Download or read book Export Diversification and International Debt Under Terms of trade Uncertainty written by P. H. Kevin Chang and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Export Structure written by Cassandra Rattan and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation will largely focus on the structure and composition of exports. Trade and export revenue are fundamental to growth and development. Therefore, it is important to examine factors that can improve or undermine trade performance in order develop relevant trade policy recommendations. Export diversification is considered a favorable trade outcome that reduces vulnerability to economic shocks. Many studies have highlighted the importance of export diversification for growth and development across different contexts. However, fewer studies have examined the channels through which export diversification can influence the growth potential of countries. Studies that have examined the margins of trade have not considered how a specific provision of trade agreements may have heterogenous effects on the intensive and extensive margin. Also, to deepen our understanding of aggregate export behavior, it is useful to identify how uncertainty in a destination country affects trade along the intensive and extensive margin.The first chapter will examine the effects of export diversification on the external debt burden of countries. The high levels of external debt held in many developing countries is concerning given its negative implications for long-term growth prospects. Export diversification is associated with a reduction in the concentration of a country's export basket or the introduction of new and differentiated exports or markets. This is a useful trade strategy because it encourages more stable foreign exchange earnings and improved allocation of resources towards the development of productive export sectors. For LDC's that are largely dependent on commodity trade, the ability of diversification to stabilize revenue streams can facilitate better economic planning and debt repayment (Mejia, 2011). Several studies have demonstrated that export diversification is capable of minimizing volatility because of its ability to reduce exposure to negative external shocks (Jansen (2004), Joya (2015) and Haddad et al. (2013)). By facilitating a less volatile environment, export diversification can create favorable conditions for the accumulation of savings which can facilitate debt servicing and offset indebtedness in the long-term. I hypothesize that export diversification can help to reduce the debt burden of developing countries primarily via the positive effects on export income stability and foreign exchange earnings. The results suggest that geographical diversification which can help to protect against country specific shocks and reduce export revenue volatility is able to reduce a country's debt burden in the future.The second chapter will employ bilateral trade data and information on the provisions of trade agreements to determine whether single window provisions have any impact on trade margins. Both the margins of trade and the content of trade agreements have become a significant part of the trade literature in recent times. Trade agreements can have wide ranging benefits. As Robert Koopman, Chief Economist of the World Trade Organization, noted, "Multilateral agreements play a crucial role in lowering trade costs, and ensuring that all economies, particularly the poorest, benefit from trade cost reductions" (WTO, 2017). The provisions of trade agreements can be seen as a means of achieving or assisting with trade facilitation goals. While there is support for the positive effects of single windows on trade and for broader categories of trade provisions on trade margins, there is a lack of any study that examines the effect of having a provision related to the single window mechanism on trade margins. Using a PPML approach in the context of a gravity model, I assess whether the inclusion of single window provisions in trade agreements serves to increase trade flows using a sample of agreements formed between 1995 and 2017. Specifically, my results show a negative and significant impact of the single window provision on the intensive margin. However, when accounting for trade agreement depth in the PPML model I largely find a delayed positive effect of this provision on both overall exports and at the extensive margin for both the first and fifth lag. This demonstrates the possible phase in effects of trade agreements or because of the significant time and resources it takes to introduce a single window system. There appear to be heterogenous effects when countries are grouped by income status.The third chapter seeks to understand how world uncertainty affects the margins of trade. Specifically, it assesses whether the use of a new index of uncertainty, the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) yields findings that diverge from with the existing literature. This research is important because there exist so many measures of uncertainty and results can be sensitive to how these measures are created and the sample of countries included in the analysis. Also, since uncertainty affects all economies, it would be useful to delve deeper into the channel through which exports are affected by this phenomenon and whether this channel differs across country contexts. While the existing literature has shown the negative impact of uncertainty on trade, it would be worthwhile to see whether any new insights can be derived from this new dataset. Using data on the WUI and the bilateral BACI database, I use a panel gravity model to explore the implications of uncertainty for trade margins using a larger sample of countries compared to previous papers. Using an unbalanced dataset of approximately 300,000 observations and around 14,000 distinct country pairs for the period 1995-2018, my study confirms the finding in previous studies that the extensive margin is quite important in explaining the decline in trade flows that occurs due to uncertainty. However, my study offers an additional insight for the uncertainty-trade literature. Specifically, the intensive margin may be more important to this uncertainty-trade relationship. Also, the results confirm that uncertainty can have a strong immediate impact which fades away with time, but a potential delayed effect is expected on existing firms through the intensive margin.

Download or read book Economic Benefits of Export Diversification in Small States written by Arnold McIntyre and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-11 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper considers concepts of economic diversification with respect to exports (including service sectors) for small states. We assessed the economic performance of different groups of 34 small states over the period of 1990-2015 and found those more diversified experienced lower output volatility and higher average growth than most other small states. Our findings are consistent with conventional economic theories but we found that export diversification has a more significant impact on reducing output volatility than improving long run growth in small states. Diversification requires fundamental changes and should be contemplated in the context of a cohesive development strategy.

