Download or read book Essays on Strategic Thinking and Trading Behaviors written by Hang Zhou and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strategic thinking pervades human interactions. In a complex world where the consequences are determined by the joint actions of related groups, it is natural and sometimes critical to anticipate the reactions of others and take those into account. The most well-developed theory of strategic interaction is the game theoretical notion of Nash equilibrium. In this model, equilibrium is defined as the collection of strategies such that every player maximizes the expected payoff, given the strategy of others. In addition, the epistemic game theory finds mutual knowledge of rationality to be a necessary condition for Nash equilibrium. However, experimental economics have documented much evidence which challenges Nash equilibrium as the best prediction of strategic interactions. In addition, behavioral game theorists have developed several structural non-equilibrium models that systematically deviate from Nash equilibrium. For instance, the level-k thinking model and the cognitive hierarchy model both assume players adjust their strategies through iterated best responses. Both models introduce levels of sophistication, characterized by the rounds of iterated reasoning, as a predictor of strategic interactions. Experiments suggest that in general, these models outperform Nash equilibrium in terms of predicting the outcome of strategic interactions. My dissertation focuses on understanding the effect of strategic sophistication in market environments. Namely, I study how trading behaviors are determined by participants' levels of reasoning with an emphasis on financial markets. The first chapter of my dissertation investigates the effect of strategic reasoning on financial markets with a level-k thinking framework. A level-k speculator performs k rounds of iterative reasoning to infer information from asset prices. In contrast to the rational expectations equilibrium, the level-k framework produces a unified theory of momentum and contrarian trading strategies. I discuss how the distribution of sophistication levels affects several market variables and sheds new light on empirical patterns such as : (1) overreaction of asset prices, (2) the excess volatility puzzle, and (3) the excessive trading volume puzzle. Moreover, I find the sufficient conditions that thelevel-k strategy converges to the rational expectation equilibrium. The second chapter is joint work with Andr ́es Carvajal. In this paper, we incorporate the insight from level-k literature to a general equilibrium setting of financial markets. We ask the question whether suffcient sophistication on the reasoning of financial traders lead to rational expectations equilibrium and provides an answer. We study a simple exchange economy with complete markets and asymmetric information. Traders are classified as fundamentalists, who know the true probability distributions of random shocks, or speculators, who try to infer the true probabilities from asset prices. We characterize the necessary conditions on convergence to rational expectations equilibrium for some specific utility functions and discuss the general case. Our results are that: (1) convergence to rational expectations requires that speculators have less market impact than fundamentalists; (2) convergence, when it takes place, occurs in an oscillating manner; and (3) asset prices can be more volatile than at rational expectations equilibrium when speculators display low sophistication. The third chapter is joint work with Burkhard Schipper. In this paper, we consider the extension of level-k thinking to extensive-form games. Players may learn about their opponents' levels during the game because some information sets are not consistent with certain levels. In particular, for any information set reached, a level-k player attaches the maximum level-l thinking for l

Download or read book Essays on Trading Strategy written by Graham L Giller and published by Giller Investments (New Jersey), LLC. This book was released on 2021-12-31 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following on from his Adventures in Financial Data Science, Graham Giller, one of Wall Streets original data scientists, collects together a set of pieces on optimal trading strategy design. These address the key issue not answered in the first volume of the series on Financial Data Science, how to go from an alpha to a trade. The division of topics is shaped by what Graham calls "Peter Muller's Rule": the analysis of systems to predict prices and systems to trade from predictions should be separated. This makes trading strategy agnostic as to the origins of the information contained within the alpha and clarifies the analytical methodology developed.

Download or read book Strategic Behaviors and Market Outcomes written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis written by Sanjit Dhami and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020-01-02 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This fifth volume of The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis covers behavioral models of learning. It is an essential guide for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students seeking a concise and focused text on this important subject, and examines heuristics and biases in judgment and decision making, mental accounting, and behavioral finance and bounded rationality. This updated extract from Dhami's leading textbook allows the reader to pursue subsections of this vast and rapidly growing field and to tailor their reading to their specific interests in behavioral economics.

