Download or read book Trimming the Sails written by István Benczes and published by Central European University Press. This book was released on 2008-01-10 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a clear, multidisciplinary and systematic analysis of the relatively new concept of the so-called expansionary fiscal consolidations. This concept suggests that fiscal adjustment should not be in trade-off with economic growth if certain conditions are met. But why do only a few countries and only at certain times experience the expansionary effects, while others not at all? The necessary institutional conditions and circumstances have been totally neglected in the literature, or analyzed only partially at best.
Download or read book Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence written by Mr.Daniel Leigh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.
Download or read book Expansionary Effects of Fiscal Consolidation written by Matthieu Meyer and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The presented thesis investigates whether the Expansionary Fiscal Contraction hypothesis is supported by empirical data from the recent fiscal consolidation in Latvia. I use a structural VAR/event study approach based on the model developed by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). I find that the short-term effects of marginal changes in fiscal policy are in line with conventional Keynesian theory. The results suggest, however, that large fiscal consolidations can have expansionary effects on the economy.
Download or read book Can Fiscal Consolidations be Expansionary in the EU written by Gabriele Giudice and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses non-Keynesian effects in fiscal consolidations in the EU. The analysis is carried out both ex-post, i.e. by looking at the emergence of expansionary consolidations in the past and at their characteristics, and ex-ante, i.e. by simulating with the European Commission QUEST model under which conditions public finance consolidation would exhibit non-Keynesian effects in the current EMU context.
Download or read book The Subjective Well Being Cost of Fiscal Policy Shocks written by Kodjovi M. Eklou and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-01-17 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do discretionary spending cuts and tax increases hurt social well-being? To answer this question, we combine subjective well-being data covering over half a million of individuals across 13 European countries, with macroeconomic data on fiscal consolidations. We find that fiscal consolidations reduce individual well-being in the short run, especially when they are based on spending cuts. In addition, we show that accompanying monetary and exchange rate policies (disinflation, depreciations and the liberalization of capital flows) mitigate the well-being cost of fiscal consolidations. Finally, we investigate the well-being consequences of the two well-knowns expansionary fiscal consolidations episodes taking place in the 80s (in Denmark and Ireland). We find that even expansionary fiscal consolidations can have well-being costs. Our results may therefore shed some light on why some governments may choose to consolidate through taxes even at the cost of economic growth. Indeed, if spending cuts are to generate a large well-being loss, they can trigger an opposition and protest against a fiscal consolidation plan and hence making it politically costly.
Download or read book Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in 18 OECD Countries written by Kwang Jo Jeong and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates the effects of fiscal consolidation on economic growth using panel datasets from 18 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. The estimates of dynamic panel data Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) analysis show that fiscal consolidation is unlikely to be expansionary for GDP growth. Both Arellano-Bond difference GMM estimation and Blundell-Bond system GMM estimation suggest that fiscal consolidation exert negative effects on economic growth. Results do not support the expansionary fiscal consolidation hypothesis. In particular, our analyses find that fiscal consolidations during high debt-to-GDP ratios, based on spending cuts, or with high sovereign default risk exert less negative effects on economic growth than those during low debt-to-GDP ratios, based on tax hikes, or with low sovereign default risk.
Download or read book The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-21 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal consolidation. Using episodes of fiscal consolidation for a sample of 17 OECD countries over the period 1978–2009, we find that fiscal consolidation has typically had significant distributional effects by raising inequality, decreasing wage income shares and increasing long-term unemployment. The evidence also suggests that spending-based adjustments have had, on average, larger distributional effects than tax-based adjustments.
Download or read book The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback written by Mr.Marcello M. Estevão and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-31 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past several years of recession and slow recovery have raised much interest on the effect of fiscal stimulus on economic activity, even as high public debts in many countries would call for fiscal consolidation. To evaluate the delicate balance between stimulus and consolidation requires measuring the size of fiscal multipliers, which often depends on having quarterly data so that exogenous fiscal policy shocks can be identified. We estimate fiscal multipliers using a novel methodology for identifying fiscal shocks within a structural vector autoregressive approach using annual data while controling for debt feedback effects. The estimation focuses on regions with scarce quarterly data (mostly low-income countries), and uses results for advanced economies, emerging market countries, and other broad groupings for which alternative estimates are available to validate the methodology. Differently from advanced and emerging market economies, fiscal consolidation in low-income countries has only a small temporary negative effect on growth while raising medium-term output. Shifting the composition of public spending toward capital expenditure further supports long-run growth.
