Download or read book Facts Frameworks and Forecasts written by Joan McCord and published by Transaction Publishers. This book was released on 1992 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Facts, Frameworks, and Forecasts calls for rethinking the development of criminological theory. In her introduction, Joan McCord argues that the field is ready for new approaches and that its progress depends on a sound factual base. Examining the discipline's research design, methodology, and quantitative analysis efforts, the contributors identify significant advances in criminological theory. This empirical orientation results in a balanced blend of information and speculation. This book contains a comprehensive review. The first chapter describes biological conditions that have theoretical links with criminal behavior—ending with a discussion of how biological and social conditions may interact to influence criminal behavior. Early chapters discuss general issues related to crime. These are followed by expositions of theoretical orientations not typically found in criminological literature. The second half of the book describes seven longitudinal studies in four countries. The authors interpret their data to expose biological, social, and psychological factors they believe may influence criminal behavior. These contributors include: Guenther Knoblich and Roy King, Daniel Glaser, Robert A. Rosellini and Robin L. Lashley, Robert J. Sampson, Ellen S. Cohn and Susan O. White, Joan McCord, L. Rowell Huesmann and Leonard D. Eron, Robert Cairns and Beverly Cairns, Richard E. Tremblay, Patricia Cohen and Judith S. Brook, David P. Farrington and David Magnussen, Britt af Klinteberg, and Hakan Stattin. Facts, Frameworks, and Forecasts addresses the observation of noted criminologist Marvin Wolfgang that criminological theory had stagnated. This groundbreaking work, available in paperback for the first time, is as relevant now as when first published. It should be read by all concerned with data-related approaches to criminology.

Download or read book Films Facts and Forecasts written by L'Estrange Fawcett and published by London, G. Bles. This book was released on 1927 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Facts Frameworks and Forecasts written by Joan McCord and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-09-04 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Facts, Frameworks, and Forecasts calls for rethinking the development of criminological theory. In her introduction, Joan McCord argues that the field is ready for new approaches and that its progress depends on a sound factual base. Examining the discipline's research design, methodology, and quantitative analysis efforts, the contributors identify significant advances in criminological theory. This empirical orientation results in a balanced blend of information and speculation.This book contains a comprehensive review. The first chapter describes biological conditions that have theoretical links with criminal behavior - ending with a discussion of how biological and social conditions may interact to influence criminal behavior. Early chapters discuss general issues related to crime. These are followed by expositions of theoretical orientations not typically found in criminological literature. The second half of the book describes seven longitudinal studies in four countries. The authors interpret their data to expose biological, social, and psychological factors they believe may influence criminal behavior.These contributors include: Guenther Knoblich and Roy King, Daniel Glaser, Robert A. Rosellini and Robin L. Lashley, Robert J. Sampson, Ellen S. Cohn and Susan O. White, Joan McCord, L. Rowell Huesmann and Leonard D. Eron, Robert Cairns and Beverly Cairns, Richard E. Tremblay, Patricia Cohen and Judith S. Brook, David P. Farrington and David Magnussen, Britt af Klinteberg, and Hakan Stattin.Facts, Frameworks, and Forecasts addresses the observation of noted criminologist Marvin Wolfgang that criminological theory had stagnated. This groundbreaking work, available in paperback for the first time, is as relevant now as when first published. It should be read by all concerned with data-related approaches to criminology.

Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.

Download or read book Forecast written by Mark Buchanan and published by A&C Black. This book was released on 2013-01-01 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Positive feedback--when A produces B, which in turn produces even more A--drives not only abrupt climate changes, but also disruptive events in economics and finance, from asset bubbles to debt crises, bank runs, even corporate corruption. But economists, with few exceptions, have ignored this reality for fifty years, holding on to the unreasonable belief in the wisdom of the market. It's past time to be asking how markets really work. Can we replace economic magical thinking with a better means of predicting what the financial future holds, in order to prepare for--or even avoid--the next extreme economic event? Here, physicist and acclaimed science writer Mark Buchanan answers these questions and more in a master lesson on a smarter economics, which accepts that markets act much like weather. Market instability is as natural--and dangerous--as a prairie twister. With Buchanan's help, perhaps we can better govern the markets and weather their storms.

Download or read book Fact Fiction and Forecast written by Nelson Goodman and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1983-03-07 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Here, in a new edition, is Nelson Goodman’s provocative philosophical classic—a book that, according to Science, “raised a storm of controversy” when it was first published in 1954, and one that remains on the front lines of philosophical debate. How is it that we feel confident in generalizing from experience in some ways but not in others? How are generalizations that are warranted to be distinguished from those that are not? Goodman shows that these questions resist formal solution and his demonstration has been taken by nativists like Chomsky and Fodor as proof that neither scientific induction nor ordinary learning can proceed without an a priori, or innate, ordering of hypotheses. In his new foreword to this edition, Hilary Putnam forcefully rejects these nativist claims. The controversy surrounding these unsolved problems is as relevant to the psychology of cognitive development as it is to the philosophy of science. No serious student of either discipline can afford to misunderstand Goodman’s classic argument.

Download or read book Atlas of Forecasts written by Katy Borner and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2021-08-31 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting the future with advanced data models and visualizations. To envision and create the futures we want, society needs an appropriate understanding of the likely impact of alternative actions. Data models and visualizations offer a way to understand and intelligently manage complex, interlinked systems in science and technology, education, and policymaking. Atlas of Forecasts, from the creator of Atlas of Science and Atlas of Knowledge, shows how we can use data to predict, communicate, and ultimately attain desirable futures. Using advanced data visualizations to introduce different types of computational models, Atlas of Forecasts demonstrates how models can inform effective decision-making in education, science, technology, and policymaking. The models and maps presented aim to help anyone understand key processes and outcomes of complex systems dynamics, including which human skills are needed in an artificial intelligence-empowered economy; what progress in science and technology is likely to be made; and how policymakers can future-proof regions or nations. This Atlas offers a driver's seat-perspective for a test-drive of the future.

Download or read book Future Ready written by Steve Morlidge and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-02-19 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

Download or read book Prohibit Crop Price Predictions by Government Officials Or Employees written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Agriculture and published by . This book was released on 1928 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book American Agriculturist written by and published by . This book was released on 1896 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Energy Information Administration s Forecasts for Oil and Gasoline Prices written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book How Accurate Are the Imf s Short Term Forecasts Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook written by Mr.Michael J. Artis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-08-01 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the short-term forecasts for industrial and developing countries produced by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). For the industrial country group, the WEO forecasts for output growth and inflation are satisfactory and pass most conventional tests in forecasting economic developments, although forecast accuracy has not improved over time, and predicting the turning points of the business cycle remains a weakness. For the developing countries, the task of forecasting movements in economic activity is even more difficult and the conventional measures of forecast accuracy are less satisfactory than for the industrial countries.

Download or read book Facts about Sugar written by and published by . This book was released on 1923 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Download or read book SEC Docket written by United States. Securities and Exchange Commission and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 1018 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Public administration written by and published by . This book was released on 1947 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecast for Life written by Ron Craycraft and published by Xulon Press. This book was released on 2005-06 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Your personal forecast is reporting what is expected-in advance-just as weather forecasters do. With encouragement from Forecast For Life, you can reach for the best you can be in Christ!