging Market Economies written by John Hawkins and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes some experiments with the construction of relatively simple indices which summarise in a systematic and objective way information about emerging economies currently under pressure in financial markets and those vulnerable to such pressure in the future. A survey of the literature suggests financial crises are typically preceded by overvalued exchange rates, inadequate international reserves, recessions and excessive credit growth. These indicators and others, such as short-term external debt, which appear more important in recent crises are included in the summary indices of vulnerability. The vulnerability indices are shown to have modest predictive power for the pressure index but are far from conclusive in themselves.

Download or read book Financial Crises in Successful Emerging Economies written by Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2004-02-18 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises in emerging economies are very different today than they were in the past. Between 1940 and the 1970s, such traumas involved large fiscal deficits, repressed domestic financial systems, and balance of payments situations that were associated with a sharp worsening of terms of trade. In recent years, however, a "new variety" of crisis has evolved in Asia and Latin America. Many of the emerging economies that have experienced financial trauma have been considered very successful until the crises explode. This collection focuses on such economies. The five contributors provide policy-oriented analysis that seeks to identify crucial variables that affect the probability or intensity of crisis. José Antonio Ocampo (ECLAC) and Ricardo Ffrench-Davis explore the variables that play a part in determining whether a financial crisis is likely to occur. They analyze "vulnerability zones" for certain key variables—such as net liquid external liabilities, current-account deficits, and real exchange rates—and examine how and why capital surges have contributed to worsen marcoeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies. Manuel Agosin (University of Chile) draws a parallel between Korea and Taiwan, showing how the two countries had similar histories between the mid-1960s and the early 1990s, then followed different paths during the 1990s. Ricardo Ffrench-Davis (ECLAC) concentrates on Chile's experience with three "positive" financial shocks: in the 1970s, in 1991-94, and in 1995-97. Jaime Ros (Notre Dame University) explores contrasting situations in Mexico in 1991-94 and 1996-97, and discusses the variables that explain the marked differences between the two episodes. Ricardo Ffrench-Davis is principal regional adviser at ECLAC and co-founder of the Center for Economic Research on Latin America (CIEPLAN). He is the author or editor of fifteen books on international economics, development, strategies, foreign financial, and Latin American economies, including Reforming the Reforms: Macro, Trade, Finance (Palgrave/Macmillan, 1999).

Download or read book Debt Related Vulnerabilities and Financial Crises written by Mr.Brad Setser and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-10-24 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis of currency and maturity mismatches in sectoral balance sheets has increasingly become a regular element in the IMF’s tool kit for surveillance in emerging market countries. This paper describes this so-called balance sheet approach and shows how it can be applied to detect vulnerabilities and shape policy advice. It also provides a broad-brushed overview of how balance sheet vulnerabilities have evolved over the past decade and cites a number of case studies.

Download or read book Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Michael P. Dooley and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The management of financial crises in emerging markets is a vital and high-stakes challenge in an increasingly global economy. For this reason, it's also a highly contentious issue in today's public policy circles. In this book, leading economists-many of whom have also participated in policy debates on these issues-consider how best to reduce the frequency and cost of such crises. The contributions here explore the management process from the beginning of a crisis to the long-term effects of the techniques used to minimize it. The first three chapters focus on the earliest responses and the immediate defense of a currency under attack, exploring whether unnecessary damage to economies can be avoided by adopting the right response within the first few days of a financial crisis. Next, contributors examine the adjustment programs that follow, considering how to design these programs so that they shorten the recovery phase, encourage economic growth, and minimize the probability of future difficulties. Finally, the last four papers analyze the actual effects of adjustment programs, asking whether they accomplish what they are designed to do-and whether, as many critics assert, they impose disproportionate costs on the poorest members of society. Recent high-profile currency crises have proven not only how harmful they can be to neighboring economies and trading partners, but also how important policy responses can be in determining their duration and severity. Economists and policymakers will welcome the insightful evaluations in this important volume, and those of its companion, Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey A. Frankel's Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets.