Download or read book Essays on the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Long run Risks written by Henrik Hasseltoft and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Nisha Aroskar and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: This dissertation contributes to the study of the term structure of interest rates by addressing some of the gaps in this literature. The term structure is an important channel of monetary transmission. It also contains information about the intertemporal choices made by economic agents. The expectations Hypothesis is the primary explanation in economics that links short term interest rates to long term interest rates. In the first essay I extend the literature by examining the expectations hypothesis in the newly developed financial markets. I find that the expectations theory is not rejected in these markets. This evidence is in sharp contrast to the evidence earlier presented for industrialized countries. Further, contrary to the simple expectations theory, the term premium has high persistence, which is reflected in significantly autoregressive error terms. The evidence also supports the longstanding suggestion that the term premium could be related to the liquidity in the economy. The next essay investigates the forecasting ability of the term spread for future output growth. There appears to be a sharp decline in the predictive power of the term spread in countries that have adopted monetary policy with a stronger response to inflation. To explore the underlying economic reasons for these findings, I explicitly model the information content of the term spread for future output growth based on a structural model. Model calibrations suggest that the forecasting ability of the term spread changes with a change in the persistence and the variance of the underlying economic shocks and in the monetary policy preferences. The last essay focuses on the term structure as a link between short term and long term interest rates in macroeconomic models. I integrate the New Keynesian model and the model of the term structure based on the Intertemporal Consumption Asset Pricing Model. This is a more plausible description of the economy compared to the earlier models. In this model, output responds to an interest rate that includes a time varying term premium which, in turn is associated with economic agents expectations about the future economic variables. Empirical results provide confidence for future research in this direction.
Download or read book Essays on the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Long Run Variance of Stock Returns written by Ting Wu and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: In Chapter 1, I propose a term structure model based on risk-sensitive preferences. Following Hansen and Sargent (2008), I model a risk-sensitive consumer who shows aversion to uncertainties, and evaluates his utility using the max-min utility function. He considers three types of uncertainties: (a) uncertainty of future states; (b) uncertainty about current states; and (c) uncertainty about the model generating the data. I use a parameter to represent his aversion to the each uncertainty. The max-min utility function implies multiplicative adjustments to the standard pricing kernel.
Download or read book Essays on the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Lance Alexander Fisher and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Wei Shi and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on Asset Pricing written by Ji Zhou and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays. In the first essay, we derive a pricing kernel for a continuous-time long-run risks (LRR) economy with the Epstein-Zin utility function, non-i.i.d. consumption growth, and incomplete information about fundamentals. In equilibrium, agents learn about latent conditional mean of consumption growth and price equity simultaneously. Since the pricing kernel is endogenous and affected by learning, uncertainty about unobserved conditional mean of consumption growth affects risk prices corresponding to shocks in both consumption and dividend growth. We demonstrate our analytical results by applying the model to a profitability-based equity valuation model proposed by Pastor and Veronesi (2003). Calibration of the model demonstrates that the LRR model with learning has potential to fit levels of price-dividend ratios of the S&P 500 Composite Index, equity premium, and the short term interest rate simultaneously. In essay two, we extend the LRR model with incomplete information proposed in essay one by incorporating inflation and applying the model to the valuation of nominal term structure of interest rate. We estimate the processes of state variables and latent variables using a Bayesian Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method. In the estimation, we rely only on the information in macro-economic data on aggregate consumption growth, inflation, and dividend growth on S&P 500 Composite Index. In this way, parameters and latent state variables are estimated outside the model. Estimation results suggest a mildly persistent LRR component. However, both real and nominal yield curves implied by the LRR model are downward-sloping. We show that the inverted yield curve is due to a negative risk premium, which is determined jointly by covariance between shocks in state variables and shocks in the nominal pricing kernel. Incorporating learning about the mean consumption growth flattens the yield curve but does not change the sign of the yield curve slope. In essay three, we study the critique of the conditional affine factor asset pricing models proposed by Lewellen and Nagel (2006). They suggest that two important economic constraints are overlooked in cross-sectional regressions. First, the estimated unconditional slope associated with a risk factor should equal the average risk premium on that factor in a conditional model. Second, the estimated slope associated with the product of a risk factor and an instrument should be equal to the covariance of the factor risk premium with the instrument. We test both constraints on conditional models with time-varying betas and our results confirm the proposition. Also, from the functional relationship between conditional and unconditional betas, we identify an unconditional constraint on unconditional betas for time-varying beta models and develop a testing procedure subject to this constraint. We show that imposing this unconditional constraint changes estimates of unconditional betas and risk prices significantly.
Download or read book Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short Run and Long Run Risks written by Olesya V. Grishchenko and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bond returns are time-varying and predictable. What economic forces drive this variation? To answer this long-standing question, we propose a consumption-based model with recursive preferences, long-run risks, and inflation non-neutrality. Our model offers two important insights. First, our model matches well the post-1990 nominal upward-sloping U.S. Treasury yield curve. Second, consistent with our model's implication, variance risk premium based on the U.S. interest rate derivatives data emerges as a strong predictor for short-horizon Treasury excess returns, above and beyond the predictive power of other popular factors. In the model equilibrium, the variance risk premium is related to the short-run risks in the economy, while standard forward-rate-based factors are associated with long-run risks in the economy.
Download or read book Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Rajna Gibson and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2010 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates provides a comprehensive review of the continuous-time modeling techniques of the term structure applicable to value and hedge default-free bonds and other interest rate derivatives.
Download or read book Long Run Risks in the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Taeyoung Doh and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using Bayesian methods, this paper estimates a model in which persistent fluctuations in expected consumption growth, expected inflation, and their timevarying volatility determine asset price variation. The analysis of the U.S. nominal term structure data from 1953 to 2006 shows that i) agents dislike high uncertainty and demand compensation for volatility risks, ii) the time variation of the term premium is driven by the compensation for fluctuating inflation volatility, and iii) estimates of risk factors are broadly consistent with survey data evidence.
Download or read book Essays on the Term Structure of Interest Rates Monetary Policy and Business Cycle written by Tong-hŏn Kim and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays in Financial Economics written by Robert Alan Jarrow and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on the term structure of interest rates written by Peter R. MacMillan and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates Across Countries written by Stan Maes and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2010-06 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An understanding of the stochastic behaviour of yields is important for the conduct of monetary policy, the financing of public debt, the expectations of real economic activity and inflation, the risk management of a portfolio of securities, and the valuation of interest rate derivatives. It is, therefore, not surprising that the study of yield curve dynamics is occupying such a prominent and unique place in theoretical and empirical macroeconomics and finance.
Download or read book Three Essays on the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Hyoung-Seok Lim and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Three chapters focus on the term structure of interest rates. Most Central Banks have recently employed the short term interest rate as a monetary policy instrument in the form of either a Taylor rule or Inflation Targeting. Under this framework, the term structure of interest rates play an important role in determining the effectiveness of monetary policy because economic decisions are based on long-term interest rates. The first two chapters discuss the role of the term structure of interest rates in explaining the behavior of exchange rates. Chapter 1 constructs a theoretical model and Chapter 2 provides an empirical result to supporting this theoretical prediction. Chapter 3 directly estimates the term structure of interest rates from Korean data. The estimated yield curves are used to extract market expectations about the future interest rates path which is essential for forward-looking monetary policy.
Download or read book Long Run Risk in the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Magnus Hyll and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Shuo Cao and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
