Download or read book Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys written by and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Each quarter since 1968 the National Bureau of Economic Research, in collaboration with the American Statistical Association, has been collecting a large amount of information on the record of forecasting in the U. S. economy. This paper is a progress report on a comprehensive study of the distribution of individual predictions from these surveys. It covers forecasts of quarterly developments in the year ahead for six variables representing inflation, real growth, unemployment, percentage changes in GNP and spending on consumer durables, and business inventory investment. The 79 respondents who participated in at least 12 of the 42 surveys covered constitute a broadly based and diversified group of experts and agents, mostly from the world of corporate business and finance -- executives, analysts, economic consultants, also some government and academic forecasters. The data are in certain respects uniquely rich. The first part of the paper reviews briefly the models of economic expectations and discusses the potential and problems of using survey data for testing these models. The second part offers a comparative analysis of the individual prediction series from the NBER-ASA as well as some earlier surveys. There are gains from combining predictions from different sources, e.g., the group mean forecasts are on the average over time more accurate than most of the corresponding sets of individual forecasts or expectations. But there is also a moderate degree of consistency in the relative 2erformances of individual fore- casters, some of whom score well above average with respect to several variables and predictive horizons. The third section presents the distributions of an array of absolute accuracy measures for the survey respondents, regressions of actual on predicted values, and associated tests of bias and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and realizations tend to decrease, as the target quarter recedes into the future. The tests of the joint null hypothesis that the regressions have zero intercepts and unitary slope coefficients are very unfavorable to expectations of inflation, but they show the forecasts of the other variables generally in much better light. Inflation has been largely underestimated, with the predicted rates lagging behind the actual rates. On the other hand, real growth has been on the average overestimated. The incidence of autocorrelation in the prediction errors was also much higher for inflation than for the other variables. A summary of findings is provided. The fifth and last section lists some additional questions raised by this study, to be dealt with in another paper.
Download or read book The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reports on a comprehensive study of the distributions of summary measures of error for a large collection of quarterly multiperiod predictions of six variables representing inflation, real qrowth, unemployment,and percentage changes in nominal GNP and two of its more volatile components.The data come from surveys conducted since 1968 by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the American Statistical Association and cover more than 70 individuals professionally engaged in forecasting the course of the U. S.economy (mostly economists, analysts, and executives from the world of corporate business and finance). There is considerable differentiation among these forecasts, across the individuals, variables, and predictive horizons covered. Combining corresponding predictions from different sources can result insignificant gains; thus the group mean forecasts are on the average over timemore accurate than most of the corresponding sets of individual forecasts. But there is also a moderate deqree of consistency in the relative performance of a sufficient number of the survey members, as evidenced in positive rank correlations among ratios of the individual to group root mean square errors.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Expectations written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-04 with total page 876 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics
Download or read book The Employment Forecast Survey written by Douglas G. Hartle and published by University of Toronto Press. This book was released on 1962-12-15 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this report Professor Hartle presents the findings of a series of investigations that have been carried out, partly under the auspices and partly with the co-operation, of the Canadian Department of Labour. The object of the investigations, the Employment Forecast Survey, was initiated by the Economics and Research Branch of that Department in 1946 to obtain information about the future levels and trends of employment in industry. The first phase of the investigation was carried out in 1953 by Professor William C. Hood assisted by Professor Hartle, and their report, dealing with the administration, policy, and technique of the Survey, constituted the foundation of the present study. In 1956-7 Professor Hartle conducted further studies of the Survey and its administration, analysing in particular the predictions which have been derived from the forecasts provided by individual establishments, and evaluating improvements which might have been made in the reliability both of the employer's forecasts and the Department's conclusions. The final phase of investigation carried out by Professor Hartle has been concerned mainly with an analysis of the forecasts of individual establishments. Professor Hartle's monograph, comprising as it does the findings of this whole series of studies, thus provides a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the Employment Forecast Survey. It is valuable for its comparison of the EFS with similar surveys conducted in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Canadian Studies in Economics, No. 14.
Download or read book Business Cycle Analysis and Expectational Survey Data written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book ESPECTATIONS AND FORECASTS FROM BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEYS written by Victor ZARNOWITZ and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Download or read book Economic Forecasts and Expectations written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by New York : National Bureau of Economic Research, distributed by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 1969 with total page 630 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Collection of essays in the evaluation of efficiency in economic forecasting methodology - includes estimates of gross national product, consumption patterns, statistical methods, simulation models, etc. References.
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents extensive results from testing for bias and serially correlated errors in a large collection of quarterly multiperiod predictions from surveys conducted since 1968 by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the American Statistical Association. The tests of the joint null hypothesis that the regressions of actual on predicted values have zero intercepts and unitary slope coefficients are very unfavorable to the expectations of inflation, but they show the forecasts of several other variables in a generally much better light. There have been strong tendencies for the forecasters in this period to underestimate inflation and overestimate real growth. Considerable attention is given to the effects of the sample size--the issue of the power of the tests--and also to the extent and role of autocorrelations among the residual errors from these regressions. Rationality in the sense of efficient use of relevant information implies the absence of systematic elements in series of errors from the forecaster's own predictions, measured strictly in the form in which such errors could have been known at the time of the forecast. The frequencies of significant auto-correlations among errors so measured vary greatly across the forecasts for different variables, being very high for inflation, high for inventory investment and the unemployment rate, and much lower for most of the predictions ofthe other variables covered (rates of change in nominal and real GNP and expenditures on consumer durables). The corresponding tests for the group meanforecasts show much less evidence of serially correlated ex ante errors, except for inflation.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Download or read book Business Forecasting written by Michael Gilliland and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-05 with total page 419 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.
Download or read book Business Level Expectations and Uncertainty written by Nicholas Bloom and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Census Bureau's 2015 Management and Organizational Practices Survey (MOPS) utilized innovative methodology to collect five-point forecast distributions over own future shipments, employment, and capital and materials expenditures for 35,000 U.S. manufacturing plants. First and second moments of these plant-level forecast distributions covary strongly with first and second moments, respectively, of historical outcomes. The first moment of the distribution provides a measure of business' expectations for future outcomes, while the second moment provides a measure of business' subjective uncertainty over those outcomes. This subjective uncertainty measure correlates positively with financial risk measures. Drawing on the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of Manufactures for the corresponding realizations, we find that subjective expectations are highly predictive of actual outcomes and, in fact, more predictive than statistical models fit to historical data. When respondents express greater subjective uncertainty about future outcomes at their plants, their forecasts are less accurate. However, managers supply overly precise forecast distributions in that implied confidence intervals for sales growth rates are much narrower than the distribution of actual outcomes. Finally, we develop evidence that greater use of predictive computing and structured management practices at the plant and a more decentralized decision-making process (across plants in the same firm) are associated with better forecast accuracy.
Download or read book A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations written by Mr.José M. Barrionuevo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-06-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982.
Download or read book The Study of the Future written by and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Statistical Reference Index written by and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 840 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
