Download or read book Fiscal Policy and the Real Exchange Rate written by Mr.Santanu Chatterjee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-02-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Government spending on infrastructure has recently increased sharply in many emerging-market economies. This paper examines the mechanism through which public infrastructure spending affects the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Using a two-sector dependent open economy model with intersectoral adjustment costs, we show that government spending generates a non-monotonic U-shaped adjustment path for the real exchange rate with sharp intertemporal trade-offs. The effect of government spending on the real exchange rate depends critically on (i) the composition of public spending, (ii) the underlying financing policy, (iii) the intensity of private capital in production, and (iv) the relative productivity of public infrastructure. In deriving these results, the model also identifies conditions under which the predictions of the neoclassical open economy model can be reconciled with empirical regularities, namely the intertemporal relationship between government spending, private consumption, and the real exchange rate.

Download or read book Fiscal Adjustment and the Real Exchange Rate written by K. M. Matin and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1992 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Fiscal Imbalances Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate written by E. Murat Ucer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-01-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the links between fiscal policy, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate in Turkey since the late 1980s. After an overview of recent macroeconomic developments in Turkey, a vector autoregression model is estimated linking government spending, interest rate differentials, capital inflows, and the temporary component of the real exchange rate. Positive shocks to government spending and capital inflows lead to an appreciation of the temporary component of the real exchange rate, whereas positive shocks to the uncovered interest rate differential lead to a capital inflow and an appreciation of the temporary component of the real exchange rate. The findings highlight the role of fiscal adjustment in restoring macroeconomic stability.

Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets written by Marialuz Moreno Badia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-10 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of emerging markets have experienced substantial real exchange rate appreciation in recent years, generating concerns about competitiveness and prompting policymakers to respond with a combination of mitigating policies. This paper shows that fiscal policy can play a role in alleviating these pressures. Using a sample of 28 emerging market economies over 1983-2011, we estimate a dynamic model of the real exchange rate and find that a permanent fiscal adjustment may reduce appreciation pressures over the long term. Furthermore, the composition of public spending matters, with reductions in current spending playing a key role. To illustrate the importance of these findings, the paper focuses on the case of Brazil. Our results suggest that maintaining fiscal discipline while increasing public investment in Brazil is likely to ease real appreciation pressures, highlighting the importance of tackling long-standing budget rigidities.

Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Imperfect Asset Substitutability written by Mr.José Saúl Lizondo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1993-04-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a model of an economy that uses nominal exchange rate policy to keep the real exchange rate constant at a certain target level, under imperfect asset substitutability. The paper discusses the determinants of inflation under such a policy, and examines the consequences of exogenous and policy-induced shocks on inflation, the external accounts, and the fiscal accounts. The shocks considered include changes in the real exchange rate target, changes in fiscal policy, changes in foreign interest rates, and open market sales of public sector domestic bonds.

Download or read book Real Exchange Rates Devaluation and Adjustment written by Chief Economist Latin America and Caribbean Region Sebastian Edwards and published by . This book was released on 1989-08-04 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment provides a unified theoretical and empirical investigation of exchange rate policy and performance in scores of developing countries. It develops a theory of equilibrium and disequilibrium real exchange rates, takes up the question of why devaluations are the most controversial policy measures in poorer nations, and discusses what determines their success or failure. In a lucid fashion, Edwards organizes vast amounts of data on exchange rates - both real and nominal - and discusses their effect on net trade balances, net asset positions, output growth, real wages, and rates of price inflation, analyzed both in time series and through cross country comparisons. Edwards's investigation singles out 39 major devaluation episodes for before and after comparative analyses while simultaneously isolating the separate effects of other important explanatory variables, such as bank credit expansion and changes in the terms of trade. The first part of the book focuses on theoretical models of devaluation and real exchange rate behavior in less developed countries. Special attention is paid to intertemporal channels in the transmission of disturbances. The second part uses a large cross country data set to analyze the way the real exchange rate has behaved in these nations. The data are also used to test the implications of several theories of real exchange rate determination. The third part analyzes actual devaluation experiences between 1962 and 1982. These chapters examine the events leading to a balance of payments crisis and to a devaluation, exploring the relation between macroeconomic disequilibrium, and the imposition of trade and exchange controls. They also investigate the effect of nominal devaluation on key variables such as the balance of payments, the current account, the real exchange rate, real output real wages, and income distribution.

