Download or read book Estimating Return Periods of Extreme Tropical Cyclone Winds Accounting for Effective Surface Roughness at High Resolution written by Robert Walker Whitfield and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the United States, tropical cyclones (TCs) were the leading cause of natural disaster-related fatalities and Consumer Price Index (CPI)-adjusted costs averaged over the years 1980-2017. Accurately assessing TC-induced extreme winds is crucial to proper risk management related to mitigation of these losses. Several studies attempt to calculate return periods (TRP), or the statistically estimated average time between events of a given magnitude, for extreme TC winds at point locations or along coastlines. This study seeks to further previous work by addressing concerns related to spatial and temporal resolutions, in addition to the consideration of TC winds as a function of surface roughness and fetch over land. We begin by analyzing HURDAT BestTrack Extended (1988-2017) data (EBTRK) at 0.25-degree (~27 km) resolution, assigning a maximum observed windspeed value per grid cell per year, to which several extreme value distributions (EVDs) are fit to the probability distribution function (PDF). The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is found to have the best fit to the EBTRK data, where fitting parameters are calculated based on these observations using the method of moments. We find the EBTRK dataset, while more continuous and higher resolution than previous assessments, lacks sufficient observations for proper fit to an EVD and it appears to not fully consider the effect of surface roughness on TC wind speed, likely because of great limitations on spatial information in the data set. To address these issues, we use 59,000 years of modeled TC winds produced by the Florida Public Loss Hurricane Model (FPLHM), which considers the effects of effective surface roughness on upstream winds on a fine scale (~90m), output at locations of interest roughly every kilometer. The study domain is narrowed down to the Tampa/Clearwater area of Florida for its various terrain and coastline features, from which six locations of varying terrain/coastline proximity are chosen. We reimplement the EVD fitting procedure to the FPLHM data, again finding the GPD to be the best fit, and extrapolating out TRP values for the most extreme TC winds at each location. Empirically calculated TRP values are also plotted for the entire domain to gain a sense of those associated patterns. We find TRP and subsequent expected winds can vary dramatically depending on effective surface roughness over distances at least as short as ~1 km (the finest resolution of the saved modeled data), while distance inland independent of TC weakening plays a lesser of a role after the first few kilometers. The results indicate a need for more accurate future TRP analyses that are both at a fine scale and incorporate effective surface roughness, which also points to the weakness in using historical data in areas with recent changes in land use.

Download or read book Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclones written by Asuka Suzuki-Parker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-05 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis work was in two major parts: development and testing of a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A feature here was the careful attention to sensitivity to choice of selection parameters, which is considerable. The major finding was that the changes over time were relatively insensitive to these details. This new approach will improve and add confidence to future assessments of climate impacts on hurricanes. The extremes approach utilized the Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the standard approaches to statistics of extremes) applied to present and future hurricane distributions as modeled by a regional climate model, then applied the changes to current observations to extract the changes in the extremes. Since climate models cannot resolve these extremes directly, this provides an excellent method of determining weather extremes in general. This is of considerable societal importance as we are most vulnerable to such extremes and knowledge of their changes enables improved planning and adaptation strategies.

Download or read book Estimating Maximum Wind Speed of Tropical Storms from High Resolution of Infrared Data written by Lester F. Hubert and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Estimating Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Intensities in the Vicinity of Hawaii written by Jianxin Wang and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Calculating Tropical Cyclone Critical Wind Radii and Storm Size Using NSCAT Winds written by Scott G. Magnan and published by . This book was released on 1998-03-01 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Subjective and objective analyses of satellite scatterometer near- surface winds are utilized to estimate tropical cyclone (TC) critical wind radii and size over a region of the western North Pacific. An outer wind profile assuming a linear slope dependent on the TC latitude is used to determine the radial extent of cyclonic winds beyond a set radius. Inside the set radius, a partial conservation of angular momentum is assumed into the TC maximum wind radius and the 35, -50, and 100-kt radii are calculated. Nine TCs were investigated during the operating period of the NASA scatterometer (NSCAT). Critical wind radii values in four quadrants (front, right, rear, and left) of the TCs are found to be comparable to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) critical wind radii values issued in warnings. The radial extent of cyclonic winds are also comparable to the radius of zero winds estimated by determining where the cyclonic flow turned to anticyclonic flow in the NSCAT sea-surface wind swaths.

