Download or read book Factors that Can Influence the Onset Time of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones written by Yizhe Bu and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An axisymmetric version of the Bryan Cloud Model (CM1) is used to determine how quickly a coherent and relatively stable tropical cyclone (TC) circulation can form from an initial vortex of nominal intensity. Some of the factors that may influence the onset time of the rapid intensification are examined, including the height of the tropopause, the microphysical parameterizations, the midlevel dryness and the total surface heat flux from the sea surface. Our analyses of these simulations suggest that there are two conditions that need to be satisfied before RI can occur: the vertical structure of the middle troposphere has to become moist adiabatic in the inner core and peripheral convection has to become suppressed or merged with convection in the inner region.
Download or read book The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models written by Kerry Emanuel and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-03-30 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents descriptions of numerical models for testing cumulus in cloud fields. It is divided into six parts. Part I provides an overview of the problem, including descriptions of cumulus clouds and the effects of ensembles of cumulus clouds on mass, momentum, and vorticity distributions. A review of closure assumptions is also provided. A review of "classical" convection schemes in widespread use is provided in Part II. The special problems associated with the representation of convection in mesoscale models are discussed in Part III, along with descriptions of some of the commonly used mesoscale schemes. Part IV covers some of the problems associated with the representation of convection in climate models, while the parameterization of slantwise convection is the subject of Part V.
Download or read book Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones Under Vertical Wind Shear written by Dandan Tao and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation explores the formation and predictability of sheared tropical cyclones (TCs) through a series of convection-permitting ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with different environmental vertical wind shear, sea-surface temperature (SST), and ambient moisture conditions. Small-amplitude random moisture perturbations are introduced in the lower troposphere as the initial-condition uncertainties to generate the ensembles under different environmental conditions. Both the composites and members of ensemble sets are analyzed in this study to examine the mean dynamics of sheared TCs as well as the predictability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification onset. From the ensemble-mean aspect, it is found that the environmental shear can significantly affect the timing of tropical cyclone formation by influencing the spatial distribution of convection and subsequently changing the positive feedback between diabatic heating and the TC vortex primary circulation. Except for the initial spin-up periods, the larger the vertical wind shear, the farther and weaker the convection from the TC center, which leads to a weakening TC vortex circulation and more time is needed to start the onset of rapid intensification (RI). The simulated tropical cyclones cannot start rapid intensification during a 9-day simulation if the shear between 200 hPa and 850 hPa approaches 7.5 m or higher for a constant SST of 27 °C. Increasing SST to 29 °C reduces the tilt magnitude and thus shortens the RI onset time because of faster generation of diabatic heating at the very beginning which strengthens vortex column to resist shear effect. Reduction in the environmental moisture content will eventually lead to weakened convection and delayed or failed precession in the later stages if the TC forms at all. In summary, the development of tropical cyclones is largely depending on the magnitude of vertical wind shear and diabatic heating, which can be further altered by other environmental conditions, such as the sea-surface temperature and ambient moisture content.From the ensemble aspect, it is found that the intrinsic predictability of the RI onset time is getting worse with increasing shear magnitude until the shear magnitude is large enough to prevent the TC formation. Based on ensemble sensitivity and correlation analysis, the RI onset timing within one set is largely related to the vortex tilt magnitude, the diabatic heating distribution and the strength of the vortex primary circulation. It appears that systematic differences amongst the ensemble members begin to arise right after the initial burst of moist convection associated with the incipient vortex. This difference from the randomness inherent in moist convection first changes the TC vortex structure subtly and then leads to the deviations in systematic scales and eventually in the development of the TC vortices. On average, a higher SST has a positive effect on the TC formation and reduces the uncertainty of development under all shear conditions, while a drier environment has a negative impact on the TCs development and either broadens the ensemble spread of RI onset time or prevents the storm from forming when the shear-induced tilt is large. It is also found that the shear modulation is quite significant that the effect of randomness of moist convection at the very beginning is overwritten by the difference in shear magnitudes.
Download or read book Environmental Influences on Rapid Intensity Changes in Tropical Cyclones a Case Study written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hurricane Bret underwent a rapid intensification (RI) and subsequent weakening between 1200 UTC August 21 and 1200 UTC August 22, 1999, before it made landfall as a category 3 hurricane on the Texas coast 12 h later. Its minimum sea-level pressure dropped 35 hPa from 979 to 944 hPa within 24 h. During this period, aircraft of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) flew several research missions that sampled the environment and inner core of the storm. These data sets combined with gridded data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Global Model and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalyses are used to document the atmospheric and oceanic environments of the tropical cyclone (TC) as well as their relation to the observed structural and intensity changes. Bret's RI was linked to movement over a warm ocean eddy and high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico coupled with a simultaneous decrease in vertical wind shear. SSTs at the beginning of the storm2s RI were approximately 29 degrees Celcius and steadily increased to 30 degrees Celcius as it moved northward. The vertical wind shear relaxed to less than 10 kt during this time. Mean values of oceanic heat content (OHC) beneath the storm were about 20 % higher at the beginning of the RI period than 6 h before. Cooling of near-coastal shelf waters (to between 25 and 26 degrees Celcius) by pre-storm mixing combined with an increase in vertical wind shear were responsible for the weakening of the storm. The available observations suggested that intrusion of dry air into the circulation core did not contribute to the intensity evolution. In order to quantitatively describe the influence of environmental conditions on the intensity forecast, sensitivity studies with the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model were conducted. Four different cases with modified vertical wind shear and/or SSTs were studied. Differences between all cases were relatively small due to the model design, but much cooler prescribed SSTs resulted in the greatest intensity changes. Model runs with idealized environmental conditions demonstrated the model2s general lack of capability to forecast RIs and also stressed the need of more accurate SST observations in the coastal shelf regions when predicting the intensity of landfalling TCs.
