Download or read book Exchange Market Pressures and Speculative Capital Flows in Selected European Countries written by Ms.Inci Ötker and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-02-01 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in an attempt to identify the roles of macroeconomic fundamentals and speculative market pressures in the recent crisis, as well as earlier devaluations in adjustable fixed exchange rate systems in the European currency markets. For a sample of five countries, including Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Norway, and Sweden, our empirical analyses show that both economic fundamentals and speculative factors have a significant influence on the probability of devaluations. The recent experience in the European foreign exchange markets suggests that the latest realignments are mainly the result of foreign exchange market tensions amidst the growing conflict between the needs of the domestic economies and the policies needed to maintain fixed exchange rates. Our results confirm that regardless of the source of the deterioration in economic conditions, market participants perceived the existing parities of the currencies in these five countries as inconsistent with their underlying economic fundamentals, thus effectively bringing about either a realignment or a modification of the exchange arrangement.
Download or read book Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets written by Mahmood Pradhan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Download or read book Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises written by Ms.Inci Ötker and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-11-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period.
Download or read book Working Paper Summaries WP 94 1 WP 94 76 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-08-01 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Download or read book Money Capital Mobility and Trade written by Guillermo A. Calvo and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essays by leading economists and scholars reflecting on Mundell's broad influence on modern open-economy macroeconomics.
Download or read book Computational Science and Its Applications ICCSA 2022 written by Osvaldo Gervasi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-07-14 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The eight-volume set LNCS 13375 – 13382 constitutes the proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Computational Science and Its Applications, ICCSA 2022, which was held in Malaga, Spain during July 4 – 7, 2022. The first two volumes contain the proceedings from ICCSA 2022, which are the 57 full and 24 short papers presented in these books were carefully reviewed and selected from 279 submissions. The other six volumes present the workshop proceedings, containing 285 papers out of 815 submissions. These six volumes includes the proceedings of the following workshops: Advances in Artificial Intelligence Learning Technologies: Blended Learning, STEM, Computational Thinking and Coding (AAILT 2022); Workshop on Advancements in Applied Machine-learning and Data Analytics (AAMDA 2022); Advances in information Systems and Technologies for Emergency management, risk assessment and mitigation based on the Resilience (ASTER 2022); Advances in Web Based Learning (AWBL 2022); Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers: Technologies and Applications (BDLTA 2022); Bio and Neuro inspired Computing and Applications (BIONCA 2022); Configurational Analysis For Cities (CA Cities 2022); Computational and Applied Mathematics (CAM 2022), Computational and Applied Statistics (CAS 2022); Computational Mathematics, Statistics and Information Management (CMSIM); Computational Optimization and Applications (COA 2022); Computational Astrochemistry (CompAstro 2022); Computational methods for porous geomaterials (CompPor 2022); Computational Approaches for Smart, Conscious Cities (CASCC 2022); Cities, Technologies and Planning (CTP 2022); Digital Sustainability and Circular Economy (DiSCE 2022); Econometrics and Multidimensional Evaluation in Urban Environment (EMEUE 2022); Ethical AI applications for a human-centered cyber society (EthicAI 2022); Future Computing System Technologies and Applications (FiSTA 2022); Geographical Computing and Remote Sensing for Archaeology (GCRSArcheo 2022); Geodesign in Decision Making: meta planning and collaborative design for sustainable and inclusive development (GDM 2022); Geomatics in Agriculture and Forestry: new advances and perspectives (GeoForAgr 2022); Geographical Analysis, Urban Modeling, Spatial Statistics (Geog-An-Mod 2022); Geomatics for Resource Monitoring and Management (GRMM 2022); International Workshop on Information and Knowledge in the Internet of Things (IKIT 2022); 13th International Symposium on Software Quality (ISSQ 2022); Land Use monitoring for Sustanability (LUMS 2022); Machine Learning for Space and Earth Observation Data (MALSEOD 2022); Building multi-dimensional models for assessing complex environmental systems (MES 2022); MOdels and indicators for assessing and measuring the urban settlement deVElopment in the view of ZERO net land take by 2050 (MOVEto0 2022); Modelling Post-Covid cities (MPCC 2022); Ecosystem Services: nature’s contribution to people in practice. Assessment frameworks, models, mapping, and implications (NC2P 2022); New Mobility Choices For Sustainable and Alternative Scenarios (NEMOB 2022); 2nd Workshop on Privacy in the Cloud/Edge/IoT World (PCEIoT 2022); Psycho-Social Analysis of Sustainable Mobility in The Pre- and Post-Pandemic Phase (PSYCHE 2022); Processes, methods and tools towards RESilient cities and cultural heritage prone to SOD and ROD disasters (RES 2022); Scientific Computing Infrastructure (SCI 2022); Socio-Economic and Environmental Models for Land Use Management (SEMLUM 2022); 14th International Symposium on Software Engineering Processes and Applications (SEPA 2022); Ports of the future - smartness and sustainability (SmartPorts 2022); Smart Tourism (SmartTourism 2022); Sustainability Performance Assessment: models, approaches and applications toward interdisciplinary and integrated solutions (SPA 2022); Specifics of smart cities development in Europe (SPEED 2022); Smart and Sustainable Island Communities (SSIC 2022); Theoretical and Computational Chemistryand its Applications (TCCMA 2022); Transport Infrastructures for Smart Cities (TISC 2022); 14th International Workshop on Tools and Techniques in Software Development Process (TTSDP 2022); International Workshop on Urban Form Studies (UForm 2022); Urban Regeneration: Innovative Tools and Evaluation Model (URITEM 2022); International Workshop on Urban Space and Mobilities (USAM 2022); Virtual and Augmented Reality and Applications (VRA 2022); Advanced and Computational Methods for Earth Science Applications (WACM4ES 2022); Advanced Mathematics and Computing Methods in Complex Computational Systems (WAMCM 2022).
Download or read book Research Activities of the IMF January 1991 December 1999 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-01-01 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research activity in the IMF emphasizes the links between the organization's policy and operational concerns. The main objectives of research is IMF staff understanding of policy and operational issues relevant to the institution, and to improve the analytical quality of the work prepared for management and the Executive Board and the advice provided to member countries. The scope of research in the IMF is defined by the purposes and functions of the institution. In order to foster innovation and ensure quality control, the IMF makes much of its research available outside the institution and encourages staff to interact with academia and other research organizations through conferences, seminars, and occasional joint research projects. The visiting scholar’s program has also enhanced the quality of research done in the IMF. This program brings in leading members of the economics profession from around the world to assist in the preparation of papers for the Executive Board and to conduct research on IMF-related issues.
Download or read book Implications of a Surge in Capital Inflows written by Jang-Yung Lee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-05-01 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper seeks to extend discussion of monetary policy instruments to the situation of a country faced with major capital inflows when the process of domestic financial liberalization is incomplete. It briefly summarizes the recent usage of traditional monetary instruments, discusses the practical limits to classic sterilization measures as well as the pros and cons of using other supplementary measures including tax-based controls on capital inflows. It also examines the efficacy of such measures in Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Korea, Spain, and Thailand. The conclusion is that, for a time and as a transitional measure, a country may find it opportune to supplement the traditional instruments with certain “belt and braces” measures including, in some instances, indirect (tax-based) capital controls.
Download or read book Research Activities of the IMF January 1991 December 1998 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-09-24 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A selective index of major research papers prepared by IMF staff in 1991-98.
Download or read book Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-09-01 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico, and Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates and have prompted researchers to undertake new theoretical and empirical analysis of these events. This paper provides some perspective on this work and relates it to earlier research. It derives the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and proposes a common framework for analyzing currency crises. This framework stresses the important role of speculators and recognizes that the government’s commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. The final section finds that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Currency Crises written by Graciela Laura Kaminsky and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-07-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Currency Crises written by Müge Ant and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2002 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Insurance and Liquidity written by Rashmi Shankar and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: "The author presents evidence that balance sheet effects are critical determinants of both the likelihood of a crisis and of income losses following a crisis. She tests the validity of "insurance" and "liquidity" models of currency crisis. Both models predict that the occurrence of a balance of payments crisis is conditional on the health of the nation's accounts in relation to the rest of the world. Problems in the balance sheet either cause a financial crisis that develops into a run on the central bank, or generate a run on the central bank once contingent liabilities exceed reserves and the yield differential moves against domestic assets. Estimations of crisis likelihoods based on several specifications of single and simultaneous equation probit models confirm that output losses following the crisis are persistent and conditional on the balance sheet indicator, that is, the ratio of the stock of gross external liabilities to assets. Measures of contingent liabilities, capital flight, and financial depth perform well as crisis predictors, and the marginal effects on the probability of a crisis are of the expected sign. The panel data set covers the time period 1973 through 2003 for 90 countries."--World Bank web site.
Download or read book The Collapse of Exchange Rate Regimes written by George S. Tavlas and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ical) and to self-fulfilling currency crisis, respectively. Research stressing the former approach was pioneered by Krugman (1979) and Flood and Garber (1984). According to this line of research, the failure of governments to adopt domestic monetary and fiscal policies consistent with their stated exchange rate targets leads to a gradual diminution of reserves and eventually a stock adjustment that depletes reserves suddenly in one attack (Sachs, Tornell, and Velasco, 1996, page 47). The result is either a devaluation of the exchange rate or a switch to floating. Subsequent work of this genre has specified a number of other channels, in addition to that involving inconsistent and unsustainable monetary and fiscal policies, that can precipitate an attack: 1. Inconsistency between external and internal objectives. The stances of monetary and fiscal policies may be consistent with the authorities' exchange rate target, but domestic economic indicators (such as the unemployment rate) may be inconsistent with internal balance, resulting in pressures on the authorities to relax macroeconomic policies. Private agents, aware of this inconsistency, perceive an opportunity for profits from a currency devaluation and precipitate an attack. 2. Contagion effects. Prior to an attack on another currency (say that of country B), the market may view a country's (say, country A's) exchange rate as consistent with economic fundamentals and, thus, sustainable.
Download or read book Second Thoughts on Second Moments written by Arturo J. Galindo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: June 1998 The evidence is broadly supportive of an asset view of speculative attacks and the importance of the variance of monetary aggregates in predicting currency crises, but it cast some doubt on existing theories. The literature on speculative attacks has been given new impetus by the collapse of the European currency arrangements beginning in 1992, by the Mexican peso crisis and after-effects in 1994, and most recently by speculative attacks across Asia. One strand of this literature stresses the importance of imbalances in stocks of monetary and financial aggregates rather than traditional flow factors, arguing that massive, volatile capital flows have become a dominant feature of the global landscape, and that exchange-rate levels and current accounts have not proved convincing as proximate causes of crises. Galindo and Maloney test two popular asset-based models of speculative attacks-Krugman and Rotemberg (1992) and Calvo and Mendoza (1995)-especially their emphasis on the second moments of monetary aggregates. Analyzing monthly panels of appropriate countries in three regions, they find evidence for the importance of money/reserve ratios predicted by both models, and their variance as predicted by Calvo and Mendoza. But the variance of velocity does not appear to be important, casting some doubt on the Krugman-Rotemberg target zone framework and the interpretation of the Calvo-Mendoza results. This paper-a product of the Poverty and Economic Management Unit of the Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to understand the determinants of macroeconomic instability. William Maloney may be contacted at [email protected].
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-01-01 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a critical survey of the literature on politico-institutional determinants of the government budget. We organize our discussion around two questions: Why did certain OECD countries, but not others, accumulate large public debts? Why did these fiscal imbalances appear in the last twenty years rather than sooner? We begin by discussing the “tax smoothing” model and conclude that this approach alone cannot provide complete answers to these questions. We then proceed to a discussion of political economy models, which we organize into six groups: (1) models based upon opportunistic policy makers and naive voters with “fiscal illusion”; (2) models of intergenerational redistributions; (3) models of debt as a strategic variable, linking the current government with the next one; (4) models of coalition governments; (5) models of geographically dispersed interests; and (6) models emphasizing the effects of budgetary institutions. We conclude by briefly discussing policy implications.
Download or read book Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs written by Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