Download or read book Use of Geostationary satellite Cloud Vectors to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity written by Carl O. Erickson and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis Using Satellite Data written by Vernon F. Dvorak and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Hurricane Wind Risk Study for the Eastern Caribbean Jamaica and Belize with Special Consideration to the Influence of Topography written by Alan Garnett Davenport and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Statistical Model for the Prediction of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Motion WPCLPR written by Xu Yiming and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Origin Movement and Intensity Characteristics Based on Data Compositing Techniques written by W. M. Gray and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Up-to-date results of recent tropical cyclone research at Colorado State University are presented. Particular attention is paid to new findings which impact on tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting efforts. Observational studies using large amounts of composited rawinsonde, satellite, and aircraft flight data have been performed to analyze global aspects of tropical cyclone occurrences, physical processes of tropical cyclone genesis, tropical cyclone intensity change, environmental factors influencing tropical cyclone turning motion 24-36 hours before the turn takes place, tropical cyclone intensity determination from upper tropospheric reconnaissance, and the diurnal variations of vertical motion in tropical weather systems. (Author).

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Dynamics Prediction and Detection written by Anthony Lupo and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2016-11-02 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, tropical cyclones continue to bring destruction, as well as disruption, to societies that are exposed to their threat. This book represents a compilation of recent cutting-edge research on tropical cyclones and their impacts from researchers at many institutions around the world. This book contains new looks at tropical cyclone dynamics, the use of satellite-based remote sensing in the detection and climatology of tropical cyclones, and the modeling and prediction of tropical cyclones as well as their associated impacts. This book would make a nice addition to any course on tropical meteorology highlighting topics of interest in recent research on this topic.

Download or read book Monitoring Tropical Cyclone Evolution with NOAA Satellite Microwave Observations written by Christopher S. Velden and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Current Topics in Tropical Cyclone Research written by Anthony Lupo and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2020-11-04 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights some of the most recent research in the climatological behavior of tropical cyclones as well as the dynamics, predictability, and character of these storms as derived using remote sensing techniques. Also included in this book is a review of the interaction between tropical cyclones and coastal ocean dynamics in the Northwest Pacific and an evaluation of the performance of CMIP6 models in replicating the current climate using accumulated cyclone energy. The latter demonstrates how the climate may change in the future. This book can be a useful resource for those studying the character of these storms, especially those with the goal of anticipating their future occurrence in both the short and climatological range and their associated hazards.

Download or read book Wind Stress Over the Ocean written by Ian S. F. Jones and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-09-24 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive 2001 volume for researchers and graduate students in oceanography, meteorology, fluid dynamics and coastal engineering.

Download or read book The Outer Radius Tangential Winds of Tropical Cyclones written by Stephen B. Cocks and published by . This book was released on 1997-07-01 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Knowledge of the strength and horizontal extent of damaging winds from the center of a tropical cyclone is crucial for coastline preparations, forecasting coastal flooding and shipping interests. This study attempts to improve our understanding, estimation and prediction of the outer wind profiles of typhoons. The mean radii of 30 knot (R30), 50 knot (R50) and 65 knot (R65) winds are calculated using aircraft reconnaissance, satellite and synoptic data for 35 tropical cyclones during approximately 300 different time periods. By examining the change in the outer wind profile with time and central pressure, three cyclone classes were noted. One class of cyclones experiences a R30 increase which persists at least one day past its maximum intensity; these are termed 'delayed.' Another class experiences a trend in R30 that follows the trend in the central pressure; these are termed as 'simultaneous'. Similar differences were noted for R50 and R65 in simultaneous and delayed cyclones. However, the differences in the two cyclone classes diminish as one goes closer to the inner core. A less common class of cyclone had R30 values that were very large from the beginning of their formation and remained large throughout most of its life cycle. These were designated 'gyre' cyclones. Changes in outer winds as related to time of year, cyclone direction of motion, cyclone size and intensity are discussed for these cyclone classes. Composites of each cyclone class were created and the life cycle of the outer winds, central pressure, eye size, and synoptic size were investigated.

Download or read book National Plan for Tropical Cyclone Research written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Objectively Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Wind Structure Using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit written by Julie L. Demuth and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: