Download or read book Faulty Predictions written by Karin Lin-Greenberg and published by University of Georgia Press. This book was released on 2014 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Taking place in locales as diverse as small-town Ohio, the mountains of western North Carolina, and the plains of Kansas, Lin-Greenberg's stories provide insight into the human condition over a cross section of age and culture. Although the characters are often faced with challenges, the stories capture moments of optimism and hope.
Download or read book Climatology versus Pseudoscience written by Dana Nuccitelli and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2015-03-03 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains the science of climate change in plain language and shows that the 2 to 4 percent of climate scientists who are skeptical that humans are the main cause of global warming are a fringe minority—and have a well-established history of being wrong. Although some politicians, pundits, and members of the public do not believe it, global warming predictions by mainstream climate scientists have been remarkably accurate while those made by climate deniers have not. And if mainstream global warming predictions continue to prove correct, the window of opportunity to prevent a climate catastrophe is quickly closing. This book is the first to illustrate the accuracy—and inaccuracy—of global warming predictions made by mainstream climate scientists and by climate contrarians from the 1970s to the present day. Written in simple, non-technical language that provides an accessible explanation of key climate science concepts, the book will appeal to general audiences without previous knowledge about climate science. Author Dana Nuccitelli, an environmental scientist and risk assessor, discusses some key climate discoveries dating back to the 19th century and debunks myths such as the idea that climate scientists and climate models have grossly over-predicted global warming. He addresses recent findings of a 97-percent consensus in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that humans are causing global warming—a nearly unanimous agreement that formed in the early 1990s and has grown through the present day. Nuccitelli also discusses what the future climate might look like if current trends continue unabated, and what we as a global society need to do to prevent a climate catastrophe.
Download or read book Summary of David Robson s The Expectation Effect written by Milkyway Media and published by Milkyway Media. This book was released on 2024-07-14 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Buy now to get the main key ideas from David Robson's The Expectation Effect Science journalist David Robson argues that our beliefs and expectations profoundly shape our health, well-being, and performance in The Expectation Effect (2022). He highlights scientific studies and real-life examples demonstrating how our thoughts affect outcomes. Robson shows how expectations influence fitness, diet, stress, and cognitive abilities. He also offers techniques that can harness the power of expectations for better health and performance.
Download or read book Future Babble written by Dan Gardner and published by McClelland & Stewart. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Download or read book Summary of David Robson s The Expectation Effect written by Everest Media, and published by Everest Media LLC. This book was released on 2022-03-21T22:59:00Z with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Please note: This is a companion version & not the original book. Sample Book Insights: #1 The brain is a prediction machine that constructs an elaborate simulation of the world based on its expectations and previous experiences. These simulations usually coincide with objective reality, but they can sometimes stray far from what is actually in the physical world. #2 The brain’s visual cortex is wired with many neural connections feeding in predictions from other regions of the brain. The eye is a small but essential element of your vision, while the rest of what you see is created in the dark within your skull. #3 The brain’s reliance on prediction helps us deal with incredible ambiguity. If you look at the image below, you will struggle to identify anything recognizable. But if you see the original image, it suddenly becomes a lot clearer. #4 The brain can also predict the effects of our movements, so that we don’t jump out of our skin whenever one of our legs brushes against the other. However, there will always be some small errors in each brain’s simulation of the world around us.
Download or read book When Prophecy Fails written by Leon Festinger and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2013-04-01 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study reported in this volume grew out of some theoretical work, one phase of which bore specifically on the behavior of individuals in social movements that made specific (and unfulfilled) prophecies. We had been forced to depend chiefly on historical records to judge the adequacy of our theoretical ideas until we by chance discovered the social movement that we report in this book. At the time we learned of it, the movement was in mid-career but the prophecy about which it was centered had not yet been disconfirmed. We were understandably eager to undertake a study that could test our theoretical ideas under natural conditions. That we were able to do this study was in great measure due to the support obtained through the Laboratory for Research in Social Relations of the University of Minnesota. This study is a project of the Laboratory and was carried out while we were all members of its staff. We should also like to acknowledge the help we received through a grant-in-aid from the Ford Foundation to one of the authors, a grant that made preliminary exploration of the field situation possible.
