Download or read book European Commission s Forecasts Accuracy Revisited written by Marco Fioramanti and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book European Commission s Forecasts Accuracy Revisited written by Marco Fioramanti and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper updates a previous assessment of the European Commission's track record for forecasting key economic variables (González Cabanillas and Terzi 2012) by extending the observation period to 2014. It also examines the accuracy of the Commission's forecasts over a shorter and more recent period (2000-2014) so that a comparison can be made between the performance of forecasts made before and after the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Going beyond the 2012 approach, this paper also examines the extent to which forecast errors can be explained by external or technical assumptions that prove incorrect ex post. It also updates the comparison of the Commission's performance vis à vis the OECD, the IMF, a consensus forecast of market economists, and the ECB. Inclusion of the 2012-2014 period lowers the forecasting error for some key variables or leads to no change in others.^Focussing on the years since the turn of the century, current-year and year-ahead forecasting errors for the three main variables examined (GDP growth, inflation and general government balances) have been larger in the crisis and post-crisis period (2008-2014) than in the precrisis period (2000-2007) for a large majority of Member States. This appears mainly to be the result of an anomalously large error in 2009, a year which confounded many forecasters. The country-by-country analysis confirms the finding of earlier studies which show that the Commission's forecasts are largely unbiased. The newly-introduced panel data approach also confirms the absence of bias in current-year GDP forecasts across EU Member States but shows that year-ahead forecasts for GDP growth tend to be slightly over optimistic across the whole sample. The analysis also shows that autocorrelation of forecast errors is not a major issue in the Commission's forecasts.^Other advanced tests shed more light on the performance of the Commission's forecasts, demonstrating that they are directionally accurate and generally beat a naïve forecast but that they are not always efficient in terms of their use of all available data. The decomposition of forecast errors shows that unexpected changes in external assumptions seem to have only a limited impact on current-year GDP growth forecasts. However, more than half of the variance in year-ahead forecast errors appears to come from external assumptions that prove to be incorrect ex post. Finally, the Commission's economic forecasts come out as being more accurate than those of the market and comparable to those of the other international institutions considered.
Download or read book The Relative Importance of Forecast Accuracy Determinants Revisited written by Alain Coen and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze earnings forecasting errors made by financial analysts for 18 European countries over the 1995-2006 period. We use the Heston-Rouwenhorst approach to unravel country-, industry-, and firm-specific effects as a source of variation in financial analysts' earnings forecast errors. We first estimate each effect with a dummy variable regression, and then decompose the variance of forecast errors into different effects. We provide evidence that the differences among countries, industrial sectors, or analyst following offer a weak explanation for differences in forecast errors. Country effects however largely dominate industry and analyst following effects on European stock markets. By contrast, the type of earnings - profits or losses - and variations in earnings - increases or decreases - play a significant role in the performance of financial analysts.
Download or read book The Accuracy of the European Commission s Forecasts Re examined written by Laura González Cabanillas and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper analyses the Commission's forecast track record, by building on previous analyses. The extension of the observation period to 2011 allows a first analysis of forecast accuracy during the years of the economic and financial crisis. Over the full timespan, forecasts for the EU and euro area are found to be generally unbiased. The same holds true for the outlook for most Member States, largely confirming earlier results. Moreover, the Commission services track record appears generally in line with that of the OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics, and in some cases better. Finally, while the analysis points to a limited impact of the crisis on the accuracy of the Commission's current-year forecasts, a significant deterioration of the accuracy of year-ahead projections is found. This applies in particular for the forecasts of GDP, investment, inflation and the government budget balance, due mainly to larger forecast errors in the recession year 2009, which by all standards proved exceptional and unanticipated by institutional and market forecasters."--Document home page.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting in the European Commission written by Hannu Jokinen and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Track Record of the Commission Forecasts written by Filip Keereman and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: El registro de datos de los pronósticos de la Comisión. -Los pronósticos en la Comisión Europea.- Variables y datos.- Método y panorámica.- Características básicas de los datos de muestra.- Características básicas de los errores de pronóstico.- Persistencia de errores de pronóstico.- Imparcialidad.- Eficiencia.- Exactitud a través del tiempo.- Exactitud direccional.- Reconocimiento de ciclos.- Revisión de los pronósticos a través del ciclo.- El contexto internacional.- La interdependencia de los errores de pronóstico.- La susceptibilidad de los errores de pronóstico a un conjunto alternativo de datos de realización.- Comparación con pronósticos externos.
