Download or read book Essays on the Prediction Process written by Frank B. Knight and published by IMS. This book was released on 1981 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on the Prediction Process written by Frank B. Knight and published by . This book was released on 2008* with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This e-book is the product of Project Euclid and its mission to advance scholarly communication in the field of theoretical and applied mathematics and statistics. Project Euclid was developed and deployed by the Cornell University Library and is jointly managed by Cornell and the Duke University Press.
Download or read book An Essay on the Theory of Economic Prediction written by Lawrence Robert Klein and published by Chicago : Markham Publishing Company. This book was released on 1970 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Understanding and Prediction written by S. Nowak and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the more characteristic features of contemporary sociology is an increasing interest in theories. More and more theories are being developed in various areas of social investigation; we observe also an increasing number of verificational studies aimed primarily toward the verification of various theories. The essays presented in this volume deal with theories too, but they approach this problem from a methodological perspective. There fore it seems worthwhile in the preface to this volume to make a kind of general declaration about the author's aims and his approach to the subject of his interest, and about his view of the role of methodological reflection in the development of sciences. First let me say what methodology cannot do. It cannot be a substitute for the formulation of substantive theories, nor can it substitute for the empirical studies which confirm or reject such theories. Therefore its impact upon the development of any science, including the social sciences, is only indirect, by its undertaking the analysis of research tools and rules of scientific procedures. It can also propose certain standards for scientific procedures, but the application of these standards is the domain of substan tive researchers, and it is the substantive researchers who ultimately develop any science. Nevertheless the potential impact-of methodological reflection, even if only indirect, should not be underestimated.
Download or read book Prediction written by Daniel R. Sarewitz and published by . This book was released on 2000-04 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based upon ten case studies, Prediction explores how science-based predictions guide policy making and what this means in terms of global warming, biogenetically modifying organisms and polluting the environment with chemicals.
Download or read book Essays in Corporate Prediction Markets written by Majid Karimi and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Personal subjective opinions are one of the most important assets in management. Prediction markets are mechanisms that can be deployed to elicit and aggregate a group of people's opinions regarding the outcome of future events at any point in time. Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets where security values are tied to the outcome of future events. Prediction markets are systematically designed in a way that their market prices capture the crowd's consensus about the probability of a future event. Corporations harness internal prediction markets for managerial decision making and business forecasting. Prediction markets are traditionally designed for large and diverse populations, two properties that are not often displayed in corporate settings. Therefore special considerations must be given to prediction markets used in corporations. Our first contribution in this thesis is in addressing the issue of diversity, in the sense of risk preferences, in corporate prediction markets. We study prediction markets in the presence of risk averse or risk seeking agents that have unknown risk preferences. We show that such agents' behavior is not desirable for the purpose of information aggregation. We then characterize the agents' behavior with respect to prediction market parameters and offer a systematic method to market organizers that fine tunes market parameters so at to best mitigate the impact of a pool agents' risk-preferences. Our Second contribution in this thesis is in recommending prediction market mechanisms in different settings. There are many prediction market mechanisms with various advantages and weaknesses. The choice of a market mechanism can heavily affect the market accuracy and in turn, the success of a managerial decision, or a forecast based on prediction markets' prices. Using trade data from two real-world prediction markets, we study the two main types of prediction markets mechanism and provide the much-needed insight as to what market mechanism to choose in various situations.
Download or read book Foundations of the Prediction Process written by Frank B. Knight and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a unified treatment of the prediction process approach to continuous time stochastic processes. The underling idea is that there are two kinds of time: stationary physical time and the moving observer's time. By developing this theme, the author develops a theory of stochastic processes whereby two processes are considered which coexist on the same probability space. In this way, the observer' process is strongly Markovian. Consequently, any measurable stochastic process of a real parameter may be regarded as a homogeneous strong Markov process in an appropriate setting. This leads to a unifying principle for the representation of general processes in terms of martingales which facilitates the prediction of their properties. While the ideas are advanced, the methods are reasonable elementary and should be accessible to readers with basic knowledge of measure theory, functional analysis, stochastic integration, and probability on the level of the convergence theorem for positive super-martingales.