Download or read book The Fortune Sellers written by William A. Sherden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1997-10-28 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ein Klassiker jetzt neu als Broschurausgabe. Das Erstellen von Zukunftsprognosen ist ein millionenschweres Geschaft. Doch haufig entstehen Zweifel an der Zuverlassigkeit der Vorhersagen. Sherden entlarvt falsche Prophezeiungen und trennt die Tatsachen von Trugschlussen, um den Leser zu zeigen, wie man Prognosen am besten nutzt und wie man sich die "Rosinen" herauspickt. Eine faszinierende Lekture, mit einer Unmenge erkennbarer, offensichtlicher Tatsachen und handfester Beispiele. (12/99)
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Download or read book Region and Nation written by James Brennan and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2003-01-30 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of twentieth-century Argentine history is undergoing a radical transformation. Both Argentine and U.S. historians of Argentina are recasting the great debates in the historiography by challenging the Buenos Aires-centered focus of most of the existing historical scholarship and offering a new perspective on the country's modern history. Argentina's supposed 'exceptionalism' is being challenged by these historians. The persistence of political clientilism and oligarchic rule, enclave economies and pre-capitalist social relations, the role of traditional institutions such as the Church and family, intense class conflict and working class militancy, all approximate Argentina closer to the Latin American experience than the previous historiography would suggest. This book is a unique collaboration between Argentine and U.S. historians of this 'other Argentina.'
Download or read book Selected Papers of Lawrence R Klein written by Lawrence Robert Klein and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1997 with total page 706 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains selected papers of Lawrence R Klein in economics, econometric theory and applications in modeling, forecasting, macroeconomic analysis, international economics and public policy. Nobel Laureate Lawrence Klein's bibliography spans a half-century, including books, articles, and chapters in conference proceedings, festschriften, and thematic books. One such volume of solely scientific collections, mainly from his relatively early articles, has already been published. The present volume is different, it includes some articles, but largely chapters, or book excerpts that were mostly written since 1980, the approximate cut-off date of the prior volume, and the year of his Nobel Prize. Also, it includes things that were published in very limited or obscure editions. Thus it provides a more complete picture of his scholarly career and his current reflections on the state of economic science. All these writings are in the vanguard of thinking about economics in a global domain.The thirty-five-plus selections are organized in five parts, by major themes. An editorial commentary introduces each part. The introductory chapters include Klein's autobiographical research commentary, and his professional life philosophy.
Download or read book Advanced Introduction to Bounded Rationality written by Clement A. Tisdell and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2023-01-13 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offering a concise and engaging overview of the concepts of bounded rationality and their applications, this stimulating Advanced Introduction engages with the topic in a constructively critical manner, introducing new ideas. Chapters cover key topics including: optimally imperfect decisions; ecological rationality; the role of bounded rationality in evolutionary economics; satisficing as a response to bounded rationality; desirable types of economic decisions; the relational exercise of foresight; and the impact of bounded rationality of the efficiency of organizations.
Download or read book Spatial Predictive Modeling with R written by Jin Li and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-02-22 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Spatial predictive modeling (SPM) is an emerging discipline in applied sciences, playing a key role in the generation of spatial predictions in various disciplines. SPM refers to preparing relevant data, developing optimal predictive models based on point data, and then generating spatial predictions. This book aims to systematically introduce the entire process of SPM as a discipline. The process contains data acquisition, spatial predictive methods and variable selection, parameter optimization, accuracy assessment, and the generation and visualization of spatial predictions, where spatial predictive methods are from geostatistics, modern statistics, and machine learning. The key features of this book are: •Systematically introducing major components of SPM process. •Novel hybrid methods (228 hybrids plus numerous variants) of modern statistical methods or machine learning methods with mathematical and/or univariate geostatistical methods. •Novel predictive accuracy-based variable selection techniques for spatial predictive methods. •Predictive accuracy-based parameter/model optimization. •Reproducible examples for SPM of various data types in R. This book provides guidelines, recommendations, and reproducible examples for developing optimal predictive models by considering various components and associated factors for quality-improved spatial predictions. It provides valuable tools for researchers, modelers, and university students not only in SPM field but also in other predictive modeling fields. Dr Li has produced over 100 various publications in spatial predictive modelling, statistical computing, ecological and environmental modelling, and ecology, developed a number of hybrid methods for SPM, and published four R packages for variable selections as well as SPM.
