Download or read book Extremes on the Discounted Aggregate Claims in a Time Dependent Risk Model written by Alexandru Vali Asimit and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents an extension of the classical compound Poisson risk model for which the inter-claim time and the forthcoming claim amount are no longer independent random variables. Asymptotic tail probabilities for the discounted aggregate claims are presented when the force of interest is constant and the claim amounts are heavy tail distributed random variables. Furthermore, we derive asymptotic finite time ruin probabilities, as well as asymptotic approximations for some common risk measures associated with the discounted aggregate claims. A simulation study is performed in order to validate the results obtained in the free interest risk model.
Download or read book Analysis of Time Dependent Aggregate Claims written by Di Xu and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimation of aggregate claim amounts is a fundamental task in Actuarial science, based on which risk theory, ruin theory and reinsurance theory can be studied. Properties, including moments, Laplace transforms, and probability functions of aggregate claims have been extensively studied by many scholars under various models (see, e.g., Hogg and Klugman (1984)). The main classical model is the compound Poisson risk model, where the interclaim times are independent of the claim severities. Scholars started to explore this problem by considering more general counting processes, such as mixed Poisson processes (e.g., Willmot (1986)) and renewal processes (e.g., Andersen (1957)). Afterwards, the independence assumptions on multiple risk factors were gradually relaxed. Additionally, the observation times are further randomized to fit the reality better. In this thesis, we propose to analyze the aggregate claims until both randomized and deterministic time horizons by incorporating inflation and payment (reporting) delays into the analysis. Dependence between the claim occurrence times (also interclaim times) and claim severities is further considered. A comprehensive review on the study of the aggregate claims is given in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 introduces the relevant preliminary knowledge on the aggregate models and techniques used in this thesis. Chapter 3 examines the Laplace transforms of the aggregate claims under a nonhomogeneous birth process, which covers Poisson, mixed Poisson and linear contagion model. Furthermore, the claim occurrence times influence the distribution of the claim severities. Under some assumptions on the counting process, the time-dependent aggregate claims are represented as a random sum of independent and identically distributed random variables. The aggregate incurred but not reported (IBNR) claims are studied in Chapter 4 due to their essential role in reserving. A recursive formula is identified for the moments of the total discounted IBNR claims under a generalized renewal risk model where the interclaim times, claim severities and random reporting lags have an arbitrary dependence structure. The probability mass function of the number of IBNR claims is obtained under certain assumptions on the marginal distributions of the interclaim times, claim severities and reporting lags. To address the influence of the economic environment, a Markovian arrival process is introduced in Chapter 5 to analyze the IBNR claim problem. A straightforward representation and a closed-form expression are identified for the moments of the total discounted IBNR claim amount and numbers respectively without adding much difficulty to the analysis. Instead of a deterministic time horizon as considered in Chapters 3, 4 and 5, attention has also been paid to the analysis under a randomized observation time (see, e.g., Stanford et al. (2005) and Ramaswami et al. (2008)). Randomization in the time horizon usually leads to more tractable expressions for given quantities (e.g., Albrecher et al. (2011, 2013)). However, in the case of time-dependent aggregate claims, it only adds extra integration to the expressions of relevant quantities. In this thesis, instead of working with general random time horizons, we work with some specific random time horizons, i.e. two-sided exit time, in Chapter 6. The two-sided exit problem has been the subject matter of risk management analysis to better understand the dynamic of various insurance risk processes. In the two-sided exit setting, the discounted aggregate claims are investigated under a dependent renewal process (also known as dependent Sparre Andersen risk process). Utilizing Laplace transforms, we identify the fundamental solutions to a given integral equation, which will be shown to play a role similar to the scale matrix for spectrally-negative Markov-additive processes (e.g., Kyprianou and Palmowski (2008)). Explicit expressions and recursions are then identified for the two-sided probabilities and the moments of the aggregate claims respectively. Chapter 7 ends the thesis by some concluding remarks and directions for future research.
