Download or read book Estimating Poland s Potential Output written by Mr.Natan P. Epstein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.
Download or read book Estimating a Supply Block for Poland written by Franck Sédillot and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The supply-side framework and related measures of output and unemployment gaps play a leading role in the OECD analysis of short-term conjunctural conditions and long-term determinants of growth. To allow such diagnoses for Poland, this paper develops a comprehensive supply block in accordance with the OECD approach. The structural unemployment rate is derived from a Phillips-curve equation and, along with working age population, is combined with filter-based estimates of trend labour productivity, participation rates and hours worked per employee to generate measures of potential output. The performance of the model in capturing price pressures underlying the growth trajectory of the Polish economy is assessed, and measures of cyclically-adjusted general government net lending are provided. Based on the OECD autumn 2007 projections for 2008 and 2009, out-of-sample simulations derived from the Phillips-curve model suggest that CPI inflation is likely to continue to trend upward, exceeding the central bank?s inflation target by a wide margin.
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances written by Claude Giorno and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America Panama and Dominican Republic written by Mr.Christian A Johnson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-12 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Potential Output is a key factor for debt sustaintability analysis and for developing strategies for growth, but unfortunately it is an unobservable variable. Using three methodologies (production function, switching, and state-space), this paper computes potential output for CAPDR countries using annual data. Main findings are: i) CAPDR potential growth is about 4.4 percent while output gap volatility is about 1.9 percent; ii) The highest-potential growth country is Panama (6.5 percent) while the lowest-growth country is El Salvador (2.6 percent); iii) CAPDR business cycle is about eigth years.
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in Slovakia written by Tetsuya Konuki and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output written by Paul Conway and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data written by Gilles Dufrénot and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-11-21 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a comprehensive overview of the latest econometric methods for studying the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial time series. It examines alternative methodological approaches and concepts, including quantile spectra and co-spectra, and explores topics such as non-linear and non-stationary behavior, stochastic volatility models, and the econometrics of commodity markets and globalization. Furthermore, it demonstrates the application of recent techniques in various fields: in the frequency domain, in the analysis of persistent dynamics, in the estimation of state space models and new classes of volatility models. The book is divided into two parts: The first part applies econometrics to the field of macroeconomics, discussing trend/cycle decomposition, growth analysis, monetary policy and international trade. The second part applies econometrics to a wide range of topics in financial economics, including price dynamics in equity, commodity and foreign exchange markets and portfolio analysis. The book is essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners in government and financial institutions interested in applying recent econometric time series methods to financial and economic data.
Download or read book What Is in Your Output Gap Unified Framework Decomposition into Observables written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-10 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap Is It Worth Your Time written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Download or read book Daily Consular and Trade Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1926 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Commerce Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1927 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Cambodia written by Mr.Olaf Unteroberdoerster and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-27 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cambodia is poised to join a new generation of Asian frontier economies transitioning from low-income to emerging-market. But the path to greater and more shared prosperity requires a solid foundation of sound macroeconomic policies, enabling new growth drivers, tackling a highly dollarized and fragmented financial system, and creating more fiscal policy space to help meet Cambodia’s vast development needs. This book first takes a closer look at the key economic challenges Cambodia faces at the current juncture, highlighting Cambodia’s structural and financial constraints to growth as well as shifting vulnerabilities as Asia rebalances. It then lays out how a strategy of fiscal and financial sector policies, from creating a fairer and more buoyant tax system to modernizing financial instruments, markets and supervision, can help mobilize the resources and tools needed for one of Asia’s youngest and fastest-growing populations to enjoy more self-sustaining and inclusive growth.
Download or read book Republic of Poland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-14 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights the fact that to address the challenge of declining working age population, policies should not only aim to support fertility, but also to increase labor force participation rate, to improve labor allocation across sectors and to encourage net immigration. However, with some recent measures going in the opposite direction, even such mitigating policies may not fully offset the demographic headwinds. Poland faces profound demographic changes. The decline of fertility rate and growing life expectancy, mostly driven by longevity of older cohorts, will significantly change the demographic landscape. Demographics may soon pose a barrier for growth. The historical expansion of working age population appears to have been only partly utilized to boost potential growth, with increased unemployment and declined labor force participation rates dampening potential gains. Net migration was also a drag on the labor supply in the past, but this has changed recently. In addition to a steady outflow of permanent migrants, there was a sharp pickup in temporary migration after EU accession.
Download or read book Ireland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-28 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper estimates the cyclical position of the Irish economy. Assessing the business cycle in Ireland is complicated by the open character of its labor market and large presence of globally active multinationals. However, analysis suggests that the Irish economy is in the midst of a cyclical upswing. All methods suggest a positive output gap in 2017, while the labor market shows signs of upward wage pressures, as net immigration has been weak so far. These signs are consistent with a cyclical upswing, amid strong estimated potential output growth, and point to risks of a boom-bust cycle, should the economy continue to push the growth momentum.
Download or read book Republic of Poland written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-07-05 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues Paper focuses on the economic and financial ties between Poland and the euro area and analyzes the associated spillovers. It documents stylized facts about trade, vertical integration, foreign direct investment, and banking system linkages between Poland and core euro area countries. The impact of shocks originating from the euro area on economic developments in Poland is quantified using two methods, namely a vector auto-regression model and a small-open-economy quarterly projection model.
Download or read book International Coal Trade written by and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modeling with Limited Data written by Mr.Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-01 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics’. The framework is used to forecast potential growth for Cambodia, and to conduct simulations about the main drivers of growth in that country. The main result is that Cambodia compares less favorably against other lower-income Asian economies in terms of its investment rate, which in turn is constrained by the poor quality of its infrastructure. Bridging this gap can lift Cambodia’s potential growth by more than one percentage point.
