Download or read book Expected Returns and the Expected Growth in Rents of Commercial Real Estate written by Walter N. Torous and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commercial real estate expected returns and expected rent growth rates are time-varying. Relying on transactions data from a cross-section of U.S. metropolitan areas, we find that up to 30% of the variability of realized returns to commercial real estate can be accounted for by expected return variability, while expected rent growth rate variability explains up to 45% of the variability of realized rent growth rates. The cap rate -- that is, the rent-price ratio in commercial real estate -- captures fluctuations in expected returns for apartments, retail properties, as well as industrial properties. For offices, by contrast, cap rates do not forecast (in-sample) returns even though expected returns on offices are also time-varying. As implied by the present value relation, cap rates marginally forecast office rent growth but not rent growth of apartments, retail properties, and industrial properties. We link these differences in in-sample predictability to differences in the stochastic properties of the underlying commercial real estate data-generating processes. Also, rent growth predictability is observed mostly in locations characterized by higher population density and stringent land use restrictions. The opposite is true for return predictability. The dynamic portfolio implications of time-varying commercial real estate returns are also explored in the context of a portfolio manager investing in the aggregate stock market, Treasury bills, as well as commercial real estate.

Download or read book Expected Returns written by Antti Ilmanen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive reference delivers a toolkit for harvesting market rewards from a wide range of investments. Written by a world-renowned industry expert, the reference discusses how to forecast returns under different parameters. Expected returns of major asset classes, investment strategies, and the effects of underlying risk factors such as growth, inflation, liquidity, and different risk perspectives, are also explained. Judging expected returns requires balancing historical returns with both theoretical considerations and current market conditions. Expected Returns provides extensive empirical evidence, surveys of risk-based and behavioral theories, and practical insights.

Download or read book Commercial Real Estate Investment written by Andrew Baum and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2009 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book uniquely combines academic literature and practical experience to provide a straightforward and integrated view on global real estate investment for pension funds, other institutions and professionals. Thanks to growing investment in commercial property research, property investment has become better understood and better managed than ever before. Many of the problems associated with property investment in the 1980s have found workable solutions through better understanding and management. We can now say that the measurement, benchmarking, forecasting and quantitative management techniques applied to property investments are comparable with other asset classes. Unfortunately, these techniques were not enough to help investors avoid the crash of 2007-2009. We can hope that in the hands of the next generation of investment managers, advisors and analysts, the approaches described in these pages will help to provide a foundation for a responsible and professionally guided recovery. Designed for practitioners facing the tough global market challenges, this book provides a fascinating read for fund managers, investors, banking staff, property advisors and advanced level students.

Download or read book Examination of the Rationality of Real Estate Market Pricing written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cataloged from student submitted PDF version of thesis.

Download or read book The Effects of Rental Growth Expectation on Real Estate Return written by Yishuang Xu and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "The Effects of Rental Growth Expectation on Real Estate Return: a Term Structure Model and an Empirical Test in Hong Kong" by Yishuang, Xu, 徐怡爽, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: The investor's expectation is instinctively to be linked to the asset's return by the finance experts and analysts. However why and how it affects the return are poorly understood and explained. Can the investor's expectation really move the market? How much the influence does it have? This study looks at this well-known puzzle between real estate returns and investors' expectations on rental income growth of real estate assets. Based on the theoretical model in this study, the questions whether, why and how the investors' expected rental income growth has effects on the real estate returns are answered. The study focuses on both private and public real estate (REITs) returns and examines whether they can be explained by the facts in Hong Kong. The theoretical model is derived from the Gordon Growth Model. The novelty of the model is to define the term structure of interest rate on the expected rental income. Empirically, the linkage between the two markets is identified through the REIT's dividend, which is specified to be distributed from 90% of the real estate asset's income. Under this specification, strong evidence is found for expected rental income growth predictive power. In this study, the relationship between the monthly end-of-period REIT's return and monthly expected rental income growth of corresponded real estate asset is tested by panel model, which does the superb job in fitting both cross-sectional and time-varied return patterns of REITs. As the REITs in Hong Kong had just launched since the end of year 2005, the sample period of this study is from November, 2005 to April, 2010. Unlike the standard asset pricing model, this study adds the investor's expectation as one of the factors which determine the REIT's return to adjust the out-performance tendency of certain asset. The study also confirms the hypothesis in private real estate market by finding that investors' expectation on rental growth imposes a positive and significant impact on the real estate return in Hong Kong. The quarterly data series of macro-economic factors, such as Gross Domestic Production, Inflation rate, Interest rate, Employment rate are tested to confirm their effects on the real estate return together with the investor's expectations on both future rental income and inflation. All four real estate sectors, including residential, office, retail and industrial property sectors, are inclusively tested in this study. For both private and public real estate markets in Hong Kong, the investor's expectation has positive effects on the corresponding asset's return. The evidence in this study shows that the change of investor's expectation would cause positive change of REIT's return. It reveals that the investors' expectation plays a vital role in the movement of both private and public real estate markets. When most investors expect a tendency of increasing earning, the real estate return tends to rise with controlling of other economic factors. Though the conclusion of this study is well-known and frequently used to explain or predict the movement of real estate market, the theory behind it is commonly ignored. This study looks deeper into it by improving Gordon Growth Model to capture the investor's expected rental income growth without econometric forecasting or questionnaire investigation. The series...

Download or read book Investing Amid Low Expected Returns written by Antti Ilmanen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-04-14 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elevate your game in the face of challenging market conditions with this eye-opening guide to portfolio management Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least provides an evidence-based blueprint for successful investing when decades of market tailwinds are turning into headwinds. For a generation, falling yields and soaring asset prices have boosted realized returns. However, this past windfall leaves retirement savers and investors now facing the prospect of record-low future expected returns. Emphasizing this pressing challenge, the book highlights the role that timeless investment practices – discipline, humility, and patience – will play in enabling investment success. It then assesses current investor practices and the body of empirical evidence to illuminate the building blocks for improving long-run returns in today’s environment and beyond. It concludes by reviewing how to put them together through effective portfolio construction, risk management, and cost control practices. In this book, readers will also find: The common investor responses so far to the low expected return challenge Extensive empirical evidence on the critical ingredients of an effective portfolio: major asset class premia, illiquidity premia, style premia, and alpha Discussions of the pros and cons of illiquid investments, factor investing, ESG investing, risk mitigation strategies, and market timing Coverage of the whole top-down investment process – throughout the book endorsing humility in tactical forecasting and boldness in diversification Ideal for institutional and active individual investors, Investing Amid Low Expected Returns is a timeless resource that enables investing with serenity even in harsher financial conditions.

Download or read book The Cross Sectional Dispersion of Commercial Real Estate Returns and Rent Growth written by Alberto Plazzi and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the cross-sectional dispersion of returns and growth in net operating income (NOI) of apartments, industrial, retail and office properties using panel data for U.S. metropolitan areas over the period 1986 to 2002. Cross-sectional dispersion is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in commercial real estate. To the extent that most of that volatility is difficult to diversify, cross-sectional dispersion may be an appropriate measure of risk. We document that for apartments, industrial, retail, and office properties, the cross-sectional dispersions are time-varying. Interestingly, their time series fluctuations can be explained by macroeconomic variables such as the term spread, default spread, inflation, and the short rate, which capture macroeconomic fluctuations. The total volatilities are counter-cyclical and also exhibit an asymmetrically larger response following negative return shocks, which might be due to leverage and credit channel effects. Finally, we find a positive relation between future returns and their cross-sectional dispersion. This total risk-return trade-off suggests that investors indeed demand compensation for being exposed to total volatility in the commercial real estate market.

Download or read book Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics written by Leung, Charles K.Y. and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2022-06-16 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook collects a set of academic and accessible chapters to address three questions: What should real estate economists know about macroeconomics? What should macroeconomists know about real estate? What should readers know about the interaction between real estate and macroeconomics?

Download or read book Private Real Estate Markets and Investments written by H. Kent Baker and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2014-08-07 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an overview of private real estate markets and investments. The 14 chapters are divided into three sections for conventional and alternative real estate investments and regulatory issues. Conventional investable real assets examined are retail spaces, apartments, offices, and industrial facilities owned by corporate entities. Alternative real estate assets are uniquely and extensively addressed. These include healthcare, both for facilities and the pricing to make it an investable asset; infrastructure contains roads, bridges, and public utilities; and resources are in land, agriculture, oil, and gas. The regulatory section includes appraisal and valuation, brokerage and transaction costs, sustainability, and green buildings. Readers should gain a greater appreciation of what is needed to be successful when investing in private real estate markets. The share of real estate in institutional portfolios has risen above a previous 5% target, as investors avoid the risks of low interest rates. The world's wealth is shifting to emerging markets where real estate is already a dominant asset class and public securities markets are limited. Institutions with long horizons avoid publicly traded markets because they want to capture any premium from illiquidity. Real estate involves local and cultural restrictions on land usage, sustainability and on the regulation of the illiquidity. For information about public real estate, read Public Real Estate Markets and Investments.

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-24 with total page 1386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Download or read book Profit with Commercial Real Estate written by Candace Bean, ChFC® FRCSM and published by Page Publishing Inc. This book was released on 2022-04-22 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Candy is a Chartered Financial Consultant, who wanted to expand her knowledge and build processes for investing in commercial real estate as a business. This book is a product of that detailed research. Profit with commercial real estate is designed to give you the detailed knowledge necessary to ensure your successful understanding of the basic financial and business considerations to investing in commercial real estate. Throughout the course of this book, you will learn the peculiarities and specifics for investing in commercial real estate. Success in commercial real estate investing requires the willingness to spend the time and effort upfront doing your research and identifying the right type of investment property for you. Any investment involves a balance of risk and work that equals reward. Successful real estate investors understand that they are a business and they must have a solid investment and operational plan in place. The importance of planning your investing business cannot be overemphasized. With the purchase of a commercial property, you are buying an actual business and are making a large financial commitment. Every well-operated business needs basic systems and processes to run efficiently, and managing a commercial property is no different.

Download or read book Commercial Real Estate written by David Geltner and published by South Western Educational Publishing. This book was released on 2014 with total page 826 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rev. ed. of: Commercial real estate analysis and investments / David M. Geltner ... [et al.]. Mason, Ohio: Thompson South-Western, c2007.

Download or read book The Encyclopedia of Commercial Real Estate Advice written by Terry Painter and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-09-14 with total page 533 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first Encyclopedia of Commercial Real Estate The Encyclopedia of Commercial Real Estate Advice covers everything anyone would ever need to know from A – Z on the subject. The 500+ entries inside not only have hard-hitting advice, but many share enlightening stories from the author's experience working on hundreds of deals. This book pulls off making the subjects enjoyable, interesting, and easy to understand. As a bonus, there are 136 time and money savings tips, many of which could save or make you 6 figures or more. Some of the questions this informative guidebook will answer for you are: How to Buy Foreclosed Commercial Properties at a Discount at Auctions Guidelines for Getting Started in Commercial Real Estate and Choosing Low-Risk Properties How to Value a Property in 15 Minutes How to Fake it Until You Make it When Raising Investors Should You Hold, Sell, 1031 Exchange, or Cash-Out Refinance? How to Reposition a Property to Achieve its Highest Value when Buying or Selling 10 Tested Methods to Recession-Proof Your Property How You Can Soar To The Top by Becoming a Developer Trade Secrets for Getting The Best Rate and Terms on Your Loan – Revealed! 11 Ways Property Managers Will Try and Steal From You - How to Catch and Stop Them! Whenever you have a question on any commercial real estate subject, just open this invaluable book and get the guidance you are looking for. Find author Terry Painter: apartmentloanstore.com businessloanstore.com