Download or read book Intertemporal Adjustment and Fiscal Policy Under a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime written by Marcel Aloy and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2008 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The paper presents a dynamic model for small to medium open economies operating under a fixed exchange rate regime. The model provides a partial explanation of the channels through which fiscal and monetary policy affects the real exchange rate. An empirical investigation is conducted for the case of Argentina during the currency board period of 1991-2001. Empirical estimates show that fiscal policy may indeed be an efficient instrument for promoting macroeconomic stability insofar as it encourages convergence toward long-run equilibrium and alters the long-term balance between exports and consumption, both private and public. The simulation applied to Argentina shows that if the share of public spending in the economy is higher than the share of imports, an increase in the tax rate will stimulate capital stock slightly, at least in the short term, and depreciate the real effective exchange rate. In the long run, the fiscal policy affects the value of the real exchange rate and consequently external competitiveness.

Download or read book Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In spite of the attention paid exchange rates in recent economic debates on developing countries, relatively few studies have systematically analyzed in detail the various ramifications of exchange rate policy in these countries. In this new volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research, leading economists use rigorous models to tackle various exchange rate issues, while also illuminating policy implications that emerge from their analyses. The volume, divided into four main sections, addresses: the role of exchange rates in stabilization programs and the adjustment process; the importance of exchange rate policy during liberalization reform in developing countries; exchange rate problems relevant and unique to developing countries, illustrated by case studies; and the problems defining, measuring, and identifying determinants of real exchange rates. Authors of individual papers examine the relation between commercial policies and exchange rates, the role of exchange rate policy in stabilization programs, the effectiveness of devaluations as a policy tool, and the interaction between exchange rate terms of trade an capital flow. This research will not only prove crucial to our understanding of the role of exchange rates in developing countries, but will clearly set the standard for future work in the field.

Download or read book Targeting the Real Exchange Rate written by Mr.Guillermo Calvo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-02-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be attained temporarily. This can be achieved by means of higher inflation and/or higher real interest rates, depending on the degree of capital mobility. Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia supports the model’s prediction that undervalued real exchange rates are associated with higher inflation.

Download or read book The Economics of Adjustment and Growth written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by La Editorial, UPR. This book was released on 2004-09-30 with total page 794 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a systematic and coherent framework for understanding the interactions between the micro and macro dimensions of economic adjustment policies; that is, it explores short-run macroeconomic management and structural adjustment policies aimed at promoting economic growth. It emphasizes the importance of structural microeconomic characteristics in the transmission of policy shocks and the response of the economy to adjustment policies. It has particular relevance to the economics of developing countries. The book is directed to economists interested in an overview of the economics of reform; economists in international organizations, such as the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank, dealing with development; and economists in developing countries. It is also a text for advanced undergraduate students pursuing a degree in economic policy and management and students in political science and public policy.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy and the Real Exchange Rate written by Santanu Chatterjee and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the mechanisms through which government spending affects the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Using a two-sector dependent open economy model with intersectoral mobility costs for private capital, we show that public investment generates a (i) non-monotonic U-shaped adjustment path for the real exchange rate with sharp intertemporal trade-offs, and (ii) a crowding-in of private consumption, consistent with stylized facts. The effects of public consumption, however, are in sharp contrast to those of public investment. The effect of government spending on the real exchange rate depends critically on (i) the sectoral composition of public spending, (ii) the underlying financing policy, (iii) the sectoral intensity of private capital in production, (iv) the relative sectoral productivity of public infrastructure, (v) the elasticity of substitution in production, and (vi) intersectoral mobility costs for capital. In deriving these results, we identify conditions under which the predictions of the neoclassical open economy model can be reconciled with empirical regularities. Our results underscore the importance of decoupling the effects of government investment from government consumption in understanding the relationship between fiscal policy and the real exchange rate.

