Download or read book Exchange Rates in South America s Emerging Markets written by Luis Molinas Sosa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-16 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecasting methodology that could beat the random walk, at least for certain forecasting periods. This Element compares the Purchasing Power Parity, the Uncovered Interest Rate, the Sticky Price, the Bayesian Model Averaging, and the Bayesian Vector Autoregression models to the random walk benchmark in forecasting exchange rates between most South American currencies and the US Dollar, and between the Paraguayan Guarani and the Brazilian Real and the Argentinian Peso. Forecasts are evaluated under the criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Direction of Change, and the Diebold-Mariano statistic. The results indicate that the two Bayesian models have greater forecasting power and that there is little evidence in favor of using the other three fundamentals models, except Purchasing Power Parity at longer forecasting horizons.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Arrangements for Emerging Market Economies written by Felipe Larraín B. and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reviews some empirical evidence on the recent performance of alternative exchange rate arrangements in emerging markets. Examines the concrete circumstances under which either polar regime should be adopted. Studies how to make flexibility work in practice, with special attention to inflation targets and alternativie monetary policy rules. Focuses on the possible role of capital controls as a complementary policy.

Download or read book Exchange Rates in Emerging Countries Eleven Empirical Regularities from Latin America and East Asia written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Foreign Exchange Intervention in Inflation Targeters in Latin America written by Mr.Marcos d Chamon and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-28 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foreign exchange intervention is widely used as a policy tool, particularly in emerging markets, but many facets of this tool remain limited, especially in the context of flexible exchange rate regimes. The Latin American experience can be informative because some of its largest countries adopted floating exchange rate regimes and inflation targeting while continuing to intervene in foreign exchange markets. This edited volume reviews detailed accounts from several Latin American countries’ central banks, and it provides insight into how and with what aim many interventions were decided and implemented. This book documents the effectiveness of intervention and pays special attention to the role of foreign exchange intervention policy within inflation-targeting monetary frameworks. The main lesson from Latin America’s foreign exchange interventions, in the context of inflation targeting, is that the region has had a considerable degree of success. Transparency and a clear communication policy have been key. For economies that are not highly dollarized, rules-based intervention helped contain financial instability and build international reserves while preserving inflation targets. The Latin American experience can help other countries in the design and implementation of their policies.

Download or read book Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets written by Andrés Velasco and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Exchange Rate Politics in Latin America written by Carol Wise and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most of the analysis of Latin American exchange rate problems and policies has concentrated on the economic side of things. This volume instead examines the politics of exchange rate management in four nations that had very different approaches and results. Although the Mexican peso crash, Brazil's currency crisis, Argentina's maintenance of a currency board, and Venezuelan policy responses to the shocks of 1997-98 have had major international financial ramifications, the origins and outcomes of these dramatic events have yet to be analyzed in a single volume. The contributors tie these policy episodes together using solid comparative analysis, in order to better inform the policy debate on these issues.

Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets written by Marialuz Moreno Badia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-10 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of emerging markets have experienced substantial real exchange rate appreciation in recent years, generating concerns about competitiveness and prompting policymakers to respond with a combination of mitigating policies. This paper shows that fiscal policy can play a role in alleviating these pressures. Using a sample of 28 emerging market economies over 1983-2011, we estimate a dynamic model of the real exchange rate and find that a permanent fiscal adjustment may reduce appreciation pressures over the long term. Furthermore, the composition of public spending matters, with reductions in current spending playing a key role. To illustrate the importance of these findings, the paper focuses on the case of Brazil. Our results suggest that maintaining fiscal discipline while increasing public investment in Brazil is likely to ease real appreciation pressures, highlighting the importance of tackling long-standing budget rigidities.

Download or read book Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization written by Augusto de la Torre and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006-10-20 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Back in the early 1990s, economists and policy makers had high expectations about the prospects for domestic capital market development in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. Unfortunately, they are now faced with disheartening results. Stock and bond markets remain illiquid and segmented. Debt is concentrated at the short end of the maturity spectrum and denominated in foreign currency, exposing countries to maturity and currency risk. Capital markets in Latin America look particularly underdeveloped when considering the many efforts undertaken to improve the macroeconomic environment and to reform the institutions believed to foster capital market development. The disappointing performance has made conventional policy recommendations questionable, at best. 'Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization' analyzes where we stand and where we are heading on capital market development. First, it takes stock of the state and evolution of Latin American capital markets and related reforms over time and relative to other countries. Second, it analyzes the factors related to the development of capital markets, with particular interest on measuring the impact of reforms. And third, in light of this analysis, it discusses the prospects for capital market development in Latin America and emerging economies and the implications for the reform agenda.

Download or read book Collateral Damage written by Mr.Pablo Druck and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-29 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document that, historically, although stronger growth in the U.S. increases growth in emerging markets, U.S. dollar appreciation (depreciation) cycles—which are highly persistent—mitigate (amplify) the impact on real GDP growth in emerging markets. We argue that the main transmission channel of the latter is through an income effect: as the dollar appreciates, commodity prices fall; weaker commodity prices depress domestic demand via lower real income; real GDP in emerging markets decelerates; and vice versa. These effects hold despite any potential expenditure-switching effect resulting from the relative (to the U.S. dollar) currency depreciation of emerging market economies. We also show the negative effect on emerging markets’ growth of U.S. interest rates beyond the effects of the U.S. real exchange rate and real GDP growth. Therefore, at the time of writing, emerging markets’ growth is expected to remain subdued reflecting, intera alia, the expected persistence of the strong dollar and the anticipated increased in the U.S. interest rates.

