Download or read book Extracting Market Expectations from Options Prices written by Áron Gereben and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Market Expectations and Option Prices written by Martin Mandler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a slightly revised version of my doctoral dissertation which has been accepted by the Department of Economics and Business Administration of the Justus-Liebig-Universitat Giessen in July 2002. I am indebted to my advisor Prof. Dr. Volbert Alexander for encouraging and supporting my research. I am also grateful to the second member of the doctoral committee, Prof. Dr. Horst Rinne. Special thanks go to Dr. Ralf Ahrens for providing part of the data and to my colleague Carsten Lang, who spent much time reading the complete first draft. Wetzlar, January 2003 Martin Mandler Contents 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part I Theoretical Foundations 2 Arbitrage Pricing and Risk-Neutral Probabilities........ .. 7 2.1 Arbitrage Pricing in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model... . . .. . 7 2.2 The Equivalent Martingale Measure and Risk-Neutral Valuation ............................................... 11 2.3 Extracting Risk-Neutral Probabilities from Option Prices. . . .. 13 2.4 Summary............................................... 15 Appendix 2A: The Valuation Function in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model .................................................. 16 Appendix 2B: Some Further Details on the Replication Strategy ... 21 3 Survey of the Related Literature .......................... 23 3.1 The Information Content of Forward and Futures Prices. . . .. . 24 3.2 The Information Content of Implied Volatilities ............. 25 3.2.1 Implied Volatilities and the Risk-Neutral Probability Density .......................................... 27 3.2.2 The Term Structure of Implied Volatilities. . . . . . . .. . . 29 . 3.2.3 The Forecasting Information in Implied Volatilities. . .. 30 3.2.4 Implied Correlations as Forecasts of Future Correlations 43 VIII Contents 3.3 The Skewness Premium ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . 45 . . . . . . .

Download or read book Extracting Market Expectations from Traded Option Prices an Empirical Test of the Stochastic Volatility Model on FTSE 100 Index Options written by Christos Christitsas and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Extracting Market Expectations from Traded Options Prices a Comparative Assessment of the Black Scholes and Stochastic Volatility Models written by Rajeev Vohora and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Extraction of Market Expectations from Option Prices written by Carlos Alberto Palomino Lazo and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2011-09-30 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book estimates risk neutral parameters of a jump diffusion model, as in Bates (1991), implicit in the option prices on the S&P500 futures over the period 2006-2008. Additionally, it investigates the extent to which market participants anticipated the financial market crash of 2008. We find that high levels of skewness premium are detectable in the short maturity out-of-the-money put options as early as July 2007. Nevertheless, market expectations of an extreme downturn subsided after the collapse of Bear Stearns in April 2008. Overall, our findings indicate that the estimated parameters show the presence of crash expectations prior to September 2008 but there is no evidence that the magnitude of the crash was predictable.

Download or read book Extracting Market Expectations from Options Prices written by Hisashi Nakamura and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices written by Hisashi Nakamura and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Extracting Market Expectations from Traded Options Prices written by Eleni Theodorou and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Deriving Market Expectations for the Euro Dollar Exchange Rate from Option Prices written by Mr.Noureddine Krichene and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2004-10-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Option prices provide valuable information on market expectations. This paper attempts to extract market expectations, as conveyed by an implied risk-neutral probability distribution, from option prices for the dollar-euro exchange rate. Returns' volatilities are inferred from observed and interpolated option prices. To address robustness, two distributions, one from actual data and the other from interpolated data, were computed. The main conclusion of the paper is that traders have wide-ranging expectations, and large movements in either direction would not occur as a surprise. The main implication for monetary policy is that should markets become too volatile, then intervention may be required.

Download or read book Market Expectations and Option Prices written by Alejandro García and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Security prices contain valuable information that can be used to make a wide variety of economic decisions. To extract this information, a model is required that relates market prices to the desired information, and that ideally can be implemented using timely and low-cost methods. The authors explore two models applied to option prices to extract the risk-neutral probability density function (R-PDF) of the expected Can$/US$ exchange rate. Each of the two models extends the Black-Scholes model by using a mixture of two lognormals for the terminal distribution, instead of a single lognormal: one mixed lognormal imposes a specific stochastic process for the underlying asset, and the other does not. The contribution of the paper is to propose a simple methodology to build R-PDFs with a constant time to maturity in the absence of option prices for the maturity of interest. The authors apply this methodology and find that the two models provide similar results for the degree of uncertainty (i.e., the variance) surrounding the future level of the exchange rate, but differ on the likely direction of the exchange rate movements (i.e., the skewness).

Download or read book Measuring Expectations in Options Markets written by Abel Rodriguez and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extracting market expectations has always been an important issue when making national policies and investment decisions in financial markets. In option markets, the most popular way has been to extract implied volatilities to assess the future variability of the underlying with the use of the Black amp; Scholes formula. In this manuscript, we propose a novel way to extract the whole time varying distribution of the market implied asset price from option prices. We use a Bayesian nonparametric method that makes use of the Sethuraman representation for Dirichlet processes in order to take into account the evolution of probability distributions in time. As an illustration, we present the analysis of options on the Samp;P500 index.

Download or read book Extracting Market Expectations from Options Prices written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments written by Paul Söderlind and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates and inflation. More recently, these methods have been refined to rely on implied forward interest rates, so as to extract expected future time-paths. Very recently only the means but the whole (risk neutral) probability distribution from a set of option prices.

Download or read book Market Expectations and Option Prices Evidence for the Can written by Bank of Canada and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instrument written by Lars E. O. Svensson and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates and inflation. More recently, these methods have been refined to rely on implied forward interewst rates, so as to extract expected future time paths. Very recently, methods have been designed to extract not only the means but the whole (risk neutral) probability distribution from a set of option prices.

Download or read book Risk adjusted Information Content in Option Prices written by Durga Prasad Panda and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are many measures to price an option. This dissertation investigates a risk-adjusted measure to price the option with an alternative numeraire that retains the expected return of the underlying in the pricing equation. This model is consistent with the Black-Scholes model when their assumptions are imposed and is consistent with the standard capital asset pricing model. Unlike many asset pricing models that rely on historical data, we provide a forward-looking approach for extracting the ex ante return distribution parameters of the underlying from option prices. Using this framework and observing the market prices of options, we jointly extract implied return and implied volatility of the underlying assets for different days-to-maturity using a grid search method of global optima. Our approach does not use a preference structure or information about the market such as the market risk premium to estimate the expected return of the underlying asset. We find that when there are not many near-the-money traded options available our approach provides a better solution to forecast future volatility than the Black-Scholes implied volatility. Further, our results show that option prices reflect a higher expectation of stock return in the short-term, but a lower expectation of stock return in the long-term that is robust to many alternative tests. We further find that ex ante expected returns have a positive and significant cross-sectional relation with ex ante betas even in the presence of firm size, book-to-market, and momentum. The cross-sectional regression estimate of ex ante market risk premium has a statistical significance as well as an economic significance in that it contains significant forward-looking information on future macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore, in an ex ante world, firm size is still negatively significant, but book-to-market is also negatively significant, which is the opposite of the ex post results. Our risk-adjusted approach provides a framework for extraction of ex ante information from option prices with alternative assumptions of stochastic processes. In this vein, we provide a risk-adjusted stochastic volatility pricing model and discuss its estimation process.

Download or read book Extracting Market Expectations from Potion Prices written by Hisashi Nakamura and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: