Download or read book Fate Prediction written by Fred Gettings and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Probably Not written by Lawrence N. Dworsky and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-05-23 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offer players no advantage How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seen on a walk through the woods Seemingly random events—coin flip games, the Central Limit Theorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions, Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law—are addressed and treated through key concepts and methods in probability. In addition, fun-to-solve problems including "the shared birthday" and "the prize behind door number one, two, or three" are found throughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice their new probability skills. Requiring little background knowledge of mathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the many daily activities and events that involve random processes and statistics. Combining the mathematics of probability with real-world examples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners and students who would like to learn more about the role of probability and statistics in everyday decision making.
Download or read book Memory as Prediction written by Tomaso Vecchi and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theoretical reflections and analytical observations on memory and prediction, linking these concepts to the role of the cerebellum in higher cognition. What is memory? What is memory for? Where is memory in the brain? Although memory is probably the most studied function in cognition, these fundamental questions remain challenging. We can try to answer the question of memory's purpose by defining the function of memory as remembering the past. And yet this definition is not consistent with the many errors that characterize our memory, or with the phylogenetic and ontogenetic origin of memory. In this book, Tomaso Vecchi and Daniele Gatti argue that the purpose of memory is not to remember the past but to predict the future.
Download or read book Science Fiction and the Prediction of the Future written by Gary Westfahl and published by McFarland. This book was released on 2014-01-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Science fiction has always challenged readers with depictions of the future. Can the genre actually provide glimpses of the world of tomorrow? This collection of fifteen international and interdisciplinary essays examines the genre's predictions and breaks new ground by considering the prophetic functions of science fiction films as well as SF literature. Among the texts and topics examined are classic stories by Murray Leinster, C. L. Moore, and Cordwainer Smith; 2001: A Space Odyssey and its sequels, Japanese anime and Hong Kong cinema; and electronic fiction.
Download or read book Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy written by Avi Goldfarb and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2015-05-08 with total page 510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a small and growing literature that explores the impact of digitization in a variety of contexts, but its economic consequences, surprisingly, remain poorly understood. This volume aims to set the agenda for research in the economics of digitization, with each chapter identifying a promising area of research. "Economics of Digitization "identifies urgent topics with research already underway that warrant further exploration from economists. In addition to the growing importance of digitization itself, digital technologies have some features that suggest that many well-studied economic models may not apply and, indeed, so many aspects of the digital economy throw normal economics in a loop. "Economics of Digitization" will be one of the first to focus on the economic implications of digitization and to bring together leading scholars in the economics of digitization to explore emerging research.
Download or read book Seeing into the Future written by Martin van Creveld and published by Reaktion Books. This book was released on 2020-09-07 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ability to predict the future is essential to modern life. Planning for population growth or changes in weather patterns or forecasting demand for products and managing inventories would be impossible without it. But how have people through the ages gone about making predictions? What were their underlying assumptions, and what methods did they use? Have increased computer power and the newest algorithms improved our success in anticipating the future, or are we still only as good (or as bad) as our ancestors bent over their auguries? From the ancients watching the flight of birds to the murky activities of Google and Facebook today, Seeing into the Future provides vital insight into the past, present, and—of course—future of prediction.
Download or read book Prediction of the Environmental Fate of Chemicals written by Y. Samiullah and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Concern over the effects of chemicals in the environment has been increasing for many years. Environmental contamination by DDT, Aldrin, Dieldrin, mercury, PCBs, organotins and many other sub stances are all part of the public consciousness and have led to widespread attention to this topic. Some of the concerns have arisen because human health has been affected when contaminants have been consumed via the food chain-for instance in the case of 'Minimata disease' in Japan. In other cases, direct effects on other components of ecosystems have given cause for alarm. The toxic effects which any chemical can cause are a function of exposure and innate toxicity, i.e. of the ability to reach in sufficient quantity a site where a biological process can be disrupted and of the tendency to cause disruption when it gets there. The processes by which chemicals reach sites of toxic action are the subject of this book, and are a fundamental consideration in ecotoxi cology. When a chemical enters the environment e.g. via a spillage or in an effluent, it is potentially subject to a wide variety of processes which may eliminate it from the environment completely, modify it into a more or less harmful substance, or transfer it to another part of the environment. The processes involved are complex and highly variable, but it is essential to increase our understanding of them.
Download or read book Parable of the Talents written by Octavia E. Butler and published by Seven Stories Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Parable of the Talents celebrates the classic Butlerian themes of alienation and transcendence, violence and spirituality, slavery and freedom, separation and community, to astonishing effect, in the shockingly familiar, broken world of 2032. Long awaited, Parable of the Talents is the continuation of the travails of Lauren Olamina, the heroine of 1994's Nebula-Prize finalist, bestselling Parable of the Sower. Parable of the Talents is told in the voice of Lauren Olamina's daughter&...from whom she has been separated for most of the girl's life&...with sections in the form of Lauren's journal. Against a background of a war-torn continent, and with a far-right religious crusader in the office of the U.S. presidency, this is a book about a society whose very fabric has been torn asunder, and where the basic physical and emotional needs of people seem almost impossible to meet.
