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Book Assessing Some Models of the Impact of Financial Stress Upon Business Cycles

Download or read book Assessing Some Models of the Impact of Financial Stress Upon Business Cycles written by Adrian Rodney Pagan and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the wake of the global financial crisis a considerable amount of research has focused on integrating financial factors into macroeconomic models. Two common approaches for doing so include the financial accelerator and collateralised lending, examples of which are Gilchrist, Ortiz and Zakrajˇsek (2009) and Iacoviello (2005). This paper proposes that two useful ways to evaluate such models are by focusing on their implications for business cycle characteristics and whether the models can match several stylised facts about the impact of financial conditions. One of these facts is that credit crises produce long-duration recessions. We find that while in the Gilchrist et al (2009) model financial factors can impact on particular cycles, they do little change to the average cycle characteristics. Some, but not all, of the stylised facts are captured by the model.

Book Financial Stress and the Business Cycle

Download or read book Financial Stress and the Business Cycle written by David Gauthier and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this thesis, I investigate the implications of financial stress for economic fluctuations along several dimensions. What is it that makes financial crisis so disruptive? What is the role of the banking system in their propagation? How to identify and forecast financial distress? Each chapter brings new elements to complement the literature on these broad questions. In the first chapter of this thesis, written together with Yvan Bécard, we estimate a general equilibrium model where banks can adjust their lending standards for households and firms depending on their ability to liquidate the collateral of their borrowers. We find that collateral shocks, shocks that modify the liquidity of banks' collateral, explain most of the US business cycle fluctuations for investment, consumption, loan volumes, and the credit spreads. In addition, the collateral shocks resemble measures of bank lending standard as observed over the past 30 years for households and firms. In the second chapter, I develop a model where the banking system is characterized by monopolistic competition and used to study the role of bank competition in the propagation of financial crises. I find that low competition in the banking system can dampen the impact of financial stress in situations where monetary policy is impeded by the ZLB. In the last chapter, I study the evolution of firm debt choices in response to different types of aggregate shocks. I find that only financial shocks imply opposite movements in bond and loan volumes. I use this result with sign-restriction methods to identify financial shocks in a VAR model. I find that financial shocks identified with bond and loan series explain a large share of the business cycle and especially the two last recessions. I also use the identification strategy to recover a measure of financial stress. This measure allows predicting the evolution of corporate bond spreads.

Book Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle

Download or read book Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle written by Marzie Taheri Sanjani and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-23 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with an explicit financial intermediary sector. Having measures of financial stress, such as the spread between lending and borrowing, enables the model to capture the impact of the financial crisis in a more direct and efficient way. The model fits US post-war macroeconomic data well, and shows that financial shocks play a greater role in explaining the volatility of macroeconomic variables than marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) shocks.

Book Financial Stress and Economic Dynamics

Download or read book Financial Stress and Economic Dynamics written by Kirstin Hubrich and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Dynamics of Financial Stress and Economic Performance

Download or read book Dynamics of Financial Stress and Economic Performance written by Ramesh Babu Thimmaraya and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2018-09-28 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book primarily focuses on the dynamic relationship between the financial and the economic systems of twelve major economies in the world.

Book Business Cycles  Financial Conditions and Nonlinearities

Download or read book Business Cycles Financial Conditions and Nonlinearities written by Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a conceptualization of business cycle fluctuations in which the role of financial conditions and nonlinear dynamics are explicitly incorporated. We highlight the role of investment demand in driving economic fluctuations, consider its endogenous dynamic interactions with profitability and aggregate demand levels as well as financial conditions, emphasize that the sources of instability in an economy cannot be associated exclusively with the real or financial sectors, and incorporate the idea that financial conditions are both important sources of instability and possible nonlinear propagators of other sources of instability. We test the propagation mechanisms of such conceptualization using a Bayesian Threshold Vector Autoregression model for the US economy. The results support the characterization of nonlinear dynamics in the transmission of shocks since there is evidence of asymmetric responses of the variables across two different regimes of financial stress, responding more strongly during loose financial conditions.

