Download or read book Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23 written by Myung-Hee Y. Kim and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.
Download or read book Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23 written by National Aeronautics and Space Adm Nasa and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available. Kim, Myung-Hee Y. and Wilson, John W. Langley Research Center NASA/TP-2000-210536, L-18020, NAS 1.60:210536
Download or read book Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23 Nasa written by United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration and published by . This book was released on 2003* with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Maodel and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23 written by Myung-Hee Y. Kim and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles written by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2018-08-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23. Because a fundamental understanding of the transition from cycle to cycle has not been developed, at this time it is assumed for projection purposes that solar cycle 24 will continue at the same activity level in the declining phase of cycle 23. Projection errors in solar cycle 24 can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.Kim, Myung-Hee Y. and Wilson, John W. and Cucinotta, Francis A.Johnson Space Center; Langley Research CenterMATHEMATICAL MODELS; SUNSPOT CYCLE; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; SOLAR CYCLES; SOLAR PHYSICS; RADIATION DOSAGE; RADIATION EFFECTS; RADIATION ABSORPTION; SUN...
Download or read book On Solar Cycle Predictions and Reconstructions written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Generally, there are two procedures for solar cycle predictions: the empirical methods - statistical methods based on extrapolations and precursor methods - and methods based on dynamo models. Aims. The goal of the present analysis is to forecast the strength and epochs of the next solar cycle, to investigate proxies for grand solar minima and to reconstruct the relative sunspot number in the Maunder minimum. Methods. We calculate the asymmetry of the ascending and descending solar cycle phases (Method 1) and use this parameter as a prow for solar activity on longer time scales. Further, we correlate the relative sunspot numbers in the epochs of solar activity minima and maxima (Method 2) and estimate the parameters of an autoregressive moving average model (ARMA, Method 3). Finally, the power spectrum of data obtained with the Method 1 is analysed and the Methods 1 and 3 are combined. Results. Signatures of the Maunder. Dalton and Gleissberg minima were found with Method 1. A period of about 70 years, somewhat shorter than the Gleissberg period was identified in the asymmetry data. The maximal smoothed monthly sunspot number during the Maunder minimum was reconstructed and found to be in the range 0-35 (Method 1). The estimated Wolf number (also called the relative sunspot number) of the next solar maximum is in the range 88-102 (Method 2). Method 3 predicts the next solar maximum between 2011 and 2012 and the next solar minimum for 2017. Also, it forecasts the relative sunspot number in the next maximum to be 90 +/- 27. A combination of the Methods 1 and 3 gives for the next solar maximum relative sunspot numbers between 78 and 99. Conclusions. The asymmetry parameter provided by Method 1 is a good proxy for solar activity in the past, also in the periods for which no relative sunspot numbers are available. Our prediction for the next solar cycle No. 24 is that it will be weaker than the last cycle, No. 23. This prediction is based on various independent methods.
Download or read book The Solar Dynamics Observatory written by Phillip Chamberlin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-05-05 with total page 405 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is dedicated to the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which was launched 11 February 2010. The articles focus on the spacecraft and its instruments: the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE), and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). Articles within also describe calibration results and data processing pipelines that are critical to understanding the data and products, concluding with a description of the successful Education and Public Outreach activities. This book is geared towards anyone interested in using the unprecedented data from SDO, whether for fundamental heliophysics research, space weather modeling and forecasting, or educational purposes. Previously published in Solar Physics journal, Vol. 275/1-2, 2012. Selected articles in this book are published open access under a CC BY-NC 2.5 license at link.springer.com. For further details, please see the license information in the chapters.
Download or read book On Determining the Rise Size and Duration Classes of a Sunspot Cycle written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles written by Myung-Hee Y. Kim and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23.
