Download or read book Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models with Diagnostics written by A. Ronald Gallant and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) is used to fit the standard stochastic volatility model and various extensions to several daily financial time series. EMM matches to the score of a model determined by data analysis called the score generator. Discrepancies reveal characteristics of data that stochastic volatility models cannot approximate. The two score generators employed here are "Semiparametric ARCH" and "Nonlinear Nonparametric". With the first, the standard model is rejected, although some extensions are accepted. With the second, all versions are rejected. The extensions required for an adequate fit are so elaborate that nonparametric specifications are probably more convenient.

Download or read book Univariate and Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models written by Roman Liesenfeld and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach based upon an Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS) procedure is used to estimate several extensions of the standard Stochastic Volatility (SV) model for daily financial return series. EIS provides a highly generic procedure for a very accurate Monte Carlo evaluation of the marginal likelihood which depends upon high-dimensional interdependent integrals. Extensions of the standard SV model being analyzed only require minor modifications in the ML-EIS procedure. Furthermore, EIS can also be applied for filtering which provides the basis for several diagnostic tests. Our empirical analysis indicates that extensions such as a semi-nonparametric specification of the error term distribution in the return equation dominate the standard SV model. Finally, we also apply the ML-EIS approach to a multivariate factor model with stochastic volatility.

Download or read book On Estimation Diagnostic Testing and Smoothing of Long Memory Stochastic Volatility Models written by Kai Li and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Volatility Models written by Jaya P. N. Bishwal and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-08-06 with total page 634 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops alternative methods to estimate the unknown parameters in stochastic volatility models, offering a new approach to test model accuracy. While there is ample research to document stochastic differential equation models driven by Brownian motion based on discrete observations of the underlying diffusion process, these traditional methods often fail to estimate the unknown parameters in the unobserved volatility processes. This text studies the second order rate of weak convergence to normality to obtain refined inference results like confidence interval, as well as nontraditional continuous time stochastic volatility models driven by fractional Levy processes. By incorporating jumps and long memory into the volatility process, these new methods will help better predict option pricing and stock market crash risk. Some simulation algorithms for numerical experiments are provided.

Download or read book Applied Quantitative Finance written by Wolfgang Karl Härdle and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-02 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides practical solutions and introduces recent theoretical developments in risk management, pricing of credit derivatives, quantification of volatility and copula modeling. This third edition is devoted to modern risk analysis based on quantitative methods and textual analytics to meet the current challenges in banking and finance. It includes 14 new contributions and presents a comprehensive, state-of-the-art treatment of cutting-edge methods and topics, such as collateralized debt obligations, the high-frequency analysis of market liquidity, and realized volatility. The book is divided into three parts: Part 1 revisits important market risk issues, while Part 2 introduces novel concepts in credit risk and its management along with updated quantitative methods. The third part discusses the dynamics of risk management and includes risk analysis of energy markets and for cryptocurrencies. Digital assets, such as blockchain-based currencies, have become popular b ut are theoretically challenging when based on conventional methods. Among others, it introduces a modern text-mining method called dynamic topic modeling in detail and applies it to the message board of Bitcoins. The unique synthesis of theory and practice supported by computational tools is reflected not only in the selection of topics, but also in the fine balance of scientific contributions on practical implementation and theoretical concepts. This link between theory and practice offers theoreticians insights into considerations of applicability and, vice versa, provides practitioners convenient access to new techniques in quantitative finance. Hence the book will appeal both to researchers, including master and PhD students, and practitioners, such as financial engineers. The results presented in the book are fully reproducible and all quantlets needed for calculations are provided on an accompanying website. The Quantlet platform quantlet.de, quantlet.com, quantlet.org is an integrated QuantNet environment consisting of different types of statistics-related documents and program codes. Its goal is to promote reproducibility and offer a platform for sharing validated knowledge native to the social web. QuantNet and the corresponding Data-Driven Documents-based visualization allows readers to reproduce the tables, pictures and calculations inside this Springer book.

Download or read book Bugs for a Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models written by Renate Meyer and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the general Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in stochastic volatility models with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. The main purpose is to illustrate the ease with which the Bayesian stochastic volatility model can now be studied routinely via BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling), a recently developed, user-friendly, and freely available software package. It is an ideal software tool for the exploratory phase of model building as any modifications of a model including changes of priors and sampling error distributions are readily realized with only minor changes of the code. BUGS automates the calculation of the full conditional posterior distributions using a model representation by directed acyclic graphs. It contains an expert system for choosing an efficient sampling method for each full conditional. Furthermore, software for convergence diagnostics and statistical summaries is available for the BUGS output. The BUGS implementation of a stochastic volatility model is illustrated using a time series of daily Pound/Dollar exchange rates.

Download or read book Stochastic Volatility written by Neil Shephard and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2005 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic volatility is the main concept used in the fields of financial economics and mathematical finance to deal with time-varying volatility in financial markets. This work brings together some of the main papers that have influenced this field, andshows that the development of this subject has been highly multidisciplinary.

