Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-15 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium A Contextual Literature Review written by Laurence B. Siegel and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2017-12-08 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research into the equity risk premium, often considered the most important number in finance, falls into three broad groupings. First, researchers have measured the margin by which equity total returns have exceeded fixed-income or cash returns over long historical periods and have projected this measure of the equity risk premium into the future. Second, the dividend discount model—or a variant of it, such as an earnings discount model—is used to estimate the future return on an equity index, and the fixed-income or cash yield is then subtracted to arrive at an equity risk premium expectation or forecast. Third, academics have used macroeconomic techniques to estimate what premium investors might rationally require for taking the risk of equities. Current thinking emphasizes the second, or dividend discount, approach and projects an equity risk premium centered on 3½% to 4%.

Download or read book Contemporary Topics in Finance written by Iris Claus and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-02-27 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The literature surveys presented in this edited volume provide readers with up-to-date reviews on eleven contemporary topics in finance. Topics include unconventional monetary policy, implicit bank guarantees, and financial fraud - all linked to the exceptional event of the Global Financial Crisis Explores how recent studies on inflation risk premia and finance and productivity have benefitted from new empirical methods and the availability of relevant data Demonstrates how angel investing, venture capital, relationship lending and microfinance have benefitted from increased research as they have become more seasoned Investigates crowdfunding and crypto-currencies which have both arisen from recent technological developments

Download or read book A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-15 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-16 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.

Download or read book Risk and Return for Regulated Industries written by Bente Villadsen and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2017-04-27 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk and Return for Regulated Industries provides a much-needed, comprehensive review of how cost of capital risk arises and can be measured, how the special risks regulated industries face affect fair return, and the challenges that regulated industries are likely to face in the future. Rather than following the trend of broad industry introductions or textbook style reviews of utility finance, it covers the topics of most interest to regulators, regulated companies, regulatory lawyers, and rate-of-return analysts in all countries. Accordingly, the book also includes case studies about various countries and discussions of the lessons international regulatory procedures can offer. - Presents a unified treatment of the regulatory principles and practices used to assess the required return on capital - Addresses current practices before exploring the ways methods play out in practice, including irregularities, shortcomings, and concerns for the future - Focuses on developed economies instead of providing a comprehensive global reviews - Foreword by Stewart C. Myers

Download or read book Handbook of Inflation Indexed Bonds written by John Brynjolfsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1999-02-15 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Inflation Indexed Bonds provides complete coverage of inflation protection bonds beginning with their first U.S. issuance in 1997. Five, in-depth sections detail: strategic asset allocation; mechanics, valuation, and risk monitoring; global environment; issuers; and investors.

Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates written by Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-09-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.

Download or read book Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Fall 2018 written by Janice Eberly and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2019-08-27 with total page 597 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents: The European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy during Its First 20 Years, Philipp Hartmann and Frank Smets Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia, Emmanuel Farhi and François Gourio The Real Effects of Disrupted Credit: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis, Ben S. Bernanke The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output, Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Mauricio Ulate Should the Federal Reserve Regularly Evaluate Its Monetary Policy Framework?, Jeff Fuhrer, Giovanni P. Olivei, Eric S. Rosengren, and Geoffrey M.B. Tootell Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound: Less Potent? More International? More Sticky?, Kristin Forbes The Efficacy of Large-Scale Asset Purchases When the Short-Term Interest Rate Is at Its Effective Lower Bound, James D. Hamilton The Federal Reserve Is Not Very Constrained by the Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates, Eric T. Swanson Comments on Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound, Janet Yellen

Download or read book Handbook of Fixed Income Securities written by Pietro Veronesi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-03-23 with total page 1036 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive guide to the current theories and methodologies intrinsic to fixed-income securities Written by well-known experts from a cross section of academia and finance, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities features a compilation of the most up-to-date fixed-income securities techniques and methods. The book presents crucial topics of fixed income in an accessible and logical format. Emphasizing empirical research and real-life applications, the book explores a wide range of topics from the risk and return of fixed-income investments, to the impact of monetary policy on interest rates, to the post-crisis new regulatory landscape. Well organized to cover critical topics in fixed income, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is divided into eight main sections that feature: • An introduction to fixed-income markets such as Treasury bonds, inflation-protected securities, money markets, mortgage-backed securities, and the basic analytics that characterize them • Monetary policy and fixed-income markets, which highlight the recent empirical evidence on the central banks’ influence on interest rates, including the recent quantitative easing experiments • Interest rate risk measurement and management with a special focus on the most recent techniques and methodologies for asset-liability management under regulatory constraints • The predictability of bond returns with a critical discussion of the empirical evidence on time-varying bond risk premia, both in the United States and abroad, and their sources, such as liquidity and volatility • Advanced topics, with a focus on the most recent research on term structure models and econometrics, the dynamics of bond illiquidity, and the puzzling dynamics of stocks and bonds • Derivatives markets, including a detailed discussion of the new regulatory landscape after the financial crisis and an introduction to no-arbitrage derivatives pricing • Further topics on derivatives pricing that cover modern valuation techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulations, volatility surfaces, and no-arbitrage pricing with regulatory constraints • Corporate and sovereign bonds with a detailed discussion of the tools required to analyze default risk, the relevant empirical evidence, and a special focus on the recent sovereign crises A complete reference for practitioners in the fields of finance, business, applied statistics, econometrics, and engineering, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is also a useful supplementary textbook for graduate and MBA-level courses on fixed-income securities, risk management, volatility, bonds, derivatives, and financial markets. Pietro Veronesi, PhD, is Roman Family Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he teaches Masters and PhD-level courses in fixed income, risk management, and asset pricing. Published in leading academic journals and honored by numerous awards, his research focuses on stock and bond valuation, return predictability, bubbles and crashes, and the relation between asset prices and government policies.

Download or read book Investment Mathematics written by Andrew T. Adams and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-07-01 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investment Mathematics provides an introductory analysis of investments from a quantitative viewpoint, drawing together many of the tools and techniques required by investment professionals. Using these techniques, the authors provide simple analyses of a number of securities including fixed interest bonds, equities, index-linked bonds, foreign currency and derivatives. The book concludes with coverage of other applications, including modern portfolio theory, portfolio performance measurement and stochastic investment models.

Download or read book China s Equity Risk Premium written by Nano Kurzmann and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2010-12 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2008 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1,3, University of Birmingham (Department of Economics), language: English, abstract: Despite the great fall of the Shanghai Stock exchange since the beginning of the year 2008, Chinese equities have performed unimaginably during their young history of existence. This paper aims to answer the question whether these returns are sustainable. The equity risk premium probably provides the most powerful tool to do so. Thus, several techniques are presented to estimate its magnitude. It turns out that some techniques are less and others more suitable in an environment of an emerging country. This paper accumulates evidence that investors must be prepared to receive a much lower reward for their investments.

Download or read book Modern Actuarial Theory and Practice written by Philip Booth and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-12-16 with total page 840 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years since the publication of the best-selling first edition, the incorporation of ideas and theories from the rapidly growing field of financial economics has precipitated considerable development of thinking in the actuarial profession. Modern Actuarial Theory and Practice, Second Edition integrates those changes and presents an up-to-date, comprehensive overview of UK and international actuarial theory, practice and modeling. It describes all of the traditional areas of actuarial activity, but in a manner that highlights the fundamental principles of actuarial theory and practice as well as their economic, financial, and statistical foundations.