Download or read book Advances in Behavioral Economics written by Friedel Bolle and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is dedicated to Horst Todt who celebrated his seventieth an niversaryon March 14, 2000. All the contributors know Horst Todt personally and (with the exception of two younger co-authors) have accompanied his scientific career for sev eral years, some as his assistants, some as his colleagues at the Frankfurt or Hamburg University, some as fellow members in scientific societies. All who know him acknowledge inspiring conversations on a broad field of issues often reaching far beyond the scope of economics. Being friendly and entertaining and without exaggerated personal ambition he often initiated work which others completed. In particular the two editors of this volume experienced and enjoyed the stimulating atmosphere at his Chair of Economics at the Hamburg University. We like to remember these scientifically and personally fruitful years under the tutorship of Horst Todt. The editors would like to thank the contributors to this volume for their readiness to cooperate and for the promptness of their delivery.

Download or read book Affect in Social Thinking and Behavior written by Joseph P. Forgas and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The role of affect in how people think and behave in social situations has been a source of fascination to laymen and philosophers since time immemorial. Surprisingly, most of what we know about the role of feelings in social thinking and behavior has been discovered only during the last two decades. Affect in Social Thinking and Behavior reviews and integrates the most recent research and theories on this exciting topic, and features original contributions reviewing key areas of affect research from leading researchers active in the area. The book covers fundamental issues, such as the nature and relationship between affect and cognition, as well as chapters that deal with the cognitive antecedents of emotion, and the consequences of affect for social cognition and behavior. This volume offers a highly integrated and comprehensive coverage of this field, and is suitable as a core textbook in advanced courses dealing with the role of affect in social cognition and behavior.

Download or read book Strategic Theory for the 21st Century The Little Book on Big Strategy written by Harry R. Yarger and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2006 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Strategic Trading Asymmetric Information and Asset Pricing written by David John Peterson and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Innovation and Behavioral Strategy written by T. K. Das and published by IAP. This book was released on 2022-12-01 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral strategy continues to attract increasing research interest within the broader field of strategic management. Research in behavioral strategy has clear scope for development in tandem with such traditional streams of strategy research that involve economics, markets, resources, and technology. The key roles of psychology, organizational behavior, and behavioral decision making in the theory and practice of strategy have yet to be comprehensively grasped. Given that strategic thinking and strategic decision making are importantly concerned with human cognition, human decisions, and human behavior, it makes eminent sense to bring some balance in the strategy field by complementing the extant emphasis on the “objective” economics-based view with substantive attention to the “subjective” individual-oriented perspective. This calls for more focused inquiries into the role and nature of the individual strategy actors, and their cognitions and behaviors, in the strategy research enterprise. For the purposes of this book series, behavioral strategy would be broadly construed as covering all aspects of the role of the strategy maker in the entire strategy field. The scholarship relating to behavioral strategy is widely believed to be dispersed in diverse literatures. These existing contributions that relate to behavioral strategy within the overall field of strategy has been known and perhaps valued by most scholars all along, but were not adequately appreciated or brought together as a coherent sub-field or as a distinct perspective of strategy. This book series on Research in Behavioral Strategy will cover the essential progress made thus far in this admittedly fragmented literature and elaborate upon fruitful streams of scholarship. More importantly, the book series will focus on providing a robust and comprehensive forum for the growing scholarship in behavioral strategy. In particular, the volumes in the series will cover new views of interdisciplinary theoretical frameworks and models (dealing with all behavioral aspects), significant practical problems of strategy formulation, implementation, and evaluation, and emerging areas of inquiry. The series will also include comprehensive empirical studies of selected segments of business, economic, industrial, government, and non-profit activities with potential for wider application of behavioral strategy. Through the ongoing release of focused topical titles, this book series will seek to disseminate theoretical insights and practical management information that will enable interested professionals to gain a rigorous and comprehensive understanding of the subject of behavioral strategy. Innovation and Behavioral Strategy contains contributions by leading scholars in the field of innovation with an interest in researching behavioral perspectives. The 9 chapters in this volume deal with a number of significant issues relating broadly to the behavioral aspects of innovation, covering topics such as emotional climate for catalyzing innovation, leadership in open innovation, environmental disruptions, collaborative communities, performance of small-scale entrepreneurs, supply chain innovation alliances, new partner selection for innovation, coopetition in networks, and public-private innovation alliances. The chapters include empirical as well as conceptual treatments of the selected topics, and collectively present a wide-ranging review of the noteworthy research perspectives on innovation and behavioral strategy.

