Download or read book Estimation and out of sample Prediction of Sudden Stops written by Mr. Fabio Comelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-25 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We identify episodes of sudden stops in emerging economies and estimate the probability to observe them. Sudden stops are more likely when global growth falters, risk aversion in financial markets rises, and vulnerabilities in the external and financial sectors increase. However, the significance of the explanatory variables vary across regions. In Latin America and Eastern Europe, gross capital inflows are more responsive to changes in global growth than in Asia. Trade linkages tend to be more important than financial linkages in Eastern Europe, while in Asia and Latin America the opposite is true. The model captures only a third of sudden stops outside the estimation sample, but issues reliable sudden stop signals.

Download or read book Estimation and out of sample Prediction of Sudden Stops written by Mr.Fabio Comelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-25 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We identify episodes of sudden stops in emerging economies and estimate the probability to observe them. Sudden stops are more likely when global growth falters, risk aversion in financial markets rises, and vulnerabilities in the external and financial sectors increase. However, the significance of the explanatory variables vary across regions. In Latin America and Eastern Europe, gross capital inflows are more responsive to changes in global growth than in Asia. Trade linkages tend to be more important than financial linkages in Eastern Europe, while in Asia and Latin America the opposite is true. The model captures only a third of sudden stops outside the estimation sample, but issues reliable sudden stop signals.

Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin September 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-25 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The September 2015 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin covers a range of research topics. The Research Summaries featured in this issue are “Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States” (Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen) and “Economic Principles for Resource Revenue Management” (Anthony J. Venables and Samuel Wills). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financing for Development” (Amadou Sy) and the global development agenda. The issue also includes special announcements on the 2015 Annual Research Conference and the 2015 IMF Annual Report, as well as new IMF publications. Readers will also find a link to a top-viewed article from the “IMF Economic Review”—the IMF’s official research journal.

Download or read book IMF Staff Papers Volume 54 No 2 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-09-26 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vol. 54, No. 2 includes three notable contributions from the Seventh Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC) hosted by the IMF in November 2006. Its lead paper, by Olivier Blanchard of Harvard University, is the 2006 Mundell-Fleming Lecture (delivered at the ARC), which analyzes current-account deficits in the advanced economies. Other papers in this issue look at the relationship between international financial integration and the real economy. Other papers discuss whether (or not): i) the next capital account crisis can be predicted; ii) accepted definitions of debt crises are adequate; iii) the Doha Round of trade talks (if they are ever successfully completed) will lead to preference erosion; and finally iv) there is room for political opportunism in countries deciding between money-based or exchange-rate-based stabilization programs.

Download or read book How to Assess Country Risk written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-07 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF’s Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund’s broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The VE modeling toolkit is regularly updated in response to global economic developments and the latest modeling innovations. The new generation of VE models presented here leverages machine-learning algorithms. The models can better capture interactions between different parts of the economy and non-linear relationships that are not well measured in ”normal times.” The performance of machine-learning-based models is evaluated against more conventional models in a horse-race format. The paper also presents direct, transparent methods for communicating model results.

Download or read book Economic Policy Theory and Practice written by Agnes Benassy-Quere and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-11-07 with total page 800 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Policy provides a unique combination of facts-based analysis, state-of-the art economic theory, and insights from first-hand policy experience at the national and international levels to shed light on current domestic and international policy challenges. It is ideally suited for students, practitioners, and scholars seeking understanding both of the pragmatic constraints of real-world policy making and the analytical tools that enhance inquiry and inform debates. The authors draw on their experiences as academics and as policy makers in European and international institutions to offer a deep dive into the rationale, design, and implementation of economic policy across a range of policy domains: fiscal policy, monetary policy, international finance, financial stability, taxes, long-term growth and inequality. Highlighting the ways experience, theories, and institutions interact, each chapter starts with historical examples of dilemmas and shows how theoretical approaches can help policy makers understand what is at stake and identify solutions. The authors highlight the differences between the positive approach to economic policy (how do policies impact the economy), the normative approach (what should be policymakers' objectives and against which criteria should their action be judged), and the political-economy constraints (what are the limits and obstacles to public intervention). They rely on the most recent academic research, providing technical boxes while explaining the mechanisms in plain English in the text, with appropriate illustrations. This new edition is informed by such important recent developments as the Great Recession, the strains on the European Union and the Euro, the challenges of public and private debt, the successes and setbacks to emerging markets, changes to labor markets along with the increased attention to inequality, the debates on secular stagnation and its implications for conventional and unconventional monetary policy, the re-regulation of the financial sector, the debt overhang in both the public and the private sector.

