Download or read book Firms Optimism and Pessimism written by Rüdiger Bachmann and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are firms' expectations systematically too optimistic or too pessimistic? Does it matter? We use micro data from the West German manufacturing subset of the IFO Business Climate Survey to infer quarterly production changes at the firm level and combine them with production expectations over a quarterly horizon in the same survey to construct series of quantitative firm-specific expectation errors. We find that depending on the details of the empirical strategy at least 6 percent and at most 34 percent of firms systematically over- or underpredict their one-quarter-ahead upcoming production. In a simple neoclassical heterogeneous-firm model these expectational biases lead to factor misallocations that cause welfare losses which in the worst case are comparable to conventional estimates of the welfare costs of business cycles fluctuations. In more conservative calibrations the welfare losses are even smaller.
Download or read book The Optimism Bias written by Tali Sharot and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2011-06-14 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Psychologists have long been aware that most people maintain an irrationally positive outlook on life—but why? Turns out, we might be hardwired that way. In this absorbing exploration, Tali Sharot—one of the most innovative neuroscientists at work today—demonstrates that optimism may be crucial to human existence. The Optimism Bias explores how the brain generates hope and what happens when it fails; how the brains of optimists and pessimists differ; why we are terrible at predicting what will make us happy; how emotions strengthen our ability to recollect; how anticipation and dread affect us; how our optimistic illusions affect our financial, professional, and emotional decisions; and more. Drawing on cutting-edge science, The Optimism Bias provides us with startling new insight into the workings of the brain and the major role that optimism plays in determining how we live our lives.
Download or read book Optimism Pessimism and Short Term Fluctuations written by Gabriel Di Bella and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-05 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.
Download or read book Cognitive optimism and professional pessimism in the large firm practice of law written by Catherine G. O'Grady and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Economics of Pessimism and Optimism written by Kiyohiko G. Nishimura and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-13 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book to investigate individual’s pessimistic and optimistic prospects for the future and their economic consequences based on sound mathematical foundations. The book focuses on fundamental uncertainty called Knightian uncertainty, where the probability distribution governing uncertainty is unknown, and it provides the reader with methods to formulate how pessimism and optimism act in an economy in a strict and unified way. After presenting decision-theoretic foundations for prudent behaviors under Knightian uncertainty, the book applies these ideas to economic models that include portfolio inertia, indeterminacy of equilibria in the Arrow-Debreu economy and in a stochastic overlapping-generations economy, learning, dynamic asset-pricing models, search, real options, and liquidity preferences. The book then proceeds to characterizations of pessimistic (ε-contaminated) and optimistic (ε-exuberant) behaviors under Knightian uncertainty and people’s inherent pessimism (surprise aversion) and optimism (surprise loving). Those characterizations are shown to be useful in understanding several observed behaviors in the global financial crisis and in its aftermath. The book is highly recommended not only to researchers who wish to understand the mechanism of how pessimism and optimism affect economic phenomena, but also to policy makers contemplating effective economic policies whose success delicately hinges upon people’s mindsets in the market. Kiyohiko Nishimura is Professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) and Professor Emeritus and Distinguished Project Research Fellow of the Center for Advanced Research in Finance at The University of Tokyo. Hiroyuki Ozaki is Professor of Economics at Keio University.
Download or read book An Analysis of Optimistic and Pessimistic Language in Earnings Press Releases written by Marius Rombach and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2011-10 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2011 in the subject Computer Science - Commercial Information Technology, University of Freiburg (Chair of Information Systems Research), language: English, abstract: Earnings press releases are the major news event of the season for companies and investors, analysts, financial media and the market. As framework of investor relations (IR) they communicate the financial performance in numerical and narrative forms. For example, earnings press releases are obligatory for firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). There are several rules and guidelines how to prepare them. An accurate earnings press release contains, apart from analyses of operating results, historical data, positive and negative factors affecting key financial indicators, a realistic and truthful forecast of future quarters. Whereas numerous studies focus on interpretation of numerical forms in earnings press releases, this paper examines the influence of optimistic and pessimistic language in earnings press releases on future firm performance with several studies. It also opposes different approaches to measure the tone. Based on the study "Beyond the Numbers: An Analysis of Optimistic and Pessimistic Language in Earnings Press Releases" published by Davis, Piger and Sedor the paper presents a textual analysis approach with DICTION 5.0. The authors have been the first scientists so far to examine the role language plays in the credible communication of information to investors. The dictionary-based content analysis program DICTION 5.0 is able to identify subtle aspects of language. The systematic textual analysis techniques are based on pre-existing search rules. It is able to analyze a larger sample size than possible by human coding or manual reading. Apart from this, statistical methods - like the naïve Bayesian learning algorithm, reducing a given sentence to a list of words - are introduced and compared with each other. Given the different approaches to analy
Download or read book Production and Hedging with Optimism and Pessimism Under Ambiguity written by Donald D. Lien and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the optimal production and hedging decisions of a competitive firm holding optimism and pessimism under price ambiguity. We show that the separation theorem remains intact as the firm's optimal output level depends neither on the output price distribution nor on the firm's preferences. Furthermore, the validity of the full-hedging theorem depends on the extent to which the firm is optimistic about the uncertain output price. Notably, we identify a threshold of the firm's optimism level above which it is never optimal for the firm to full-hedge even when an unbiased hedging opportunity is available. Our results suggest how a firm's optimism level and ambiguity degree affect its production and hedging behavior and provide a novel explanation for why firms in practice shy away from full-hedging.