Download or read book Three Essays on Trading Behavior written by Adam Daniel Clark-Joseph and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation analyzes trading behavior in financial markets from multiple perspectives. In chapter 1, "Exploratory Trading," I investigate the mechanisms underlying high-frequency traders' capacity to profitably anticipate price movements. I develop a model of how a trader could gather valuable private information by using her own orders in an exploratory manner to learn about market conditions. The model's predictions are borne out empirically, and I find that this "exploratory trading" model helps to resolve several central open questions about high-frequency trading. Chapters 2 and 3 focus on the trading behavior of individuals. Chapter 2, "Foundations of the Disposition Effect: Experimental Evidence," (co-authored with Johanna Mollerstrom), presents and analyzes results from a laboratory experiment intended to examine if and how "regret aversion"--Aversion to admitting mistakes--affects people's trading decisions. Although the experimental results resolve little about regret aversion specifically, they reveal some novel and unexpected effects, most importantly that subjects radically changed their trading decisions when they were compelled to devote a minimal amount of extra attention. In chapter 3, "Price Targets," I analyze how rational investors who privately observe information of indeterminate quality use prices to learn about whether or not their private information is valuable. I derive implications about trading behavior that not only help to explain a variety of empirical puzzles, but also generate several new testable predictions. Although these three essays differ considerably in methodology and focus, they all address the same basic issue of understanding the foundations of trading behavior.

Download or read book Three Essays on Market Structure and Trading Behavior written by Hao-Chen Liu and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Quantal Response Equilibrium written by Jacob K. Goeree and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantal Response Equilibrium presents a stochastic theory of games that unites probabilistic choice models developed in psychology and statistics with the Nash equilibrium approach of classical game theory. Nash equilibrium assumes precise and perfect decision making in games, but human behavior is inherently stochastic and people realize that the behavior of others is not perfectly predictable. In contrast, QRE models choice behavior as probabilistic and extends classical game theory into a more realistic and useful framework with broad applications for economics, political science, management, and other social sciences. Quantal Response Equilibrium spans the range from basic theoretical foundations to examples of how the principles yield useful predictions and insights in strategic settings, including voting, bargaining, auctions, public goods provision, and more. The approach provides a natural framework for estimating the effects of behavioral factors like altruism, reciprocity, risk aversion, judgment fallacies, and impatience. New theoretical results push the frontiers of models that include heterogeneity, learning, and well-specified behavioral modifications of rational choice and rational expectations. The empirical relevance of the theory is enhanced by discussion of data from controlled laboratory experiments, along with a detailed users' guide for estimation techniques. Quantal Response Equilibrium makes pioneering game-theoretic methods and interdisciplinary applications available to a wide audience.

Download or read book Deep Dive written by Rich Horwath and published by Greenleaf Book Group. This book was released on 2009-08 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Get competitive by learning to think strategically.The inability to set good strategy can sink a company¿and a leader¿s career. A recent Wall Street Journal study revealed that the most sought-after executive skill is strategic thinking, but only three out of ten managers have this skill set.Horwath explains the three keys to strategic thinking, breaks them down into simple, attainable skills, and gives you practical tools to apply them every day, providing managers with a clear path to mastery of the three disciplines: 1. Acumen¿generate critical insights through a step-by-step evaluation of your business and its environment2. Allocation¿focus your limited resources through strategic trade-offs 3. Action¿implement a system to guarantee effective execution of strategy at all levels of your organization Based on new research with senior executives from 150 companies and the author¿s experience as a thought-leading strategist, Deep Dive is the first book to focus on the most important level of strategy¿you. Armed with this knowledge and dozens of effective tools, you can become a truly strategic leader for your organization.--Rich Horwath is the president of the Strategic Thinking Institute, a former chief strategy officer, and professor of strategy at the Lake Forest Graduate School of Management. As a thought-leading strategist, he has worked with such giants as Adidas, Amgen, and Pfizer. He is the author of four books and more than fifty articles on strategic thinking and has been profiled in business publications around the world, including Investor¿s Business Daily.

