Download or read book External Adjustment in Oil Exporters written by Mr.Alberto Behar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-08 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the decline in oil prices, many oil exporters face the need to improve their external balances. Special characteristics of oil exporters make the exchange rate an ineffective instrument for this purpose and give fiscal policy a sizeable role. These conclusions are supported by regression analysis of the determinants of the current account balance and of the trade balance. The results show little or no relationship with the exchange rate and, especially for the less diversified oil exporters (including the Gulf Cooperation Council), a strong relationship with the fiscal balance or government spending.
Download or read book External Adjustment in Oil Exporters written by Alberto Behar and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the decline in oil prices, many oil exporters face the need to improve their external balances. Special characteristics of oil exporters make the exchange rate an ineffective instrument for this purpose and give fiscal policy a sizeable role. These conclusions are supported by regression analysis of the determinants of the current account balance and of the trade balance. The results show little or no relationship with the exchange rate and, especially for the less diversified oil exporters, a strong relationship with the fiscal balance or government spending.
Download or read book Oil Shocks and External Balances written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-05-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries' external balance, including the oil and non-oil trade balances, the current account, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975-2004. We explicitly take a global perspective. In addition to the U.S., the Euro area and Japan, we consider a number of country groups including oil exporters and middle-income oil-importing economies. We find that the effect of oil shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the nonoil trade balance, and differs systematically between the U.S. and other oil importing countries. Using the Lane-Milesi-Ferretti NFA data set, we document the presence of large and systematic (if not always statistically significant) valuation effects in response to oil shocks, not only for the U.S., but also for other oil-importing economies and for oil exporters. Our estimates suggest that increased international financial integration will tend to cushion the effect of oil shocks on NFA positions for major oil exporters and the U.S., but may amplify it for other oil importers.
Download or read book Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil written by Mr.Martin Sommer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-06-09 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the challenges posed by low oil prices in the MENA and CCA regions, the adjustment policies adopted so far, and remaining adjustment needs and future risks.
Download or read book Oil Shocks and External Adjustment written by Martin Bodenstein and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Exchange Rate Assessments written by Mr.Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries "excessive"? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address these questions. Price-based methodologies (based on the time series of real effective exchange rates) identify a strong link between the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, but have relatively limited explanatory power. On the other hand, an empirical model of the current account, which fits oil exporting countries' data well, and an intertemporal model that takes into account the stock of oil reserves provide useful benchmarks for oil exporters' external balances.
Download or read book Cyclical Fiscal Rules for Oil Exporting Countries written by Stephen Snudden and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-06 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural budget-balance rules with countercyclical elements appear well suited to stabilize the macroeconomic volatility of oil-exporting countries and have been used successfully by other commodity exporters. Using a global DSGE model, the efficient design of such rules is found to depend on the source of oil price fluctuations and the oil exporters’ structural characteristics. The output-inflation tradeoff is of particular concern for oil exporters relative to non-oil exporters due to the pass through of oil prices into headline inflation. Fiscal rules are best when coordinated with inflation targeting monetary policy, but are still desirable for fixed exchange rate regimes.
Download or read book External Adjustment in Commodity Exporting Countries During Energy Price Downturns written by Anna Burova and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent examples of energy price downturns did not alter trade surpluses in commodity exporting countries, as both exports and imports decreased in equal measures on average. Economic theory contends that such developments may indicate that the changes observed in energy prices are perceived as permanent by the market. We believe that this is a feasible interpretation that is in line with the recent evidence of the financialisation of oil markets (i.e., the situation in which expected supply and demand developments are immediately incorporated into prices, while transitory developments are filtered out by well-informed and proactive market participants).
Download or read book Global Imbalances and External Adjustment after the Crisis written by Mr.Philip R. Lane and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-08-12 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper has two objectives. First, it reviews the recent dynamics of global imbalances (both “flow” and “stock” imbalances), with a special focus on the shifting position of Latin America in the global distribution. Second, it examines the cross-country variation in external adjustment over 2008-2012. In particular, it shows how pre-crisis external imbalances have strong predictive power for post-crisis macroeconomic outcomes, allowing for variation across different exchange rate regimes. We emphasize that the bulk of external adjustment has taken the form of “expenditure reduction”, with “expenditure switching” only playing a limited role.
Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr.Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Download or read book Oil Exporters Economic Development in an Interdependent World written by Jahangir Amuzegar and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book External Adjustment in a Resource Rich Economy The Case of Papua New Guinea written by Ryota Nakatani and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should resource-rich economies handle the balance of payments adjustment required after commodity price declines? This paper addresses the question theoretically by developing a simple two-period multi-sector model based on Nakatani (2016) to compare different exchange rate policies, and empirically by estimating elasticities of imports and commodity exports with respect to exchange rates using Papua New Guinean data. In the empirical part, using various econometric methods, I find the statistically significant elasticities of commodity exports to real exchange rates. In the theoretical part, by introducing the notion of a shadow exchange rate premium, I show how the rationing of foreign exchange reduces consumer welfare. Using the estimated elasticities and theoretical outcomes, I further discuss policy implications for resource-rich countries with a focus on Papua New Guinea.
Download or read book Developing Countries in a Turbulent World written by Ching-yuan Lin and published by Greenwood. This book was released on 1981 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book External Adjustment written by Maurice Obstfeld and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations"--NBER website
Download or read book Economic Diversification in Oil Exporting Arab Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...
Download or read book External Debt and Balance of payments Adjustment in Some Non oil exporting Less developed Countries written by Deepak Bhattasali and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The External Balance Assessment EBA Methodology written by Mr.Steven Phillips and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF’s Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing between the positive empirical analysis and the normative assessment of current accounts and exchange rates, and highlights the roles of policies and policy distortions. This paper provides a comprehensive description and discussion of the 2013 version (“2.0”) of the EBA methodology, including areas for its further development.
