Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics Learning and Misperception written by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a new explanation for the forward-premium and the delayed-overshooting puzzles. Both puzzles arise from a systematic under-reaction of short-term interest rate forecasts to current innovations. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation; the bias can be so severe as to lead to negative coeffcients in the 'Fama' regression; delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of interest rate innovations and the degree of under-reaction; lastly, for G-7 countries against the U.S., these puzzles can be rationalized for values of the model's parameters that match empirical estimates.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Martin D. D. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-03-14 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and in-depth look at exchange-rate dynamics Variations in the foreign exchange market influence all aspects of the world economy, and understanding these dynamics is one of the great challenges of international economics. This book provides a new, comprehensive, and in-depth examination of the standard theories and latest research in exchange-rate economics. Covering a vast swath of theoretical and empirical work, the book explores established theories of exchange-rate determination using macroeconomic fundamentals, and presents unique microbased approaches that combine the insights of microstructure models with the macroeconomic forces driving currency trading. Macroeconomic models have long assumed that agents—households, firms, financial institutions, and central banks—all have the same information about the structure of the economy and therefore hold the same expectations and uncertainties regarding foreign currency returns. Microbased models, however, look at how heterogeneous information influences the trading decisions of agents and becomes embedded in exchange rates. Replicating key features of actual currency markets, these microbased models generate a rich array of empirical predictions concerning trading patterns and exchange-rate dynamics that are strongly supported by data. The models also show how changing macroeconomic conditions exert an influence on short-term exchange-rate dynamics via their impact on currency trading. Designed for graduate courses in international macroeconomics, international finance, and finance, and as a go-to reference for researchers in international economics, Exchange-Rate Dynamics guides readers through a range of literature on exchange-rate determination, offering fresh insights for further reading and research. Comprehensive and in-depth examination of the latest research in exchange-rate economics Outlines theoretical and empirical research across the spectrum of modeling approaches Presents new results on the importance of currency trading in exchange-rate determination Provides new perspectives on long-standing puzzles in exchange-rate economics End-of-chapter questions cement key ideas
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Norman C. Miller and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2014-09-26 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) puzzle has remained a moot point since it first circulated economic discourse in 1984 and, despite a number of attempts at a solution, the UIP puzzle and other anomalies in Exchange Rate Economics continue to perplex
Download or read book Working Paper Series written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Rethinking Expectations written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-23 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.
Download or read book Monetary Policy and the Volatility of Real Exchange Rates in New Zealand written by Kenneth D. West and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The relationship between interest rates and exchange rates is puzzling and poorly understood. But under some standard assumptions, interest rates can be adjusted to smooth real exchange rate movements at the possible price of increased volatility in other variables. In New Zealand, estimates made under some generous suppositions about what monetary policy is able to accomplish suggest that decreasing real exchange rate volatility by about 25% would require increasing output volatility by about 10-15%, inflation volatility by about 0-15% and interest rate volatility by about 15-40%"--NBER website
Download or read book Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle written by Philippe Bacchetta and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical evidence shows that macroeconomic fundamentals have little explanatory power for nominal exchange rates. On the other hand, the recent microstructure approach to exchange rates' has shown that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flows. This suggests that investor heterogeneity might be key to understanding exchange rate dynamics, in contrast to the common representative agent approach in macroeconomic models of exchange rate determination. To explore this issue, we introduce investor heterogeneity into an otherwise standard monetary model of exchange rate determination. There are two types of heterogeneity: dispersed information about fundamentals and non-fundamentals based heterogeneity (e.g., liquidity traders). We show that information dispersion leads to magnification and endogenous persistence of the impact of non-fundamentals trade on the exchange rate rational confusion about the source of exchange rate fluctuations. Higher order expectations, familiar from Keynes' beauty contest', partly contribute to these results. The implications of the model are consistent with the evidence on the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals: (i)fundamentals play little role in explaining exchange rate movements in the short to medium run, (ii) over longer horizons the exchange rate is primarily driven by fundamentals, (iii) exchange rate changes are a weak predictor of future fundamentals.
Download or read book How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates written by Martin D. D. Evans and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper tests whether macroeconomic news is transmitted to exchange rates via the transactions process and if so, what share occurs via transactions versus the traditional direct channel. We identify the link between order flow and macro news using a heteroskedasticity-based approach, a la Rigobon and Sack (2002). In both daily and intra-daily data, order flow varies considerably with macro news flow. At least half of the effect of macro news on exchange rates is transmitted via order flow.
Download or read book Productivity Shocks and Delayed Exchange rate Overshooting written by Christian Pierdzioch and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book NBER Reporter written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Economic Effects of Currency Unions written by Silvana Tenreyro and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new instrumental-variable (IV) approach to estimate the effects of different exchange rate regimes on bilateral outcomes. The basic idea is that the characteristics of the exchange rate regime between two countries (exchange rate variability, fixed or float, autonomous or common currencies) are partially related to the independent decisions of these countries to peg explicitly or de facto to a third currency, notably that of a main anchor. Our approach is to use this component of the exchange rate regime as an IV in regressions of bilateral outcomes. We illustrate the methodology with one specific application: the economic e.ects of currency unions. The likelihood that two countries independently adopt the currency of the same anchor country is used as an instrument for whether they share or not a common currency. Three findings stand out. First, sharing a common currency enhances trade supporting previous work by Rose [2000]. Second, a common currency increases price co-movements; this finding is consistent with the observation that a large part of the variation in real exchange rates is caused by fluctuations in nominal exchange rates. Finally, a common currency decreases the co-movement of shocks to real GDP. This is consistent with the view that currency unions lead to greater specialization.
Download or read book Work Costs and Nonconvex Preferences in the Estimation of Labor Supply Models written by Bradley T. Heim and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Alternative Interpretation of the resource Curse written by Ricardo Hausmann and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The existence of a natural resource curse has been a longstanding theme in the economic literature and in policy discussions. We propose an alternative mechanism and study its policy implications. The mechanism is based on the interaction between two building blocks: specialization in non-tradables and financial market imperfections. We show that if a country has a sufficiently large non-resource tradable sector, relative prices can be stable, even when the resource sector generates significant volatility in the demand for non-tradables. However, when the non-resource tradable sector disappears, the economy becomes much more volatile, because shocks to the demand for non-tradables - possibly associated with shocks to resource income - will not be accommodated by movements in the allocation of labor but instead by expenditure-switching. This requires much higher relative price movements. The presence of bankruptcy costs makes interest rates dependent on relative price volatility. These two effects interact causing the economy to specialize inefficiently away from non-resource tradables: the less it produces of them, the greater the volatility of relative prices, the higher the interest rate the sector faces, causing it to shrink even further until it disappears. At that point, the economy will face an even higher interest rate and a lower level of capital and output in the non-tradable sector. An increase in resource income that leads to specialization causes a large decline in welfare: thus the idea of the curse. Specialization is determined by the expected size and volatility in resource income. The paper justifies stabilization and savings policies as well as policies to make financial markets more efficient. However, we also find some support for more interventionist second-best trade and financial.
Download or read book Noise Trading and the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Nominal and Real Exchange Rates written by Christian Pierdzioch and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book R D and the Patent Premium written by Ashish Arora and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the effect of patenting on R & D with a model linking a firm's R & D effort with its decision to patent, recognizing that R & D and patenting affect one another and are both driven by many of the same factors. Using survey data for the U.S. manufacturing sector, we estimate the increment to the value of an innovation realized by patenting it, and then analyze the effect on R & D of changing that premium. Although patent protection is found to provide a positive premium on average in only a few industries, our results also imply that it stimulates R & D across almost all manufacturing industries, with the magnitude of that effect varying substantially.
Download or read book International Financial Adjustment written by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The paper proposes a unified framework to study the dynamics of net foreign assets and exchange rate movements. We show that deteriorations in a country's net exports or net foreign asset position have to be matched either by future net export growth (trade adjustment channel) or by future increases in the returns of the net foreign asset portfolio (hitherto unexplored financial adjustment channel). Using a newly constructed data set on US gross foreign positions, we find that stabilizing valuation effects contribute as much as 31% of the external adjustment. Our theory also has asset pricing implications. Deviations from trend of the ratio of net exports to net foreign assets predict net foreign asset portfolio returns one quarter to two years ahead and net exports at longer horizons. The exchange rate affects the trade balance and the valuation of net foreign assets. It is forecastable in and out of sample at one quarter and beyond. A one standard deviation decrease of the ratio of net exports to net foreign assets predicts an annualized 4% depreciation of the exchange rate over the next quarter"--NBER website
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
