Download or read book Exchange Rate Responses to Exogenous Shocks in Developing Countries written by Mohsin S. Khan and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dynamic Responses to Policy and Exogenous Shocks in an Empirical Developing Country Model with Rational Expectations written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-03-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dynamic responses of a developing economy to a variety of policy and external shocks are studied using an empirical macroeconomic model which embodies rational expectations, perfect capital mobility, and import rationing. These features, which are relatively new in developing-country modelling, prove to be quite important in determining the model’s dynamic properties. This suggests that macroeconomic management in developing countries--such as that involved in short-run stabilization--requires that such features be explicitly taken into account.
Download or read book New Directions in the World Economy written by Bela Balassa and published by Springer. This book was released on 1989-06-18 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An attempt to assist policy-makers in developing countries to cope with the challenges they face during the rest of the century and beyond. For this purpose it provides information on the experience of developing, developed and socialist countries.
Download or read book Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low Income Countries written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Download or read book External Shocks and Inflation in Developing Countries Under a Real Exchange Rate Rule written by Mr.Peter Montiel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-09-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows that the response of inflation to external shocks is very different when the authorities target the real exchange rate than when they follow a fixed exchange rate or a preannounced crawling peg. Specifically, shocks that would have no effect on the steady-state inflation rate under a fixed exchange rate are either inflationary or deflationary under a real exchange rate rule. Moreover, irrespective of the degree of capital mobility, the authorities will find it difficult to mitigate the destabilizing effects of real shocks on the price level by using monetary policy, except possibly in the very short run.
Download or read book External shocks food security and development written by Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2016-12-23 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We conduct an ex ante evaluation of the impacts of a potential global recession within the next years and the possible policy responses to support economic activity and improve social indicators in five Central American countries: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We review the economic and social evolution of the past decades in those countries, and we consider a global scenario that includes further deceleration of world growth, lower commodity prices, and a decline in remittances and capital flows to those countries. We simulate those scenarios and related policy issues using recursive dynamic CGE models for the countries considered. The global shock is run under fixed exchange rates and flexible exchange rates (in the case of El Salvador, which has adopted the US dollar as the domestic currency, the simulation of a flexible exchange rate is just indicative). In all cases, a flexible exchange rate delivers better results in terms of GDP per capita, by softening the overall economic impact of the external shocks. Two possible interventions to deal with the recession are simulated: one focuses on policies to strengthen the safety net for the poor; the other applies a more general macroeconomic stimulus (a tax cut plus a modest increase in public investments, financed by un-conventional monetary policy) to try to cushion the shock. For all countries except El Salvador, these two simulations are run with a flexible exchange rate. In the first policy simulation GDP per capita in those countries does not change much, but the poor groups targeted clearly improve their incomes and consumption, helping them the most during the years of the negative shocks. In the second simulation, the macroeconomic stimulus improves the performance of the economies, allowing GDP per capita to be higher than in the case of the shock alone. In summary, facing a potential global downturn as the one simulated here, those countries that have flexible exchange rates and the use of domestic monetary policies can use a mix of adjustment in exchange rates combined with targeted poverty transfers and macroeconomic stimulus to alleviate the shock. El Salvador, which does not have the exchange rate and monetary instruments, will require further support from multilateral and bilateral sources to soften the shock
Download or read book Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates written by Mathias Hoffmann and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the hypothesis that in a small open economy flexible exchange rates act as a shock absorber and mitigate the effects of external shocks more effectively than fixed exchange rate regimes. Using a sample of 42 developing countries, the paper assesses whether the responses of real GDP, the trade balance and the real exchange rate to world output and world real interest rate shocks differ across exchange rate regimes. The paper shows that there are significant differences in the variability of macroeconomic aggregates under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes.
Download or read book Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In spite of the attention paid exchange rates in recent economic debates on developing countries, relatively few studies have systematically analyzed in detail the various ramifications of exchange rate policy in these countries. In this new volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research, leading economists use rigorous models to tackle various exchange rate issues, while also illuminating policy implications that emerge from their analyses. The volume, divided into four main sections, addresses: the role of exchange rates in stabilization programs and the adjustment process; the importance of exchange rate policy during liberalization reform in developing countries; exchange rate problems relevant and unique to developing countries, illustrated by case studies; and the problems defining, measuring, and identifying determinants of real exchange rates. Authors of individual papers examine the relation between commercial policies and exchange rates, the role of exchange rate policy in stabilization programs, the effectiveness of devaluations as a policy tool, and the interaction between exchange rate terms of trade an capital flow. This research will not only prove crucial to our understanding of the role of exchange rates in developing countries, but will clearly set the standard for future work in the field.
