Download or read book Experimental Evaluation of a Damage Prediction Model Using Data Generated by Hurricane Gilbert and Its Implications to Other Hazards written by Norris Stubbs and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Natural Hazards Observer written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Download or read book The Great Sea Island Storm of 1893 written by Bill Marscher and published by Mercer University Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Great Sea Island Storm of 1893 details human courage and perseverance in the face of the second most fatal hurricane in US history.
Download or read book Integrating Surrogate Modeling and Bayesian Updating for Damage Assessment written by Qin Lu and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Besides service loads, extreme loadings from the ambient environment, such as hurricane-induced strong winds and fallen trees, can cause severe damages to infrastructures. Damage assessment is crucial to infrastructure management and mitigation strategy planning. Due to many uncertainties of the civil infrastructure systems, such as those from loads, material properties, and empirical models used to describe the structural damages, systematic probabilistic damage assessment that include many damage conditions and scenarios could be very time-consuming. With detailed modeling of the infrastructure and their interactions with the ambient environment, each damage simulation of the complex structural system could also be computationally expensive. Nevertheless, the establishment of probabilistic and temporal load models can also be challenging because of data scarcity. Finally, the material deterioration in the natural coastal corrosive environment environments can further complex the damage assessment considering the time-dependent nature of the corrosion and degradation process. To address these challenges, data-driven-based surrogate modeling and data-informed dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) are integrated for damage modeling of critical civil infrastructures. The probabilistic damage assessment of two types of structures with material degradation issues is discussed. For the coastal slender bridge, the temporal sequences of vehicle, wind, and wave loads are simulated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations based on the data collected by the in-field data-collecting systems. In a DBN framework, the evolution of the fatigue crack length in orthotropic steel deck (OSD) is evaluated with the facilitation of a surrogate model used to predict the fatigue crack length growth. For the overhead power distribution system (OPDS) composed of wooden poles, the risk model of fallen trees is developed using computer vision technique, and the risk model of hurricane-induced wind is established through a machine learning-based statistical model combined with historical hurricane track data. In the static analysis of OPDS subjected to wind loads, surrogate models are developed to predict the moments of poles using selected features as predictors. In the dynamic analysis of OPDS, a physics-informed long short-term memory algorithm is utilized to predict the dynamic response of poles. The uncertainties of the material properties are reduced within the DBN framework to improve the damage assessment accuracy. The optimal hardening strategy for OPDS is selected through the Bayesian decision network.
Download or read book Multiple Linear Regression Models written by Ji Myong Kim and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there currently is no comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses associated with individual buildings. To address this lack of research, this study will identify vulnerabilities and hurricane indicators, develop metrics to measure the influence of economic losses from hurricanes, and visualize the spatial distribution of vulnerability to evaluate overall hurricane damage. This paper has utilized the Geographic Information System (GIS) to facilitate collecting and managing data, and has combined vulnerability factors to assess the financial losses suffered by Texas coastal counties. A multiple linear regression method has been applied to develop hurricane economic damage predicting models. To reflect the pecuniary loss, insured loss payment was used as the dependent variable to predict the actual financial damage and ratio. Geographical vulnerability indicators, built environment vulnerability indicators, and hurricane indicators were all used as independent variables. Accordingly, the models and findings may possibly provide vital references for government agencies, emergency planners, and insurance companies hoping to predict hurricane damage. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/151152
Download or read book Natural Hazards UnNatural Disasters written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010-11-10 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines how to ensure that the preventive measures are worthwhile and effective, and how people can make decisions individually and collectively at different levels of government.
Download or read book Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-05-28 with total page 593 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 806 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Aviation Turbulence written by Robert Sharman and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-27 with total page 529 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anyone who has experienced turbulence in flight knows that it is usually not pleasant, and may wonder why this is so difficult to avoid. The book includes papers by various aviation turbulence researchers and provides background into the nature and causes of atmospheric turbulence that affect aircraft motion, and contains surveys of the latest techniques for remote and in situ sensing and forecasting of the turbulence phenomenon. It provides updates on the state-of-the-art research since earlier studies in the 1960s on clear-air turbulence, explains recent new understanding into turbulence generation by thunderstorms, and summarizes future challenges in turbulence prediction and avoidance.
Download or read book Hurricane Gilbert Storm Surge Data written by Andrew W. Garcia and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Communities in Action written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-04-27 with total page 583 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the United States, some populations suffer from far greater disparities in health than others. Those disparities are caused not only by fundamental differences in health status across segments of the population, but also because of inequities in factors that impact health status, so-called determinants of health. Only part of an individual's health status depends on his or her behavior and choice; community-wide problems like poverty, unemployment, poor education, inadequate housing, poor public transportation, interpersonal violence, and decaying neighborhoods also contribute to health inequities, as well as the historic and ongoing interplay of structures, policies, and norms that shape lives. When these factors are not optimal in a community, it does not mean they are intractable: such inequities can be mitigated by social policies that can shape health in powerful ways. Communities in Action: Pathways to Health Equity seeks to delineate the causes of and the solutions to health inequities in the United States. This report focuses on what communities can do to promote health equity, what actions are needed by the many and varied stakeholders that are part of communities or support them, as well as the root causes and structural barriers that need to be overcome.
