Download or read book Essays on Normative Macro Finance written by Eduardo Davila-Ramirez and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of four essays that study normative questions on issues related to financial markets and the macroeconomy.

Download or read book Essays in Macro finance written by Jiwei Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of four essays in macro-finance, focusing on the cause and effect of asset prices, inequality, and welfare. In particular, these essays highlight the role of institutions and structural changes in shaping outcomes of asset markets and of the macro-economy. The two overarching objectives of these essays are to analyze mechanisms of asset price movements and to understand how these asset price movements affect the daily lives of people. The four chapters of this dissertation examine the implications of inertia and stock market non-participation for equity prices, risk sharing, and wealth inequality; causal effects of Chinese Communist Party's cadre promotion system on land prices in China; interconnection between homeownership and marriage; fiscal responses to income inequality shocks. The first chapter quantifies the general equilibrium effects of financial innovation that increases access to equity markets. I study an overlapping generations model with both idiosyncratic and aggregate risk, solved with machine learning techniques. A benchmark economy with limited stock market participation and rebalancing frictions matches the current dynamics of macro aggregates, equity and bond returns, as well as wealth and portfolio concentration. A counterfactual experiment shows how widespread adoption of target date funds would improve risk sharing, reduce inequality, and generate substantial welfare gains for households in the bottom 90% of wealth distribution. The equity premium drops from 6.4% to 1.7%, while the standard deviation of equity returns stabilizes from 21.9% to 14.6%. Welfare implications vary with risk aversion and age. In general, the bottom 90% benefit from improved access to equity markets and better risk sharing, while the top 10% su↵er losses in wealth accumulation. Outcomes are very close between an economy with target date funds and one without any participation costs or rebalancing frictions. The second chapter identifies the causal effect of the Chinese Communist Party's performance- based promotion system to the country's real estate boom from 2003 to 2015. City-level leaders prioritizing economic growth allocate land at discounted prices to industrial firms rather than housing developers. Our analysis reveals that personal connections with provincial superiors are crucial for promotion and hence affect local land and housing supply. When city leaders share the same hometown as newly appointed provincial leaders, their chances of promotion increase by 15%, and GDP performances no longer matters. This connection reduces the need for industrial land allocation, resulting in a higher residential land supply in the city. In addition, cities with leaders who have hometown connections experience significantly higher supplies of residential land, and housing price growth rates are also 5% lower in these cities. The third chapter studies the phenomenon of marriage house in China and its effects on demo- graphics and homeownership. We first show empirical evidence for the complementarity between marriage and homeownership: single males with a marriage house (a house where the newlywed can move into) have 70% higher odds of getting married compared to their counterparts who do not have a marriage house. In addition, the timing of home purchase exhibits a clear cut-o↵ around the time of marriage, with the probability of purchasing a house peaking 0-2 years before marriage and slumping immediately after the time of marriage. Moreover, in the cross section, county house prices and average age at marriage are highly correlated in both level and in growth rate. We then quantify the marriage related incentives for homeownership using a lifecycle consumption-savings model with housing demand and ownership-dependent marriage shocks. In a counterfactual world where the marriage-house complementarity is absent, 45% of households under age 45 would delay their home purchases. Removing the marriage house friction from the marriage market would have slowed down the rise in age at first marriage by 40% between 1995 and 2010. Our results suggest that policies directed at either housing affordability or demographics can have significant consequences for both marriage and housing markets in China. Using data on U.S. state and federal taxes and transfers over the last quarter century, the fourth chapter estimates a regression model that yields the marginal effect of any shift of market income share from one quintile to another on the entire post tax, post-transfer income distribution. We identify exogenous income distribution changes and account for reverse causality using instruments based on exposure to international trade shocks, international commodity price shocks and national industry demand shocks, as well as lagged endogenous variables, with controls for the level of income, the business cycle and demographics. We find attenuation initially increases in quintile rank, peaks at the middle quintile and then falls for higher income quintiles, consistent with median voter political economy theory and the Stiglitz Director's law. We also provide evidence of considerable and systematic spillover effects on quintiles neither gaining nor losing in the "experiments, " also favoring the middle quintile. "Voting" and "income insurance" coalition analyses are presented. We find a strong negative relationship between average real income and the degree to which taxes and transfers are heavily redistributive.