Download or read book Time Predictions written by Torleif Halkjelsvik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-28 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
Download or read book Predicting Species Occurrences written by J. Michael Scott and published by Island Press. This book was released on 2002-02 with total page 940 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predictions about where different species are, where they are not, and how they move across a landscape or respond to human activities -- if timber is harvested, for instance, or stream flow altered -- are important aspects of the work of wildlife biologists, land managers, and the agencies and policymakers that govern natural resources. Despite the increased use and importance of model predictions, these predictions are seldom tested and have unknown levels of accuracy.Predicting Species Occurrences addresses those concerns, highlighting for managers and researchers the strengths and weaknesses of current approaches, as well as the magnitude of the research required to improve or test predictions of currently used models. The book is an outgrowth of an international symposium held in October 1999 that brought together scientists and researchers at the forefront of efforts to process information about species at different spatial and temporal scales. It is a comprehensive reference that offers an exhaustive treatment of the subject, with 65 chapters by leading experts from around the world that: review the history of the theory and practice of modeling and present a standard terminology examine temporal and spatial scales in terms of their influence on patterns and processes of species distribution offer detailed discussions of state-of-the-art modeling tools and descriptions of methods for assessing model accuracy discuss how to predict species presence and abundance present examples of how spatially explicit data on demographics can provide important information for managers An introductory chapter by Michael A. Huston examines the ecological context in which predictions of species occurrences are made, and a concluding chapter by John A. Wiens offers an insightful review and synthesis of the topics examined along with guidance for future directions and cautions regarding misuse of models. Other contributors include Michael P. Austin, Barry R. Noon, Alan H. Fielding, Michael Goodchild, Brian A. Maurer, John T. Rotenberry, Paul Angermeier, Pierre R. Vernier, and more than a hundred others.Predicting Species Occurrences offers important new information about many of the topics raised in the seminal volume Wildlife 2000 (University of Wisconsin Press, 1986) and will be the standard reference on this subject for years to come. Its state-of-the-art assessment will play a key role in guiding the continued development and application of tools for making accurate predictions and is an indispensable volume for anyone engaged in species management or conservation.
Download or read book Validation of Score Meaning for the Next Generation of Assessments written by Kadriye Ercikan and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2017-03-27 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite developments in research and practice on using examinee response process data in assessment design, the use of such data in test validation is rare. Validation of Score Meaning in the Next Generation of Assessments Using Response Processes highlights the importance of validity evidence based on response processes and provides guidance to measurement researchers and practitioners in creating and using such evidence as a regular part of the assessment validation process. Response processes refer to approaches and behaviors of examinees when they interpret assessment situations and formulate and generate solutions as revealed through verbalizations, eye movements, response times, or computer clicks. Such response process data can provide information about the extent to which items and tasks engage examinees in the intended ways. With contributions from the top researchers in the field of assessment, this volume includes chapters that focus on methodological issues and on applications across multiple contexts of assessment interpretation and use. In Part I of this book, contributors discuss the framing of validity as an evidence-based argument for the interpretation of the meaning of test scores, the specifics of different methods of response process data collection and analysis, and the use of response process data relative to issues of validation as highlighted in the joint standards on testing. In Part II, chapter authors offer examples that illustrate the use of response process data in assessment validation. These cases are provided specifically to address issues related to the analysis and interpretation of performance on assessments of complex cognition, assessments designed to inform classroom learning and instruction, and assessments intended for students with varying cultural and linguistic backgrounds. The Open Access version of this book, available at http://www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.
Download or read book Pragmatic Idealism and Scientific Prediction written by Amanda Guillán and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-30 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph analyzes Nicholas Rescher’s system of pragmatic idealism. It also looks at his approach to prediction in science. Coverage highlights a prominent contribution to a central topic in the philosophy and methodology of science. The author offers a full characterization of Rescher’s system of philosophy. She presents readers with a comprehensive philosophico-methodological analysis of this important work. Her research takes into account different thematic realms: semantic, logical, epistemological, methodological, ontological, axiological, and ethical. The book features three, thematic-parts: I) General Coordinates, Semantic Features and Logical Components of Scientific Prediction; II) Predictive Knowledge and Predictive Processes in Rescher’s Methodological Pragmatism; and III) From Reality to Values: Ontological Features, Axiological Elements, and Ethical Aspects of Scientific Prediction. This insightful analysis offers a critical reconstruction of Rescher’s philosophy. The system he created is often characterized as pragmatic idealism that is open to some realist elements. He is a prominent representative of contemporary pragmatism who has made a great deal of contributions to the study of this topic. This area is crucial for science and it has been little considered in the philosophy of science.
Download or read book The Clinical Prediction of Violent Behavior written by John Monahan and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 1995 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As therapists are increasingly held legally responsible for failing to predict their client's violent behaviour, the pressure to know and forecast behaviour - never the chosen domain of clinicians - has risen. Worries about potential law suits invade the therapeutic setting. The volume enables therapists to master the proven signs of potentially harmful acts, so that they can get back to the work they were trained for: helping people.
Download or read book Computational Linguistics and Intelligent Text Processing written by Alexander Gelbukh and published by Springer. This book was released on 2009-02-17 with total page 619 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: th CICLing 2009 markedthe 10 anniversary of the Annual Conference on Intel- gent Text Processing and Computational Linguistics. The CICLing conferences provide a wide-scope forum for the discussion of the art and craft of natural language processing research as well as the best practices in its applications. This volume contains ?ve invited papers and the regular papers accepted for oral presentation at the conference. The papers accepted for poster presentation were published in a special issue of another journal (see the website for more information). Since 2001, the proceedings of CICLing conferences have been published in Springer’s Lecture Notes in Computer Science series, as volumes 2004, 2276, 2588, 2945, 3406, 3878, 4394, and 4919. This volume has been structured into 12 sections: – Trends and Opportunities – Linguistic Knowledge Representation Formalisms – Corpus Analysis and Lexical Resources – Extraction of Lexical Knowledge – Morphology and Parsing – Semantics – Word Sense Disambiguation – Machine Translation and Multilinguism – Information Extraction and Text Mining – Information Retrieval and Text Comparison – Text Summarization – Applications to the Humanities A total of 167 papers by 392 authors from 40 countries were submitted for evaluation by the International Program Committee, see Tables 1 and 2. This volume contains revised versions of 44 papers, by 120 authors, selected for oral presentation; the acceptance rate was 26. 3%.
Download or read book Macro Level Learning through Massive Open Online Courses MOOCs Strategies and Predictions for the Future written by McKay, Elspeth and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2015-03-31 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To some in academia, Massive Open Online Courses are a paradigm shift in online education, while others perceive them as a threat to traditional styles of pedagogy. In this regard, the time-honored model of the university lecture is seen as being a potential casualty of the rise of MOOCs. Macro-Level Learning through Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs): Strategies and Predictions for the Future provides insight into the emerging phenomenon of MOOCs as a design manual for the course designer with a collection of chapters that deal with all facets of the MOOC debate. Industry training developers, corporate trainers, educators, post graduate students, and others will benefit from the information provided in this book.
Download or read book Law and Legal Process written by Matthew Dyson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-07-25 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of papers from the Twentieth British Legal History Conference explores the relationship between substantive law and the way in which it actually worked. Instead of looking at what the courts said they were doing, it is concerned more with the reality of what was happening. To that end, the authors use a wide range of sources, from court records to merchants' diaries and lawyers' letters. The way in which the sources are used reflects the possibilities of legal historical research which are opening up in the twenty-first century, as large databases and digitised images – and even online auction sites – make it a practical possibility to do work at a level which was almost unthinkable only a short time ago.
Download or read book A Study of Expertise in Essay Scoring written by Edward W. Wolfe and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Computational Models of Argument written by H. Prakken and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2020-09-25 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The investigation of computational models of argument is a rich and fascinating interdisciplinary research field with two ultimate aims: the theoretical goal of understanding argumentation as a cognitive phenomenon by modeling it in computer programs, and the practical goal of supporting the development of computer-based systems able to engage in argumentation-related activities with human users or among themselves. The biennial International Conferences on Computational Models of Argument (COMMA) provide a dedicated forum for the presentation and discussion of the latest advancements in the field, and cover both basic research and innovative applications. This book presents the proceedings of COMMA 2020. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, COMMA 2020 was held as an online event on the originally scheduled dates of 8 -11 September 2020, organised by the University of Perugia, Italy. The book includes 28 full papers and 13 short papers selected from a total of 78 submissions, the abstracts of 3 invited talks and 13 demonstration abstracts. The interdisciplinary nature of the field is reflected, and contributions cover both theory and practice. Theoretical contributions include new formal models, the study of formal or computational properties of models, designs for implemented systems and experimental research. Practical papers include applications to medicine, law and criminal investigation, chatbots and online product reviews. The argument-mining trend from previous COMMA’s is continued, while an emerging trend this year is the use of argumentation for explainable AI. The book provided an overview of the latest work on computational models of argument, and will be of interest to all those working in the field.