Book Beating the Business Cycle

Download or read book Beating the Business Cycle written by Lakshman Achuthan and published by Crown Currency. This book was released on 2004-05-18 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.

Book Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Book Financial Cycles

Download or read book Financial Cycles written by Dimitris N. Chorafas and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2015-03-12 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As financial positions expand, the economy becomes more vulnerable to adverse and unexpected developments taking place outside the six to seven year business cycle. Over 50 years ago Nikolai Kondratieff developed the theory of "The Long Waves in Economic Life", which incorporated an extended cycle of innovation and upward thrust, and changed our understanding of business cycles in financial settings. Financial Cycles concentrates on two areas that have thus far been omitted from mainstream economics. The first is the impact of the longer term financial cycle; the second is the beginning of de-globalization as the world enters an era of iron-glad economic blocks. Chorafas argues that to overcome the more narrow limits of the business cycle, we need to go beyond its traditional six to seven year focus and address the longer term. This includes the building-up and running-off of economic risks characterizing the financial cycle, as well as the appreciation of forces underwriting both its growth and its decay. An ever-increasing public debt and the behavior of the banking industry are two principal reasons why the structure of analysis characterizing the previous financial cycle no longer fits present-day realities. A new methodology starts getting in shape, even if it still has to acquire political legitimacy.

Book State space Models with Regime Switching

Download or read book State space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.

Book Recession Proof Your Life  The Ultimate Guide to Financial Stability During Economic Downturns