Download or read book Internationalization of Emerging Market Currencies written by Mr.Faisal Ahmed and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-19 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Volatility in Emerging Economies written by Abdulkader M. ALJANDALI and published by Transnational Press London. This book was released on 2018-04-13 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a contribution to the knowledge concerning the volatility and forecasting of exchange rates in the emerging markets. It focuses on the exchange rates of the leading trading blocs in that part of the world and examines exchange rates of selected emerging countries across continents in order to explain local and regional variations in exchange rates and the determinants of fluctuations in selected countries in Africa, Asia, Central and Latin America. Exchange rates of countries from the four different regions are investigated separately, followed by analysis within and across regions to identify common patterns of exchange rates fluctuations. Monthly forecasts are generated for a period of 24 months to test the performance of the times series, cointegration and combination techniques used in this book. The results show that exchange rates of countries in the same region behave similarly following a shock to the system. Additionally, exchange rates of countries at the same stage of development albeit in different geographical location (Central America, Southern Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia) share some similarities. In this book, I argue that all exchange rates examined have been volatile. Contents PrefaceChapter I. IntroductionChapter II. Foreign Exchange Forecasting using Macroeconomic VariablesChapter III. Empirical Methods and ApplicationsChapter IV. Times Series ForecastingChapter V. ARDL Cointegration ForecastingChapter VI Combination Forecasting of Exchange RatesChapter VII Conclusions, Summary and Recommendations for Policy MakersAppendix 1 Exchange rate plots over time

Download or read book Economic and Financial Developments in Latin America written by S. Motamen-Samadian and published by Springer. This book was released on 2006-06-06 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book evaluates the economic effect of monetary policies and exchange rate arrangements within Latin America. Using theoretical and empirical studies, the text examines pertinent issues in Argentina, Mexico and Brazil, including the role of currency board, inflation targeting and international prudential regulation in banking crisis reduction.

Download or read book Don t Fix Don t Float written by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Development Centre and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2001 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Don ́t Fix, Don ́t Float is a book about credibility, or lack thereof. It deals with questions pertaining to international financial architecture from the perspective of developing countries, emerging markets and transition economies. Should the monetary authority fix the exchange rate of the national currency? Should it instead let the currency float in foreign exchange markets? What about bands, baskets and crawls between the fix and the float corners? Answering these questions is of significance to the national economy involved and, with regard to global finance, often beyond. In the same way that there may never be a pure float, even among key currencies, an instant fix does not provide a fast lane to credibility. Credibility is earned abroad as the development process reinforces institution building in monetary, financial and budgetary matters. Indeed, rules for budgetary adjustment (such as the zero deficit in Argentina or the EU Stability and Growth Pact) are necessary for any exchange-rate regime to deliver economic growth and development. In Don ́t Fix, Don ́t Float, the case for intermediate regimes is made for five country groups in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Developing countries, emerging markets and transition economies, together with the OECD area, are facing the consequences of a worsening global economic outlook. In this environment, the development perspective underlying Don t Fix, Don t Float is clearly essential.

Download or read book How Do Exchange Rate Regimes Affect Firms Incentives to Hedge Currency Risk Micro Evidence for Latin America written by Herman Kamil and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a unique dataset with information on the currency composition of firms' assets and liabilities in six Latin-American countries, I investigate how the choice of exchange rate regime affects firms' foreign currency borrowing decisions and the associated currency mismatches in their balance sheets. I find that after countries switch from pegged to floating exchange rate regimes, firms reduce their levels of foreign currency exposures, in two ways. First, they reduce the share of debt contracted in foreign currency. Second, firms match more systematically their foreign currency liabilities with assets denominated in foreign currency and export revenues--effectively reducing their vulnerability to exchange rate shocks. More broadly, the study provides novel evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes on the level of un-hedged foreign currency debt in the corporate sector and thus on aggregate financial stability.

Download or read book Foreign Exchange Exposure in Emerging Markets written by Gastón Fornés and published by Palgrave MacMillan. This book was released on 2009 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is one of the first works studying foreign exchange exposure in emerging markets. The analysis takes a broad approach and concludes with a tool that multinatonal companies can apply to improve the effectiveness of their risk management activities against variations in the exchange rate as well as other business risks

Download or read book Time varying Real Exchange Rate Risk in Emerging Markets written by Premalata Shenbagaraman and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Specifically, this study investigates the relationship between changes in the real exchange rate and the pricing of risky financial assets in seventeen emerging and frontier markets of South & East Asia, Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe. National investor groups are delineated by deviations from purchasing power parity, which causes them to evaluate differently the real returns from the same security. In a model with deviations from purchasing power parity, risky assets are priced based on their covariance with the world market and their covariance with changes in the real exchange rate. The study employs a conditional approach that allows for time varying risk premia in the presence of rational exchange rate risk hedging behavior by international investors. The results strongly support the multi-factor conditional international asset-pricing model with real exchange rate risk. The null hypothesis that exchange rate risk is not priced is rejected for all seventeen emerging markets. Implications are derived for optimal portfolio choices and currency risk hedging strategies for individual investors and firms seeking to diversify their portfolio holdings by investing in emerging market stocks and bonds.

Download or read book The New New World written by Gilbert Le Gras and published by Financial Times/Prentice Hall. This book was released on 2002 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With democratic governments and new economic controls in place, and monetary union a distinct possibility, South American economies once again seem attractive to industry and investors. The New New World examines the politics, markets, infrastructure, commodities and demographics of the Mercosur and Andean Community nations. It evaluates the South American markets for both current and future investors and will aid your assessment of the viability and return on investments in this new world.