Download or read book Revisiting Electricity Market Reforms written by Han Phoumin and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-09-19 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book combines the fundamentals of industrial organization theories based on microeconomic foundations, applied econometrics and environmental and natural resource economics in undertaking a comprehensive review of reforms of the power sector and its impact on industrial and socio-economic performance. The book provides the reader with the intellectual groundwork necessary for understanding the workings and interactions of today’s reforming power markets such as in the ASEAN and East Asia that are striving to achieve the energy policy trilemma of affordability, energy sustainability and energy security. The topics addressed in this book include application of welfare theorems such as competition in and for the market in the electricity sector, market failures such as lack of electricity access, analysis of forecasting models under volatility, energy resource allocation such as renewable energy and competitive market designs of energy markets. Country-specific and region-specific case studies are used to analyze the progress and outcomes of market-driven electricity reforms across the reforming and advanced electricity markets. Therefore, the book derives policy lessons and provides policy recommendations in reforming power markets for the ASEAN and East Asia taking stock of more than three decades of global experience with power sector reforms. The electricity markets case studies are carefully chosen and supported by extensive data analyses as appropriate. This book on energy economics and policy is highly recommended to readers who seek an in-depth and up-to-date integrated overview about the evolving literature and status on electricity market reforms with a particular reference to Asia.
Download or read book Revisiting the European Union as Empire written by Hartmut Behr and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-06-26 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The European Union’s stalled expansion, the Euro deficit and emerging crises of economic and political sovereignty in Greece, Italy and Spain have significantly altered the image of the EU as a model of progressive civilization. However, despite recent events the EU maintains its international image as the paragon of European politics and global governance. This book unites leading scholars on Europe and Empire to revisit the view of the European Union as an ‘imperial’ power. It offers a re-appraisal of the EU as empire in response to geopolitical and economic developments since 2007 and asks if the policies, practices, and priorities of the Union exhibit characteristics of a modern empire. This text will be of key interest to students and scholars of the EU, European studies, history, sociology, international relations, and economics.
Download or read book The Track Record of the Commission s Forecast written by A. Melander and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book External Assumptions the International Environment and the Track Record of the Commission Forecasts written by Filip Keereman and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While in the Commission Forecasts interest rates, exchange rates or oil prices are treated more like assumptions, it is interesting to test their realism. It appears that these variables are formulated in a reasonably accurate way and that in general alternative assumptions would not improve the picture.
Download or read book Classification and Data Analysis written by Krzysztof Jajuga and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-28 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume gathers peer-reviewed contributions on data analysis, classification and related areas presented at the 28th Conference of the Section on Classification and Data Analysis of the Polish Statistical Association, SKAD 2019, held in Szczecin, Poland, on September 18–20, 2019. Providing a balance between theoretical and methodological contributions and empirical papers, it covers a broad variety of topics, ranging from multivariate data analysis, classification and regression, symbolic (and other) data analysis, visualization, data mining, and computer methods to composite measures, and numerous applications of data analysis methods in economics, finance and other social sciences. The book is intended for a wide audience, including researchers at universities and research institutions, graduate and doctoral students, practitioners, data scientists and employees in public statistical institutions.
Download or read book NAFTA Revisited written by Gary Clyde Hufbauer and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2005-10-15 with total page 533 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NAFTA entered into force in 1994 after a bitter Congressional debate. But NAFTA in operation has proved no less controversial than NAFTA before ratification, for both supporters and opponents of trade liberalization have cited experience with the agreement to justify their positions. To provide a factual basis for this ongoing debate, the authors evaluate NAFTA's performance over the first seven years, comparing actual experience with both the objectives of the agreement's supporters and the charges of its critics. They then examine future challenges and opportunities in the trade and investment relationships among the three partner countries and the broader implications for new trade initiatives throughout the hemisphere.
Download or read book Economics and Politics Revisited written by Timothy Hellwig and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2023-08-17 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What drives government popularity? For decades, scholars, journalists, and political pundits alike have converged on a single answer: the economy. A rising economy lifts the popularity of the government, and if the economy's fortunes turn south, so too does that of the government. This conventional wisdom informs politicians' decisions as well as the scholarly commentary on parties and elections. Yet the conditions that underlie this model have changed in manycountries as globalization has shifted control away from national policymakers, as non-economic cultural issues have risen in importance, and as our politics have become more polarized. At the same time, since the Great Recession in 2008 persistent economic volatility has kept the economy on the agenda.What, then, fuels government popularity in our current volatile environment? Are political fortunes tied to economic stability, as in the past? Or has the economy-popularity link-the popularity function-been severed by a host of new and less predictable factors in post-industrial societies?To answer these questions, Economics and Politics Revisited uses data from the Executive Approval Project (EAP), a cross-nationally comparable data on leader popularity, to model the fundamental dynamics of government support in advanced industrial democracies. Eleven country-specific chapters, each written by experts in the politics of the country, examine the role of economic performance in generating leader support in each country. In all cases, chapter authors show that theeconomy matters for popularity. However, the economy-popularity link is stronger in some countries than others. Further, chapters leverage EAP series to highlight change over time. Pooled analyses extend these findings, highlighting how the public's responses to the economy are reduced when political campaignsshift to non-economic issues and when parties are polarization on non-economic issues. Collectively, the volume highlights how evolving issue agendas are changing the nature of political accountability in advanced industrialized democracies. While the economy remains important, the book calls on students of political accountability to give greater attention to the role of non-economic issues.Comparative Politics is a series for researchers, teachers, and students of political science that deals with contemporary government and politics. Global in scope, books in the series are characterized by a stress on comparative analysis and strong methodological rigour. The series is published in association with the European Consortium for Political Research. For more information visit: www.ecprnet.eu .The series is edited by Nicole Bolleyer, Chair of Comparative Political Science, Geschwister Scholl Institut, LMU Munich and Jonathan Slapin, Professor of Political Institutions and European Politics, Department of Political Science, University of Zurich.
