Download or read book Exploration of the Brazilian Term Structure in a Hidden Markov Framework written by Mr.Richard Munclinger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a hidden Markov model of the term structure to modeling the Brazilian swap rate curve. We examine the model's characteristics and its performance in describing the cross-sectional and time-series dynamics of the term structure. Two regimes are identified, a high level and a high volatility regime and a low level and low volatility regime. Both regimes are persistent and are explained by the level and the slope of the term structure. The model is estimated using a Bayesian MCM algorithm that produces consistent standard errors and a reliable method for testing the differences between the model parameters.

Download or read book Allee Effects in Ecology and Conservation written by Franck Courchamp and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2008-02-14 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Allee effects are relevant to biologists who study rarity, and to conservationists and managers who try and protect endangered populations. This book provides an overview of the Allee effect, the mechanisms which drive it and its consequences for population dynamics, evolution and conservation.

Download or read book Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Managing Risk written by Alberto Troccoli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-29 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.

Download or read book Optimization Based Models for Measuring and Hedging Risk in Fixed Income Markets written by Johan Hagenbjörk and published by Linköping University Electronic Press. This book was released on 2019-12-09 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global fixed income market is an enormous financial market whose value by far exceeds that of the public stock markets. The interbank market consists of interest rate derivatives, whose primary purpose is to manage interest rate risk. The credit market primarily consists of the bond market, which links investors to companies, institutions, and governments with borrowing needs. This dissertation takes an optimization perspective upon modeling both these areas of the fixed-income market. Legislators on the national markets require financial actors to value their financial assets in accordance with market prices. Thus, prices of many assets, which are not publicly traded, must be determined mathematically. The financial quantities needed for pricing are not directly observable but must be measured through solving inverse optimization problems. These measurements are based on the available market prices, which are observed with various degrees of measurement noise. For the interbank market, the relevant financial quantities consist of term structures of interest rates, which are curves displaying the market rates for different maturities. For the bond market, credit risk is an additional factor that can be modeled through default intensity curves and term structures of recovery rates in case of default. By formulating suitable optimization models, the different underlying financial quantities can be measured in accordance with observable market prices, while conditions for economic realism are imposed. Measuring and managing risk is closely connected to the measurement of the underlying financial quantities. Through a data-driven method, we can show that six systematic risk factors can be used to explain almost all variance in the interest rate curves. By modeling the dynamics of these six risk factors, possible outcomes can be simulated in the form of term structure scenarios. For short-term simulation horizons, this results in a representation of the portfolio value distribution that is consistent with the realized outcomes from historically observed term structures. This enables more accurate measurements of interest rate risk, where our proposed method exhibits both lower risk and lower pricing errors compared to traditional models. We propose a method for decomposing changes in portfolio values for an arbitrary portfolio into the risk factors that affect the value of each instrument. By demonstrating the method for the six systematic risk factors identified for the interbank market, we show that almost all changes in portfolio value and portfolio variance can be attributed to these risk factors. Additional risk factors and approximation errors are gathered into two terms, which can be studied to ensure the quality of the performance attribution, and possibly improve it. To eliminate undesired risk within trading books, banks use hedging. Traditional methods do not take transaction costs into account. We, therefore, propose a method for managing the risks in the interbank market through a stochastic optimization model that considers transaction costs. This method is based on a scenario approximation of the optimization problem where the six systematic risk factors are simulated, and the portfolio variance is weighted against the transaction costs. This results in a method that is preferred over the traditional methods for all risk-averse investors. For the credit market, we use data from the bond market in combination with the interbank market to make accurate measurements of the financial quantities. We address the notoriously difficult problem of separating default risk from recovery risk. In addition to the previous identified six systematic risk factors for risk-free interests, we identify four risk factors that explain almost all variance in default intensities, while a single risk factor seems sufficient to model the recovery risk. Overall, this is a higher number of risk factors than is usually found in the literature. Through a simple model, we can measure the variance in bond prices in terms of these systematic risk factors, and through performance attribution, we relate these values to the empirically realized variances from the quoted bond prices. De globala ränte- och kreditmarknaderna är enorma finansiella marknader vars sammanlagda värden vida överstiger de publika aktiemarknadernas. Räntemarknaden består av räntederivat vars främsta användningsområde är hantering av ränterisker. Kreditmarknaden utgörs i första hand av obligationsmarknaden som syftar till att förmedla pengar från investerare till företag, institutioner och stater med upplåningsbehov. Denna avhandling fokuserar på att utifrån ett optimeringsperspektiv modellera både ränte- och obligationsmarknaden. Lagstiftarna på de nationella marknaderna kräver att de finansiella aktörerna värderar sina finansiella tillgångar i enlighet med marknadspriser. Därmed måste priserna på många instrument, som inte handlas publikt, beräknas matematiskt. De finansiella storheter som krävs för denna prissättning är inte direkt observerbara, utan måste mätas genom att lösa inversa optimeringsproblem. Dessa mätningar görs utifrån tillgängliga marknadspriser, som observeras med varierande grad av mätbrus. För räntemarknaden utgörs de relevanta finansiella storheterna av räntekurvor som åskådliggör marknadsräntorna för olika löptider. För obligationsmarknaden utgör kreditrisken en ytterligare faktor som modelleras via fallissemangsintensitetskurvor och kurvor kopplade till förväntat återvunnet kapital vid eventuellt fallissemang. Genom att formulera lämpliga optimeringsmodeller kan de olika underliggande finansiella storheterna mätas i enlighet med observerbara marknadspriser samtidigt som ekonomisk realism eftersträvas. Mätning och hantering av risker är nära kopplat till mätningen av de underliggande finansiella storheterna. Genom en datadriven metod kan vi visa att sex systematiska riskfaktorer kan användas för att förklara nästan all varians i räntekurvorna. Genom att modellera dynamiken i dessa sex riskfaktorer kan tänkbara utfall för räntekurvor simuleras. För kortsiktiga simuleringshorisonter resulterar detta i en representation av fördelningen av portföljvärden som väl överensstämmer med de realiserade utfallen från historiskt observerade räntekurvor. Detta möjliggör noggrannare mätningar av ränterisk där vår föreslagna metod uppvisar såväl lägre risk som mindre prissättningsfel jämfört med traditionella modeller. Vi föreslår en metod för att dekomponera portföljutvecklingen för en godtycklig portfölj till de riskfaktorer som påverkar värdet för respektive instrument. Genom att demonstrera metoden för de sex systematiska riskfaktorerna som identifierats för räntemarknaden visar vi att nästan all portföljutveckling och portföljvarians kan härledas till dessa riskfaktorer. Övriga riskfaktorer och approximationsfel samlas i två termer, vilka kan användas för att säkerställa och eventuellt förbättra kvaliteten i prestationshärledningen. För att eliminera oönskad risk i sina tradingböcker använder banker sig av hedging. Traditionella metoder tar ingen hänsyn till transaktionskostnader. Vi föreslår därför en metod för att hantera riskerna på räntemarknaden genom en stokastisk optimeringsmodell som också tar hänsyn till transaktionskostnader. Denna metod bygger på en scenarioapproximation av optimeringsproblemet där de sex systematiska riskfaktorerna simuleras och portföljvariansen vägs mot transaktionskostnaderna. Detta resulterar i en metod som, för alla riskaverta investerare, är att föredra framför de traditionella metoderna. På kreditmarknaden använder vi data från obligationsmarknaden i kombination räntemarknaden för att göra noggranna mätningar av de finansiella storheterna. Vi angriper det erkänt svåra problemet att separera fallissemangsrisk från återvinningsrisk. Förutom de tidigare sex systematiska riskfaktorerna för riskfri ränta, identifierar vi fyra riskfaktorer som förklarar nästan all varians i fallissemangsintensiteter, medan en enda riskfaktor tycks räcka för att modellera återvinningsrisken. Sammanlagt är detta ett större antal riskfaktorer än vad som brukar användas i litteraturen. Via en enkel modell kan vi mäta variansen i obligationspriser i termer av dessa systematiska riskfaktorer och genom prestationshärledningen relatera dessa värden till de empiriskt realiserade varianserna från kvoterade obligationspriser.

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Download or read book Introduction to Information Retrieval written by Christopher D. Manning and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-07-07 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Class-tested and coherent, this textbook teaches classical and web information retrieval, including web search and the related areas of text classification and text clustering from basic concepts. It gives an up-to-date treatment of all aspects of the design and implementation of systems for gathering, indexing, and searching documents; methods for evaluating systems; and an introduction to the use of machine learning methods on text collections. All the important ideas are explained using examples and figures, making it perfect for introductory courses in information retrieval for advanced undergraduates and graduate students in computer science. Based on feedback from extensive classroom experience, the book has been carefully structured in order to make teaching more natural and effective. Slides and additional exercises (with solutions for lecturers) are also available through the book's supporting website to help course instructors prepare their lectures.

Download or read book Algebraic Statistics for Computational Biology written by L. Pachter and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-08-22 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 2005, offers an introduction to the application of algebraic statistics to computational biology.

Download or read book AI and Financial Markets written by Shigeyuki Hamori and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-07-01 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Artificial intelligence (AI) is regarded as the science and technology for producing an intelligent machine, particularly, an intelligent computer program. Machine learning is an approach to realizing AI comprising a collection of statistical algorithms, of which deep learning is one such example. Due to the rapid development of computer technology, AI has been actively explored for a variety of academic and practical purposes in the context of financial markets. This book focuses on the broad topic of “AI and Financial Markets”, and includes novel research associated with this topic. The book includes contributions on the application of machine learning, agent-based artificial market simulation, and other related skills to the analysis of various aspects of financial markets.

Download or read book Hidden Markov Models for Speech Recognition written by X. D. Huang and published by . This book was released on 1990-01-01 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Speech Language Processing written by Dan Jurafsky and published by Pearson Education India. This book was released on 2000-09 with total page 912 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Linguistics and Language Behavior Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 942 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Ant Colony Optimization written by Marco Dorigo and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004-06-04 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of the rapidly growing field of ant colony optimization that describes theoretical findings, the major algorithms, and current applications. The complex social behaviors of ants have been much studied by science, and computer scientists are now finding that these behavior patterns can provide models for solving difficult combinatorial optimization problems. The attempt to develop algorithms inspired by one aspect of ant behavior, the ability to find what computer scientists would call shortest paths, has become the field of ant colony optimization (ACO), the most successful and widely recognized algorithmic technique based on ant behavior. This book presents an overview of this rapidly growing field, from its theoretical inception to practical applications, including descriptions of many available ACO algorithms and their uses. The book first describes the translation of observed ant behavior into working optimization algorithms. The ant colony metaheuristic is then introduced and viewed in the general context of combinatorial optimization. This is followed by a detailed description and guide to all major ACO algorithms and a report on current theoretical findings. The book surveys ACO applications now in use, including routing, assignment, scheduling, subset, machine learning, and bioinformatics problems. AntNet, an ACO algorithm designed for the network routing problem, is described in detail. The authors conclude by summarizing the progress in the field and outlining future research directions. Each chapter ends with bibliographic material, bullet points setting out important ideas covered in the chapter, and exercises. Ant Colony Optimization will be of interest to academic and industry researchers, graduate students, and practitioners who wish to learn how to implement ACO algorithms.

Download or read book Graphical Models Exponential Families and Variational Inference written by Martin J. Wainwright and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The core of this paper is a general set of variational principles for the problems of computing marginal probabilities and modes, applicable to multivariate statistical models in the exponential family.

Download or read book Behavior Computing written by Longbing Cao and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-04-10 with total page 371 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Behavior' is an increasingly important concept in the scientific, societal, economic, cultural, political, military, living and virtual worlds. Behavior computing, or behavior informatics, consists of methodologies, techniques and practical tools for examining and interpreting behaviours in these various worlds. Behavior computing contributes to the in-depth understanding, discovery, applications and management of behavior intelligence. With contributions from leading researchers in this emerging field Behavior Computing: Modeling, Analysis, Mining and Decision includes chapters on: representation and modeling behaviors; behavior ontology; behaviour analysis; behaviour pattern mining; clustering complex behaviors; classification of complex behaviors; behaviour impact analysis; social behaviour analysis; organizational behaviour analysis; and behaviour computing applications. Behavior Computing: Modeling, Analysis, Mining and Decision provides a dedicated source of reference for the theory and applications of behavior informatics and behavior computing. Researchers, research students and practitioners in behavior studies, including computer science, behavioral science, and social science communities will find this state of the art volume invaluable.

Download or read book On the Dynamics of Exploited Fish Populations written by Raymond J.H. Beverton and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 541 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Among the fishes, a remarkably wide range of biological adaptations to diverse habitats has evolved. As well as living in the conventional habitats of lakes, ponds, rivers, rock pools and the open sea, fish have solved the problems of life in deserts, in the deep sea, in the cold antarctic, and in warm waters of high alkalinity or of low oxygen. Along with these adaptations, we find the most impressive specializations of morphology, physiology and behaviour. For example we can marvel at the high-speed swimming of the marlins, sailfish and warm-blooded tunas, air-breathing in catfish and lungfish, parental care in the mouth-brooding cichlids, and viviparity in many sharks and toothcarps. Moreover, fish are of considerable importance to the survival of the human species in the form of nutritious, delicious and diverse food. Rational exploitation and management of our global stocks of fishes must rely upon a detailed and precise insight of their biology. The Chapman & Hall Fish and Fisheries Series aims to present timely volumes reviewing important aspects of fish biology. Most volumes will be of interest to research workers in biology, zoology, ecology and physiology but an additional aim is for the books to be accessible to a wide spectrum of non-specialist readers ranging from undergraduates and postgraduates to those with an interest in industrial and commercial aspects of fish and fisheries.

Download or read book Web Data Mining written by Bing Liu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-06-25 with total page 637 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Liu has written a comprehensive text on Web mining, which consists of two parts. The first part covers the data mining and machine learning foundations, where all the essential concepts and algorithms of data mining and machine learning are presented. The second part covers the key topics of Web mining, where Web crawling, search, social network analysis, structured data extraction, information integration, opinion mining and sentiment analysis, Web usage mining, query log mining, computational advertising, and recommender systems are all treated both in breadth and in depth. His book thus brings all the related concepts and algorithms together to form an authoritative and coherent text. The book offers a rich blend of theory and practice. It is suitable for students, researchers and practitioners interested in Web mining and data mining both as a learning text and as a reference book. Professors can readily use it for classes on data mining, Web mining, and text mining. Additional teaching materials such as lecture slides, datasets, and implemented algorithms are available online.

Download or read book Informality written by Guillermo Perry and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyzes informality in Latin America, exploring root causes and reasons for and implications of its growth. This book uses two distinct but complementary lenses. It concludes that reducing informality levels and overcoming the "culture of informality" will require actions to increase aggregate productivity in the economy.