Download or read book Financial Conditions in Europe Dynamics Drivers and Macroeconomic Implications written by Giovanni Borraccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-09-29 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a new measure of financial conditions (FCs) that targets the growth of financial liabilities using the partial least square methodology. We then estimate financial condition indexes (FCIs) across European economies, both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We decompose the changes in FCs into several factors including credit availability and costs, price of risk, policy stance, and funding constraints. Our results show that FCs loosened during the pandemic thanks to policy support but started to tighten significantly since mid-2021. Using the inverse probability weighting method over the sample period from 2000 to 2023, we find that a shift from a neutral to a tight FCI regime such as the ongoing episode for most European countries will on average lower output and inflation by 2.2 percent and 0.7 percentage points respectively and increase unemployment by 0.3 percentage points over a three-year horizon.
Download or read book The Term Structure of Growth at Risk written by Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-02 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)—defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile—more responsive than the median or upper percentiles. In addition, the term structure of GaR features an intertemporal tradeoff: GaR is higher in the short run; but lower in the medium run when initial financial conditions are loose relative to typical levels, and the tradeoff is amplified by a credit boom. This shift in the growth distribution generally is not incorporated when solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with macrofinancial linkages, which suggests downside risks to GDP growth are systematically underestimated.
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Understanding Global Liquidity written by Sandra Eickmeier and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Macroprudential Policy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides the most comprehensive empirical study of the effectiveness of macroprudential instruments to date. Using data from 49 countries, the paper evaluates the effectiveness of macroprudential instruments in reducing systemic risk over time and across institutions and markets. The analysis suggests that many of the most frequently used instruments are effective in reducing pro-cyclicality and the effectiveness is sensitive to the type of shock facing the financial sector. Based on these findings, the paper identifies conditions under which macroprudential policy is most likely to be effective, as well as conditions under which it may have little impact.
Download or read book Principles of Sustainable Finance written by Dirk Schoenmaker and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2019 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Combining theory, empirical data, and policy this book provides a fresh analysis of sustainable finance. It explains the sustainability challenges for corporate investment and shows how finance can steer funding to certain companies and projects without sacrificing return, speeding up the transistion to a sustainable economy.
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Download or read book Czech Republic written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-01-30 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Czech Republic: Selected Issues
Download or read book The Economics and Implications of Data written by Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-23 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This SPR Departmental Paper will provide policymakers with a framework for studying changes to national data policy frameworks.
Download or read book Israel written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-15 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following a remarkable recovery from the pandemic anchored in strong fundamentals, the outlook is for growth to slow broadly in line with potential, as inflation falls within the targeted range by end-2024. However, the risk balance is tilted to the downside, reflecting, among other things, external risks and the continued uncertainty around the proposed judicial reform.
Download or read book The Cross Country Incidence of the Global Crisis written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine whether the cross-country incidence and severity of the 2008-2009 global recession is systematically related to pre-crisis macroeconomic and financial factors. We find that the pre-crisis level of development, increases in the ratio of private credit to GDP, current account deficits, and openness to trade are helpful in understanding the intensity of the crisis. International risk sharing did little to shield domestic demand from the country-specific component of output declines, while those countries with large pre-crisis current account deficits saw domestic demand fall by much more than domestic output during the crisis.
Download or read book Finland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-11 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent developments and outlook. Weak household income growth, falling house prices, higher interest rates, and stagnation in Europe has caused activity to stall in Finland, with a contraction of 0.5 percent estimated in 2023. Labor markets have shown resilience, but unemployment is expected to increase somewhat in coming months, especially from the construction sector. However, inflation has fallen to more normal levels and financial conditions appear to be easing, paving the way for a modest recovery this year, strengthening further in 2025.
Download or read book Growth and Innovation of Competitive Regions written by Ugo Fratesi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-12-29 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time Time b a Space Space Time Time c d Space Space Fig. 1 Different possible scales for growth and innovation analyses spatial dimension, the sectoral dimension and the time dimension are represented. In Fig. 1a, regional developmentanalyses are revealed, where the economyis sliced vertically into regions and their dynamics are investigated. The study of the evolution of industries, typical of evolutionary industrial e- nomics, is represented in Fig. 1b, where the economy is divided horizontally into sectoral slices. This approach has progressed considerably in recent years (see Malerba 2006, for a recent survey). Modi?cations of industries have important spatial implications, which however are not normally at the core of these ana- ses even though spatial patterns of innovation differ greatly from sector to sector (Breschi 2000). Our approach operates in the manner of Fig. 1a and we will focus on regions, extending the analysis to industries only where this is regionally and structurally relevant. Hence, the approach in the book belongs to the tradition of regional development theories, but, in contrast to the more traditional analyses, we will not consider the region as an economic unit per se. Rather, interactions between and within regions are very relevant to the performance of individual regions in an integrated world and will be at the core of the analyses of the following chapters.
Download or read book Italy written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-07-23 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Activity expanded by nearly 1 percent in 2023, with GDP surpassing its pre-pandemic level by 41⁄2 percent. Headline inflation fell on the drop in energy prices, with core inflation also moderating. Employment rose alongside real activity. Financial conditions have eased somewhat but remain tight. Despite fiscal deficits much larger than pre-COVID, the public debt ratio declined on deferred recording of tax credits and strong nominal GDP growth. Sovereign debt risks are moderate overall, but high at the medium- and long-horizons. Low fertility and low female labor force participation foreshadow faster population and work force declines amid weak productivity growth.