Download or read book Valuation in the Us Commercial Real Estate written by Eric Ghysels and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider a log-linearized version of a discounted rents model to price commercial real estate as an alternative to traditional hedonic models. First, we verify a key implication of the model, namely, that cap rates forecast commercial real estate returns. We do this using two different methodologies: time series regressions of 21 US metropolitan areas and mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions with aggregate REITs returns. Both approaches confirm that the cap rate is related to fluctuations in future returns. We also investigate the provenance of the predictability. Based on the model, we decompose fluctuations in the cap rate into three parts: (i) local state variables (demographic and local economic variables); (ii) growth in rents; and (iii) an orthogonal part. About 30% of the fluctuation in the cap rate is explained by the local state variables and the growth in rents. We use the cap rate decomposition into our predictive regression and find a positive relation between fluctuations in economic conditions and future returns. However, a larger and significant part of the cap rate predictability is due the orthogonal part, which is unrelated to fundamentals. This implies that economic conditions, which are also used in hedonic pricing of real estate, cannot fully account for future movements in returns. We conclude that commercial real estate prices, at least at an aggregate level, are better modeled as financial assets and that the discounted rent model might be more suitable than traditional hedonic models, at least at an aggregate level.

Download or read book Real Estate Investment written by Colin A. Jones and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-08-18 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook, aimed at undergraduate and postgraduate real estate programmes, provides an overview of real estate investment and pricing in a global context with special attention to the diversification of asset types in three parts. Designed as a successor to Will Fraser’s successful student-led investment book, Principles of Property Investment and Pricing, it encompasses the microeconomics of real estate markets and context alongside pricing failures of real estate highlighted by the impact of the global financial crisis, especially with regard to irrationality and risk. Part 1 focuses on the microeconomics of the real estate sector, covering the complex nature of real estate and the consequences for economic analysis and the operation of the market, the underlying essential processes and principles of real estate investment decision making, including a pricing model, and the significance of real estate cycles and why they occur. Part 2 begins with the characteristics of real estate as an investment, differentiated between direct and indirect investment, and making comparisons with alternative stock market assets, then examines real estate investors and their objectives, including financial institutions, REITs and other indirect vehicles. Additionally, it sets out the frameworks within which real estate investment decisions are made in relation to other investments and focuses on decision-making processes and the practicalities of performance measurement. Emerging real estate debates are discussed in Part 3. These chapters are primarily forward-looking to the implications and challenges for real estate investment, including the consequences of recent aspects of regulation, changes to occupier demand, partly driven by technology but also sustainability pressures, the logic and difficulties of international investment, with a particular focus on emerging markets.

Download or read book The Economics of Commercial Property Markets written by Michael Ball and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-10-12 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new text provides a rigorous analysis of real estate markets. Three main sections cover: microeconomics of property markets the macroeconomics of commercial property the financial economics of property Global empirical examples illustrate the theories and issues. This often complex area is made accessible: each chapter contains a boxed summary and questions for self-testing or discussion.

Download or read book Portfolio Management in Practice Volume 1 written by CFA Institute and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-11 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The companion workbook to the Investment Management volume in the CFA Institute’s Portfolio Management in Practice series provides students and professionals with essential practice regarding key concepts in the portfolio management process. Filled with stimulating exercises, this text is designed to help learners explore the multifaceted topic of investment management in a meaningful and productive way. The Investment Management Workbook is structured to further readers’ hands-on experience with a variety of learning outcomes, summary overview sections, challenging practice questions, and solutions. Featuring the latest tools and information to help users become confident and knowledgeable investors, this workbook includes sections on professionalism in the industry, fintech, hedge fund strategies, and more. With the workbook, readers will learn to: Form capital market expectations Understand the principles of the asset allocation process Determine comprehensive investment strategies within each asset class Integrate considerations specific to high net worth individuals or institutions into the selection of strategies Execute and evaluate chosen strategies and investment managers Well suited for individuals who learn on their own, this companion resource delivers an example-driven method for practicing the tools and techniques covered in the primary Investment Management volume, incorporating world-class exercises based on actual scenarios faced by finance professionals every day.