Download or read book Estimating Mortality Risk in Populations and Individuals written by Reed Sorensen and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding mortality risk, including its distribution and determinants, is fundamental to the health sciences and any effort to prevent needless deaths. This dissertation is an exploration of modern methods for estimating mortality risk in populations and individuals. While Bayesian statistics and machine learning have both benefited from advances in modern computing, they are polar opposites in terms of modeling strategy. Bayesian methods are rigid by design -- rigid in a particular way determined by the modeler -- in an effort to provide contextual information to the model. Machine learning methods are more flexible, seeking the information content of the data wherever it may exist. Chapter 1 of this dissertation describes a novel Bayesian method called a spline cascade that is capable of characterizing how a non-linear curve varies across hierarchical subsets of a dataset. We developed the method to model age patterns of COVID-19 mortality for global locations. Chapter 2 demonstrates how machine learning and variable attribution methods can and should be used in analytic epidemiology. We used XGBoost and SHAP values to investigate patterns in the relationship between anthropometric measurements and mortality risk, adjusting for age. Chapter 3 is a simulation study comparing Bayesian spline cascades, XGBoost and existing methods for estimating child mortality risk in 193 countries. We develop a theory of model validation and discuss the role of Bayesian statistics and machine learning in the health sciences.
Download or read book Research Ethics in Complex Humanitarian Emergencies written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2002-08-13 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Situations involving conflict and forced migration have become increasingly commonplace in today's world. The need to understand the causes, consequences, and characteristics of these situations is creating a burgeoning field of research. But given the nature of complex emergency settings, traditional research guidelines may be inappropriate. The research and policy community has recognized this problem and has begun to address issues surrounding the ethics of doing research in emergency settings and among conflict-affected and displaced populations. The Roundtable on the Demography of Forced Migration, under the aegis of the Committee on Population of the National Research Council, held a workshop to examine some of these issues. This report to the roundtable summarizes the workshop presentations and discussion.
Download or read book A Framework for Assessing Mortality and Morbidity After Large Scale Disasters written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2020-12-25 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the wake of a large-scale disaster, from the initial devastation through the long tail of recovery, protecting the health and well-being of the affected individuals and communities is paramount. Accurate and timely information about mortality and significant morbidity related to the disaster are the cornerstone of the efforts of the disaster management enterprise to save lives and prevent further health impacts. Conversely, failure to accurately capture mortality and significant morbidity data undercuts the nation's capacity to protect its population. Information about disaster-related mortality and significant morbidity adds value at all phases of the disaster management cycle. As a disaster unfolds, the data are crucial in guiding response and recovery priorities, ensuring a common operating picture and real-time situational awareness across stakeholders, and protecting vulnerable populations and settings at heightened risk. A Framework for Assessing Mortality and Morbidity After Large-Scale Disasters reviews and describes the current state of the field of disaster-related mortality and significant morbidity assessment. This report examines practices and methods for data collection, recording, sharing, and use across state, local, tribal, and territorial stakeholders; evaluates best practices; and identifies areas for future resource investment.
Download or read book The Global Burden of Disease written by Christopher J. L. Murray and published by Harvard School of Public Health, Frangois-Xavier Bagnoud Cen. This book was released on 1996 with total page 1034 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) provides systematic epidemiological estimates for an unprecedented 150 major health conditions. The GBD provides indispensable global and regional data for health planning, research, and education.
Download or read book Mortality Risk Valuation in Environment Health and Transport Policies written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2012-02-02 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book presents a major meta-analysis of 'value of a statistical life' (VSL) estimates derived from surveys where people around the world have been asked about their willingness to pay for small reduction in mortality risks.
Download or read book Policy Monitorhow Us Government Agencies Value Mortality Risk Reductions written by Lisa A. Robinson and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One challenging task faced by US government agencies is determining whether the benefits of their proposed regulations justify the costs. For benefits associated with reducing the risks of premature mortality, they rely on an analytic construct--the value per statistical life (VSL)--which aggregates the value of small changes in mortality risk across a large population; it is not the value of saving a particular person's life. Empirical research suggests that this value ranges from roughly $1 million to $10 million per statistical life. While federal agencies usually apply values from within this range, they vary in the exact estimates used. The research literature generally addresses mortality risks and populations that differ in some significant respects from those addressed by most major regulations. A particularly contentious issue has been whether to adjust the estimates to reflect age differences. One approach involves translating VSL estimates into a value per statistical life year (VSLY) to take into account the number of years of life extension. Because the years of life extension are closely related to age, the use of a VSLY approach generally results in lower values for older individuals. However, the relationship of the VSL to age or life expectancy is complex, and such adjustments have raised significant concerns about the equitable treatment of individuals of different ages in the development of federal policy.
Download or read book Analysis of Cancer Risks in Populations Near Nuclear Facilities written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2012-06-29 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the late 1980s, the National Cancer Institute initiated an investigation of cancer risks in populations near 52 commercial nuclear power plants and 10 Department of Energy nuclear facilities (including research and nuclear weapons production facilities and one reprocessing plant) in the United States. The results of the NCI investigation were used a primary resource for communicating with the public about the cancer risks near the nuclear facilities. However, this study is now over 20 years old. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission requested that the National Academy of Sciences provide an updated assessment of cancer risks in populations near USNRC-licensed nuclear facilities that utilize or process uranium for the production of electricity. Analysis of Cancer Risks in Populations near Nuclear Facilities: Phase 1 focuses on identifying scientifically sound approaches for carrying out an assessment of cancer risks associated with living near a nuclear facility, judgments about the strengths and weaknesses of various statistical power, ability to assess potential confounding factors, possible biases, and required effort. The results from this Phase 1 study will be used to inform the design of cancer risk assessment, which will be carried out in Phase 2. This report is beneficial for the general public, communities near nuclear facilities, stakeholders, healthcare providers, policy makers, state and local officials, community leaders, and the media.
Download or read book Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation written by Committee to Assess Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-03-23 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the seventh in a series of titles from the National Research Council that addresses the effects of exposure to low dose LET (Linear Energy Transfer) ionizing radiation and human health. Updating information previously presented in the 1990 publication, Health Effects of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation: BEIR V, this book draws upon new data in both epidemiologic and experimental research. Ionizing radiation arises from both natural and man-made sources and at very high doses can produce damaging effects in human tissue that can be evident within days after exposure. However, it is the low-dose exposures that are the focus of this book. So-called “late” effects, such as cancer, are produced many years after the initial exposure. This book is among the first of its kind to include detailed risk estimates for cancer incidence in addition to cancer mortality. BEIR VII offers a full review of the available biological, biophysical, and epidemiological literature since the last BEIR report on the subject and develops the most up-to-date and comprehensive risk estimates for cancer and other health effects from exposure to low-level ionizing radiation.
Download or read book Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2008-08-21 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In light of recent evidence on the relationship of ozone to mortality and questions about its implications for benefit analysis, the Environmental Protection Agency asked the National Research Council to establish a committee of experts to evaluate independently the contributions of recent epidemiologic studies to understanding the size of the ozone-mortality effect in the context of benefit analysis. The committee was also asked to assess methods for estimating how much a reduction in short-term exposure to ozone would reduce premature deaths, to assess methods for estimating associated increases in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.
Download or read book Accounting for Health and Health Care written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-01-05 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It has become trite to observe that increases in health care costs have become unsustainable. How best for policy to address these increases, however, depends in part on the degree to which they represent increases in the real quantity of medical services as opposed to increased unit prices of existing services. And an even more fundamental question is the degree to which the increased spending actually has purchased improved health. Accounting for Health and Health Care addresses both these issues. The government agencies responsible for measuring unit prices for medical services have taken steps in recent years that have greatly improved the accuracy of those measures. Nonetheless, this book has several recommendations aimed at further improving the price indices.
Download or read book Estimation of Mortality Rates in Stage structured Population written by Simon N. Wood and published by Springer. This book was released on 1991 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The stated aims of the Lecture Notes in Biomathematics allow for work that is "unfinished or tentative". This volume is offered in that spirit. The problem addressed is one of the classics of statistical ecology, the estimation of mortality rates from stage-frequency data, but in tackling it we found ourselves making use of ideas and techniques very different from those we expected to use, and in which we had no previous experience. Specifically we drifted towards consideration of some rather specific curve and surface fitting and smoothing techniques. We think we have made some progress (otherwise why publish?), but are acutely aware of the conceptual and statistical clumsiness of parts of the work. Readers with sufficient expertise to be offended should regard the monograph as a challenge to do better. The central theme in this book is a somewhat complex algorithm for mortality estimation (detailed at the end of Chapter 4). Because of its complexity, the job of implementing the method is intimidating. Any reader interested in using the methods may obtain copies of our code as follows: Intelligible Structured Code 1. Hutchinson and deHoog's algorithm for fitting smoothing splines by cross validation 2. Cubic covariant area-approximating splines 3. Cubic interpolating splines 4. Cubic area matching splines 5. Hyman's algorithm for monotonic interpolation based on cubic splines. Prototype User-Hostile Code 6. Positive constrained interpolation 7. Positive constrained area matching 8. The "full method" from chapter 4 9. The "simpler" method from chapter 4.
Download or read book The Future of the Public s Health in the 21st Century written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2003-02-01 with total page 536 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The anthrax incidents following the 9/11 terrorist attacks put the spotlight on the nation's public health agencies, placing it under an unprecedented scrutiny that added new dimensions to the complex issues considered in this report. The Future of the Public's Health in the 21st Century reaffirms the vision of Healthy People 2010, and outlines a systems approach to assuring the nation's health in practice, research, and policy. This approach focuses on joining the unique resources and perspectives of diverse sectors and entities and challenges these groups to work in a concerted, strategic way to promote and protect the public's health. Focusing on diverse partnerships as the framework for public health, the book discusses: The need for a shift from an individual to a population-based approach in practice, research, policy, and community engagement. The status of the governmental public health infrastructure and what needs to be improved, including its interface with the health care delivery system. The roles nongovernment actors, such as academia, business, local communities and the media can play in creating a healthy nation. Providing an accessible analysis, this book will be important to public health policy-makers and practitioners, business and community leaders, health advocates, educators and journalists.
Download or read book Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors written by Alan D. Lopez and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006-04-02 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strategic health planning, the cornerstone of initiatives designed to achieve health improvement goals around the world, requires an understanding of the comparative burden of diseases and injuries, their corresponding risk factors and the likely effects of invervention options. The Global Burden of Disease framework, originally published in 1990, has been widely adopted as the preferred method for health accounting and has become the standard to guide the setting of health research priorities. This publication sets out an updated assessment of the situation, with an analysis of trends observed since 1990 and a chapter on the sensitivity of GBD estimates to various sources of uncertainty in methods and data.
Download or read book Comparative Quantification of Health Risks Sexual and reproductive health written by Majid Ezzati and published by World Health Organization. This book was released on 2004 with total page 2282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a comprehensive assessment of the scientific evidence on prevalence and the resulting health effects of a range of exposures that are know to be hazardous to human health, including childhood and maternal undernutrition, nutritional and physiological risk factors for adult health, addictive substances, sexual and reproductive health risks, and risks in the physical environments of households and communities, as well as among workers. This book is the culmination of over four years of scientific equiry and data collection, know as the comparative risk assessment (CRA) project.
Download or read book Procedures for Collecting and Analyzing Mortality Data in LSMS written by Susan Hill Cochrane and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Infant/child mortality data might be appropriate for describing the well-being of households, as it can be used to estimate differences between socioeconomic groups and to analyze correlates of mortality. A well-defined mortality rate is specific to a particular age interval and time period and requires information on the number of deaths, by age, during a defined time period and the population at risk, by age, during the same time period. Accurate information of this sort is difficult to obtain. This report reviews three possible methodologies for estimating mortality rates, and identifies the strengths and weaknesses of each. The specifics of data collection and techniques for transforming the collected data into mortality estimates are given. The three techniques are: (i) direct estimation with reference period data; (ii) indirect estimation with childhood survivorship data; and (iii) indirect estimation with reference period data. Analysis of the data is based on mortality differentials and multivariate analysis, which produce two quite different sets of issues.
Download or read book Small Area Estimation written by J. N. K. Rao and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-02-25 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An accessible introduction to indirect estimation methods, both traditional and model-based. Readers will also find the latest methods for measuring the variability of the estimates as well as the techniques for model validation. Uses a basic area-level linear model to illustrate the methods Presents the various extensions including binary response data through generalized linear models and time series data through linear models that combine cross-sectional and time series features Provides recent applications of SAE including several in U.S. Federal programs Offers a comprehensive discussion of the design issues that impact SAE
Download or read book Methods for Estimating Fertility and Mortality from Limited and Defective Data written by William Brass and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