Download or read book Predicting the Future written by Nicholas Rescher and published by SUNY Press. This book was released on 1998-01-01 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the Future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs.
Download or read book Predicting Chemical Toxicity and Fate written by Mark T.D. Cronin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2004-05-10 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSARs) are increasingly used to predict the harmful effects of chemicals to humans and the environment. The increased use of these methods in a variety of areas (academic, industrial, regulatory) results from a realization that very little toxicological or fate data is available on the vast amount of chemicals to which humans and the environment are exposed. Predicting Chemical Toxicity and Fate provides a comprehensive explanation of the state-of-the-art methods that are available to predict the effects of chemicals on humans and the environment. It describes the use of predictive methods to estimate the physiochemical properties, biological activities, and fate of chemicals. The methods described may be used to predict the properties of drugs before their development, and to predict the environmental effects of chemicals. These methods also reduce the cost of product development and the need for animal testing. This book fills an obvious need by providing a comprehensive explanation of these prediction methods. It is a practical book that illustrates the use of these techniques in real life scenarios. This book will demystify QSARs for those students unsure of them, and professionals in environmental toxicology and chemistry will find this a useful reference in their everyday working lives.
Download or read book Future Babble written by Dan Gardner and published by McClelland & Stewart. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Download or read book Predicting Hydrocarbon Fate in the Ocean Processes Parameterizations and Coupled Modeling written by Robert Hetland and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-03-18 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Predicting the Future written by Henry Abarbanel and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-06-12 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system, the author provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and evaluation across disciplines. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model’s consistency with observations is explored.
Download or read book Llewellyn s Complete Book of Predictive Astrology written by Kris Brandt Riske and published by Llewellyn Worldwide. This book was released on 2011-11-08 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Being able to forecast your future gives you a remarkable edge. Whether it's taking advantage of approaching opportunities or preparing for challenges that are heading your way, predictive astrology helps you maximize your innate potential—and make choices that will lead to a more satisfying life. The perfect companion to Llewellyn's Complete Book of Astrology, popular astrologer Kris Brandt Riske lends her signature easy-to-understand style to this definitive guide to predictive astrology. Step by step, she lays out clear instructions for performing each major predictive technique, including solar arcs, progressions, transits, lunar cycles, and planetary returns. She also provides a basic introduction to horary astrology, the method used to obtain answers to specific questions. Discover how to read all elements of a predictive chart and pinpoint when changes in your career, relationships, finances, and other important areas of life are on the horizon. To make learning even easier, this astrology book includes examples that illustrate major events in the lives of the author's clients as well as celebrities such as Marilyn Monroe, Jimmy Carter, Martha Stewart, and Pamela Anderson.
Download or read book Z W i D u Sh Destiny Prediction the Chinese Way English Edition written by Dr. Mauro Purnomo Rahardjo and published by Bhuana Ilmu Populer. This book was released on 2024-05-24 with total page 600 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most important thing about the calculation of 紫微斗数 (Zǐ Wēi Dòu Shù) is the role of the 4 transformation stars called 四化曜 Sì Huà Yào, which becomes the elements of transformation of the main stars according to the passage of time. The transformation that occurs are colouring the dynamics of an individual's life based on the calculation of heavenly stem that mark the dimension of time from decade to decade, and year to year. The calculation of 紫微斗数 (Zǐ Wēi Dòu Shù) is easier to understand as it does not involve complex interpretations of the interactions between elements as is done in the Bazi calculation. The interpretation shown on the life chart is blunt or direct. First published in 2010, the Indonesian version of this book has becomes one of the best-sellers of its time. Years later, with the encouragement of the public, Feng Shui-loving friends, and clients, the Zǐ Wēi Dòu Shù book was re-published with a revised material for a more complete content and has finally been published in an English version. "This book is organized like an encyclopedia so that readers can look up the interpretations directly after knowing their 明盤 Míng Pán (Map of Life). In order to keep the information up-to-date, this book has been revised with the most obvious addition being the interpretations and meanings of the main stars which changes due to the 4 四化曜 Sì Huà Yào in each star. Hopefully this book can add insight, and improve the quality of life of its readers by achieving more luck and happiness, also by avoiding bad or unlucky influences by anticipating them in advance."
Download or read book Fate And Prediction Of Environmental Chemicals In Soils Plants And Aquatic Systems written by Mohammed Mansour and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-02-06 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fate and Prediction of Environmental Chemicals in Soils, Plants, and Aquatic Systems focuses on the chemical persistence and ecotoxicological behavior of pesticides in soil, water, and plants. The book examines recent developments in research on various substances and relays information regarding transport, adsorption, absorption, accumulation, degradation, biological effects, toxicity to aquatic organisms, air pollution, exposure, and risk estimation. Leading international scientists present their advances in analytical methodology and instrumentation in the fields of agrochemicals and environmental chemistry. This useful review of data, methods, and principles will benefit environmental researchers, managers, biologists, chemists, pharmacologists, and others interested in assessing the potential for contamination of soil, air, water, and plants.
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