Download or read book Simulation and Parameter Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Comparing Estimation Procedures for Stochastic Volatility Models of Short Term Interest Rates written by Ramaprasad Bhar and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper compares the performance of three maximum likelihood estimation procedures -quasi-maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo likelihood and the particle filter to estimate stochastic volatility models of short term interest rates. The procedures are compared in an empirical study of interest rate volatility where a number of diagnostic tests in- and out-of-sample are utilized to evaluate both model specification and estimation procedure. Empirically, the results suggest interest rates follow the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model with stochastic volatility and that volatility increases after Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Overall, the Monte Carlo likelihood procedure provided the best results.

Download or read book Stochastic Volatility and Realized Stochastic Volatility Models written by Makoto Takahashi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-04-18 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This treatise delves into the latest advancements in stochastic volatility models, highlighting the utilization of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations for estimating model parameters and forecasting the volatility and quantiles of financial asset returns. The modeling of financial time series volatility constitutes a crucial aspect of finance, as it plays a vital role in predicting return distributions and managing risks. Among the various econometric models available, the stochastic volatility model has been a popular choice, particularly in comparison to other models, such as GARCH models, as it has demonstrated superior performance in previous empirical studies in terms of fit, forecasting volatility, and evaluating tail risk measures such as Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. The book also explores an extension of the basic stochastic volatility model, incorporating a skewed return error distribution and a realized volatility measurement equation. The concept of realized volatility, a newly established estimator of volatility using intraday returns data, is introduced, and a comprehensive description of the resulting realized stochastic volatility model is provided. The text contains a thorough explanation of several efficient sampling algorithms for latent log volatilities, as well as an illustration of parameter estimation and volatility prediction through empirical studies utilizing various asset return data, including the yen/US dollar exchange rate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nikkei 225 stock index. This publication is highly recommended for readers with an interest in the latest developments in stochastic volatility models and realized stochastic volatility models, particularly in regards to financial risk management.

Download or read book Estimation and identification in long memory stochastic volatility models written by Ana Perez Espartero and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Sensitivity Diagnostics and Adaptive Tuning of the Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model written by and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New methodologies for diagnostic analysis and adaptive tuning based on sensitivity information of the Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (MSV) model are established in this dissertation. The main focus is on obtaining optimal conditional volatilities from a time series set of financial data observed in the market by specifying a State-Space model with error covariance adaptive tuning of the MSV model. Variational Data Assimilation methods are used in this research as tools for obtaining the optimal a posteriori estimates of the multivariate series of volatilities. Calculus of Variations techniques are then applied to a forecast score function to derive the sensitivities of the forecasted volatilities in terms of the input parameters. In summary, this dissertation achieves the development of these new methodologies by (1) Developing the sensitivity information of the multivariate conditional volatilities to observations, covariance specifications and prior estimates, (2) Developing tools for assessing multivariate volatility forecasts. For each time period, sensitivity information provides forecasted volatility diagnostics of the MSV model to give guidance on model performance, and (3) Developing an adaptive tuning procedure based on the multivariate volatility sensitivity information to update the observation error covariance matrix during each assimilation with the main objective of providing improved results in an online manner. Applications of the new sensitivity diagnostics and adaptive tuning procedures of the MSV model are explored in two experiments. The first experiment is a proof-of-concept experiment where a multivariate series of volatilities is simulated through the specification of a MSV model and serves as a placeholder for true volatilities. In the second experiment, a time series set of Foreign Exchange (FX) rate data is used to estimate the MSV model to provide a time series of conditional volatility estimates of each FX rate.

Download or read book Simulation Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Type Models written by Christian Mücher and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Simulation Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model written by Giuseppe Maddaloni and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Range Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models written by Sassan Alizadeh and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose using the price range in the estimation of stochastic volatility models. We show theoretically, numerically, and empirically that the range is not only a highly efficient volatility proxy, but also that it is approximately Gaussian and robust to microstructure noise. The good properties of the range imply that range-based Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimation produces simple and highly efficient estimates of stochastic volatility models and extractions of latent volatility series. We use our method to examine the dynamics of daily exchange rate volatility and discover that traditional one-factor models are inadequate for describing simultaneously the high- and low-frequency dynamics of volatility. Instead, the evidence points strongly toward tw-factor models with one highly persistent factor and one quickly mean-reverting factor.

Download or read book Nonparametric Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models written by Steven Cannon Hogan and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modeling Stochastic Volatility with Application to Stock Returns written by Mr.Noureddine Krichene and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-06-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for three stock indices. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used for estimating Bayesian parameters and filtering volatilities. Volatility persistence being close to one was consistent with both volatility clustering and mean reversion. Filtering showed highly volatile markets, reflecting frequent pertinent news. Diagnostics showed no model failure, although specification improvements were always possible. The model corroborated stylized findings in volatility modeling and has potential value for market participants in asset pricing and risk management, as well as for policymakers in the design of macroeconomic policies conducive to less volatile financial markets.