Download or read book Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments written by Luisa Lambertini and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper characterizes monetary and exchange-rate policies during successful and unsuccessful fiscal adjustments by analyzing the OECD economies over the period 1970 to 1998. We find that successful adjustments are almost always preceded by large nominal and real exchange rate depreciations while unsuccessful adjustments are preceded by revaluations and followed by depreciations. The extreme adjustments of Ireland and Denmark in the 1990s fit this pattern of depreciation for success very closely. Early depreciation is a significant and quantitatively important predictor of the persistence of adjustment: each 1 percent of depreciation in the two years preceding a fiscal adjustment leads to approximately 2 percent increase in the probability of success. Since the size of the typical pre-adjustment depreciation is 5%, this is an important effect. When compared to an indicator of the composition of the fiscal adjustment, the reliance on spending cuts, the two variables have similar quantitative impacts on the likelihood of persistence. Our results are robust to alternative definitions of the depreciation period, the persistence of the adjustment, and whether we use effective, DM or US$ exchange rates. Monetary policy does not play a significant role in fiscal adjustments. Our results suggest that attaining persistent fiscal adjustment within EMU is likely to become a more "costly" endeavor than it was beforehand, as EMU members have adopted a single currency and therefore abandoned the use of exchange rate policies vis-a-vis each other.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy Intercountry Adjustment and the Real Exchange Rate Within Europe written by Christopher Allsopp and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper argues that an improved fiscal policy process might result in improved macroeconomic performance within Europe. Within EMU, a country may have difficulty ensuring stability in the face of asymmetric shocks; the response may be unstable, or, even if not, the real exchange rate might overshoot. In this context, the rules of the SGP may interfere with the control of inflation control, with the short-run stabilisation of demand, and also with the longer term adjustment of intra-European real exchange rates. We recommend using fiscal policy to stabilise inflation and also to target the real exchange rate rather than deficits or debt. Such a policy would require a more active use of fiscal policy.

Download or read book Boom Bust Cycle Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the behavior of expenditure policy during boom-bust in commodity price cycles, and its implication for real exchange rate movements. To do so, we introduce a Dutch disease model with downward rigidities in government spending to revenue shock. This model leads to a decoupling between real exchange rate and commodity price movement during busts. We test our model's theoretical predictions and underlying assumptions using panel data for 32 oil-producing countries over the period 1992 to 2009. Results are threefold. First, we find that change in current spending have a stronger impact on the change in real exchange rate compared to capital spending. Second, we find that current spending is downwardly sticky, but increases in boom time, and conversely for capital spending. Third, we find limited evidence that fiscal rules have helped reduce the degree of responsiveness of current spending during booms. In contrast, we find evidence that fiscal rules are associated with a significant reduction in capital expenditure during busts while responsiveness to boosts is more muted. This raises concerns about potential adverse consequences of this asymmetry on economic performance in oil-producing countries.

Download or read book Real Effects of Exchange rate based Stabilization written by Sergio Rebelo and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a unified analytical framework to assess, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the relevance of the different hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the real effects of exchange rate-based stabilizations. The four major hypotheses analyzed are: (i) the supply-side effects associated with an inflation decline; (ii) the perception that the exchange rate peg is temporary; (iii) the fiscal adjustments that tend to accompany the peg; and (iv) the existence of nominal rigidities in wages or prices.

Download or read book Two Views of the Real Exchange Rate in International Adjustment written by Yoonbai Kim and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Fiscal Imbalances Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate written by Pierre-Richard Agenor and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the links between fiscal policy, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate in Turkey since the late 1980s. After an overview of recent macroeconomic developments in Turkey, a vector autoregression model is estimated linking government spending, interest rate differentials, capital inflows, and the temporary component of the real exchange rate. Positive shocks to government spending and capital inflows lead to an appreciation of the temporary component of the real exchange rate, whereas positive shocks to the uncovered interest rate differential lead to a capital inflow and an appreciation of the temporary component of the real exchange rate. The findings highlight the role of fiscal adjustment in restoring macroeconomic stability.