Download or read book Recession Proof Your Life The Ultimate Guide to Financial Stability During Economic Downturns written by Luna Z. Rainstorm and published by BornIncredible.com. This book was released on 2023-01-01 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Fortify your financial future by understanding and navigating the complex world of recessions." Navigate uncertain financial waters with "Recession-Proof Your Life," a comprehensive guide to understanding, preparing for, and surviving economic downturns. Gain a thorough understanding of the history, causes, and consequences of recessions, as well as strategies to protect your finances, career, and emotional well-being. Explore the history of major recessions, such as the Great Depression and the 2008 financial crisis, and learn valuable lessons from each event. Understand the definition and indicators of a recession, as well as the economic cycles that lead to these downturns. Discover the various types of recessions, such as demand-side, supply-side, and financial crises, and learn about the impact of recessions on employment, housing, small businesses, and more. Uncover the role of government in managing recessions, as well as the influence of international recessions and globalization on the economy. Examine the psychological aspects of recessions, including fear, uncertainty, and the importance of maintaining optimism during challenging times. Learn effective strategies for surviving a recession, from budgeting and finding alternate sources of income to protecting your assets and investments. Tackle job loss and unemployment during recessions with practical coping strategies and tips for finding new employment opportunities. Adapt your business or start a new one during an economic downturn by pivoting your business model and identifying growth opportunities. Understand how recessions impact education, healthcare, mental health, social justice, and retirement. Find out how communities and governments respond to recessions, and learn about available resources and support programs. Master the art of investing during a recession, with a focus on risk management and diversification. Prepare for future recessions by learning from past experiences and embracing innovation. In "Recession-Proof Your Life," you'll find a wealth of knowledge, tips, and strategies to help you face economic uncertainty with confidence. Become financially resilient and well-prepared for any economic challenge that comes your way. Table Of Contents Introduction Explanation Of A Recession Prevalence And Impact Of Recessions Importance Of Understanding The History Of Recessions And How To Survive Them History Of Recessions: Overview Of The History Of Recessions Major Recessions Throughout History Causes And Consequences Of Past Recessions Lessons Learned From Past Recessions What Is A Recession: Definition Of A Recession Causes And Indicators Of A Recession The Impact Of A Recession On The Economy And Individuals Understanding The Difference Between A Recession And A Depression The Economic Cycle The Role Of Interest Rates In The Economic Cycle The Business Cycle And Recessions Indicators Of A Recession Leading Economic Indicators Lagging Economic Indicators Coincident Economic Indicators Types Of Recessions Demand-Side Recessions Supply-Side Recessions Financial Crises The Great Recession Of 2008 Causes Of The Great Recession The Impact Of The Great Recession Lessons Learned From The Great Recession The Impact Of Recessions On Employment Unemployment Rates During Recessions The Impact Of Recessions On Different Industries Strategies For Managing Job Loss During A Recession The Impact Of Recessions On Housing Housing Market Trends During Recessions The Impact Of Recessions On Home Values Strategies For Managing Homeownership During A Recession The Impact Of Recessions On Small Businesses The Unique Challenges Faced By Small Businesses During A Recession Strategies For Managing A Small Business During A Recession Government Programs And Assistance For Small Businesses During A Recession The Role Of Government In Managing Recessions Fiscal Policy During A Recession Monetary Policy During A Recession The Effectiveness Of Government Intervention During A Recession International Recessions And Globalization The Impact Of Recessions On International Trade The Role Of Globalization In The Spread Of Recessions Strategies For Managing The Impact Of International Recessions The Psychology Of Recessions The Impact Of Fear And Uncertainty During A Recession Strategies For Managing Anxiety During A Recession The Role Of Optimism And Hope In Recovering From A Recession Surviving A Recession: Maintaining A Budget And Reducing Expenses Finding Alternate Sources Of Income Protecting Assets And Investments Coping With The Emotional Impact Of A Recession Job Loss And Unemployment: Overview Of Job Loss And Unemployment During A Recession Strategies For Coping With Job Loss And Unemployment Finding New Employment Opportunities Managing Finances During Unemployment Practical Tips / Strategies To Reduce Debt Business And Entrepreneurship During A Recession: Overview Of Strategies For Business Survival During A Recession Pivoting Business Models To Adapt To A Recession Finding Opportunities For Growth During A Recession Starting A Business During A Recession Successful