Download or read book Estimating Deterministic Trends with an Integrated Or Stationary Noise Component written by Pierre Perron and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A test is proposed for the slope of a trend function when it is a priori unknown whether the series is trend-stationary or contains an autoregressive unit root. Let [alpha] be the sum of the autoregressive coefficients in the autoregressive representation of the series. The procedure is based on a Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares method from an AR(1) specification with parameter [alpha]. The estimate of [alpha] is the OLS estimate obtained from an autoregression applied to detrended data and is truncated to take a value 1 whenever the estimate is in a T [to the power of negative delta] neighborhood of 1. This makes the estimate "super-efficient" when [alpha]=1 and implies that inference on the slope parameter can be performed using the standard Normal distribution whether [alpha]=1 or [absolute alpha is less than] 1. Theoretical arguments and simulation evidence show that d=1/2 is the appropriate choice. Simulations show that this procedure has good size properties and greater power than the tests proposed by Vogelsang (1998). Applications to inference about the growth rates of GNP for many countries show the usefulness of the method.--Authors' abstract.

Download or read book Forecasting with Univariate Box Jenkins Models written by Alan Pankratz and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-09-25 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains the concepts and use of univariate Box-Jenkins/ARIMA analysis and forecasting through 15 case studies. Cases show how to build good ARIMA models in a step-by-step manner using real data. Also includes examples of model misspecification. Provides guidance to alternative models and discusses reasons for choosing one over another.

Download or read book Introduction to Statistical Time Series written by Wayne A. Fuller and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-09-25 with total page 734 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The subject of time series is of considerable interest, especiallyamong researchers in econometrics, engineering, and the naturalsciences. As part of the prestigious Wiley Series in Probabilityand Statistics, this book provides a lucid introduction to thefield and, in this new Second Edition, covers the importantadvances of recent years, including nonstationary models, nonlinearestimation, multivariate models, state space representations, andempirical model identification. New sections have also been addedon the Wold decomposition, partial autocorrelation, long memoryprocesses, and the Kalman filter. Major topics include: * Moving average and autoregressive processes * Introduction to Fourier analysis * Spectral theory and filtering * Large sample theory * Estimation of the mean and autocorrelations * Estimation of the spectrum * Parameter estimation * Regression, trend, and seasonality * Unit root and explosive time series To accommodate a wide variety of readers, review material,especially on elementary results in Fourier analysis, large samplestatistics, and difference equations, has been included.

Download or read book Spatial Econometrics written by Giuseppe Arbia and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-11-14 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Spatial Econometrics is a rapidly evolving field born from the joint efforts of economists, statisticians, econometricians and regional scientists. The book provides the reader with a broad view of the topic by including both methodological and application papers. Indeed the application papers relate to a number of diverse scientific fields ranging from hedonic models of house pricing to demography, from health care to regional economics, from the analysis of R&D spillovers to the study of retail market spatial characteristics. Particular emphasis is given to regional economic applications of spatial econometrics methods with a number of contributions specifically focused on the spatial concentration of economic activities and agglomeration, regional paths of economic growth, regional convergence of income and productivity and the evolution of regional employment. Most of the papers appearing in this book were solicited from the International Workshop on Spatial Econometrics and Statistics held in Rome (Italy) in 2006.

Download or read book Time Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations written by Mr.Abdelhak Senhadji and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-10-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper derives a structural import demand equation and estimates it for a large number of countries, using recent time series techniques that address the problem of nonstationarity. Because the statistical properties of the different estimators have been derived only asymptotically, econometric theory does not offer any guidance when it comes to comparing different estimators in small samples. Consequently, the paper derives the small-sample properties of both the ordinary-least-squares (OLS) and the fully-modified (FM) estimators using Monte Carlo methods. It is shown that FM dominates OLS for both the short- and long-run elasticities.

Download or read book IMF Staff papers Volume 45 No 2 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-01-01 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes contagion and volatility with imperfect credit markets. The paper interprets contagion effects as an increase in the volatility of shocks impinging on the economy. The implications of this approach are analyzed in a model in which domestic banks borrow at a premium on world capital markets, and domestic producers borrow at a premium from domestic banks. Financial spreads depend on a markup that compensates lenders, in particular, for the expected cost of contract enforcement. Higher volatility increases financial spreads and the producers’ cost of capital.

