Download or read book Faulty Predictions written by Karin Lin-Greenberg and published by University of Georgia Press. This book was released on 2014 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Taking place in locales as diverse as small-town Ohio, the mountains of western North Carolina, and the plains of Kansas, Lin-Greenberg's stories provide insight into the human condition over a cross section of age and culture. Although the characters are often faced with challenges, the stories capture moments of optimism and hope.
Download or read book Climatology versus Pseudoscience written by Dana Nuccitelli and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2015-03-03 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains the science of climate change in plain language and shows that the 2 to 4 percent of climate scientists who are skeptical that humans are the main cause of global warming are a fringe minority—and have a well-established history of being wrong. Although some politicians, pundits, and members of the public do not believe it, global warming predictions by mainstream climate scientists have been remarkably accurate while those made by climate deniers have not. And if mainstream global warming predictions continue to prove correct, the window of opportunity to prevent a climate catastrophe is quickly closing. This book is the first to illustrate the accuracy—and inaccuracy—of global warming predictions made by mainstream climate scientists and by climate contrarians from the 1970s to the present day. Written in simple, non-technical language that provides an accessible explanation of key climate science concepts, the book will appeal to general audiences without previous knowledge about climate science. Author Dana Nuccitelli, an environmental scientist and risk assessor, discusses some key climate discoveries dating back to the 19th century and debunks myths such as the idea that climate scientists and climate models have grossly over-predicted global warming. He addresses recent findings of a 97-percent consensus in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that humans are causing global warming—a nearly unanimous agreement that formed in the early 1990s and has grown through the present day. Nuccitelli also discusses what the future climate might look like if current trends continue unabated, and what we as a global society need to do to prevent a climate catastrophe.
Download or read book Future Babble written by Dan Gardner and published by Emblem Editions. This book was released on 2011-09-27 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Download or read book Naadi Predictions written by Shashikant Oak and published by Diamond Pocket Books Pvt Ltd. This book was released on 2014-02-18 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wing Commander (Retd.) Shashikant Oak of Pune has a great contribution in bringing the Naadi palm leaf based astrological system into limelight. For about past 18 years, he has been conducting an original research on the aforesaid system. His research includes various scientific angles, and has given the whole subject a new dimension. To conduct the original research, he has visited almost all the Naadi centers in India during the course of last 18 years, apart from individually meeting a thousands of persons to take on account the firsthand experiences. He has also presented a detailed paper called 'Comparative Study: Nostradamus and Naadi Granthas.' This revised and enlarged edition includes fresh astonishing experiences such as:- readings from blank paper, appearance of vibhooti upon the palm leaf, shocking episodes of Group Caption Rakesh Nanda throwing light on the ancient Maharishi's wisdom available in India. First time more than 220 addresses from all over Indian states have been presented in alphabetical order. Excerpts from the interview of Padamshree Dr. Vijay Bhaskar: “As I am a scientist; while thinking about the Naadi palm leaves, my entire focal point was the computational aspect of it. How do the Maharishis know in advance the names and other information about the native? After an in-depth study, I conclude: if the supercomputers of ten years from today compute this information, it will take 10,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,000 calculations to collect information of one native. Simply putting, it is mathematically impossible. In the terms of computer science, this is referred to as the NP complete problem.” Here is sample how the name of a person appears in the leaf:
Download or read book What are the potential causes of incorrect predictions of tropical cyclone intensification in medium range ensemble forecasts written by Nico Bauer and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2022-05-12 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical cyclones (TC) are the most destructive weather phenomena in the world. These storm systems are common in large parts of highly populated tropics and subtropics with favorable atmospheric conditions. Society’s vulnerability to them and the associated annual economic costs have risen steadily: mean worldwide insured losses averaged 75 billion USD per year in the 10 years between 2009 and 2019. Cinco et al. (2016) analyzed TC data and observed that in the period from 1951 to 2013, an average of 19.4 TCs entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the Western North Pacific, and nine TCs moved over the islands. Consequently, the Philippines have the highest number of landfalling storms and the highest rate of severe TC worldwide. In turn, the TCs that move over the islands into the South China Sea frequently affect the coast of Vietnam. Through a spatial assessment of TC vulnerability, Nguyen et al. (2019) have demonstrated a high or very high susceptibility in most parts of coastal Vietnam. The most extreme event over the WNP in the last century was Typhoon Haiyan, which caused 6,300 deaths and widespread economic and socioeconomic damage. This significant susceptibility implies the high importance of improving weather forecast models for greater predictive capability. In recent decades, the quality of forecasting tropical cyclone tracks has increased steadily at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast and other numerical weather prediction centers. Nevertheless, intensity predictions still present more significant challenges.
Download or read book Time Predictions written by Torleif Halkjelsvik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-28 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Download or read book Summary of David Robson s The Expectation Effect written by Everest Media, and published by Everest Media LLC. This book was released on 2022-03-21T22:59:00Z with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Please note: This is a companion version & not the original book. Sample Book Insights: #1 The brain is a prediction machine that constructs an elaborate simulation of the world based on its expectations and previous experiences. These simulations usually coincide with objective reality, but they can sometimes stray far from what is actually in the physical world. #2 The brain’s visual cortex is wired with many neural connections feeding in predictions from other regions of the brain. The eye is a small but essential element of your vision, while the rest of what you see is created in the dark within your skull. #3 The brain’s reliance on prediction helps us deal with incredible ambiguity. If you look at the image below, you will struggle to identify anything recognizable. But if you see the original image, it suddenly becomes a lot clearer. #4 The brain can also predict the effects of our movements, so that we don’t jump out of our skin whenever one of our legs brushes against the other. However, there will always be some small errors in each brain’s simulation of the world around us.
Download or read book Fuzzy Logic Dynamics and Machine Prediction for Failure Analysis written by Mushiri, Tawanda and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the fast pace of the modern world it is important, more than ever, for factories to know how and why their machines are failing and what can be done to prevent it. As such, it is imperative that new research is conducted to make sure that factories can operate as efficiently as possible. Fuzzy Logic Dynamics and Machine Prediction for Failure Analysis is an essential reference source for the newest research on the risk assessment matrix, ladder logic, and computerized maintenance management systems (CMMS). Featuring widespread coverage across a variety of related viewpoints and topics, such as the Ishikawa diagram, machinery failure analysis and troubleshooting, model reference adaptive control systems, and proportional–integral–derivative (PID) controllers, this book is ideally designed for professionals, upper-level students, and academics seeking current research on the implementation of fuzzy logic in machine prediction failure.
Download or read book Region and Nation written by James Brennan and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2003-01-30 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of twentieth-century Argentine history is undergoing a radical transformation. Both Argentine and U.S. historians of Argentina are recasting the great debates in the historiography by challenging the Buenos Aires-centered focus of most of the existing historical scholarship and offering a new perspective on the country's modern history. Argentina's supposed 'exceptionalism' is being challenged by these historians. The persistence of political clientilism and oligarchic rule, enclave economies and pre-capitalist social relations, the role of traditional institutions such as the Church and family, intense class conflict and working class militancy, all approximate Argentina closer to the Latin American experience than the previous historiography would suggest. This book is a unique collaboration between Argentine and U.S. historians of this 'other Argentina.'
Download or read book Oxford Handbook of Human Action written by Ezequiel Morsella and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2009 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last decade, there has been a tremendous surge of research on the mechanisms of human action. This volume brings together this new knowledge in a single, concise source, covering most if not all of the basic questions regarding human action: What are the mechanisms by which action plans are acquired (learned), mentally represented, activated, selected, and expressed? The chapters provide up-to-date summaries of the published research on this question, with an emphasis on underlying mechanisms.This 'bible' of action research brings together the current thinking of eminent researchers in the domains of motor control, behavioral and cognitive neuroscience, psycholinguistics, biology, as well as cognitive, developmental, social, and motivational psychology. It represents a determined multidisciplinary effort, spanning across various areas of science as well as national boundaries.
Download or read book When Prophecy Fails written by Leon Festinger and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2013-04-01 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study reported in this volume grew out of some theoretical work, one phase of which bore specifically on the behavior of individuals in social movements that made specific (and unfulfilled) prophecies. We had been forced to depend chiefly on historical records to judge the adequacy of our theoretical ideas until we by chance discovered the social movement that we report in this book. At the time we learned of it, the movement was in mid-career but the prophecy about which it was centered had not yet been disconfirmed. We were understandably eager to undertake a study that could test our theoretical ideas under natural conditions. That we were able to do this study was in great measure due to the support obtained through the Laboratory for Research in Social Relations of the University of Minnesota. This study is a project of the Laboratory and was carried out while we were all members of its staff. We should also like to acknowledge the help we received through a grant-in-aid from the Ford Foundation to one of the authors, a grant that made preliminary exploration of the field situation possible.
