Download or read book Estimating the economic impacts of the first wave of COVID 19 in Pakistan using a SAM Multiplier Model written by Moeen, Muhammad Saad and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-02-13 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.

Download or read book Estimating the Economic Impacts of the First Wave of COVID 19 in Pakistan Using a SAM Multiplier Model written by Muhammad Saad Moeen and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book COVID 19 Estimating impact on the economy and poverty in Pakistan Using SAM Multiplier Model written by Moeen, Muhammad Saad and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-01-23 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.

Download or read book 2021 Global food policy report Transforming food systems after COVID 19 written by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-04-13 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The coronavirus pandemic has upended local, national, and global food systems, and put the Sustainable Development Goals further out of reach. But lessons from the world’s response to the pandemic can help address future shocks and contribute to food system change. In the 2021 Global Food Policy Report, IFPRI researchers and other food policy experts explore the impacts of the pandemic and government policy responses, particularly for the poor and disadvantaged, and consider what this means for transforming our food systems to be healthy, resilient, efficient, sustainable, and inclusive. Chapters in the report look at balancing health and economic policies, promoting healthy diets and nutrition, strengthening social protection policies and inclusion, integrating natural resource protection into food sector policies, and enhancing the contribution of the private sector. Regional sections look at the diverse experiences around the world, and a special section on finance looks at innovative ways of funding food system transformation. Critical questions addressed include: - Who felt the greatest impact from falling incomes and food system disruptions caused by the pandemic? - How can countries find an effective balance among health, economic, and social policies in the face of crisis? - How did lockdowns affect diet quality and quantity in rural and urban areas? - Do national social protection systems such as cash transfers have the capacity to protect poor and vulnerable groups in a global crisis? - Can better integration of agricultural and ecosystem polices help prevent the next pandemic? - How did companies accelerate ongoing trends in digitalization and integration to keep food supply chains moving? - What different challenges did the pandemic spark in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and how did these regions respond?

Download or read book Pakistan Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty written by Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-10-14 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing uncertainty, which in turn is fueling volatility in global commodity and financial markets. Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen sharply driven largely by this conflict and sanctions imposed on Russia. Export bans and disruptions in global trade and international supply chains have also contributed to rising prices having implications for economic and food security for countries like Pakistan. This price shock came at a time when the fragile economy of the country was recovering from the effects of COVID-19 pandemic and grappling with the threat of climate change (severe heat wave in March-April 2022 and cataclysmic floods in August-September 2022) Price shock has affected the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and Balance of Payments since Pakistan is a net importer of oil, LNG, edible oil, and now wheat and may impact economic growth in FY2023. In March 2022, per barrel price of oil saw an increase of 59 percent (USD118) as compared to December 2021. It is estimated that ‘as long as the conflict in Ukraine rages on, oil prices will remain above USD100/barrel, even though they are closer to USD90/barrel in October 2022. In 2022, gas prices are expected to increase by at least 50 percent, especially in Europe, where they have increased by more than 2.5 times in the last year due to its heavy dependency on Russian energy’.2 Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022. The CAD increased from USD 3.1 billion in FY2021 to 17.7 billion in FY2022. However, excluding the impact of oil and edible oil, the CAD could have fallen to around USD 7.7 billion. The increase in administered prices of fuel and electricity as well as shortages in wheat production has increased food inflation from 16.6 percent in September 2021 to 28.6 percent in September 2022 (YoY) while the overall CPI increased from 9.0 to 23.2 percent during the same period. Pakistan’s trade volume with Ukraine and Russia has been rising. During the last 24 years, the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Ukraine was USD 800 million including USD 739 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports). Likewise, the trade with Russia was USD 711 million including USD 537 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports).

Download or read book Social Accounting Matrices and Multiplier Analysis written by Clemens Breisinger and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2009 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This training guide introduces development practitioners, policy analysts, and students to social accounting matrices (SAMs) and their use in policy analysis. There are already a number of books that explain the System of National Accounts and SAM multipliers-some of these are recommended at the end of this training guide. However, most books tend to be quite technical and move quickly from an introduction to more complex applications. By contrast, this guidebook uses a series of hands-on exercises to gradually introduce SAMs and multiplier analysis. It therefore complements more theoretical SAM and multiplier literature and provides a first step for development practitioners and students wishing to understand the strengths and limitations of these economic tools. It is also useful for policy analysts and researchers embarking on more complex SAM-based methodologies. One such methodology is computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, for which IFPRI has also developed a series of introductory exercises and a standard modeling framework.To download the exercises, go to www.ifpri.org/publication/social-accounting-matrices-and-multiplier-analysis

Download or read book The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020 written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2020-07-01 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Updates for many countries have made it possible to estimate hunger in the world with greater accuracy this year. In particular, newly accessible data enabled the revision of the entire series of undernourishment estimates for China back to 2000, resulting in a substantial downward shift of the series of the number of undernourished in the world. Nevertheless, the revision confirms the trend reported in past editions: the number of people affected by hunger globally has been slowly on the rise since 2014. The report also shows that the burden of malnutrition in all its forms continues to be a challenge. There has been some progress for child stunting, low birthweight and exclusive breastfeeding, but at a pace that is still too slow. Childhood overweight is not improving and adult obesity is on the rise in all regions. The report complements the usual assessment of food security and nutrition with projections of what the world may look like in 2030, if trends of the last decade continue. Projections show that the world is not on track to achieve Zero Hunger by 2030 and, despite some progress, most indicators are also not on track to meet global nutrition targets. The food security and nutritional status of the most vulnerable population groups is likely to deteriorate further due to the health and socio economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report puts a spotlight on diet quality as a critical link between food security and nutrition. Meeting SDG 2 targets will only be possible if people have enough food to eat and if what they are eating is nutritious and affordable. The report also introduces new analysis of the cost and affordability of healthy diets around the world, by region and in different development contexts. It presents valuations of the health and climate-change costs associated with current food consumption patterns, as well as the potential cost savings if food consumption patterns were to shift towards healthy diets that include sustainability considerations. The report then concludes with a discussion of the policies and strategies to transform food systems to ensure affordable healthy diets, as part of the required efforts to end both hunger and all forms of malnutrition.

Download or read book The short term impacts of COVID 19 on the Malawian economy 2020 2021 A SAM multiplier modeling analysis written by Baulch, Bob and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-12-21 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This working paper builds on a report which was prepared for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference in November 2020. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses. We also model the impact of a faster and a slower lifting of restrictions and external shocks during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. With faster easing of restrictions, cumulative GDP gains turn positive by the third quarter of 2021 under the fast recovery scenario and exceed their pre-COVID-19 levels by US$178 million before the end of 2021. However, under the slow recovery scenario, Malawi’s GDP continues to decline until the end of 2020 before recovering during quarters 1 and 4 of 2021. However, this is not sufficient to wipe out the losses in quarters 2 to 4 of 2020, resulting in cumulative losses under the slow recovery scenario of US$332 million over the two years. Relative to the without COVID-19 scenario, US$937 million of GDP is lost under the fast recovery scenario and US$1,447 million under the slow recovery one. As both the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic situation in Malawi are highly uncertain at the present time, the results reported in this paper should be regarded as interim estimates, which are subject to revision as the underlying health and economic data change.

Download or read book Short term impacts of COVID 19 on the Malawian economy Initial results written by Baulch, Bob and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-06-29 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Report describes the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of the COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020. This analysis has been undertaken in order to inform the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi and represents a first pass attempt to measure the short-term economic impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economic. It should be noted that, unlike NPC (2020) our estimates of the economic impact of the COVID-19 on the Malawian economy do not extend beyond 2020 and do not try to set a value on loss of life or life-years. They do, however, allow for detailed breakdown of the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on different sectors and sub-sectors of the Malawian economy.

Download or read book Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-05-28 with total page 593 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.

Download or read book Macroeconomics of Climate Change in a Dualistic Economy written by Sevil Acar and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2018-01-25 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomics of Climate Change in a Dualistic Economy: A Regional General Equilibrium Analysis generates significant, genuinely novel insights about dual economies and sustainable economic growth. These insights are generalize-able and applicable worldwide. The authors overcome existing limitations in general equilibrium modeling. By concentrating on tensions between green growth and dualism, they consider the global efforts against climate change and opposition by specific countries based on economic development needs. Using Turkey as their primary example, they address these two most discussed and difficult issues related to policy setting, blazing a path for those seeking an applied economic research framework to study such economic considerations. - Couples a CGE climate change mitigation policy analysis with a dual economy approach - Presents methods to model and assess policy instruments for mitigating climate change - Provides data sets and models on a freely-accessible companion website - Offers a path for those seeking an applied economic research framework to study economic considerations

Download or read book The Social and Economic Impact of Covid 19 Rapid Transformation of the 21st Century Society written by Marcel Mečiar and published by IJOPEC PUBLICATION. This book was released on 2021-05-05 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The contributions in this book demonstrate that the Covid-19 pandemic has led to negative socioeconomic impacts, put a tremendous strain on social institutions in many countries, and changed the lives of people around the world. Society, economy, business companies, management structures of companies, consumption habits of society, education, and health sector have been significantly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Some of these effects are thought to be permanent even after the pandemic subsides. It is obvious that the process of digitization will continue in making a consumer’s life more comfortable and safer. Some researchers estimate that approximately 60 percent of companies plan to let their employees continue working remotely from home offices in the post-pandemic period. Many experts emphasize that online shopping, which increased rapidly during the pandemic period, will continue to dominate after the pandemic. Therefore, the social effects of the Covid-19 pandemic will be the subject of many academic studies today and in the future.