Download or read book Handbook of Mathematics written by Vialar Thierry and published by BoD - Books on Demand. This book was released on 2023-08-22 with total page 1134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book, revised, consists of XI Parts and 28 Chapters covering all areas of mathematics. It is a tool for students, scientists, engineers, students of many disciplines, teachers, professionals, writers and also for a general reader with an interest in mathematics and in science. It provides a wide range of mathematical concepts, definitions, propositions, theorems, proofs, examples, and numerous illustrations. The difficulty level can vary depending on chapters, and sustained attention will be required for some. The structure and list of Parts are quite classical: I. Foundations of Mathematics, II. Algebra, III. Number Theory, IV. Geometry, V. Analytic Geometry, VI. Topology, VII. Algebraic Topology, VIII. Analysis, IX. Category Theory, X. Probability and Statistics, XI. Applied Mathematics. Appendices provide useful lists of symbols and tables for ready reference. Extensive cross-references allow readers to find related terms, concepts and items (by page number, heading, and objet such as theorem, definition, example, etc.). The publisher’s hope is that this book, slightly revised and in a convenient format, will serve the needs of readers, be it for study, teaching, exploration, work, or research.

Download or read book Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Lake Water Quality Trends written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book ASA 2021 Statistics and Information Systems for Policy Evaluation written by Bruno Bertaccini and published by Firenze University Press. This book was released on 2021-12-22 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book includes 40 peer-reviewed short papers submitted to the Scientific Conference titled Statistics and Information Systems for Policy Evaluation, aimed at promoting new statistical methods and applications for the evaluation of policies and organized by the Association for Applied Statistics (ASA) and the Dept. of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications DiSIA “G. Parenti” of the University of Florence, jointly with the partners AICQ (Italian Association for Quality Culture), AICQ-CN (Italian Association for Quality Culture North and Centre of Italy), AISS (Italian Academy for Six Sigma), ASSIRM (Italian Association for Marketing, Social and Opinion Research), Comune di Firenze, the SIS – Italian Statistical Society, Regione Toscana and Valmon – Evaluation & Monitoring.

Download or read book Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis written by Steven Durlauf and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-30 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.

Download or read book Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty written by David E. Rapach and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2008-02-29 with total page 691 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.

Download or read book Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations written by Mr.Abdelhak Senhadji and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-10-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper estimates export demand elasticities for a large number of developing and developed countries, using time-series techniques that account for the nonstationarity in the data. The average long-run price and income elasticities are found to be approximately -1 and 1.5, respectively. Thus, exports do react to both the trade partners’ income and to relative prices. Africa faces the lowest income elasticities for its exports, while Asia has both the highest income and price elasticities. The price and income elasticity estimates have good statistical properties.

Download or read book Time Series Econometrics written by Klaus Neusser and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-14 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text presents modern developments in time series analysis and focuses on their application to economic problems. The book first introduces the fundamental concept of a stationary time series and the basic properties of covariance, investigating the structure and estimation of autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models and their relations to the covariance structure. The book then moves on to non-stationary time series, highlighting its consequences for modeling and forecasting and presenting standard statistical tests and regressions. Next, the text discusses volatility models and their applications in the analysis of financial market data, focusing on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models. The second part of the text devoted to multivariate processes, such as vector autoregressive (VAR) models and structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models, which have become the main tools in empirical macroeconomics. The text concludes with a discussion of co-integrated models and the Kalman Filter, which is being used with increasing frequency. Mathematically rigorous, yet application-oriented, this self-contained text will help students develop a deeper understanding of theory and better command of the models that are vital to the field. Assuming a basic knowledge of statistics and/or econometrics, this text is best suited for advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students.

Download or read book Applied Time Series Analysis with R written by Wayne A. Woodward and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-02-17 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Virtually any random process developing chronologically can be viewed as a time series. In economics closing prices of stocks, the cost of money, the jobless rate, and retail sales are just a few examples of many. Developed from course notes and extensively classroom-tested, Applied Time Series Analysis with R, Second Edition includes examples across a variety of fields, develops theory, and provides an R-based software package to aid in addressing time series problems in a broad spectrum of fields. The material is organized in an optimal format for graduate students in statistics as well as in the natural and social sciences to learn to use and understand the tools of applied time series analysis. Features Gives readers the ability to actually solve significant real-world problems Addresses many types of nonstationary time series and cutting-edge methodologies Promotes understanding of the data and associated models rather than viewing it as the output of a "black box" Provides the R package tswge available on CRAN which contains functions and over 100 real and simulated data sets to accompany the book. Extensive help regarding the use of tswge functions is provided in appendices and on an associated website. Over 150 exercises and extensive support for instructors The second edition includes additional real-data examples, uses R-based code that helps students easily analyze data, generate realizations from models, and explore the associated characteristics. It also adds discussion of new advances in the analysis of long memory data and data with time-varying frequencies (TVF).

Download or read book Another Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator written by Kenneth D. West and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A þT consistent estimator of a heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimator is proposed and evaluated. The relevant applications are ones in which the regression disturbance follows a moving average process of known order. In a system of þ equations, this `MA-þ' estimator entails estimation of the moving average coefficients of an þ-dimensional vector. Simulations indicate that the MA-þ estimator's finite sample performance is better than that of the estimators of Andrews and Monahan (1992) and Newey and West (1994) when cross-products of instruments and disturbances are sharply negatively autocorrelated, comparable or slightly worse otherwise.

Download or read book Principles of System Identification written by Arun K. Tangirala and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-10-08 with total page 908 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master Techniques and Successfully Build Models Using a Single Resource Vital to all data-driven or measurement-based process operations, system identification is an interface that is based on observational science, and centers on developing mathematical models from observed data. Principles of System Identification: Theory and Practice is an introductory-level book that presents the basic foundations and underlying methods relevant to system identification. The overall scope of the book focuses on system identification with an emphasis on practice, and concentrates most specifically on discrete-time linear system identification. Useful for Both Theory and Practice The book presents the foundational pillars of identification, namely, the theory of discrete-time LTI systems, the basics of signal processing, the theory of random processes, and estimation theory. It explains the core theoretical concepts of building (linear) dynamic models from experimental data, as well as the experimental and practical aspects of identification. The author offers glimpses of modern developments in this area, and provides numerical and simulation-based examples, case studies, end-of-chapter problems, and other ample references to code for illustration and training. Comprising 26 chapters, and ideal for coursework and self-study, this extensive text: Provides the essential concepts of identification Lays down the foundations of mathematical descriptions of systems, random processes, and estimation in the context of identification Discusses the theory pertaining to non-parametric and parametric models for deterministic-plus-stochastic LTI systems in detail Demonstrates the concepts and methods of identification on different case-studies Presents a gradual development of state-space identification and grey-box modeling Offers an overview of advanced topics of identification namely the linear time-varying (LTV), non-linear, and closed-loop identification Discusses a multivariable approach to identification using the iterative principal component analysis Embeds MATLAB® codes for illustrated examples in the text at the respective points Principles of System Identification: Theory and Practice presents a formal base in LTI deterministic and stochastic systems modeling and estimation theory; it is a one-stop reference for introductory to moderately advanced courses on system identification, as well as introductory courses on stochastic signal processing or time-series analysis.The MATLAB scripts and SIMULINK models used as examples and case studies in the book are also available on the author's website: http://arunkt.wix.com/homepage#!textbook/c397

Download or read book Modelling Trends and Cycles in Economic Time Series written by Terence C. Mills and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-07-29 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series has a long history, with the use of linear trends and moving averages forming the basic tool kit of economists until the 1970s. Several developments in econometrics then led to an overhaul of the techniques used to extract trends and cycles from time series. In this second edition, Terence Mills expands on the research in the area of trends and cycles over the last (almost) two decades, to highlight to students and researchers the variety of techniques and the considerations that underpin their choice for modelling trends and cycles.