Download or read book Solar terrestrial Predictions Proceedings Prediction group reports written by Richard Frank Donnelly and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On the Correlation Between Maximum Amplitude and Smoothed Monthly Mean Sunspot Number During the Rise of the Cycle from T written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Solar Cycle Variation and Application to the Space Radiation Environment written by John W. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Past and Present Variability of the Solar terrestrial System written by Giuliana Cini Castagnoli and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global climate of the Earth has significantly varied over the last millennia. On a regional scale, the climate has varied and does presently vary on many different time scales, leading to a continuously changing pattern of temperatures, humidity, precipitation, with important effects on the whole terrestrial biosphere. Physicist are interested in understanding the mechanism at work by gathering data and properly analysing them, by building theoretical models and, if possible, making predictions on the future evolution of the system. Along these lines, an important question is to understand the role of the solar forcing, in order to unravel the internal mechanisms of variability of the Earth's climate from the variable forcing of the Sun. On the other hand, one can learn about the past solar variability by reading into the terrestrial archives that provide us with proxy data on the history of both the Sun and the climate. Thus, realizing that the Sun and the Earth form a closely coupled system, where the variable properties of the former may affect in many subtle ways the behaviour of the latter, is an important step toward the understanding of both.This book is explicitly devoted to these issues. First, it is important to obtain reliable data from terrestrial archives, and to properly date the records that have been measured. The first part of the book is devoted to these crucial aspects, dealing with various types of proxy data and with the difficult issue of the dating of the records. Once obtained, the data has to be interpreted. This process nowadays relies upon a plethora of data analysis methods that explicitly take into account the nonlinear nature of the system and try to elucidate the dynamics and the main processes active in the measured system. The second part of the book is devoted to the issue of data analysis and prediction. Finally, once the data has been interpreted and analyzed, theoretical models have to be built describing the dynamics of the system considered. Due to the extreme complexity of the Sun/Earth system (as well as of its components, the Sun itself and the Earth's climate), drastic simplifications in the modelling efforts have to be accepted and one has to bear in mind that the models probably are nothing more than a pale image of the real dynamics. The third part of the book is devoted to the theoretical and numerical modelling of the solar and climatic variability, and of their complex interactions. This volume gives an up-to-date view of the present state of this field.
Download or read book Solar Activity Prediction written by and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.
Download or read book Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting written by Douglas C. Montgomery and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-04-21 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the First Edition "...[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics." -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts. Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both popular and modern time series methodologies as well as an introduction to Bayesian methods in forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition also includes: Over 300 exercises from diverse disciplines including health care, environmental studies, engineering, and finance More than 50 programming algorithms using JMP®, SAS®, and R that illustrate the theory and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data New material on frequency domain and spatial temporal data analysis Expanded coverage of the variogram and spectrum with applications as well as transfer and intervention model functions A supplementary website featuring PowerPoint® slides, data sets, and select solutions to the problems Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition is an ideal textbook upper-undergraduate and graduate-levels courses in forecasting and time series. The book is also an excellent reference for practitioners and researchers who need to model and analyze time series data to generate forecasts.
Download or read book Panel Achieves Consensus Prediction of Solar Cycle 23 written by JoAnn Joselyn and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Earth affecting Solar Transients written by Jie Zhang and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-10-27 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Earth-affecting solar transients encompass a broad range of phenomena, including major solar flares, CMEs, ICMEs, solar energetic particle events, and corotating interaction regions. In the past decade, nearly continuous observations of the Sun and the inner heliosphere with an unprecedented wide spatial coverage from a fleet of spacecraft, including STEREO Ahead/Behind, SDO, SOHO, Messenger, Venus Express, ACE and WIND, in combination with a significant advancement of global MHD numerical simulation and theoretical analysis, have greatly improved our understanding of solar transients and the prediction of their potential impact on Earth. This Topical Collection is based on the International Study of Earth-affecting Solar Transients (ISEST) project, initially launched in 2013 to bring together scientists from many countries to join efforts on studying solar transients. ISEST became one of the four research projects of the Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact (VarSITI) program, sponsored by the Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP) for the period of 2014 – 2018. Originally published in the journal Solar Physics, volumes 292 (2017) and 293 (2018).