Download or read book Women s Empowerment and Nutrition written by Mara van den Bold and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many development programs that aim to alleviate poverty and improve investments in human capital consider women’s empowerment a key pathway by which to achieve impact and often target women as their main beneficiaries. Despite this, women’s empowerment dimensions are often not rigorously measured and are at times merely assumed. This paper starts by reflecting on the concept and measurement of women’s empowerment and then reviews some of the structural interventions that aim to influence underlying gender norms in society and eradicate gender discrimination. It then proceeds to review the evidence of the impact of three types of interventions—cash transfer programs, agricultural interventions, and microfinance programs—on women’s empowerment, nutrition, or both. Qualitative evidence on conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs generally points to positive impacts on women’s empowerment, although quantitative research findings are more heterogenous. CCT programs produce mixed results on long-term nutritional status, and very limited evidence exists of their impacts on micronutrient status. The little evidence available on unconditional cash transters (UCT) indicates mixed impacts on women’s empowerment and positive impacts on nutrition; however, recent reviews comparing CCT and UCT programs have found little difference in terms of their effects on stunting and they have found that conditionality is less important than other factors, such as access to healthcare and child age and sex. Evidence of cash transfer program impacts depending on the gender of the transfer recipient or on the conditionality is also mixed, although CCTs with non-health conditionalities seem to have negative impacts on nutritional status. The impacts of programs based on the gender of the transfer recipient show mixed results, but almost no experimental evidence exists of testing gender-differentiated impacts of a single program. Agricultural interventions—specifically home gardening and dairy projects—show mixed impacts on women’s empowerment measures such as time, workload, and control over income; but they demonstrate very little impact on nutrition. Implementation modalities are shown to determine differential impacts in terms of empowerment and nutrition outcomes. With regard to the impact of microfinance on women’s empowerment, evidence is also mixed, although more recent reviews do not find any impact on women’s empowerment. The impact of microfinance on nutritional status is mixed, with no evidence of impact on micronutrient status. Across all three types of programs (cash transfer programs, agricultural interventions, and microfinance programs), very little evidence exists on pathways of impact, and evidence is often biased toward a particular region. The paper ends with a discussion of the findings and remaining evidence gaps and an outline of recommendations for research.

Download or read book Handbook of Input output Table Compilation and Analysis written by United Nations. Statistical Division and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Steorts (former Chair, U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission) offers a general guide to safety, as well as a reference tool for understanding consumer safety concerns. Included are suggestions for "safety-proofing" one's home, discussions of product safety, and information on general areas of concern such as food safety, fire safety, electrical safety, poisons, outdoor safety, sport safety, holiday safety, and safety for the aged. The book also provides a behind-the-scenes account of how various organizations work to ensure the safety of consumers. Many chapters suggest other sources for more information and provide the phone numbers of product-safety organizations.

Download or read book COVID 19 and global food security Two years later written by McDermott, John and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-03-07 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions caused by this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are likely to endure for years to come, with poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups the most affected. In COVID-19 & Global Food Security: Two Years Later, the editors bring together contributions from new IFPRI research, blogs, and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub to examine the pandemic’s effects on poverty, food security, nutrition, and health around the world. This volume presents key lessons learned on food security and food system resilience in 2020 and 2021 and assesses the effectiveness of policy responses to the crisis. Looking forward, the authors consider how the pandemic experience can inform both recovery and longer-term efforts to build more resilient food systems.

Download or read book Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World written by Olivier Cattaneo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book looks to address the following questions in a post-crisis world: How have lead firms responded to the crisis? Have they changed their traditional supply chain strategy and relocated and/or outsourced part of their production? How will those changes affect developing countries? What should be the policy responses to these changes?

Download or read book Illicit Trade and the Global Economy written by Cláudia Costa Storti and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists explore the relationship between expanding international trade and the parallel growth in illicit trade, including illegal drugs, smuggling, and organized crime. As international trade has expanded dramatically in the postwar period--an expansion accelerated by the opening of China, Russia, India, and Eastern Europe--illicit international trade has grown in tandem with it. This volume uses the economist's toolkit to examine the economic, political, and social problems resulting from such illicit activities as illegal drug trade, smuggling, and organized crime. The contributors consider several aspects of the illegal drug market, including the sometimes puzzling relationships among purity, price, and risk; the effect of globalization on the heroin and cocaine markets, examined both through mathematical models and with empirical data from the U.K; the spread of khat, a psychoactive drug imported legally to the U.K. as a vegetable; and the economic effect of the "war on drugs" on producer and consumer countries. Other chapters examine the hidden financial flows of organized crime, patterns of smuggling in international trade, Iran's illicit trading activity, and the impact of mafia-like crime on foreign direct investment in Italy.