Download or read book Database and Expert Systems Applications written by Sven Hartmann and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-08-19 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two volume set of LNCS 11706 and LNCS 11707 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2019, held in Linz, Austria, in August 2019. The 32 full papers presented together with 34 short papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 157 submissions. The papers are organized in the following topical sections: Part I: Big data management and analytics; data structures and data management; management and processing of knowledge; authenticity, privacy, security and trust; consistency, integrity, quality of data; decision support systems; data mining and warehousing. Part II: Distributed, parallel, P2P, grid and cloud databases; information retrieval; Semantic Web and ontologies; information processing; temporal, spatial, and high dimensional databases; knowledge discovery; web services.
Download or read book The Age of Spiritual Machines written by Ray Kurzweil and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2000-01-01 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Bold futurist Ray Kurzweil, author of The Singularity Is Near, offers a framework for envisioning the future of machine intelligence—“a book for anyone who wonders where human technology is going next” (The New York Times Book Review). “Kurzweil offers a thought-provoking analysis of human and artificial intelligence and a unique look at a future in which the capabilities of the computer and the species that invented it grow ever closer.”—BILL GATES Imagine a world where the difference between man and machine blurs, where the line between humanity and technology fades, and where the soul and the silicon chip unite. This is not science fiction. This is the twenty-first century according to Ray Kurzweil, the “restless genius” (The Wall Street Journal), “ultimate thinking machine” (Forbes), and inventor of the most innovative and compelling technology of our era. In his inspired hands, life in the new millennium no longer seems daunting. Instead, it promises to be an age in which the marriage of human sensitivity and artificial intelligence fundamentally alters and improves the way we live. More than just a list of predictions, Kurzweil’s prophetic blueprint for the future guides us through the inexorable advances that will result in: • Computers exceeding the memory capacity and computational ability of the human brain (with human-level capabilities not far behind) • Relationships with automated personalities who will be our teachers, companions, and lovers • Information fed straight into our brains along direct neural pathways Eventually, the distinction between humans and computers will have become sufficiently blurred that when the machines claim to be conscious, we will believe them.
Download or read book Economic Psychology written by Erich Kirchler and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by two leading psychologists, this timely publication is the only up-to-date, English-language textbook on economic psychology. Focused on application, it is an essential resource for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate courses on economic psychology, behavioural economics and social psychology, in both business and psychology departments.
Download or read book Practical Necessity Freedom and History written by David James and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2021-03-04 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By means of careful analysis of relevant writings by Hobbes, Rousseau, Kant, Hegel, and Marx, David James argues that the concept of practical necessity is key to understanding the nature and extent of human freedom. Practical necessity means being, or believing oneself to be, constrained to perform certain actions in the absence (whether real or imagined) of other, more attractive options, or by the high costs involved in pursuing other options. Agents become subject to practical necessity as a result of economic, social, and historical forces over which they have, or appear to have, no effective control, and the extent to which they are subject to it varies according to the amount of economic and social power that one agent possesses relative to other agents. The concept of practical necessity is also shown to take into account how the beliefs and attitudes of social agents are in large part determined by social and historical processes in which they are caught up, and that the type of motivation that we attribute to agents must recognize this. Practical Necessity, Freedom, and History: From Hobbes to Marx shows how Rousseau, Kant, Hegel, and Marx, in contrast to Hobbes, explain the emergence of the conditions of a free society in terms of a historical process that is initially governed by practical necessity. The role that this form of necessity plays in explaining history necessity invites the following question: to what extent are historical agents genuinely subject to both practical and historical necessity?
Download or read book Machine Learning written by Ryszard S. Michalski and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-06-28 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine Learning: An Artificial Intelligence Approach contains tutorial overviews and research papers representative of trends in the area of machine learning as viewed from an artificial intelligence perspective. The book is organized into six parts. Part I provides an overview of machine learning and explains why machines should learn. Part II covers important issues affecting the design of learning programs—particularly programs that learn from examples. It also describes inductive learning systems. Part III deals with learning by analogy, by experimentation, and from experience. Parts IV and V discuss learning from observation and discovery, and learning from instruction, respectively. Part VI presents two studies on applied learning systems—one on the recovery of valuable information via inductive inference; the other on inducing models of simple algebraic skills from observed student performance in the context of the Leeds Modeling System (LMS). This book is intended for researchers in artificial intelligence, computer science, and cognitive psychology; students in artificial intelligence and related disciplines; and a diverse range of readers, including computer scientists, robotics experts, knowledge engineers, educators, philosophers, data analysts, psychologists, and electronic engineers.