Download or read book Trade Competitiveness of the Middle East and North Africa written by Jos R. L pez-C lix and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decade, four major developments in global economic integration have shaped trade policy and the economic performance of countries within the Middle East and North Africa region: the emergence of global supply chains, the growth of trade in services, the rise of China and India as major international trading powers, and regional integration. These developments, along with the labor and natural resource endowments of particular countries (some are resource-poor but labor-abundant, some resource-rich and labor-abundant, and some resource-rich and labor-importing), have influenced export diversification outcomes across the region. Yet these countries may not be taking full advantage of all of the opportunities the four new trends offer to them. 'Trade Competitiveness of the Middle East and North Africa: Policies for Export Diversification' examines the region's trade policy agendas and their results by focusing on the countries' response to these four key developments in international trade. As the region recovers from the global financial and economic crises, the book identifies reforms that could allow countries to further strengthen global production networks, benefit more from trade in services, better compete in external markets to face the rise of China and India, and reach the full potential of regional integration. If thoroughly implemented, especially by oil exporters, all of these reforms could help boost growth and job creation in the region.

Download or read book Does What You Export Matter written by Daniel Lederman and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-06-18 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does what economies export matter for development? If so, can industrial policies improve on the export basket generated by the market? This book approaches these questions from a variety of conceptual and policy viewpoints. Reviewing the theoretical arguments in favor of industrial policies, the authors first ask whether existing indicators allow policy makers to identify growth-promoting sectors with confidence. To this end, they assess, and ultimately cast doubt upon, the reliability of many popular indicators advocated by proponents of industrial policy. Second, and central to their critique, the authors document extraordinary differences in the performance of countries exporting seemingly identical products, be they natural resources or 'high-tech' goods. Further, they argue that globalization has so fragmented the production process that even talking about exported goods as opposed to tasks may be misleading. Reviewing evidence from history and from around the world, the authors conclude that policy makers should focus less on what is produced, and more on how it is produced. They analyze alternative approaches to picking winners but conclude by favoring 'horizontal-ish' policies--for instance, those that build human capital or foment innovation in existing and future products—that only incidentally favor some sectors over others.

Download or read book Economic Diversification in the GCC written by Mr.Tim Callen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-23 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.

Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Download or read book Breaking Into New Markets written by Richard Newfarmer and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2009-03-12 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International trade in 2009 is projected to contract for the first time since 1982. As a result, export diversifi cation has gained new urgency as one way of using exports to recover lost growth momentum. Moreover, diversifi cation is central to reducing income volatility and sustaining high growth rates, which are especially important for countries with large populations living in poverty. In the 1950s, countries became concerned that their dependence on primary products would lead to steady falls in the purchasing power of primary exports and thus slow growth. A major policy objective of developing countries since that time has been to diversify out of primary products into manufactures. Although some nations have been at least partially successful, many low-income countries remain dependent on a narrow range of primary products. 'Breaking Into New Markets' argues for a comprehensive view of diversifi cation. It explores new thinking and evidence about export diversifi cation and elaborates on policies for its promotion. These policies span tariffs and taxes, services, and government activities to help fi rms take advantage of global opportunities. The book is a compilation of chapters written as short, policy-focused pieces. Many digest longer, more academic papers in an effort to make the information accessible to a larger policy and nontechnical audience. In that sense, the book is a policy primer on what export diversifi cation can and cannot do for growth and how to make diversifi cation happen. Intelligently designed policies that effi ciently address the obstacles to export growth are critical for overall economic growth and poverty reduction. This book offers insights useful to policy makers and practitioners as they embark on efforts to design new programs of competitiveness in their trade strategies.

Download or read book Aid for Trade at a Glance 2019 Economic Diversification and Empowerment written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2019-07-11 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edition analyses how trade can contribute to economic diversification and empowerment, with a focus on eliminating extreme poverty, particularly through the effective participation of women and youth. It shows how aid for trade can contribute to that objective by addressing supply-side capacity and trade-related infrastructure constraints, including for micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises notably in rural areas.

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

Download or read book External Debt Statistics written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-06-25 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Guide provides clear, up-to-date guidance on the concepts, definitions, and classifications of the gross external debt of the public and private sectors, and on the sources, compilation techniques, and analytical uses of these data. The Guide supersedes the previous international guidance on external debt statistics available in External Debt: Definition, Statistical Coverage, and Methodology (known as the Gray Book), 1988. The Guides conceptual framework derives from the System of National Accounts 1993 and the fifth edition of the IMFs Balance of Payments Manual(1993). Preparation of the Guide was undertaken by an Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics, chaired by the IMF and involving representatives from the BIS, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the European Central Bank, Eurostat, the OECD, the Paris Club Secretariat, UNCTAD, and the World Bank.

Download or read book Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.

Download or read book The World Bank Research Observer written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book World Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 1834 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Macroeconomics for Professionals written by Leslie Lipschitz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-01-23 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.

Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-01-01 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines market liberalization policies in a reforming socialist economy. The aim of this paper is to develop a model of such a reforming socialist economy and to explore the consequences of market-oriented policies in the context of such an economy. A model of a socialist economy is presented, incorporating bargaining over wages and employment in the socialized sector and shortages that are reflected in the black market. The model is used to analyze the implications of liberalization policies, including trade liberalization, an administered price increase, and provisions allowing for increased direct foreign investment. The nonsocialized sector is perfectly competitive and produces an output that is different from that of the socialized sector. It has a neoclassical production function using a sector-specific input (say, capital) and labor. The results suggest that reforms may have different effects under different trade regimes and that small price reforms may have perverse effects.

Download or read book Manufacturing for Export in the Developing World written by Gerry Helleiner and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1995-09-07 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, much has been made of the success of developing countries, particularly in East Asia, which have achieved economic growth by manufacturing goods which are then exported to developed economies. Case studies of five countries uncover serious potential difficulties in maintaining the pace of manufacturing for export in the developing