Download or read book Essays on Macro finance written by Pawel Zabczyk and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Macro finance Relationships written by Azamat Abdymomunov and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In my dissertation, I study relationships between macroeconomics and financial markets. In particular, I empirically investigate the links between key macroeconomic indicators, such as output, inflation, and the business cycle, and the pricing of financial assets. The dissertation comprises three essays. The first essay investigates how the entire term structure of interest rates is influenced by regime-shifts in monetary policy. To do so, we develop and estimate an arbitrage-free dynamic term-structure model which accounts for regime shifts in monetary policy, volatility, and the price of risk. Our results for U.S. data from 1985-2008 indicate that (i) the Fed's reaction to inflation has changed over time, switching between "more active" and "less active" monetary policy regimes, (ii) the yield curve in the "more active" regime was considerably more volatile than in the "less active" regime, and (iii) on average, the slope of the yield curve in the "more active" regime was steeper than in the "less active" regime. The steeper yield curve in the "more active" regime reflects higher term premia that result from the risk associated with a more volatile future short-term rate given a more sensitive response to inflation. The second essay examines the predictive power of the entire yield curve for aggregate output. Many studies find that yields for government bonds predict real economic activity. Most of these studies use the yield spread, defined as the difference between two yields of specific maturities, to predict output. In this paper, I propose a different approach that makes use of information contained in the entire term structure of U.S. Treasury yields to predict U.S. real GDP growth. My proposed dynamic yield curve model produces better out-of-sample forecasts of real GDP than those produced by the traditional yield spread model. The main source of this improvement is in the dynamic approach to constructing forecasts versus the direct forecasting approach used in the traditional yield spread model. Although the predictive power of yield curve for output is concentrated in the yield spread, there is also a gain from using information in the curvature factor for the real GDP growth prediction. The third essay investigates time variation in CAPM betas for book-to-market and momentum portfolios across stock market volatility regimes. For our analysis, we jointly model market and portfolio returns using a two-state Markov-switching process, with beta and the market risk premium allowed to vary between "low" and "high" volatility regimes. Our empirical findings suggest strong time variation in betas across volatility regimes in most of the cases for which the unconditional CAPM can be rejected. Although the regime-switching conditional CAPM can still be rejected in many cases, the time-varying betas help explain portfolio returns much better than the unconditional CAPM, especially when market volatility is high.

Download or read book Essays on Empirical Macro finance written by Luiza Antoun de Almeida and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Macro Finance and Monetary Policy written by Jesper Pedersen and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays in Macro Finance written by Lorenzo Bretscher and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays in Financial Regulation and Macro finance written by Juliane Begenau and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three separate contributions to the field of macroeconomics and finance. In the first chapter, I present a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model for the purpose of determining the optimal capital requirement for banks. Banks play two roles in this model: They contribute to the production of a final good and they provide liquidity in the form of bank debt, which households value. Banks also benefit from an implicit bailout guarantee from the government, which motivates them to take on excessive risk. I quantify this model using data from NIPA and the FDIC. Higher capital requirements lower risk-taking and increase consumption, but they also reduce the supply of bank debt. The reduction in bank debt leads to a lower interest rate on bank debt through a general equilibrium effect. This reduces the overall funding costs of banks and allows them to grow larger, which increases the capital stock and, consequently, production as well as consumption. The optimal capital requirement weighs the reduction in economic volatility and the increase in consumption against the reduction in liquidity. Welfare is maximized at 14%. The second chapter is coauthored with Juliana Salomao. Therein, we study how firms finance themselves over the business cycle. Using Compustat data, we first document that large firms substitute between debt and equity financing over the business cycle whereas small firms increase the amount of funds raised, using both debt and equity financing, in good times and reduce it in bad. We propose a mechanism that explains this empirical feature in a heterogeneous firm optimization model. Our mechanism is based on two main features. First, small firms are growing and therefore have higher funding needs compared to large firms. Second, the cost of debt financing depends endogenously on the default probability of the rm as well as on the recuperation value of the bond. This model can account for the cyclical relationships we see in the data. The third chapter is co-written with Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider. It studies US banks' exposure to interest rate and default risk. We exploit the factor structure in interest rates to represent many bank positions as portfolios in a small number of bonds. This approach makes exposures comparable across banks and across the business segments of an individual bank. We also propose a strategy to estimate exposure due to interest rate derivatives from regulatory data on notional and fair values together with the history of interest rates.

Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomics and International Finance written by Louphou Coulibaly and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can we best design macroeconomic policies to reduce financial fragility and improve social welfare? My research develops normative theories and uses quantitative analysis to improve our understanding of the potential benefits and welfare implications from regulatory measures in face of excessive risk taking in financial markets. This thesis is a collection of three essays in macroeconomics and international finance that helps guide the debate on the optimal design of macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies ahead of potential financial crises and during crises. The first chapter is a general introduction, while the remaining chapters form the core of the thesis. The second chapter studies the optimal design of financial safety nets. It shows that, in an economy where the government lacks commitment, an optimally designed financial safety net should cover only a subset of investors. An important result that can rationalize the prevalent limited coverage of safety nets, such as the lender of last resort facilities. The third chapter focuses on monetary policy in emerging market economies. This chapter first proposes a theory of why monetary policy is pro-cyclical in emerging economies. It shows that pro-cyclical monetary policy is in fact an optimal policy in an economy subject to the risk of financial crises associated with sudden stops of international capital inflows, and in which the government lacks commitment. The quantitative analysis then shows that macro-prudential policies in the form of capital controls have radical implications for the conduct of monetary policy, and are very effective at reducing both the occurrence and magnitude of financial crises. Finally, the fourth chapter design and analyze the effectiveness of country-specific macroprudential regulations as a macroeconomic stabilization tool in currency unions. The analysis lends support to the view that country-specific macroprudential policies should be set by a union-wide centralized authority, rather than at the national level.

