Download or read book Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.

Download or read book Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia written by Robert J. Barro and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-01-04 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia brings together authoritative essays that identify and examine various initiatives to promote economic integration in Asia.

Download or read book Global Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Download or read book What Happens During Recessions Crunches and Busts written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions. JEL Classification Numbers: E32; E44; E51; F42

Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Download or read book Uncertainty Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics written by Fredj Jawadi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-12 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written in honor of Emeritus Professor Georges Prat (University of Paris Nanterre, France), this book includes contributions from eminent authors on a range of topics that are of interest to researchers and graduates, as well as investors and portfolio managers. The topics discussed include the effects of information and transaction costs on informational and allocative market efficiency, bubbles and stock price dynamics, paradox of rational expectations and the principle of limited information, uncertainty and expectation hypotheses, oil price dynamics, and nonlinearity in asset price dynamics.

Download or read book International Financial Integration written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, the foreign assets and liabilities of advanced economies have grown rapidly relative to GDP, with the increase in gross cross-holdings far exceeding changes in the size of net positions. Moreover, the portfolio equity and FDI categories have grown in importance relative to international debt stocks. This paper describes the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries and seeks to explain the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets. It also examines the behavior of the rates of return on foreign assets and liabilities, relating them to "market" returns.

Download or read book Redefining European Economic Integration written by Dariusz Adamski and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-04-19 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An innovative, bipartisan and comprehensive account of why European economic integration has been in disarray and how to fix it.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy written by Horst Siebert and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-08-02 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The integration of goods and financial markets has progressed on a global scale in recent years. Thus, the cyclical patterns in the world economy may have changed too. Against this background, experts in international economics analyze the synchronization of business cycles and their volatility in this book. Is there an European business cycle? What is the role of multinational corporations and monetary policy in transmitting business cycles? Further, they discuss the need and feasibility of internationally coordinating monetary and exchange rate policies and the quantitative effects of tax competition.

Download or read book European Business Cycle Convergence written by Jennifer Schneider and published by Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften. This book was released on 2013 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the euro area getting closer with regard to business cycles? The study investigates the linkage between business cycle convergence and financial portfolio choice for a panel of 18 European countries. For this purpose an index is constructed which measures the similarity of investment portfolios. The idea is that financial portfolio choice has an impact on business cycles and contributes to convergence via the consumption-wealth linkage. The background of the analysis is the International Asset Pricing Model (IAPM). The results of fixed effects GMM TSLS estimations confirm the linkage. The effect is higher for country-pairs that are built by one euro area member and one member outside the euro area.

Download or read book Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration written by Marcus Kappler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-07-30 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.

Download or read book Economic Convergence in the Euro Area Coming Together or Drifting Apart written by Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-23 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.

Download or read book Prospects for Monetary Cooperation and Integration in East Asia written by Ulrich Volz and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: East Asian countries were notably uninterested in regional monetary integration until the late 1990's, when the Asian financial crisis revealed the fragility of the region's exchange rate arrangements and highlighted the need for a stronger regional financial architecture. Since then, the countries of East Asia have begun taking steps to explore monetary and financial cooperation, establishing such initiatives as regular consultations among finance ministers and central bank governors and the pooling of foreign exchange reserves. In this book Ulrich Volz investigates the prospects for monetary cooperation and integration in East Asia, using state-of-the-art theoretical and empirical tools to analyze the most promising policy options. --

Download or read book Real and Financial Integration in Asia written by Shandre Thangavelu and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First Published in 2012. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

Download or read book Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization written by Eric Monnet and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-08 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find that the globalization period is not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1971) than during the Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did not affect the average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the way countries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this effect depends crucially on the type of shocks hitting the world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset the synchronizing impact of other forces, such as increased trade integration.

Download or read book Financial Integration in the European Monetary Union written by Sławomir Ireneusz Bukowski and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2019-11-21 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces readers to the world of international financial markets and their integration on a global and regional scale. The author presents the theoretical and practical issues concerning the processes of financial market integration, with a particular focus on the monetary union. The empirical research results are based on econometric modeling, thus simplifying them for a non-specialist audience, who can instead concentrate on the author’s conclusions, which comprise the results of these complicated research methods. The author outlines the role and functions of financial markets in the economy, in particular the relationship between financial intermediaries and financial markets and tackles the question of integration of new EU member countries’ financial markets within the eurozone. The integration of financial markets in an international context is inevitable, and the author argues that we must learn how to benefit from it from in terms of economic growth. This book will be a valuable resource for students of economics and finance, particularly those studying financial management and international business and finance, as well as professionals in these fields. Further, this book will be of interest to anyone looking to discover more about the problems of globalization and the integration of financial markets into the modern economy.