Businesses Started During Past Recessions Community And Government Response To A Recession: The Role Of International Organizations In Responding To Global Recessions Investing During A Recession The Impact Of Recessions On The Stock Market Strategies For Managing Investments During A Recession The Role Of Diversification In Managing Risk During A Recession The Impact Of Recessions On Education The Impact Of Recessions On Education Funding The Impact Of Recessions On Student Loan Debt Strategies For Managing Education During A Recession Healthcare During A Recession The Impact Of Recessions On Healthcare Funding The Impact Of Recessions On Healthcare Access Strategies For Managing Healthcare During A Recession The Impact Of Recessions On Mental Health Strategies For Managing Mental Health During A Recession The Role Of Community Support In Managing Mental Health During A Recession Recessions And Social Justice The Impact Of Recessions On Marginalized Communities Strategies For Managing The Impact Of Recessions On Social Justice The Role Of Government Policies In Addressing Social Justice During A Recession The Impact Of Recessions On Retirement The Impact Of Recessions On Retirement Savings Strategies For Managing Retirement During A Recession The Role Of Government Programs In Supporting Retirement During A Recession The Future Of Recessions Predictions For Future Recessions Strategies For Preparing For Future Recessions The Role Of Innovation In Managing Future Recessions Lessons Learned From Recessions Key Takeaways From Past Recessions Strategies For Managing Future Recessions Based On Past Experiences The Role Of Resilience In Recovering From A Recession Conclusion: Recap Of Key Points Final Thoughts On Understanding And Surviving A Recession Importance Of Being Prepared For Economic Downturns And Seeking Support When Needed. 2023 Indicators Interesting Facts Asset Bubbles Frequently Asked Questions. What Happens In A Recession? What Would A Recession Mean? What Is A Recession Vs Depression? How Long Do Recessions Last? What Is A Recession What Should You Not Do In A Recession? Who Suffers The Most During A Recession? Who Benefits In A Recession? Does Recession Mean Crash? Are We Headed For A Depression In 2023? How Do You Survive A Recession? How Do You Prepare For A Recession? What Jobs Will Be Affected By A Recession? How Long Did 2008 Recession Last? Should You Sell Before A Recession? What Will Happen If The World Goes Into Recession? Will The World Go Into Recession 2023? How Long Will The 2023 Recession Last? What To Buy In Recession? Is My Money Safe During A Recession? What Is Best To Hold In A Recession? Who Will Be Hit Hardest By Recession? Who Gets Laid Off In A Recession? What Is The Biggest Problem In A Recession? Do People Lose Money During A Recession? Do I Lose Money In A Recession? What Are The Signs Of A Recession Coming? How Long Will 2023 Recession Last? What Happens If We Go Into Recession? What Does A Recession Do To The Average Person? Who Benefits From A Recession? Who Suffers Most In A Recession? How Long Do Recessions Usually Last? How Do You Profit From A Recession? What Are The Financial Predictions For 2023? How Much Money Should You Hold In A Recession? What Is The Best Fixed Income During A Recession? What Is The Most Stable Asset In The World? Is A Recession Scary? What Are The Five Stages Of Recession? Is A Recession When You Lose Your Job? How Do I Keep My Job During A Recession? Who Does A Recession Hurt The Most? Which Jobs Are Safest In A Recession? What Happens To The Average Person During A Recession? Do People Work Harder In A Recession? What Defines A Job Recession? How Long Does A Recession Lost? Is A Recession Coming In 2023? How Do You Prepare For A Job Loss In A Potential Recession? How Does A Company Survive A Recession? How Do You Prepare Employees For A Recession? How To Get Rich During A Recession? What Goes Up The Most During A Recession? Who Makes The Most Money During Recession? What Jobs Are Most Affected By A Recession? What Jobs Are Good In A Bad Economy? Who To Survive A Recession? Does A Recession Affect The Rich? Who Gets Hurt In A Recession And Why? What Would Be Worse Than A Recession? Will Recession Last Into 2024? Should I Hold More Cash During Recession? How Much Cash Should I Have In A Recession? Who Earned Most Money In 2008 Financial Crisis? What Does A Recession Mean For Hr? What Does A Recession Look Like For Me? What Is A Bank Run? What Is A Bank Run And Why Is It A Problem? What Are Bank Runs Examples? What Do Banks Do During A Bank Run? What Is The Biggest Bank Run In History? Why Do People Do Bank Runs? What Happens After A Bank Run? What Happens To My Money If The Banks Collapse? How Do You Stop A Bank Run? What Is The Difference Between Bank Runs And Bank Fails? What Is Another Word For Bank Runs? How Do Banks Really Make Money? What Is The Central Issue That Causes Bank Runs And Panics? What Group Is Responsible For Stepping In To Prevent A Bank Run? Who Owes World Bank The Most? Why Do Most People Keep Their Money In The Bank? What Were Bank Runs During The Great Depression? Can A Bank Survive A Bank Run? How Long Does A Bank Have To Come After You? Should I Withdraw My Money From The Bank? Can The Bank Take Your Money If The Bank Fails? Do You Lose All Your Money When A Bank Collapses? Have Questions / Comments?