Download or read book IMF Staff Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 798 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization written by and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2012-12-31 with total page 800 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp realities of financial globalization become clear during crises, when winners and losers emerge. Crises usher in short- and long-term changes to the status quo, and everyone agrees that learning from crises is a top priority. The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization devotes separate articles to specific crises, the conditions that cause them, and the longstanding arrangements devised to address them. While other books and journal articles treat these subjects in isolation, this volume presents a wide-ranging, consistent, yet varied specificity. Substantial, authoritative, and useful, these articles provide material unavailable elsewhere. Substantial articles by top scholars sets this volume apart from other information sources Rapidly developing subjects will interest readers well into the future Reader demand and lack of competitors underline the high value of these reference works

Download or read book Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops Or Less written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Openness to trade is one factor that has been identified as determining whether a country is prone to sudden stops in capital inflow, currency crashes, or severe recessions. Some believe that openness raises vulnerability to foreign shocks, while others believe that it makes adjustment to crises less painful. Several authors have offered empirical evidence that having a large tradable sector reduces the contraction necessary to adjust to a given cut-off in funding. This would help explain lower vulnerability to crises in Asia than in Latin America. Such studies may, however, be subject to the problem that trade is endogenous. We use the gravity instrument for trade openness, which is constructed from geographical determinants of bilateral trade. We find that openness indeed makes countries less vulnerable, both to severe sudden stops and currency crashes, and that the relationship is even stronger when correcting for the endogeneity of trade"--NBER website

Download or read book Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists written by and published by . This book was released on 1958-01 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.

Download or read book Sudden Stops and Currency Drops written by Luis Catão and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-05 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows that recent manifestations of sudden stops (SSs) in international capital flows have striking parallels in the early financial globalization era preceding World War I. All main capital-importing countries then faced episodic capital flow reversals averaging some 5 percent of GDP and with a median duration of four years. Most SSs also displayed striking crosscountry synchronization, being immediately preceded by rising world interest rates. Both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes were hit, with no significant differences between them. Yet, not all SSs resulted in currency drops: while some countries experienced currency collapses, others managed to preserve exchange rate stability. These different responses are related to domestic "frictions" that heightened the procyclicality of absorption and hindered precautionary reserve accumulation in some countries relative to others.

Download or read book Relative Price Volatility Under Sudden Stops written by Guillermo A. Calvo and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Sudden Stops are associated with increased volatility in relative prices. We introduce a model based on information acquisition to rationalize this increased volatility. An empirical analysis of the conditional variance of the wholesale price to consumer price ratio using panel ARCH techniques confirms the relevance of Sudden Stops and potential balance-sheet effects as key determinants of relative-price volatility, where balance-sheet effects are captured by the interaction of a proxy for potential changes in the real exchange rate (linked to the degree of external leverage of the absorption of tradable goods) and a measure of domestic liability dollarization"--NBER website

Download or read book Explaining the Real Exchange Rate During Sudden Stops and Tranquil Periods written by Akiko Terada-Hagiwara and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper untangles the causes behind real exchange rate devaluation events, with particular attention paid to the Sudden Stop of capital flows in the 1980s and 90s. Utilizing the cumulative impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, we argue that there is an asymmetric response across Sudden Stop and tranquil periods. Further comparison across the Sudden Stop in the 80s ("debt crisis") and that in the 90s ("Sudden Stop crisis"), however, reveals that the Sudden Stop disturbance is more prominent in explaining the real exchange rate disturbance in the Sudden Stop crisis of the 1990s than the debt crisis of the 1980s.

Download or read book Motion and Space Sickness written by George H. Crampton and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1990-01-17 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This compendium, written by active researchers in the field, encompasses topics ranging from anatomical and physiological subjects, through analyses of stimulus characteristics, prediction of sickness, and consideration of human factors, to pharmacological and behavioral therapeutic measures for terrestrial as well as microgravity travelers. Material often found scattered in diverse journals, paper-bound proceedings of symposia, difficult-to-find laboratory reports, or included with other topics in collections having a diffuse focus, are presented here in one volume dedicated to a single theme. The critical up-to-date- reviews are a first source for researchers and research program managers as well as an essential information source for engineers and practitioners.

Download or read book International Technical Conference on Experimental Safety Vehicles Thirteenth Proceedings Volume I written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 764 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Financial Crises and IMF Interventions written by Ilan Noy and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Estimation of the Time Since Death written by Burkhard Madea and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-09-08 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimation of the Time Since Death remains the foremost authoritative book on scientifically calculating the estimated time of death postmortem. Building on the success of previous editions which covered the early postmortem period, this new edition also covers the later postmortem period including putrefactive changes, entomology, and postmortem r