Download or read book Financial and Macroeconomic Data Through the Lens of a Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Model written by Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Data Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models written by Mr.Maxym Kryshko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-09-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels of macroeconomic and financial data can be captured by relatively few common unobserved factors. Similarly, the dynamics in DSGE models are often governed by a handful of state variables and exogenous processes such as preference and/or technology shocks. Boivin and Giannoni(2006) combine a DSGE and a factor model into a data-rich DSGE model, in which DSGE states are factors and factor dynamics are subject to DSGE model implied restrictions. We compare a data-richDSGE model with a standard New Keynesian core to an empirical dynamic factor model by estimating both on a rich panel of U.S. macroeconomic and financial data compiled by Stock and Watson (2008).We find that the spaces spanned by the empirical factors and by the data-rich DSGE model states are very close. This proximity allows us to propagate monetary policy and technology innovations in an otherwise non-structural dynamic factor model to obtain predictions for many more series than just a handful of traditional macro variables, including measures of real activity, price indices, labor market indicators, interest rate spreads, money and credit stocks, and exchange rates.
Download or read book Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data written by Abdol S. Soofi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data brings together a coherent and accessible set of chapters on recent research results on this topic. To make such methods readily useful in practice, the contributors to this volume have agreed to make available to readers upon request all computer programs used to implement the methods discussed in their respective chapters. Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data is a valuable resource for researchers and graduate students studying complex systems in finance, biology, and physics, as well as those applying such methods to nonlinear time series analysis and signal processing.
Download or read book Dynamic Factor Model with Non linearities written by Anna Petronevich and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis is dedicated to the study of a particular class of non-linear Dynamic Factor Models, the Dynamic Factor Models with Markov Switching (MS-DFM). Combining the features of the Dynamic Factor model and the Markov Switching model, i.e. the ability to aggregate massive amounts of information and to track recurring processes, this framework has proved to be a very useful and convenient instrument in many applications, the most important of them being the analysis of business cycles.In order to monitor the health of an economy and to evaluate policy results, the knowledge of the currentstate of the business cycle is essential. However, it is not easy to determine since there is no commonly accepted dataset and method to identify turning points, and the official institutions announce a newturning point, in countries where such practice exists, with a structural delay of several months. The MS-DFM is able to resolve these issues by providing estimates of the current state of the economy in a timely, transparent and replicable manner on the basis of the common component of macroeconomic indicators characterizing the real sector. The thesis contributes to the vast literature in this area in three directions. In Chapter 3, I compare the two popular estimation techniques of the MS-DFM, the one-step and the two-step methods, and apply them to the French data to obtain the business cycle turning point chronology. In Chapter 4, on the basis of Monte Carlo simulations, I study the consistency of the estimators of the preferred technique -the two-step estimation method, and analyze their behavior in small samples. In Chapter 5, I extend the MS-DFM and suggest the Dynamical Influence MS-DFM, which allows to evaluate the contribution of the financial sector to the dynamics of the business cycle and vice versa, taking into consideration that the interaction between them can be dynamic.
Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Siem Jan Koopman and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 685 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.
Download or read book Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data written by Gilles Dufrénot and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-11-21 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a comprehensive overview of the latest econometric methods for studying the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial time series. It examines alternative methodological approaches and concepts, including quantile spectra and co-spectra, and explores topics such as non-linear and non-stationary behavior, stochastic volatility models, and the econometrics of commodity markets and globalization. Furthermore, it demonstrates the application of recent techniques in various fields: in the frequency domain, in the analysis of persistent dynamics, in the estimation of state space models and new classes of volatility models. The book is divided into two parts: The first part applies econometrics to the field of macroeconomics, discussing trend/cycle decomposition, growth analysis, monetary policy and international trade. The second part applies econometrics to a wide range of topics in financial economics, including price dynamics in equity, commodity and foreign exchange markets and portfolio analysis. The book is essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners in government and financial institutions interested in applying recent econometric time series methods to financial and economic data.
Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomics and Dynamic Factor Models written by Ziyi Guo and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Nonlinear Economic Dynamics and Financial Modelling written by Roberto Dieci and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-07-26 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reflects the state of the art on nonlinear economic dynamics, financial market modelling and quantitative finance. It contains eighteen papers with topics ranging from disequilibrium macroeconomics, monetary dynamics, monopoly, financial market and limit order market models with boundedly rational heterogeneous agents to estimation, time series modelling and empirical analysis and from risk management of interest-rate products, futures price volatility and American option pricing with stochastic volatility to evaluation of risk and derivatives of electricity market. The book illustrates some of the most recent research tools in these areas and will be of interest to economists working in economic dynamics and financial market modelling, to mathematicians who are interested in applying complexity theory to economics and finance and to market practitioners and researchers in quantitative finance interested in limit order, futures and electricity market modelling, derivative pricing and risk management.
Download or read book System Dynamics in Economic and Financial Models written by Christiaan Heij and published by Wiley. This book was released on 1997-12-05 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: System Dynamics in Economic and Financial Models Edited by Christiaan Heij, Hans Schumacher, Bernard Hanzon and Kees Praagman System Dynamics in Economic and Financial Models discusses different approaches for dynamic modelling of economic and financial data, and includes empirical applications, particularly in finance and macroeconomics, to illustrate the methods discussed. Written by leading experts from a wide range of backgrounds, varying from econometries and finance to systems and control, each chapter is followed by a comments section that presents alternative and sometimes contrasting points of view. The authors look at the interface between economics and finance, and examine topics including non-linear dynamics chaos structural change trends and cointegration general methodologies in empirical modelling
Download or read book Dynamic Modeling Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance written by Lucas Bernard and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-03 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited volume, with contributions by area experts, offers discussions on a range of evolving topics in economics and social development. At center are important issues central to sustainable development, economic growth, technological change, the economics of climate change, commodity markets, long wave theory, non-linear dynamic models, and boom-bust cycles. This is an excellent reference for academic and professional economists interested in emerging areas of empirical macroeconomics and finance. For policy makers and curious readers alike, it is also an outstanding introduction to the economic thinking of those who seek a holistic and all-compassing approach in economic theory and policy. Looking into new data and methodology, this book offers fresh approaches in a post-crisis environment. Set in a profound understanding of the diverse currents within the many traditions of economic thought, this book pushes the established frontiers of economic thinking. It is dedicated to a leading scholar in the areas covered in this book, Willi Semmler.
Download or read book Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models written by Jun Ma and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-09-24 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nonlinear models have been used extensively in the areas of economics and finance. Recent literature on the topic has shown that a large number of series exhibit nonlinear dynamics as opposed to the alternative--linear dynamics. Incorporating these concepts involves deriving and estimating nonlinear time series models, and these have typically taken the form of Threshold Autoregression (TAR) models, Exponential Smooth Transition (ESTAR) models, and Markov Switching (MS) models, among several others. This edited volume provides a timely overview of nonlinear estimation techniques, offering new methods and insights into nonlinear time series analysis. It features cutting-edge research from leading academics in economics, finance, and business management, and will focus on such topics as Zero-Information-Limit-Conditions, using Markov Switching Models to analyze economics series, and how best to distinguish between competing nonlinear models. Principles and techniques in this book will appeal to econometricians, finance professors teaching quantitative finance, researchers, and graduate students interested in learning how to apply advances in nonlinear time series modeling to solve complex problems in economics and finance.
Download or read book Market Microstructure and Nonlinear Dynamics written by Gilles Dufrénot and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-07-14 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses market microstructure environment within the context of the global financial crisis. In the first part, the market microstructure theory is recalled and the main microstructure models and hypotheses are discussed. The second part focuses on the main effects of the financial downturn through an examination of market microstructure dynamics. In particular, the effects of market imperfections and the limitations associated with microstructure models are discussed. Finally, the new regulations and recent developments for financial markets that aim to improve the market microstructure are discussed. Well-known experts on the subject contribute to the chapters in the book. A must-read for academic researchers, students and quantitative practitioners.
Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models in Macro finance written by David Scherrer and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic concepts such as in ation and real economic activity are not directly observed. Researchers often use factor models in order to measure these unobserved concepts. The underlying view is that a small number of factors exist which represent the concept and drive many related variables. Consequently, the U.S. economy is often modeled as an a ne function of some factors. If indeed there is such a factor structure for the U.S. economy, then it can be represented by a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM). In the rst chapter, I describe and summarize the literature on GDFMs. In the second chapter, I investigate the interactions and mutually independent dynamics of changes in in ation and real growth by applying the GDFM to a block of real growth variables, a block of in ation variables, and to their joint panel. In this manner, an empirical decomposition of the U.S. economy is obtained and this allows the reconcilitaion of forward and backward looking Phillips curves. In the third chapter, I build and study a discrete time generalized dynamic a ne term structure model. This is characterized by three main features that are conceptually important for a ne yield curve models. I allow: (a) for state vector dynamics beyond Markovian types; (b) that all yields may contain an idiosyncratic component to re ect measurement-errors in the data; and (c) that idiosyncratic components may be crosssectional as well as time-serial correlated. It is possible to directly compare this model with the version that is restricted by Du e-Kan's no-arbitrage conditions. Chapter four addresses whether or not changes in yields can be explained by changes to the latent dynamic factors which underlie the macroeconomic concepts of in ation and real growth. As such, I contribute to the debate about whether or not monetary policy should react to real activity measures.
Download or read book Examining Macroeconomic Models Through the Lens of Asset Pricing written by Jaroslav Borovička and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic stochastic equilibrium models of the macro economy are designed to match the macro time series including impulse response functions. Since these models aim to be structural, they also have implications for asset pricing. To assess these implications, we explore asset pricing counterparts to impulse response functions. We use the resulting dynamic value decomposition (DVD) methods to quantify the exposures of macroeconomic cash flows to shocks over alternative investment horizons and the corresponding prices or compensations that investors must receive because of the exposure to such shocks. We build on the continuous-time methods developed in Hansen and Scheinkman (2010), Borovicka et al. (2011) and Hansen (2011) by constructing discrete-time shock elasticities that measure the sensitivity of cash flows and their prices to economic shocks including economic shocks featured in the empirical macroeconomics literature. By design, our methods are applicable to economic models that are nonlinear, including models with stochastic volatility. We illustrate our methods by analyzing the asset pricing model of Ai et al. (2010) with tangible and intangible capital.
Download or read book Non Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance written by Philip Hans Franses and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-07-27 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2000 volume reviews non-linear time series models, and their applications to financial markets.
Download or read book Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics Finance and the Social Sciences written by Gian Italo Bischi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-12-15 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last two decades there has been a great deal of research into nonlinear dynamic models in economics, finance and the social sciences. This book contains twenty papers that range over very recent applications in these areas. Topics covered include structural change and economic growth, disequilibrium dynamics and economic policy as well as models with boundedly rational agents. The book illustrates some of the most recent research tools in this area and will be of interest to economists working in economic dynamics and to mathematicians interested in seeing ideas from nonlinear dynamics and complexity theory applied to the economic sciences.
Download or read book Applied Dynamic Factor Modeling in Finance written by Ross Askanazi and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this dissertation, I study model misspecification in applications of dynamic factor models to finance. In Chapter 1, my co-author Jacob Warren and I examine factors for volatility of equities. Historical literature on the subject decomposes volatility into a factor component and an idiosyncratic remainder. Recent work has suggested that idiosyncratic volatility of US equities data has a factor structure, with the factor highly correlated with, and possibly precisely the market volatility. In this paper we attempt to characterize the underlying factor and find that it can be decomposed into a statistical (PCA) and structural (market volatility) factor. We also show that this feature is not unique to equities, appearing in diverse sets of financial data. Lastly, we find that this dual-factor approach is slightly dominated in forecasting environments by a single statistical factor, suggesting that accurate measurement of the factors provides a direction for future work. In Chapter 2, I explore the use of dynamic factor models in yield curve forecasting and an exploration of the spanning hypothesis--that is, whether all information necessary for forecasting yields is contained in the current yield curve. Only linear tests of the spanning hypothesis are typically conducted in the literature, and the results are subject to substantial disagreement. In this paper, I explore a key modern nonlinearity, namely the zero lower bound (ZLB). I first demonstrate in simulation that only very small nonlinearities in the measurement equation are necessary to break down the assumed linear spanning relationship. Because bond yields are determined by forward-looking behavior of investors, the effect of the ZLB affects spanning results as early as 1995. New nonlinear spanning tests are found to behave appropriately. Using the full set of yields instead of truncating to a small number of principal components is quantitatively important but does not eliminate the omitted nonlinearity effect.