Download or read book RUIN ANALYSIS OF CORRELATED AG written by Lai-Mei Wan and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Ruin Analysis of Correlated Aggregate Claims Models" by Lai-mei, Wan, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Abstract of thesis entitled RUIN ANALYSIS OF CORRELATED AGGREGATE CLAIMS MODELS Submitted by WAN LAI MEI for the degree of Master of Philosophy at The University of Hong Kong in January 2005 In recent years, study of risk models with dependent classes of insurance business has become a popular topic in actuarial science. The main theme of this the- sis is to explore more general models which include various types of dependence structures among classes in a book of insurance business. Specifically, ruin anal- ysis was performed on two correlated aggregate claims models for a book of m (m>= 2) dependent classes of insurance business. Firstly, a discrete-time risk model was considered with m dependent classes of business in which a time-series approach was adopted. The claim processes of the m classes were assumed to follow a multivariate autoregressive time-series model of order 1. In this framework, different classes were dependent due to the time-series structure and the correlation among current claims. The probability of ruin for the risk model was studied. In the case of m = 2, simulation studiesfor absolutely continuous bivariate exponential (ACBVE) claim distribution and bivariate gamma claim distribution were performed. Next, a continuous-time risk model with m dependent classes of insurance business was investigated. The claim-number processes of the m classes were correlated due to the so-called thinning dependence together with a common shock. Various aspects of the proposed model were examined, and the impact of therelationofdependenceviatheadjustmentcoefficientwasthenstudied. Inthe bivariate case (m = 2), a numerical study was performed for exponential claim distribution and simulation studies were carried out for non-exponential claim distributions. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3070570 Subjects: Risk (Insurance) Probabilities Insurance claims - Mathematical models Insurance - Mathematics
Download or read book Probability Combinatorics and Control written by Andrey Kostogryzov and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2020-04-15 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilistic and combinatorial techniques are often used for solving advanced problems. This book describes different probabilistic modeling methods and their applications in various areas, such as artificial intelligence, offshore platforms, social networks, and others. It aims to educate how modern probabilistic and combinatorial models may be created to formalize uncertainties; to train how new probabilistic models can be generated for the systems of complex structures; to describe the correct use of the presented models for rational control in systems creation and operation; and to demonstrate analytical possibilities and practical effects for solving different system problems on each life cycle stage.
Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
Download or read book An Introduction to Heavy Tailed and Subexponential Distributions written by Sergey Foss and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Heavy-tailed probability distributions are an important component in the modeling of many stochastic systems. They are frequently used to accurately model inputs and outputs of computer and data networks and service facilities such as call centers. They are an essential for describing risk processes in finance and also for insurance premia pricing, and such distributions occur naturally in models of epidemiological spread. The class includes distributions with power law tails such as the Pareto, as well as the lognormal and certain Weibull distributions. One of the highlights of this new edition is that it includes problems at the end of each chapter. Chapter 5 is also updated to include interesting applications to queueing theory, risk, and branching processes. New results are presented in a simple, coherent and systematic way. Graduate students as well as modelers in the fields of finance, insurance, network science and environmental studies will find this book to be an essential reference.
Download or read book Closure Properties for Heavy Tailed and Related Distributions written by Remigijus Leipus and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-10-16 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a compact and systematic overview of closure properties of heavy-tailed and related distributions, including closure under tail equivalence, convolution, finite mixing, maximum, minimum, convolution power and convolution roots, and product-convolution closure. It includes examples and counterexamples that give an insight into the theory and provides numerous references to technical details and proofs for a deeper study of the subject. The book will serve as a useful reference for graduate students, young researchers, and applied scientists.
Download or read book Ruin Probabilities written by S?ren Asmussen and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 621 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramr?Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber?Shiu functions and dependence.
Download or read book Risk and Insurance written by Søren Asmussen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-04-17 with total page 505 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook provides a broad overview of the present state of insurance mathematics and some related topics in risk management, financial mathematics and probability. Both non-life and life aspects are covered. The emphasis is on probability and modeling rather than statistics and practical implementation. Aimed at the graduate level, pointing in part to current research topics, it can potentially replace other textbooks on basic non-life insurance mathematics and advanced risk management methods in non-life insurance. Based on chapters selected according to the particular topics in mind, the book may serve as a source for introductory courses to insurance mathematics for non-specialists, advanced courses for actuarial students, or courses on probabilistic aspects of risk. It will also be useful for practitioners and students/researchers in related areas such as finance and statistics who wish to get an overview of the general area of mathematical modeling and analysis in insurance.