Book The Real time Information Content of Financial Stress and Bank Lending on European Business Cycles

Download or read book The Real time Information Content of Financial Stress and Bank Lending on European Business Cycles written by Jakob Fiedler and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We integrate newly created financial stress indices (FSIs) into an automated real-time recession forecasting procedure for the Euro area and Germany. The FSIs are based on a large number of financial indicators, each of them potentially signaling financial stress. A subset of these indicators is selected in real-time and their stress signal is summarized by principal component analysis (PCA). Besides conventional measures of realized financial stress, such as volatilities, we include variables related to the financial cycle, such as different types of credit growth, for which strong increases may anticipate future financial market stress. Building blocks in our fully automated real-time probit forecasts are then i. the use of a broad set of widely acknowledged macroeconomic and financial variables with predictive power for a real economic downturn, ii. the use of both general-to-specific and specific-to-general approaches for variable and lag selection, and iii. the averaging of different specifications into a composite forecast. As a real-time out-of-sample analysis shows, the inclusion of financial stress leads to an improved recession forecast for the Euro area, while the results for Germany are mixed. Finally, we also evaluate the predictive power of the change in bank lending (credit impulse) and find that it adds little additional information.

Book Business Cycles and Equilibrium

Download or read book Business Cycles and Equilibrium written by Fischer Black and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-11-02 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An updated look at what Fischer Black's ideas on business cycles and equilibrium mean today Throughout his career, Fischer Black described a view of business fluctuations based on the idea that a well-developed economy will be continually in equilibrium. In the essays that constitute this book, which is one of only two books Black ever wrote, he explores this idea thoroughly and reaches some surprising conclusions. With the newfound popularity of quantitative finance and risk management, the work of Fischer Black has garnered much attention. Business Cycles and Equilibrium-with its theory that economic and financial markets are in a continual equilibrium-is one of his books that still rings true today, given the current economic crisis. This Updated Edition clearly presents Black's classic theory on business cycles and the concept of equilibrium, and contains a new introduction by the person who knows Black best: Perry Mehrling, author of Fischer Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance (Wiley). Mehrling goes inside Black's life to uncover what was occurring during the time Black wrote Business Cycles and Equilibrium, while also shedding light on what Black would make of today's financial and economic meltdown and how he would best advise to move forward. The essays within this book reach some interesting conclusions concerning the role of equilibrium in a developed economy Warns about the use and abuse of modeling Explains the risky business of risk in a straightforward and accessible style Contains chapters dedicated to "the effects of uncontrolled banking," "the trouble with econometric models," and "the effects of noise on investing" Includes commentary on Black's life and work at the time Business Cycles and Equilibrium was written as well as insight as to what Black would make of the current financial meltdown Engaging and informative, the Updated Edition of Business Cycles and Equilibrium will give you a better understanding of what is really going on during these uncertain and volatile financial times.

Book Recessions and Depressions

Download or read book Recessions and Depressions written by Todd A. Knoop and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2009-11-25 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an examination of the empirical data of business cycles, the theories that economists have developed to explain them, and major case studies of recessions and depressions both in the United States and internationally. When it first appeared in 2004, the first edition of Recessions and Depressions: Understanding Business Cycles offered readers an expertly guided tour through fundamental business cycle theories and the latest research on pivotal market failures. In the aftermath of the events of the 2008 economic crisis, Knoop offers an extensively updated new edition. As before, the second edition offers clear explanations of classical and Keynesian economic theory and how each has moved in and out of favor from the early 20th century to the present. It then provides detailed studies of major business-cycle downturns in the United States, from the Great Depression and postwar recessions to the "new" economy of the 1990s, the 2001 recession, and in an all-new chapter, the 2008 global financial crisis. The book also features an exhaustive update of statistical data, plus coverage of recent international crises in Argentina and Japan, and a new chapter on what we do and don't know about business cycles.

Book World Economic Outlook  October 2008

Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2008 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-10-10 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unique international exercise in information-gathering and analysis An extraordinary confluence of global forces has kept the world economy strong in the past few years, but there are now numerous challenges to growth. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF's leading economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium terms. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide. Published at least twice yearly, the World Economic Outlook presents the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Each WEO considers the issues affecting advanced and emerging economies. The analytic chapters provide the global intelligence required to deal with global interdependence. These analyses focus on pressing concerns or hotly debated issues, putting prospects for liquidity, inflation, and growth into context. The statistical appendix presents historical data as well as projections and selected series from World Economic Outlook database updated for each report. The October 2008 edition examines commodity prices and inflation, economic cycles in the aftermath of financial crises, the role of fiscal policy during downturns, and current account imbalances in emerging economies. Recent analytic chapters have examined climate change, the housing cycle, commodity prices, capital inflows, globalization and inequality, and the global business cycle.

Book World Economic Outlook  April 2017

Download or read book World Economic Outlook April 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-04-18 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade, according to Chapter 1 of this World Economic Outlook. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018. Stronger activity, expectations of more robust global demand, reduced deflationary pressures, and optimistic financial markets are all upside developments. But structural impediments to a stronger recovery and a balance of risks that remains tilted to the downside, especially over the medium term, remain important challenges. Chapter 2 examines how changes in external conditions may affect the pace of income convergence between advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Chapter 3 looks at the declining share of income that goes to labor, including the root causes and how the trend affects inequality. Overall, this report stresses the need for credible strategies in advanced economies and in those whose markets are emerging and developing to tackle a number of common challenges in an integrated global economy.