Download or read book Essays on Risk and Uncertainty in Economics and Finance written by Jorge Mario Uribe Gil and published by Ed. Universidad de Cantabria. This book was released on 2022-11-22 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book adds to the resolution of two problems in finance and economics: i) what is macro-financial uncertainty? : How to measure it? How is it different from risk? How important is it for the financial markets? And ii) what sort of asymmetries underlie financial risk and uncertainty propagation across the global financial markets? That is, how risk and uncertainty change according to factors such as market states or market participants. In Chapter 2, which is entitled “Momentum Uncertainties”, the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the abnormal returns of a momentum trading strategy in the stock market is studies. We show that high levels of uncertainty in the economy impact negatively and significantly the returns of a portfolio of stocks that consist of buying past winners and selling past losers. High uncertainty reduces below zero the abnormal returns of momentum, extinguishes the Sharpe ratio of the momentum strategy, while increases the probability of momentum crashes both by increasing the skewness and the kurtosis of the momentum return distribution. Uncertainty acts as an economic regime that underlies abrupt changes over time of the returns generated by momentum strategies. In Chapter 3, “Measuring Uncertainty in the Stock Market”, a new index for measuring stock market uncertainty on a daily basis is proposed. The index considers the inherent differentiation between uncertainty and the common variations between the series. The second contribution of chapter 3 is to show how this financial uncertainty index can also serve as an indicator of macroeconomic uncertainty. Finally, the dynamic relationship between uncertainty and the series of consumption, interest rates, production and stock market prices, among others, is analized. In chapter 4: “Uncertainty, Systemic Shocks and the Global Banking Sector: Has the Crisis Modified their Relationship?” we explore the stability of systemic risk and uncertainty propagation among financial institutions in the global economy, and show that it has remained stable over the last decade. Additionally, a new simple tool for measuring the resilience of financial institutions to these systemic shocks is provided. We examine the characteristics and stability of systemic risk and uncertainty, in relation to the dynamics of the banking sector stock returns. This sort of evidence is supportive of past claims, made in the field of macroeconomics, which hold that during the global financial crisis the financial system may have faced stronger versions of traditional shocks rather than a new type of shock. In chapter 5, “Currency downside risk, liquidity, and financial stability”, downside risk propagation across global currency markets and the ways in which it is related to liquidity is analyzed. Two primary contributions to the literature follow. First, tail-spillovers between currencies in the global FX market are estimated. This index is easy to build and does not require intraday data, which constitutes an important advantage. Second, we show that turnover is related to risk spillovers in global currency markets. Chapter 6 is entitled “Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 Stock Markets: A VAR-Quantile Analysis”. This chapter contributes to the studies of contagion, market integration and cross-border spillovers during both regular and crisis episodes by carrying out a multivariate quantile analysis. It focuses on Latin American stock markets, which have been characterized by a highly positive dynamic in recent decades, in terms of market capitalization and liquidity ratios, after a far-reaching process of market liberalization and reforms to pension funds across the continent during the 80s and 90s. We document smaller dependences between the LA markets and the US market than those between the US and the developed economies, especially in the highest and lowest quantiles.

Download or read book Essays in Honor of Subal Kumbhakar written by Christopher F. Parmeter and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2024-04-05 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is the editor’s distinct privilege to gather this collection of papers that honors Subhal Kumbhakar’s many accomplishments, drawing further attention to the various areas of scholarship that he has touched.

Download or read book Rationalised panics The consequences of strategic uncertainty during financial crisis written by Tijmen Roderik Danie͏̈ls and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2009 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays in Dynamic General Equilibrium Theory written by Alessandro Citanna and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-01-11 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the area of dynamic economics, David Cass’s work has spawned a number of important lines of research, including the study of dynamic general equilibrium theory, the concept of sunspot equilibria, and general equilibrium theory when markets are incomplete. Based on these contributions, this volume contains new developments in the field, written by Cass's students and co-authors.

Download or read book On technology uncertainty and economic growth written by Koen G. Berden and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2006 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices written by B.R. Munier and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2012-04-24 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization’s oversimplified faith in free markets.The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds – professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations – the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide.

