Download or read book Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations written by R. Koppl and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2002-06-19 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investment and all other economic actions depend on 'subjective' expectations. The problem is how to construct a theory of expectations that assumes people interpret their situations in unpredictable ways. Building on the evolutionary economics of F.A.Hayek, Koppl gives us such a theory. This includes a theory of 'Big Players', demonstrating that discretionary policy interventions create ignorance and uncertainty. The volume uses innovative methods to address many vital problems in economic theory, and connects with many other schools of economics including New Institutional Economics, Constitutional Economics and Post Walsarian Economics.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book The Age of Diminished Expectations written by Paul R. Krugman and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edition looks at how risky behaviour can lead to disaster in private markets, with colourful examples from Lloyd's of London and Sumitomo Metals. Krugman also considers the collapse of the Mexican peso, and the burst of Japan's 'bubble' economy.
Download or read book Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What monetary policy framework, if adopted by the Federal Reserve, would have avoided the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s? The authors use counterfactual simulations of an estimated model of the U.S. economy to evaluate alternative monetary policy strategies. The authors document that policymakers at the time both had an overly optimistic view of the natural rate of unemployment and put a high priority on achieving full employment. They show that in the presence of realistic informational imperfections and with an emphasis on stabilizing economic activity, an optimal control approach would have failed to keep inflation expectations well anchored, resulting in highly volatile inflation during the 1970s. Charts and tables.
Download or read book Economics Economists and Expectations written by William Darity and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004-03-04 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The concept of rational expectations has played a hugely important role in economics over the years. Dealing with the origins and development of modern approaches to expectations in micro and macroeconomics, this book makes use of primary sources and previously unpublished material from such figures as Hicks, Hawtrey and Hart. The accounts of the '
Download or read book Expectations and the Economy written by and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Expectations in Economic Theory written by S. A. Ozga and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with economic theory, not methodology. It does employ certain methodological resolutions. These resolutions and the limitations they impose on the nature and the scope of the analysis are reviewed. The first resolution concerns what kind of a theory is to be discussed. The word theory may mean many things; it may mean a hypothesis put forward as an explanation of something, an idea, or a notion. In a normative sense it may mean a recommendation, a rule, or principle to be followed. In science it usually means a system of hypotheses to be accepted as an explanation of certain facts, a set of general laws, and principles. It is also used to distinguish the general principles and methods of a subject from the practice of it.The theory with which this volume is concerned is that of science. In very general terms it may be defined as a system of hypotheses, one following from another, which permits the reader to derive from known facts and predictions of other facts. If the knowledge of the fact which we predict is important for us, in the sense that it permits us to achieve better the objectives we pursue, the theory may have a practical value. This book is therefore not only a contribution to the analysis of expectations but also an introduction to a number of selected topics in economic theory.
Download or read book Expectations of Modernity written by James Ferguson and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 1999-10-01 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Once lauded as the wave of the African future, Zambia's economic boom in the 1960s and early 1970s was fueled by the export of copper and other primary materials. Since the mid-1970s, however, the urban economy has rapidly deteriorated, leaving workers scrambling to get by. Expectations of Modernity explores the social and cultural responses to this prolonged period of sharp economic decline. Focusing on the experiences of mineworkers in the Copperbelt region, James Ferguson traces the failure of standard narratives of urbanization and social change to make sense of the Copperbelt's recent history. He instead develops alternative analytic tools appropriate for an "ethnography of decline." Ferguson shows how the Zambian copper workers understand their own experience of social, cultural, and economic "advance" and "decline." Ferguson's ethnographic study transports us into their lives—the dynamics of their relations with family and friends, as well as copper companies and government agencies. Theoretically sophisticated and vividly written, Expectations of Modernity will appeal not only to those interested in Africa today, but to anyone contemplating the illusory successes of today's globalizing economy.
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Economic Policy written by Stanley Fischer and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Several areas in economics today have unprecedented significance and vitality. Most people would agree that stabilization policy ranks with the highest of these. Continuing inflation and periodic serious acceleration of inflation combined with high and secularly rising unemployment combine to give the area high priority. This book brings us up to date on an extremely lively discussion involving the role of expectations, and more particularly rational expectations, in the conduct of stabilization policy. . . . Anyone interested in the role of government in economics should read this important book."—C. Glyn Williams, The Wall Street Review of Books "This is a most timely and valuable contribution. . . . The contributors and commentators are highly distinguished and the editor has usefully collated comments and the ensuing discussion. Unusually for a conference proceedings the book is well indexed and it is also replete with numerous and up-to-date references. . . . This is the first serious book to examine the rational expectations thesis in any depth, and it will prove invaluable to anyone involved with macroeconomic policy generally and with monetary economics in particular."—G. K. Shaw, The Economic Journal
Download or read book Consumer Expectations written by Richard Thomas Curtin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-07 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proposes a new comprehensive theory about how expectations are formed and how they shape the macro economy.
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Expectations written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-04 with total page 876 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics
Download or read book Rational Expectations written by Graham Keith Shaw and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Expectations written by Arie Arnon and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-03-20 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a unique historical perspective on expectations in economic theory, and applications of expectations models in economic history. Based on papers presented at the 2017 Thomas Guggenheim Conference, it brings together the work of economists, historians of economics, and economic historians on issues and events concerning expectations in economics and economic history. The contributions address: (i) the history of expectations models; (ii) growth, expectations and political economy; (iii) controversies regarding expectations methods and models; (iv) expectations in theory and reality; and (v) expectations in economic history. The book opens with a lecture by Thomas Guggenheim Prize winner Duncan Foley on the evolution of expectations in modern economic thought. The remaining content is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on the utilization of expectations in the “ancient” and “meso” periods of high theory, i.e., from Smithian to Keynesian approaches. The papers cover topics such as “modern” applications of expectations in both “Tobinesque-Phillips” and “Harrodian-Solowian” contexts, and the debate between Friedmanite and Keynesian approaches to expectation formation. In turn, the last part presents essays on the role of economic expectations in connection with historical events and contexts, ranging from the early 20th century to World War II, and on the application of expectations theory to hyperinflation and stabilization, taking Israel as a case study.
Download or read book The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations written by Tobias F. Rötheli and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The notion that expectations play a key role in economic decision making is a very old one. Over the past 100 years, major advances in the application of this insight in the formulation of economic models have been made in various subfields of economics. The concept of extrapolation, the idea that past observations of a series are the basis for making projections into the future, was present from the start of the modeling of dynamic economic processes"--
Download or read book A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Inflation written by Thomas J. Sargent and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-05-05 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fully expanded edition of the Nobel Prize–winning economist's classic book This collection of essays uses the lens of rational expectations theory to examine how governments anticipate and plan for inflation, and provides insight into the pioneering research for which Thomas Sargent was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in economics. Rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic decisions, yet applying the theory to macroeconomics and econometrics is technically demanding. Here, Sargent engages with practical problems in economics in a less formal, noneconometric way, demonstrating how rational expectations can satisfactorily interpret a range of historical and contemporary events. He focuses on periods of actual or threatened depreciation in the value of a nation's currency. Drawing on historical attempts to counter inflation, from the French Revolution and the aftermath of World War I to the economic policies of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, Sargent finds that there is no purely monetary cure for inflation; rather, monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. This fully expanded edition of Rational Expectations and Inflation includes Sargent's 2011 Nobel lecture, "United States Then, Europe Now." It also features new articles on the macroeconomics of the French Revolution and government budget deficits.
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