Download or read book The Rhythmic Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism written by L. Peter Cogan and published by New York : William-Frederick Press. This book was released on 1969 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Firm Expectations and Economic Activity written by Zeno Enders and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We assess how survey expectations impact production and pricing decisions on the basis of a large panel of German firms. We identify the causal effect of expectations by matching firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. The probability to raise (lower) production is 15 percentage points higher for optimistic (pessimistic) firms than for neutral firms. Optimistic firms are also more likely to raise prices. In a second step, we find optimism and pessimism to matter even if they turn out to be incorrect ex-post. Lastly, we quantify the contribution of incorrect optimism and pessimism to aggregate fluctuations.
Download or read book The Foundations of Positive and Normative Economics written by Andrew Caplin and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-06-25 with total page 405 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Foundations of Positive and Normative Economics: A Handbook is the first book in a new series by Andrew Caplin and Andrew Schotter. There is currently no guide available on the rapidly changing methodological frontiers of the field of economics. Economists have been introducing new theories and new sources of data at a remarkable rate in recent years, and there are widely divergent views both on how productive these expansions have been in the past, and how best to make progress in the future. The speed of these changes has left economists ill at ease, and has created a backlash against new methods. The series will debate these critical issues, allowing proponents of a particular research method to present proposals in a safe yet critical context, with alternatives being clarified. This first volume, written by some of the most prominent researchers in the discipline, reflects the challenges that are opened by new research opportunities. The goal of the current volume and the series it presages, is to formally open a dialog on methodology. The editors' conviction is that such a debate will rebound to the benefit of social science in general, and economics in particular. The issues under discussion strike to the very heart of the social scientific enterprise. This work is of tremendous importance to all who are interested in the contributions that academic research can make not only to our scientific understanding, but also to matters of policy.
Download or read book Pessimism a History and a Criticism written by James Sully and published by . This book was released on 1877 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Hope without Optimism written by Terry Eagleton and published by University of Virginia Press. This book was released on 2015-09-09 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In his latest book, Terry Eagleton, one of the most celebrated intellects of our time, considers the least regarded of the virtues. His compelling meditation on hope begins with a firm rejection of the role of optimism in life’s course. Like its close relative, pessimism, it is more a system of rationalization than a reliable lens on reality, reflecting the cast of one’s temperament in place of true discernment. Eagleton turns then to hope, probing the meaning of this familiar but elusive word: Is it an emotion? How does it differ from desire? Does it fetishize the future? Finally, Eagleton broaches a new concept of tragic hope, in which this old virtue represents a strength that remains even after devastating loss has been confronted. In a wide-ranging discussion that encompasses Shakespeare’s Lear, Kierkegaard on despair, Aquinas, Wittgenstein, St. Augustine, Kant, Walter Benjamin’s theory of history, and a long consideration of the prominent philosopher of hope, Ernst Bloch, Eagleton displays his masterful and highly creative fluency in literature, philosophy, theology, and political theory. Hope without Optimism is full of the customary wit and lucidity of this writer whose reputation rests not only on his pathbreaking ideas but on his ability to engage the reader in the urgent issues of life. Page-Barbour Lectures
Download or read book Optimism Pessimism written by Edward Chin-Ho Chang and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Optimism Or Pessimism written by Henry Frank and published by . This book was released on 1925 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essential Quotes for Scientists and Engineers written by Konstantin K. Likharev and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-27 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together about 2,500 quotations on various topics of interest to scientists and engineers, including students of STEM disciplines. Careful curation of the material by the editor provides the reader with far greater value than can be obtained by searching the internet. The quotes have been selected for various attributes including: importance of topic, depth of insight, and - not least - wit, with many of them satisfying all these criteria. To make sequential reading of the quotes more engaging, they are grouped into broad topical sections, and the entries within each section are organized thematically, forming quasi-continuous narrative threads. The text and authorship of each quote have been carefully verified, and the most popular cases of misquotation and misattribution are noted. The book represents a valuable resource for those writing science and engineering articles as well as being a joy to read in its own right.
Download or read book Learned Optimism written by Martin Seligman and published by Hachette UK. This book was released on 2018-04-19 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the bestselling author of Authentic Happiness Known as the father of the science of positive psychology, Martin E.P. Seligman draws on more than twenty years of clinical research to demonstrate how optimism enhances the quality of life, and how anyone can learn to practice it. Offering many simple techniques, Dr. Seligman explains how to break an 'I give up' habit, develop a more constructive explanatory style for interpreting your behaviour, and experience the benefits of a more positive interior dialogue. These skills can help break up depression, boost your immune system, better develop your potential, and make you happier. With generous additional advice on how to encourage optimistic behaviour at school, at work and in children, Learned Optimism is both profound and practical, making it highly valuable for every phase of life.
Download or read book Simply Brilliant written by William C. Taylor and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2016-09-20 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'There's no such thing as an average or old-fashioned business, just average or old-fashioned ways to do business. In fact, the opportunity to reach for extraordinary may be most pronounced in settings that have been far too ordinary for far too long' Far away from Silicon Valley, in familiar, traditional, even unglamorous fields, ordinary people are unleashing extraordinary advances that amaze customers, energize employees, and create huge economic value. Their secret? They understand that inventing the future doesn't just mean designing mobile apps and developing virtual-reality headsets. In Simply Brilliant, the visionary co-founder of Fast Company William C. Taylor goes behind the scenes at some of the unsung organizations that are revolutionizing their otherwise humdrum fields. These unlikely agents of change range from a parking garage that also serves as a wedding venue, to a military insurance company that puts salespeople through simulated overseas deployment. The message is both simple and subversive: in a time of wrenching disruptions and exhilarating leaps, of unrelenting turmoil and unlimited promise, the future is open to everybody. Simply Brilliant illustrates how breakthrough creativity and breakaway performance can be summoned in all industries, if leaders dare to reimagine what's possible in their fields.