Download or read book Strategic Trade Policy and the New International Economics written by Paul R. Krugman and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1986 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume of original essays brings the practical world of trade policy and of government and business strategy together with the world of academic trade theory. It focuses in particular on the impact of changes in the international trade environment and on how new developments and theory can guide our trade policy.Contents: New Thinking about Trade Policy, Paul Krugman (Sloan School of Management, MIT). Rationales for Strategic Trade and Industrial Policy, James A. Brander (University of British Columbia). Strategic Export Promotion: A Critique, Gene M. Grossman (Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University). Government Policy and the Dynamics of International Competition in High Technology, Michael Borrus, Laura d'Andrea Tyson, and John Zysman (all at the University of California, Berkeley). What Should Trade Policy Target? Barbara Spencer (University of British Columbia). Credit Policy and International Competition, Jonathan Eaton (University of Virginia). Industrial Policy: An Overview, Geoffrey Carliner (National Bureau of Economic Research). Japan's Industrial Strategy, Kozo Yamamura (University of Washington). U.S. Trade and Industrial Policy, William R. Cline (Institute for International Economics). Strategic Behavior and Trade Policy, Alvin K. Klevorick (Yale University) and William Branson (Princeton University). The New Political Economy of Trade Policy, J. David Richardson, (University of Wisconsin). Trade Policy: An Agenda for Research, Avinash K. Dixit (Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University).Paul Krugman is Professor of Economics at MIT. A former member of the staff of the Council of Economic Advisers, Krugman is also coauthor, with Elhanan Helpman, of Market Structure and Foreign Trade (MIT Press 1985).

Download or read book Essays on Strategic Trading Asymmetric Information and Asset Pricing written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on trading behavior in financial markets and economic growth written by Wen-chieh Lei and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Strategic Analysis Of Financial Markets The In 2 Volumes written by Steven D Moffitt and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2017-03-24 with total page 1119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 1 of 'The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets,' — Framework, is premised on the belief that markets can be understood only by dropping the assumptions of rationality and efficient markets in their extreme forms, and showing that markets still have an inherent order and inherent logic. But that order results primarily from the 'predictable irrationality' of investors, as well as from people's uncoordinated attempts to profit. The market patterns that result do not rely on rationality or efficiency.A framework is developed for understanding financial markets using a combination of psychology, statistics, game and gambling analysis, market history and the author's experience. It expresses analytically how professional investors and traders think about markets — as games in which other participants employ inferior, partially predictable strategies. Those strategies' interactions can be toxic and lead to booms, bubbles, busts and crashes, or can be less dramatic, leading to various patterns that are mistakenly called 'market inefficiencies' and 'stylized facts.'A logical case is constructed, starting from two foundations, the psychology of human decision making and the 'Fundamental Laws of Gambling.' Applying the Fundamental Laws to trading leads to the idea of 'gambling rationality' (grationality), replacing the efficient market's concept of 'rationality.' By classifying things that are likely to have semi-predictable price impacts (price 'distorters'), one can identify, explore through data analysis, and create winning trading ideas and systems. A structured way of doing all this is proposed: the six-step 'Strategic Analysis of Market Method.' Examples are given in this and Volume 2.Volume 2 of 'The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets' — Trading System Analytics, continues the development of Volume 1 by introducing tools and techniques for developing trading systems and by illustrating them using real markets. The difference between these two Volumes and the rest of the literature is its rigor. It describes trading as a form of gambling that when properly executed, is quite logical, and is well known to professional gamblers and analytical traders.But even those elites might be surprised at the extent to which quantitative methods have been justified and applied, including a life cycle theory of trading systems. Apart from a few sections that develop background material, Volume 2 creates from scratch a trading system for Eurodollar futures using principles of the Strategic Analysis of Markets Method (SAMM), a principled, step-by-step approach to developing profitable trading systems. It has an entire Chapter on mechanical methods for testing and improvement of trading systems, which transcends the rather unstructured and unsatisfactory 'backtesting' literature. It presents a breakout trend following system developed using factor models. It also presents a specific pairs trading system, and discusses its life cycle from an early, highly profitable period to its eventual demise. Recent developments in momentum trading and suggestions on improvements are also discussed.