Download or read book The Balance of Payments Effects of External Shocks and of Policy Responses to These Shocks written by Bela Balassa and published by Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. This book was released on 1981 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-16 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many emerging market economies have relied on foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in response to gross capital inflows. In this paper, we study whether FXI has been an effective tool to dampen the effects of these inflows on the exchange rate. To deal with endogeneity issues, we look at the response of different countries to plausibly exogenous gross inflows, and explore the cross country variation of FXI and exchange rate responses. Consistent with the portfolio balance channel, we find that larger FXI leads to less exchange rate appreciation in response to gross inflows.
Download or read book Trade Shocks written by Paul Collier and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Macroeconomic Responses by Developing Countries to Changes in External Economic Conditions written by Willem H. Buiter and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper presents a non-technical survey of some of the issues involved in the design of stabilization policy 10 developng countries with special emphasis on policy responses to external shocks. First, the six imost imortant external economic parameters of developing countries are reviewed; I) the terms of trade, 2) the growth of world markets, 3) the cost and availability of private external finance, 4) the cost and availability of official and other concessional finance, including aid, 5) the world rate of inflation and 6) the exchange rates between the currencies of the major industrial countries. The paper then reviews the macroeconomic policy arsenal and the demand and supply effects of the various policy instruments (monetarv and credit poiicy, the entire array ot fiscal instruments, exchange rate policy, the use of exchange and capital controls and incomes policy). Finally, there is a discussion of stabilization responses to four esternal shocks: a deterioration in the terms of trade, a slowdown in the rate of qrowth of export demand, an increase in the interest rate at which developing countries borrow abroad and an increase in the external rate of inflation. The prevalence of repressed financial markets and credit rationing makes effective demand and effectitie supply responses to monetery fiscal and exchange rate policy quite difterent from what they are in most of the industrial world
Download or read book Limits of Floating Exchange Rates written by Mr.Sebastian Weber and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-02-01 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A traditional argument in favor of flexible exchange rates is that they insulate output better from real shocks, because the exchange rate can adjust and stabilize demand for domestic goods through expenditure switching. This argument is weakened in models with high foreign currency debt and low exchange rate pass-through to import prices. The present study evaluates the empirical relevance of these two factors. We analyze the transmission of real external shocks to the domestic economy under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes for a broad sample of countries in a Panel VAR and let the responses vary with foreign currency indebtedness and import structure. We find that flexible exchange rates do not insulate output better from external shocks if the country imports mainly low pass-through goods and can even amplify the output response if foreign indebtedness is high.
Download or read book Response of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate to Real Disturbances in Developing Countries written by Mr.Mohsin S. Khan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a simple dependent - economy framework, this paper outlines the links between the equilibrium real exchange rate and some of its fundamental exogenous determinants, mainly terms of trade movements and commercial policy changes. Drawing on existing studies of trade flows in developing countries, it is possible to derive plausible quantitative ranges for the response of the equilibrium real exchange rate to both external and policy-induced shocks. The results should be particularly relevant in designing real exchange rate targets and rules that allow for movements in the equilibrium real exchange rate in response to various shocks.
Download or read book Measuring the Effect of External Shocks and the Polic y Response to Them written by F. Desmond McCarthy and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1994 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can the governments in Eastern Europe and developing countries reduce their vulnerability to such shocks? What are the appropriate policy responses? Here is a method for measuring the effect of external shocks on the current account, applied to the Philippines.
Download or read book Developing Country Policy Responses to Exogenous Shocks Policy Responses to Exogenous Shocks in Developing Countries written by Bela A. Balassa and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Preemptive Policies and Risk Off Shocks in Emerging Markets written by Ms. Mitali Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-01-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that “preemptive” capital flow management measures (CFM) can reduce emerging markets and developing countries’ (EMDE) external finance premia during risk-off shocks, especially for vulnerable countries. Using a panel dataset of 56 EMDEs during 1996–2020 at monthly frequency, we document that countries with preemptive policies in place during the five year window before risk-off shocks experienced relatively lower external finance premia and exchange rate volatility during the shock compared to countries which did not have such preemptive policies in place. We use the episodes of Taper Tantrum and COVID-19 as risk-off shocks. Our identification relies on a difference-in-differences methodology with country fixed effects where preemptive policies are ex-ante by construction and cannot be put in place as a response to the shock ex-post. We control the effects of other policies, such as monetary policy, foreign exchange interventions (FXI), easing of inflow CFMs and tightening of outflow CFMs that are used in response to the risk-off shocks. By reducing the impact of risk-off shocks on countries’ funding costs and exchange rate volatility, preemptive policies enable countries’ continued access to international capital markets during troubled times.