Download or read book Liberalism as Ideology written by Ben Jackson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012-02-16 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Liberalism is the dominant ideology of our time, yet its character remains the subject of intense scholarly and political controversy. Inspired by the work of Michael Freeden, this book brings together an internationally-respected cast of scholars to debate liberalism and to redefine the very essence of what it is to be a liberal.
Download or read book Happiness and the Law written by John Bronsteen and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2015 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Happiness and the law the two concepts seem to have little to do with one another. To some people, they may even seem diametrically opposed. Yet, one of the things that laws strive to do is improve the quality of people s lives. John Bronsteen and his coauthors draw on new research on happiness from psychology, economics, and neuroscience to understand the law s effects on peoplewhether they make them happy or unhappyand how good the law is at predicting these effects. Happiness research has shown that people can adapt to some things but not to others; that people often err in predicting what will make them happy; and that money affects most people s happiness less than is assumed. Using such insights, the authors consider the effects of legal policies and regulations, criminal punishments, and civil lawsuits on how people experience their lives. The results are exciting and often counterintuitive. The findings of hedonic psychology indicate, for example, a need to rethink our current understandings of imprisonment and monetary fines. Most broadly, the book proposes a comprehensive approach to human welfare to assess the good and bad consequences of laws and policies. This approach, well-being analysis, is far superior to the strictly economically based cost-benefit analyses which currently dominate how we evaluate public policy. The study of happiness is the next step in the evolution from traditional economic analysis of the law to a behavioral approach. "Happiness and the Law" will serve as the definitive, yet accessible, guide to understanding this new paradigm."
Download or read book The Politics of Racist Hegemony in Trinidad and Tobago written by Daurius Figueira and published by iUniverse. This book was released on 2010-08-02 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work is a deconstruction of the political discourse of politicians in Trinidad and Tobago from the 1950's to the present. This deconstruction has revealed a discourse of racist hegemony is the basis for political mobilisation in Trinidad and Tobago as it frames a mental image of a hegemonic race wielding state power over a dominated race consigned to the wilderness of opposition politics. The resources of the state exist then for the benefit of the hegemonic race and those who conceive of self as belonging to races in competition for state resources must then do their political duty to ensure the hegemony of their race. Politics has nothing to do with governance, personal and social development.
Download or read book Crisis Economics and the Emperor s Clothes written by Frans Doorman and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2013-06-01 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why isn't society doing better economically, socially and environmentally? Why have the advances in science and technology not led to more wealth, well-being and a brighter outlook for humanity? This book argues part of the blame lies with the theory and practice of economics. Standard economics is based on poorly conceived premises and method, resulting in misguided policy prescriptions. These helped cause the 2007 crisis, inhibit economic recovery, foster future crises, and restrain society in addressing its social and environmental problems. The book shows that what is considered responsible economic, financial and fiscal policy puts society in an economic straightjacket that prevents the full development of its productive potential. It presents the outline of a new economics, a social science that can help generate the productive potential to create a dynamic, socially equitable and environmentally sustainable society.
Download or read book Robotization of Work written by Barbara Czarniawska and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2020-04-24 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this timely book, Barbara Czarniawska and Bernward Joerges examine the hopes and fears around work and job security inspired by automation, from the original coining of the term ‘robot’ to the present day media fascination. Have these hopes and fears changed or do they remain the same? This discerning book investigates whether these changes in perception correlate to actual changes taking place in the field of robotics.