Download or read book Regular Variation written by N. H. Bingham and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1989-06-15 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive account of the theory and applications of regular variation.
Download or read book Modelling Extremal Events written by Paul Embrechts and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A reader's first impression on leafing through this book is of the large number of graphs and diagrams, used to illustrate shapes of distributions...and to show real data examples in various ways. A closer reading reveals a nice mix of theory and applications, with the copious graphical illustrations alluded to. Such a mixture is of course dear to the heart of the applied probabilist/statistician, and should impress even the most ardent theorists." --MATHEMATICAL REVIEWS
Download or read book Non Life Insurance Mathematics written by Thomas Mikosch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-04-21 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Offers a mathematical introduction to non-life insurance and, at the same time, to a multitude of applied stochastic processes. It gives detailed discussions of the fundamental models for claim sizes, claim arrivals, the total claim amount, and their probabilistic properties....The reader gets to know how the underlying probabilistic structures allow one to determine premiums in a portfolio or in an individual policy." --Zentralblatt für Didaktik der Mathematik
Download or read book Risk Theory written by Hanspeter Schmidli and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-04-04 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an overview of classical actuarial techniques, including material that is not readily accessible elsewhere such as the Ammeter risk model and the Markov-modulated risk model. Other topics covered include utility theory, credibility theory, claims reserving and ruin theory. The author treats both theoretical and practical aspects and also discusses links to Solvency II. Written by one of the leading experts in the field, these lecture notes serve as a valuable introduction to some of the most frequently used methods in non-life insurance. They will be of particular interest to graduate students, researchers and practitioners in insurance, finance and risk management.
Download or read book Generalized Linear Models for Insurance Rating written by Mark Goldburd and published by . This book was released on 2016-06-08 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Model Rules of Professional Conduct written by American Bar Association. House of Delegates and published by American Bar Association. This book was released on 2007 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Model Rules of Professional Conduct provides an up-to-date resource for information on legal ethics. Federal, state and local courts in all jurisdictions look to the Rules for guidance in solving lawyer malpractice cases, disciplinary actions, disqualification issues, sanctions questions and much more. In this volume, black-letter Rules of Professional Conduct are followed by numbered Comments that explain each Rule's purpose and provide suggestions for its practical application. The Rules will help you identify proper conduct in a variety of given situations, review those instances where discretionary action is possible, and define the nature of the relationship between you and your clients, colleagues and the courts.
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Download or read book Dependence Modeling written by Harry Joe and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. Introduction : Dependence modeling / D. Kurowicka -- 2. Multivariate copulae / M. Fischer -- 3. Vines arise / R.M. Cooke, H. Joe and K. Aas -- 4. Sampling count variables with specified Pearson correlation : A comparison between a naive and a C-vine sampling approach / V. Erhardt and C. Czado -- 5. Micro correlations and tail dependence / R.M. Cooke, C. Kousky and H. Joe -- 6. The Copula information criterion and Its implications for the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator / S. Gronneberg -- 7. Dependence comparisons of vine copulae with four or more variables / H. Joe -- 8. Tail dependence in vine copulae / H. Joe -- 9. Counting vines / O. Morales-Napoles -- 10. Regular vines : Generation algorithm and number of equivalence classes / H. Joe, R.M. Cooke and D. Kurowicka -- 11. Optimal truncation of vines / D. Kurowicka -- 12. Bayesian inference for D-vines : Estimation and model selection / C. Czado and A. Min -- 13. Analysis of Australian electricity loads using joint Bayesian inference of D-vines with autoregressive margins / C. Czado, F. Gartner and A. Min -- 14. Non-parametric Bayesian belief nets versus vines / A. Hanea -- 15. Modeling dependence between financial returns using pair-copula constructions / K. Aas and D. Berg -- 16. Dynamic D-vine model / A. Heinen and A. Valdesogo -- 17. Summary and future directions / D. Kurowicka