Download or read book Evaluating Medium Term Forecasting Methods and Their Implications for EU Output Gap Calculations written by and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper sheds light on two specific, but interlinked, questions - firstly, how do the EU's, medium term actual GDP growth rate forecasts compare, in terms of accuracy and biasedness, with those of the EU's Member States, in their annual Stability and Convergence Programme (SCP) updates; and secondly, should medium term forecasts be allowed to influence the short run output gap and structural balance calculations used in the EU's fiscal surveillance procedures. Regarding the first question, the paper concludes that the EU's medium term forecasts are equally as good, and arguably better, than those of the SCP's both with respect to accuracy and biasedness. Regarding the second question, due to the relatively rapid loss in forecast accuracy as the time horizon lengthens; the paper suggests that using more forecast information should be avoided in the output gap and structural balance calculations. Extending the forecast horizon to be used in the output gap calculations could exacerbate an existing optimistic bias with respect to the supply side health of the EU's economy, thereby enlarging the risk of procyclicality problems, especially in the upswing phase of cycles, where most of the large fiscal policy errors tend to occur.
Download or read book Experimental and Quantitative Methods in Contemporary Economics written by Kesra Nermend and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-10-12 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contemporary economists, when analyzing economic behavior of people, need to use the diversity of research methods and modern ways of discovering knowledge. The increasing popularity of using economic experiments requires the use of IT tools and quantitative methods that facilitate the analysis of the research material obtained as a result of the experiments and the formulation of correct conclusions. This proceedings volume presents problems in contemporary economics and provides innovative solutions using a range of quantitative and experimental tools. Featuring selected contributions presented at the 2018 Computational Methods in Experimental Economics Conference (CMEE 2018), this book provides a modern economic perspective on such important issues as: sustainable development, consumption, production, national wealth, the silver economy, behavioral finance, economic and non-economic factors determining the behavior of household members, consumer preferences, social campaigns, and neuromarketing. International case studies are also offered.
Download or read book Forecasts in Times of Crises written by Theo S. Eicher and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-09 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF’s Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias, efficiency, and information content to find that IMF forecasts add substantial informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of nominal GDP, public investment, private investment, the current account, net transfers, and government expenditures) exhibit significant forecast bias. Forecasts for low-income countries are the main drivers of forecast bias and inefficiency, reflecting perhaps larger shocks and lower data quality. When we decompose the forecast errors into their sources, we find that forecast errors for private consumption growth are the key contributor to GDP growth forecast errors. Similarly, forecast errors for non-interest expenditure growth and tax revenue growth are crucial determinants of the forecast errors in the growth of fiscal budgets. Forecast errors for balance of payments growth are significantly influenced by forecast errors in goods import growth. The results highlight which macroeconomic aggregates require further attention in future forecast models for countries in crises.
Download or read book Revisiting Targeting in Social Assistance written by Margaret Grosh and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2022-06-14 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Targeting is a commonly used, but much debated, policy tool within global social assistance practice. Revisiting Targeting in Social Assistance: A New Look at Old Dilemmas examines the well-known dilemmas in light of the growing body of experience, new implementation capacities, and the potential to bring new data and data science to bear. The book begins by considering why or whether or how narrowly or broadly to target different parts of social assistance and updates the global empirics around the outcomes and costs of targeting. It illustrates the choices that must be made in moving from an abstract vision to implementable definitions and procedures, and in deciding how the choices should be informed by values, empirics, and context. The importance of delivery systems and processes to distributional outcomes are emphasized, and many facets with room for improvement are discussed. The book also explores the choices between targeting methods and how differences in purposes and contexts shape those. The know-how with respect to the data and inference used by the different household-specific targeting methods is summarized and comprehensively updated, including a focus on “big data†? and machine learning. A primer on measurement issues is included. Key findings include the following: · Targeting selected categories, families, or individuals plays a valuable role within the framework of universal social protection. · Measuring the accuracy and cost of targeting can be done in many ways, and judicious choices require a range of metrics. · Weighing the relatively low costs of targeting against the potential gains is important. · Implementing inclusive delivery systems is critical for reducing errors of exclusion and inclusion. · Selecting and customizing the appropriate targeting method depends on purpose and context; there is no method preferred in all circumstances. · Leveraging advances in technology—ICT, big data, artificial intelligence, machine learning—can improve targeting accuracy, but they are not a panacea; better data matters more than sophistication in inference. · Targeting social protection should be a dynamic process.