Download or read book Hurricanes and Typhoons written by Richard J. Murnane and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys the past, present, and potential future variability of hurricanes and typhoons on a variety of timescales using newly developed approaches based on geological and archival records, in addition to more traditional approaches based on the analysis of the historical record of tropical cyclone tracks. A unique aspect of the book is that it provides an overview of the developing field of paleotempestology, which uses geological, biological, and documentary evidence to reconstruct prehistoric changes in hurricane landfall. The book also presents a particularly wide sampling of ongoing efforts to extend the best track data sets using historical material from many sources, including Chinese archives, British naval logbooks, Spanish colonial records, and early diaries from South Carolina. The book will be of particular interest to tropical meteorologists, geologists, and climatologists as well as to the catastrophe reinsurance industry, graduate students in meteorology, and public employees active in planning and emergency management.
Download or read book El Ni o Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Download or read book Current Topics in Tropical Cyclone Research written by Anthony Lupo and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2020-11-04 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights some of the most recent research in the climatological behavior of tropical cyclones as well as the dynamics, predictability, and character of these storms as derived using remote sensing techniques. Also included in this book is a review of the interaction between tropical cyclones and coastal ocean dynamics in the Northwest Pacific and an evaluation of the performance of CMIP6 models in replicating the current climate using accumulated cyclone energy. The latter demonstrates how the climate may change in the future. This book can be a useful resource for those studying the character of these storms, especially those with the goal of anticipating their future occurrence in both the short and climatological range and their associated hazards.
Download or read book Monsoon Meteorology written by Chih-Pei Chang and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1987 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Very Good,No Highlights or Markup,all pages are intact.
Download or read book Statistics for Research written by Shirley Dowdy and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-26 with total page 646 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the Second Edition "Statistics for Research has other fine qualities besides superior organization. The examples and the statistical methods are laid out with unusual clarity by the simple device of using special formats for each. The book was written with great care and is extremely user-friendly."—The UMAP Journal Although the goals and procedures of statistical research have changed little since the Second Edition of Statistics for Research was published, the almost universal availability of personal computers and statistical computing application packages have made it possible for today's statisticians to do more in less time than ever before. The Third Edition of this bestselling text reflects how the changes in the computing environment have transformed the way statistical analyses are performed today. Based on extensive input from university statistics departments throughout the country, the authors have made several important and timely revisions, including: Additional material on probability appears early in the text New sections on odds ratios, ratio and difference estimations, repeated measure analysis, and logistic regression New examples and exercises, many from the field of the health sciences Printouts of computer analyses on all complex procedures An accompanying Web site illustrating how to use SAS® and JMP® for all procedures The text features the most commonly used statistical techniques for the analysis of research data. As in the earlier editions, emphasis is placed on how to select the proper statistical procedure and how to interpret results. Whenever possible, to avoid using the computer as a "black box" that performs a mysterious process on the data, actual computational procedures are also given. A must for scientists who analyze data, professionals and researchers who need a self-teaching text, and graduate students in statistical methods, Statistics for Research, Third Edition brings the methodology up to date in a very practical and accessible way.
Download or read book El Ni o and the Southern Oscillation written by Henry F. Diaz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-11-09 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a recurrent feature of the climate in tropical regions. In this volume leading experts summarize information gained over the past decade concerning diverse aspects of ENSO, which have led to marked improvements in our ability to forecast its development months or seasons in advance. This volume compares ENSO's modern morphology and variability with its recent historic and prehistoric behaviour. It expands and updates Diaz and Markgraf's earlier volume El Niño: Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation (1992, Cambridge University Press). The volume will be of importance to a broad range of scientists in meteorology, oceanography, hydrology, geosciences, ecology, public health, emergency management response and mitigation, and decision-making. It will also be used as a supplementary textbook and reference source in graduate courses in environmental studies.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis Using Satellite Data written by Vernon F. Dvorak and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book General Meteorology written by Horace Robert Byers and published by . This book was released on 1944 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Download or read book Global Perspectives On Tropical Cyclones From Science To Mitigation written by Johnny C L Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010-04-30 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
Download or read book Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-05-28 with total page 593 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
Download or read book Advanced Numerical Modeling and Data Assimilation Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Predictions written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-21 with total page 762 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals primarily with monitoring, prediction and understanding of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). It was envisioned to serve as a teaching and reference resource at universities and academic institutions for researchers and post-graduate students. It has been designed to provide a broad outlook on recent advances in observations, assimilation and modeling of TCs with detailed and advanced information on genesis, intensification, movement and storm surge prediction. Specifically, it focuses on (i) state-of-the-art observations for advancing TC research, (ii) advances in numerical weather prediction for TCs, (iii) advanced assimilation and vortex initialization techniques, (iv) ocean coupling, (v) current capabilities to predict TCs, and (vi) advanced research in physical and dynamical processes in TCs. The chapters in the book are authored by leading international experts from academic, research and operational environments. The book is also expected to stimulate critical thinking for cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, and graduate and post-graduate students to carry out future research in the field of TCs.
