Download or read book External Shocks Policies and Tail Shifts in Real Exchange Rates written by Mr. Nicolas E Magud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-23 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use panel quantile regressions to study extreme (rather than average) movements in the distribution of the real effective exchange rate (REER) of small open economies. We document that global uncertainty (VIX) and global financial conditions (U.S. monetary policy) shocks have a strong impact on the distribution of the REER changes, with larger impacts in the tails of the distribution, and especially in economies with shallower FX markets, lower central bank credibility, and higher credit risk (i.e., weaker macro fundamentals). Foreign exchange intervention (FXI) partially offsets the impact of these shocks, especially in the left tail (large depreciations) and particularly in economies with weaker fundamentals but, more importantly, when FXI is used sporadically. Thus, our results highlight the importance of deepening FX markets, improving central bank credibility, and strengthening macro fundamentals against the potential dynamic trade-offs of overreliance on a policy that would exacerbate the previously mentioned frictions. While our results point to low effectiveness of capital flow management in preventing large REER movements, they seem to enable more impactful foreign exchange intervention in the immediate aftermath of shocks.
Download or read book The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The accumulation of large foreign asset positions by many central banks through sustained foreign exchange (FX) intervention has raised questions about its associated fiscal costs. This paper clarifies conceptual issues regarding how to measure these costs both from an ex-post and an ex-ante (relevant for decision making) perspective, and estimates both marginal and total costs for 73 countries over the period 2002-13. We find ex-ante marginal costs for the median emerging market economy (EME) in the inter-quartile range of 2-5.5 percent per year; while ex-ante total costs (of sustaining FX positions) in the range of 0.2-0.7 percent of GDP per year for light interveners and 0.3-1.2 percent of GDP per year for heavy interveners. These estimates indicate that fiscal costs of sustained FX intervention (via expanding central bank balance sheets) are not negligible.
Download or read book External Shocks the Real Exchange Rate and Tax Policy written by Stephen P. Tokarick and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignment written by Jacob A. Frenkel and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we analyze several proposals for reducing the volatility and/or misalignment of key-currency exchange rates. The proposals examined are a system of target zones, the imposition of controls or taxes on international capital flows, and a strengthening of international coordination over economic policies. We also review key characteristics of the behavior of major-currency exchange rates over the period of floating rates and examine the various criteria or standards for drawing inferences about excess volatility and misalignment. In evaluating exchange rate volatility, attention is directed toward the influence of the exchange rate regime, to the behavior of fundamentals, to the volatility of both goods prices and other asset prices, to the costs of exchange rate volatility, and to the nature of shocks facing the economy. Turning to misalignment, we examine the strengths and weaknesses of the purchasing-power-parity approach, of the underlying balance approach, and of the sustainability approach. We argue that inferences about excess exchange rate volatility and misalignment are subject to wide margins of error and that the exchange rate experience of the past 15 years is subject to multiple interpretations.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Overvaluation and Trade Protection written by Howard J. Shatz and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Lessons from world experience about the consequences of exchange rate overvaluation (the frequent cause of trade crises), the consequences of trying to defend an overvalued exchange rate, and the most appropriate policies for resolving an overvaluation"--Cover.
Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Levels Productivity and Demand Shocks written by Menzie David Chinn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-05-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, traded and nontraded productivity levels, and government spending for 14 OECD countries, using recently developed panel cointegration tests. The results indicate that under certain assumptions it is easier to detect cointegration in panel data than in the available time series; moreover, the rate of reversion to long-run equilibrium is estimated with greater precision. Using the model augmented by oil prices, we find that in 1991 (the last year productivity data are available) there is less overvaluation of the U.S. dollar than that implied by a naive version of purchasing power parity.
Download or read book When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.
Download or read book External Shocks Purchasing Power Parity and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Exchange Rate Responses to Exogenous Shocks in Developing Countries written by Mohsin S. Khan and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes written by Mr.Kenneth Rogoff and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-12-01 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.
Download or read book Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers written by Sebastian Edwards and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we analyze empirically the effect of terms of trade shocks on economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes. We are particularly interested in investigating whether terms of trade disturbances have a smaller effect on growth in countries with a flexible exchange rate regime, than in countries with a more rigid exchange rate arrangement. We also analyze whether negative and positive terms of trade shocks have asymmetric effects on growth, and whether the magnitude of these asymmetries depends on the exchange rate regime. We find evidence suggesting that terms of trade shocks get amplified in countries that have more rigid exchange rate regimes. We also find evidence of an asymmetric response to terms of trade shocks: the output response is larger for negative than for positive shocks. Finally, we find evidence supporting the view that, after controlling for other factors, countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes grow faster than countries with fixed exchange rates.
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks A Risk based Framework written by Romain Lafarguette and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-12 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Policy the Real Exchange Rate and Inflation written by Miguel Alberto Kiguel and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Attempts to achieve real depreciation through continuous devaluation or by accelerating the rate of crawl - when not supported by changes in other policies and in the underlying conditions - usually end up increasing inflation, yet remain ineffective in changing the real exchange rate.
Download or read book FX Funding Risks and Exchange Rate Volatility Korea s Case written by Mr.Jack Ree and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-07 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines how exchange rate volatility and Korean banks’ foreign exchange liquidity mismatches interacted with each other during the Global Financial Crisis, and whether the vulnerability stemming from this interaction has been reduced since then. Structural and cyclical changes after the crisis, including decreasing demand for currency hedges and the diversifying investor base for bonds, point to a possible weakening of the interaction mechanism; and we find evidences are strongly supportive of this.
Download or read book Toward an Integrated Policy Framework written by International Monetary Fund and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-08 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers often face difficult tradeoffs in pursuing domestic and external stabilization objectives. The paper reflects staff’s work to advance the understanding of the policy options and tradeoffs available to policymakers in a systematic and analytical way. The paper recognizes that the optimal path of the IPF tools depends on structural characteristics and fiscal policies. The operational implications of IPF findings require careful consideration. Developing safeguards to minimize the risk of inappropriate use of IPF policies will be essential. Staff remains guided by the Fund’s Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows.
Download or read book Capital Flows at Risk Taming the Ebbs and Flows written by Mr.R. G Gelos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-20 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
Download or read book The ASEAN Way written by Ms.Ana Corbacho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-10-02 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.