Download or read book Improvements to the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model Including a Comparison of ASCE 7 05 to ASCE 7 10 written by Steven Andrew Bell and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model is a catastrophe model commissioned by the State of Florida with the primary purpose of predicting insured losses of residential buildings due to hurricanes. The model has been in a state of ongoing development since 2001, and is contributed to by several universities around the state of Florida. The model is comprised of three main components. The Meteorological Component predicts and models hurricane behavior. The Vulnerability Component predicts and models building damage given specific wind conditions. Lastly, the Actuarial Component takes data from the other two to predict and analyze economic losses. This paper presents several updates to the Vulnerability Component of the model. First, a more realistic cost analysis is presented, created based on information gathered from actual building contractors as well as RS Means. The new cost analysis includes updates such as unit costs that scale with repair size, considerations for actual roof repair methodology, and various other factors specific to the particular building requirements and market conditions of Florida. Second, an analysis of Contents (as well as ALE) vs. Building damage curves (aka Type 2 curves), which allow the Vulnerability Component of the model to be validated independently of the Meteorological Component, is presented. A procedure for their use in model validation is also given, along with a brief sample validation which illustrates the usefulness of the Type 2 curves in uncovering hidden issues with the model. Finally, a brief study analyzing the effects of the changes made to the wind provisions of ASCE 7-10 is presented. The study shows that the changes implemented in ASCE 7-10 will have little effect, in the case of low-rise, personal residential buildings, on actual building practices in the state of Florida.
Download or read book Analyzing the Relationships Between Hazard Vulnerability Science and Disaster Management Policy and Practice written by David Jean-Paul Alexander and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vulnerability indices have been used extensively in disaster management, and the social vulnerability index (SoVI) has been regarded as the most popular despite its appropriateness and performance not being validated conceptually and empirically. A pedigree matrix and variable crosswalk were used to examine the conceptual relationships between hazard vulnerability science (three selected vulnerability indices, including SoVI) and disaster management (using disaster operations impact model data). The research indicates there are theoretical linkages between hazard vulnerability indicators and disaster management essential elements of information. The analysis also show that SoVI is conceptually the most appropriate among the three vulnerability index. Subsequently, I conducted an empirical study to assess the capability of SoVI to predict damages caused by natural disaster events. SoVI index scores were related to nine Atlantic hurricanes and their associated federal disaster costs and estimated damages at the county level. Ordinary least squares regression, spatial econometrics, and geographically weighted regression are used to evaluate their empirical relationships. The study demonstrates that SoVI has little explanatory power in explaining federal disaster costs per capita and that the disaster impact model variables are more effective in explaining the variation in federal disaster costs per capital rather than the SoVI. The results also show that these relationships varied tremendously across the nine hurricane events. Although using logarithmic transformation to reduce skewness in variables improved model performance marginally, no model involving SoVI performs reasonably well. The research recommends using the disaster impact model outputs for constructing a more reliable predictive model to support disaster operations.
Download or read book Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards written by Birkmann and published by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). This book was released on 2007-01-01 with total page 582 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards presents a broad range of current approaches to measuring vulnerability. It provides a comprehensive overview of different concepts at the global, regional, national, and local levels, and explores various schools of thought. More than 40 distinguished academics and practitioners analyse quantitative and qualitative approaches, and examine their strengths and limitations. This book contains concrete experiences and examples from Africa, Asia, the Americas and Europe to illustrate the theoretical analyses.The authors provide answers to some of the key questions on how to measure vulnerability and they draw attention to issues with insufficient coverage, such as the environmental and institutional dimensions of vulnerability and methods to combine different methodologies.This book is a unique compilation of state-of-the-art vulnerability assessment and is essential reading for academics, students, policy makers, practitioners, and anybody else interested in understanding the fundamentals of measuring vulnerability. It is a critical review that provides important conclusions which can serve as an orientation for future research towards more disaster resilient communities.
Download or read book Damage Prediction Models for Advanced Materials and Composites written by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2018-08-20 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the present study, the assessment and evaluation of various acoustic tile designs were conducted using three-dimensional finite element analysis, which included static analysis, thermal analysis and modal analysis of integral and non-integral tile design options. Various benchmark specimens for acoustic tile designs, including CMC integral T-joint and notched CMC plate, were tested in both room and elevated temperature environment. Various candidate ceramic matrix composite materials were used in the numerical modeling and experimental study. The research effort in this program evolved from numerical modeling and concept design to a combined numerical analysis and experimental study. Many subjects associated with the design and performance of the acoustic tile in jet engine exhaust nozzle have been investigated. Xie, Ming and Ahmad, Jalees and Grady, Joseph E. (Technical Monitor) Glenn Research Center NAS3-27152; WBS 714-09-46