Download or read book Smart Fiscal Consolidation written by Galina Kolev and published by Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. This book was released on 2013-05-10 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: PDF downloadable for free from http://martenscentre.eu/publications/smart-fiscal-consolidation-strategy-achieving-sustainable-public-finances-and-growth Due to high government debt levels and the dangers of self-defeating austerity, smart fiscal consolidation measures are needed that foster economic growth. A thorough review of the relevant literature provides many useful insights. To regain credibility, a clearly communicated broad reform program (including structural reforms) is required. Targeting mainly public expenditures, rather than revenues, raises the chances of expansionary effects. The timing of consolidation should focus on adjustment in structural terms to leave room for automatic stabilisers. The main part of the study evaluates the impact of individual consolidation and fiscal reform measures on consolidation success, on economic growth (in the long and short term), and on social fairness.
Download or read book The Importance of Institutions in Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations a Critical Assessment of Non Keynesian Effects written by István Benczes and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The short-term effects of fiscal consolidation have attracted an increasing attention from both the academia and policy makers in the recent years. Authors in the literature on non-Keynesian effects usually put the emphasis on the need for the devaluation of the national currency, the accommodating reaction of the monetary authority and the favourable international economic conditions as the necessary accompanying tools of fiscal consolidation, in order to realise short-term expansionary effects. Some also add the necessity of large-scale adjustment; while others support the view that a high and increasing debt ratio or increasing government spending, by triggering an unavoidable adjustment, is the key to experiencing short-term expansionary effects. The composition of adjustment also became a crucial explanation for non-Keynesian effects. However, as the following critical assessment of the literature on expansionary fiscal consolidations will reveal, institutional conditions, such as the importance of the depth of financial intermediation and the influencing role of labour market structure, can prove to be crucial in the occurrence of the desired expansionary short-term effects.
Download or read book Fiscal Consolidation and Public Wages written by Juin-Jen Chang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-06-10 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A New Keynesian model with government production, public compensation, and unemployment is fit to U.S. data to study the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of public wage reductions. We find that accounting for the type of government spending is crucial for its macroeconomic implications. Although reductions in public wages and government purchases of goods have similar effects on total output and the fiscal balance, the former can raise private output slightly, in contrast to the substantial contractionary effects of the latter. In addition, the baseline estimation finds that exogenous public wage reductions decrease private wages. Model counterfactuals show that sufficiently rigid nominal private wages can reverse the response of private wages, as the rigidity dampens the labor reallocation effect from the public to private sector that exerts downward pressure on private wages.
Download or read book Fiscal Adjustments written by Daniel Leigh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-07 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper analyzes the determinants of success of recent fiscal consolidations in the OECD countries as well as the short-run and long-run effects of fiscal adjustments on economic activity by looking at fourteen case studies, panel data for OECD countries, and the results of simulations using a non-Ricardian multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model. The study finds that while fiscal consolidations tend to have short-run contractionary effects, they can be expansionary in the long run, provided that they do not rely excessively on cuts in productive government expenditure. They can also create positive spillover effects for the rest of the world.
Download or read book Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis written by Alberto Alesina and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-25 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.
Download or read book Fiscal Impulses and Their Fiscal Impact written by Sheetal K. Chand and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-05 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal impulse measures are used in the WEO and elsewhere to indicate the changing impact of the budget on the economy. Such measures are intended to provide more accurate indications of whether the budget is becoming more or less expansionary than would just observing moments in the actual budget balance. However, they have been criticized for lacking an analytical rationale. This paper uses a simple framework to show that the fiscal impulse measure can be analytically derived. While this removes one source of criticism, the measure, nevertheless, should be used carefully when making inferences of fiscal impact.
Download or read book Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary written by Francesco Giavazzi and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to conventional wisdom, a fiscal consolidation is likely to contract real aggregate demand. It has often been argued, however, that this conclusion is misleading as it neglects the role of expectations of future policy: if the fiscal consolidation is read by the private sector as a signal that the share of government spending in GDP is being permanently reduced, households will revise upwards their estimate of their permanent income, and will raise current and planned consumption. Only the empirical evidence can sort out which of these two contending views about fiscal policy is more appropriate -- i.e how often the contractionary effect of a fiscal consolidation prevails on its expansionary expectational effect. This paper brings new evidence to bear on this issue drawing on the European exercise in fiscal rectitude of the 1980s, and focusing, in particulars on its two most extreme cases -- Denmark and Ireland. We find that at least in the experience of these two countries the expectations' view has a serious claim to empirical relevance.
Download or read book Fiscal Consolidation Taking Stock of Success Factors Impact and Design written by Vybhavi Balasundharam and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-17 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design
Download or read book Non Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Consolidation written by Szilárd Benk and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
