Download or read book Exploratory Causal Analysis with Time Series Data written by James M. McCracken and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-06-01 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many scientific disciplines rely on observational data of systems for which it is difficult (or impossible) to implement controlled experiments. Data analysis techniques are required for identifying causal information and relationships directly from such observational data. This need has led to the development of many different time series causality approaches and tools including transfer entropy, convergent cross-mapping (CCM), and Granger causality statistics. A practicing analyst can explore the literature to find many proposals for identifying drivers and causal connections in time series data sets. Exploratory causal analysis (ECA) provides a framework for exploring potential causal structures in time series data sets and is characterized by a myopic goal to determine which data series from a given set of series might be seen as the primary driver. In this work, ECA is used on several synthetic and empirical data sets, and it is found that all of the tested time series causality tools agree with each other (and intuitive notions of causality) for many simple systems but can provide conflicting causal inferences for more complicated systems. It is proposed that such disagreements between different time series causality tools during ECA might provide deeper insight into the data than could be found otherwise.
Download or read book Causality in Time Series Challenges in Machine Learning written by Florin Popescu and published by . This book was released on 2013-06 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume in the Challenges in Machine Learning series gathers papers from the Mini Symposium on Causality in Time Series, which was part of the Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS) confernce in 2009 in Vancouver, Canada. These papers present state-of-the-art research in time-series causality to the machine learning community, unifying methodological interests in the various communities that require such inference.
Download or read book Causal Analysis written by Lawrence R. James and published by SAGE Publications, Incorporated. This book was released on 1982-10 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses specifically on confirmatory analysis - a quantitative technique used to illuminate causal relationships among organizational phenomena. The authors outline the conditions that must be met if causal inferences are to be drawn from nonexperimental data, and offer new tests for determining whether data meet those conditions. While analytic models and techniques of confirmatory analysis are stressed here, the authors also emphasize the importance of strong, well-developed theory as a prerequisite to the appropriate application of these powerful (but easily misused) tools.
Download or read book Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments written by Richard McCleary and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments develops methods and models for analysis and interpretation of time series experiments while also addressing recent developments in causal modeling. Unlike other time series texts, it integrates the statistical issues of design, estimation, and interpretation with foundational validity issues. Drawing on examples from criminology, economics, education, pharmacology, public policy, program evaluation, public health, and psychology, this text addresses researchers and graduate students in a wide range of the behavioral, biomedical, and social sciences.
Download or read book Time Series written by David R. Brillinger and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2001-09-01 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text employs basic techniques of univariate and multivariate statistics for the analysis of time series and signals.
Download or read book Data Analysis for Business Economics and Policy written by Gábor Békés and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-05-06 with total page 741 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive textbook on data analysis for business, applied economics and public policy that uses case studies with real-world data.
Download or read book Handbook of Time Series Analysis written by Björn Schelter and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-12-13 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook provides an up-to-date survey of current research topics and applications of time series analysis methods written by leading experts in their fields. It covers recent developments in univariate as well as bivariate and multivariate time series analysis techniques ranging from physics' to life sciences' applications. Each chapter comprises both methodological aspects and applications to real world complex systems, such as the human brain or Earth's climate. Covering an exceptionally broad spectrum of topics, beginners, experts and practitioners who seek to understand the latest developments will profit from this handbook.
Download or read book Techniques of Event History Modeling written by Hans-Peter Blossfeld and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Including new developments and publications which have appeared since the publication of the first edition in 1995, this second edition: *gives a comprehensive introductory account of event history modeling techniques and their use in applied research in economics and the social sciences; *demonstrates that event history modeling is a major step forward in causal analysis. To do so the authors show that event history models employ the time-path of changes in states and relate changes in causal variables in the past to changes in discrete outcomes in the future; and *introduces the reader to the computer program Transition Data Analysis (TDA). This software estimates the sort of models most frequently used with longitudinal data, in particular, discrete-time and continuous-time event history data. Techniques of Event History Modeling can serve as a student textbook in the fields of statistics, economics, the social sciences, psychology, and the political sciences. It can also be used as a reference for scientists in all fields of research.
Download or read book Applied Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences written by Richard McCleary and published by SAGE Publications, Incorporated. This book was released on 1980-07 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: McCleary and Hay have made time series analysis techniques -- the Box-Jenkins or ARIMA methods -- accessible to the social scientist. Rejecting the dictum that time series analysis requires substantial mathematical sophistication, the authors take a clearly written, step-by-step approach. They describe the logic behind time series analysis, and its possible applications in impact assessment, causal modelling and forecasting, multivariate time series and parameter estimation.
Download or read book Time Series Analysis and Its Applications written by Robert H. Shumway and published by . This book was released on 2014-01-15 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments written by Richard McCleary and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-05-11 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments presents the elements of statistical time series analysis while also addressing recent developments in research design and causal modeling. A distinguishing feature of the book is its integration of design and analysis of time series experiments. Readers learn not only how-to skills but also the underlying rationales for design features and analytical methods. ARIMA algebra, Box-Jenkins-Tiao models and model-building strategies, forecasting, and Box-Tiao impact models are developed in separate chapters. The presentation of the models and model-building assumes only exposure to an introductory statistics course, with more difficult mathematical material relegated to appendices. Separate chapters cover threats to statistical conclusion validity, internal validity, construct validity, and external validity with an emphasis on how these threats arise in time series experiments. Design structures for controlling the threats are presented and illustrated through examples. The chapters on statistical conclusion validity and internal validity introduce Bayesian methods, counterfactual causality, and synthetic control group designs. Building on the earlier time series books by McCleary and McDowall, Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments includes recent developments in modeling, and considers design issues in greater detail than does any existing work. Drawing examples from criminology, economics, education, pharmacology, public policy, program evaluation, public health, and psychology, the text is addressed to researchers and graduate students in a wide range of behavioral, biomedical and social sciences. It will appeal to those who want to conduct or interpret time series experiments, as well as to those interested in research designs for causal inference.
Download or read book Data Analysis for Business Economics and Policy written by Gábor Békés and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-05-06 with total page 742 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook provides future data analysts with the tools, methods, and skills needed to answer data-focused, real-life questions; to carry out data analysis; and to visualize and interpret results to support better decisions in business, economics, and public policy. Data wrangling and exploration, regression analysis, machine learning, and causal analysis are comprehensively covered, as well as when, why, and how the methods work, and how they relate to each other. As the most effective way to communicate data analysis, running case studies play a central role in this textbook. Each case starts with an industry-relevant question and answers it by using real-world data and applying the tools and methods covered in the textbook. Learning is then consolidated by 360 practice questions and 120 data exercises. Extensive online resources, including raw and cleaned data and codes for all analysis in Stata, R, and Python, can be found at www.gabors-data-analysis.com.
Download or read book Practical Time Series Analysis written by Aileen Nielsen and published by O'Reilly Media. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time series data analysis is increasingly important due to the massive production of such data through the internet of things, the digitalization of healthcare, and the rise of smart cities. As continuous monitoring and data collection become more common, the need for competent time series analysis with both statistical and machine learning techniques will increase. Covering innovations in time series data analysis and use cases from the real world, this practical guide will help you solve the most common data engineering and analysis challengesin time series, using both traditional statistical and modern machine learning techniques. Author Aileen Nielsen offers an accessible, well-rounded introduction to time series in both R and Python that will have data scientists, software engineers, and researchers up and running quickly. You’ll get the guidance you need to confidently: Find and wrangle time series data Undertake exploratory time series data analysis Store temporal data Simulate time series data Generate and select features for a time series Measure error Forecast and classify time series with machine or deep learning Evaluate accuracy and performance
Download or read book Creating a Data Driven Organization written by Carl Anderson and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2015-07-23 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What do you need to become a data-driven organization? Far more than having big data or a crack team of unicorn data scientists, it requires establishing an effective, deeply-ingrained data culture. This practical book shows you how true data-drivenness involves processes that require genuine buy-in across your company, from analysts and management to the C-Suite and the board. Through interviews and examples from data scientists and analytics leaders in a variety of industries, author Carl Anderson explains the analytics value chain you need to adopt when building predictive business modelsâ??from data collection and analysis to the insights and leadership that drive concrete actions. Youâ??ll learn what works and what doesnâ??t, and why creating a data-driven culture throughout your organization is essential. Start from the bottom up: learn how to collect the right data the right way Hire analysts with the right skills, and organize them into teams Examine statistical and visualization tools, and fact-based story-telling methods Collect and analyze data while respecting privacy and ethics Understand how analysts and their managers can help spur a data-driven culture Learn the importance of data leadership and C-level positions such as chief data officer and chief analytics officer
Download or read book Interrupted Time Series Analysis written by David McDowall and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-09-16 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interrupted Time Series Analysis develops a comprehensive set of models and methods for drawing causal inferences from time series. It provides example analyses of social, behavioral, and biomedical time series to illustrate a general strategy for building AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) impact models. Additionally, the book supplements the classic Box-Jenkins-Tiao model-building strategy with recent auxiliary tests for transformation, differencing, and model selection. Not only does the text discuss new developments, including the prospects for widespread adoption of Bayesian hypothesis testing and synthetic control group designs, but it makes optimal use of graphical illustrations in its examples. With forty completed example analyses that demonstrate the implications of model properties, Interrupted Time Series Analysis will be a key inter-disciplinary text in classrooms, workshops, and short-courses for researchers familiar with time series data or cross-sectional regression analysis but limited background in the structure of time series processes and experiments.
Download or read book Spectral Analysis of Time series Data written by Rebecca M. Warner and published by Guilford Press. This book was released on 1998-05-22 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a thorough introduction to methods for detecting and describing cyclic patterns in time-series data. It is written both for researchers and students new to the area and for those who have already collected time-series data but wish to learn new ways of understanding and presenting them. Facilitating the interpretation of observations of behavior, physiology, mood, perceptual threshold, social indicator variables, and other responses, the book focuses on practical applications and requires much less mathematical background than most comparable texts. Using real data sets and currently available software (SPSS for Windows), the author employs extensive examples to clarify key concepts. Topics covered include research design issues, preliminary data screening, identification and description of cycles, summary of results across time series, and assessment of relations between time series. Also considered are theoretical questions, problems of interpretation, and potential sources of artifact.
Download or read book Time Series Analysis and Adjustment written by Haim Y. Bleikh and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-02-24 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Time Series Analysis and Adjustment the authors explain how the last four decades have brought dramatic changes in the way researchers analyze economic and financial data on behalf of economic and financial institutions and provide statistics to whomsoever requires them. Such analysis has long involved what is known as econometrics, but time series analysis is a different approach driven more by data than economic theory and focused on modelling. An understanding of time series and the application and understanding of related time series adjustment procedures is essential in areas such as risk management, business cycle analysis, and forecasting. Dealing with economic data involves grappling with things like varying numbers of working and trading days in different months and movable national holidays. Special attention has to be given to such things. However, the main problem in time series analysis is randomness. In real-life, data patterns are usually unclear, and the challenge is to uncover hidden patterns in the data and then to generate accurate forecasts. The case studies in this book demonstrate that time series adjustment methods can be efficaciously applied and utilized, for both analysis and forecasting, but they must be used in the context of reasoned statistical and economic judgment. The authors believe this is the first published study to really deal with this issue of context.