Download or read book Africa s Wellbeing in an Uncertain World written by Vusi Gumede and published by Jonathan Ball Publishers. This book was released on 2020-11-09 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world remains uncertain. Africa is fragile. Many issues remain unresolved and the African, and global, situation is worsening. South Africa has been at the crossroads for long enough. There can be no more delays, the time has come to address the many critical issues. In Africa's Wellbeing in an Uncertain World, Vusi Gumede discusses these critical issues about Africa, with specific focus on South Africa. He has revisited opinion articles and blogs he has been writing since the mid-2000s and taken his ideas and arguments, together with his deliberations on the recent changes globally and in Africa, and presented them in this thought-provoking book. While taking into account what others have said about similar issues, this is an attempt to get us to talk about these challenges, the important issues and fundamental problems, with a view to finding solutions. The future of the African continent could be bright if all the efforts that are being pursued for the improved wellbeing of Africans succeed. But, as Vusi Gumede reflects in this book, if South Africa is to achieve the society envisaged in the Constitution, then all South Africans, whatever the colour of their skin, have an important role to play.

Download or read book Keynes and the Market written by Justyn Walsh and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-11-03 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Keynes and the Market is an entertaining guide to John Maynard Keynes– amazing stock market success. It weaves the economist's value investing tenets around key events in his richly lived life. This timely book identifies what modern masters of the market have taken from Keynes and used in their own investing styles–and what you too can learn from one of the greatest economic thinkers of the twentieth century. If you want to profit in today's turbulent stock market the techniques outlined here will put you in a better position to succeed.

Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

Download or read book The Economics of Fintech written by Sahoko Kaji and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-20 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of academic lectures given on fintech, a topic that has been written about extensively but only from a business or technological point of view. In contrast to other publications on the subject, this book shows the reader how fintech should be understood in relation to economics, financial theory, policy, and law. It provides introductory explanations on fintech-related concepts and instruments such as blockchains, crypto assets, machine learning, high-frequency trading, and AI. The collected lectures also point to surrounding issues including start-ups, monetary policy, asset management, cyber and other security, and stability of financial systems. The authors include professors, a former central bank official, current officials at Japan’s Financial Services Authority, a lawyer, the former dean of the Asian Development Bank Institute, and private sector professionals at the frontline of fintech. The book is most suitable for those both within and outside of academia who are beginning to learn about fintech and wish to successfully take part in the revolution that is certain to have wide-ranging effects on our economy and society.

Download or read book Three Essays on the Dynamics of Informal Institutional Change in Sub Saharan Africa written by Benjamin D. Linkow and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Financial Analytics written by Pascal Alphonse and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book How Will Capitalism End written by Wolfgang Streeck and published by Verso Books. This book was released on 2016-11-01 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The provocative political thinker asks if it will be with a bang or a whimper In How Will Capitalism End? the acclaimed analyst of contemporary politics and economics Wolfgang Streeck argues that capitalism is now in a critical condition. Growth is giving way to secular stagnation; inequality is leading to instability; and confidence in the capitalist money economy has all but evaporated. Capitalism’s shotgun marriage with democracy since 1945 is breaking up as the regulatory institutions restraining its advance have collapsed, and after the final victory of capitalism over its enemies no political agency capable of rebuilding them is in sight. The capitalist system is stricken with at least five worsening disorders for which no cure is at hand: declining growth, oligarchy, starvation of the public sphere, corruption and international anarchy. In this arresting book Wolfgang Streeck asks whether we are witnessing a long and painful period of cumulative decay: of intensifying frictions, of fragility and uncertainty, and of a steady succession of “normal accidents.”

Download or read book Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails written by Andrew C. Harvey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-04-22 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility of financial returns changes over time and, for the last thirty years, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have provided the principal means of analyzing, modeling and monitoring such changes. Taking into account that financial returns typically exhibit heavy tails - that is, extreme values can occur from time to time - Andrew Harvey's new book shows how a small but radical change in the way GARCH models are formulated leads to a resolution of many of the theoretical problems inherent in the statistical theory. The approach can also be applied to other aspects of volatility. The more general class of Dynamic Conditional Score models extends to robust modeling of outliers in the levels of time series and to the treatment of time-varying relationships. The statistical theory draws on basic principles of maximum likelihood estimation and, by doing so, leads to an elegant and unified treatment of nonlinear time-series modeling.

Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 634 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School