Download or read book Essays in Macro Finance written by Andrea Ajello and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays in Financial Economics and Macro Finance written by Jonathan-Julian Federle and published by . This book was released on 2024 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays in Macro finance written by Annukka Ristiniemi and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays that examine the role of sovereign debt in the economy. The first of the essays explores the question of optimal debt through liquidity and finds that as long as debt is below a sustainability threshold, increasing debt is beneficial. Increasing debt levels encourages buyers to enter the market improving liquidity and lowering yields. The result is built by combining two strands of literature, market thinness and default probabilities in a unified search-theoretic model of over the counter traded debt. The model also predicts that liquidity and yields in smaller countries that are not able to issue much debt, suffer more from shocks to income. A panel VAR with data on Eurozone countries confirms this prediction. In the second chapter I present a search theoretic model of over-the-counter debt with quantitative easing that explains why interest rates fall more in some countries than others. The study is motivated by our finding that the higher rated a Eurozone country was, the more yields fell. Since the central banks purchase similar amounts in each Eurozone country, it cannot explain the difference in impact on yields. We explain the differential through two channels. Firstly, in markets for highly rated bonds, there are more preferred habitat investors and subsequently fewer sellers. Sellers therefore have a higher bargaining power and can negotiate a higher price. Those preferred habitat investors' have a less elastic demand for bonds, and wil continue to buy them even though it becomes harder to find sellers and their bargaining power diminishes. This excess demand due to market tightness has an additional positive impact on the price. Finally, central bank purchases initially improve liquidity, especially in high risk countries where the measure of buyers is small, but as it tapers the purchases, liquidity is reduced well below pre-purchase levels especially in those countries, that is the cost of quantitative easing. We estimate the share of preferred habitat investors in each Eurozone country from the ECB's Securities and Holdings Statistics and confirm the differential impact on yields with a panel VAR and an event study. The third chapter examines credit ratings and their impact on sovereign debt crises and yields. The results show that credit ratings are poor predictors of sovereign debt crises. A parsimonious model of fundamentals is better at predicting Emerging Market debt crises than credit ratings. Furthermore, rating changes tend to lag events significantly. Investors should therefore ignore rating changes given that they do not contain new information. Estimating the impact of rating changes on yields, we find evidence of contrary, yields react especially strongly to downgrades of non-investment grade debt. This can be due to regulatory constraints where a downgrade reduces the value of debt as a collateral.

Download or read book Essays on Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Agents and International Macro finance written by Uroš Herman and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays in Macro Finance written by David Ciaran Lindsay and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Chapter 1, I use a structural approach, to quantify the effect of land-use regulations on different age and education groups. I estimate a dynamic spatial structural equilibrium model of household location choice, local housing supply, and amenity supply. I show that in the long-run, removing land-use restrictions benefits all household groups and increases aggregate consumption by 7.1%. These consumption gains vary across households, less educated and younger households see increases in consumption about twice as large as more educated or older households. In contrast, in the short-run, removing land-use regulations reduces the consumption of older-richer homeowners while increasing the consumption of younger renters. In a counterfactual 1990-2019 transition, abolishing land-use regulations reduces the consumption of households born before the mid-1960s, while increasing consumption of more recent generations. In Chapter 2, co-authored with Mahyar Kargar, Benjamin Lester, Shuo Liu, Pierre-Olivier Weill, Diego Zuniga, we study liquidity conditions in the corporate bond market during the COVID-19 pandemic. We document that the cost of trading immediately via risky-principal trades dramatically increased at the height of the sell-off, forcing customers to shift toward slower agency trades. Exploiting eligibility requirements, we show that the Federal Reserve's corporate credit facilities have had a positive effect on market liquidity. A structural estimation reveals that customers' willingness to pay for immediacy increased by about 200 bps per dollar of transaction, but quickly subsided after the Fed announced its interventions. Dealers' marginal cost also increased substantially but did not fully subside. In Chapter 3, co-authored with Diego Zuniga, we study inter-dealer trading patterns in the US corporate bond market. We document that dealers trade with only a small group of other dealers and that this group of dealers is highly persistent over time. We show that the longer a dealer pair have been trading the more likely that they will continue to trade and the larger the bilateral volume traded between them. We measure trading costs between dealers and show that stronger relationship leads to lower trading costs. Motivated by our empirical work we develop a structural model of trading relationships. The existence of double marginalization leads to inefficiency. We show that the repeated nature of the interactions between dealers allows them to form relationships and hence restore optimality.

Download or read book Empirical Essays on Macro financial Linkages written by Ola Melander and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays in Macro Finance written by Xing Guo and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Macroeconomics and Finance written by Rudiger Dornbusch and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: