Download or read book Essays on Information Frictions and the Macroeconomy written by Andras Komaromi and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation is a compilation of three essays on the role of information frictions in macroeconomics. The first essay contributes to the literature on the impact of uncertainty on the business cycle. The cross-sectional dispersion of firm-level outcomes, such as sales growth or stock returns, is markedly countercyclical. Recent papers have framed this fact as evidence that exogenous "uncertainty shocks" are important drivers of business cycles. This paper provides empirical evidence that the co-movement of various dispersion measures with the business cycle is better understood as the economy's endogenous response to traditional first moment shocks - dispersion is the effect, not the cause. It then develops a theoretical model that links the cross-sectional dispersion of micro-level outcomes to the aggregate state of the economy. The mechanism is based on time-varying rational inattention. In bad times, firms pay more attention to idiosyncratic shocks hitting their business environment. More precise micro- level information about the underlying heterogeneity leads to higher dispersion in realized outcomes. In line with the empirical findings, the model generates countercyclical dispersion without relying on exogenous second moment (uncertainty) shocks. The second essay uses survey expectations to assess the microfoundations of an important class of macroeconomic models. Many theoretical macro models try to explain the pervasive nominal and real stickiness in the data by assuming rational decision-making under imperfect information. The behavior of consensus (average) forecasts is consistent with the predictions of these models, which can be seen as supportive empirical evidence for the models' microfoundations (Coibion and Gorodnichenko, 2012). This paper demonstrates, however, that the individual-level data underlying the consensus forecasts are at odds with this interpretation. In particular, I document that individual expectations in the Survey of Professional Forecasters do not pass a very weak test of rational expectations: current forecast revisions are strong predictors of subsequent forecast errors. Information frictions alone cannot explain this pattern. I go on to propose a simple modification of the noisy information framework that allows for a particular form of non-rational expectations: agents may incorrectly weight new information against their prior. I show that this parsimonious model can match the survey data along several dimensions. Using the structure of the model, I estimate the direction and size of inefficiencies in the expectations formation process. I find that in most cases agents put too much weight on their private information, which can be interpreted as overconfidence in the precision of private information. I also show that there is substantial heterogeneity across agents in the deviation from rational expectations, and I relate these differences to observable characteristics. Finally, I discuss potential interpretations of my empirical results and their implications for macroeconomic theory. The third essay explores the potential trade-off between competition and systemic stability in financial intermediation. Why do banks feel compelled to operate with such high leverage despite the risks this poses? Using a simple model, I argue that the degree of competition goes a long way in explaining capital structure decisions. On the one hand, information frictions (adverse selection) render debt a cheaper form of financing than equity. On the other hand, more reliance on debt increases the probability of bankruptcy, which results in the loss of the bank's charter value. The degree of competition affects charter values, and hence changes the way banks balance between these two forces. A panel analysis of European banks' capital structure around the introduction of the euro reveals statistically and economically significant effects consistent with this hypothesis. Banks, in particular smaller banks, decreased their equity ratios after entering the currency area. Complementary evidence suggests that this effect can be attributed to increased competitive pressures boosted by the euro.

Download or read book Essays on Informational Frictions in Macroeconomics and Finance written by Jennifer La'O and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of four chapters analyzing the effects of heterogeneous and asymmetric information in macroeconomic and financial settings, with an emphasis on short-run fluctuations. Within these chapters, I study the implications these informational frictions may have for the behavior of firms and financial institutions over the business cycle and during crises episodes. The first chapter examines how collateral constraints on firm-level investment introduce a powerful two-way feedback between the financial market and the real economy. On one hand, real economic activity forms the basis for asset dividends. On the other hand, asset prices affect collateral value, which in turn determines the ability of firms to invest. In this chapter I show how this two-way feedback can generate significant expectations-driven fluctuations in asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes when information is dispersed. In particular, I study the implications of this two-way feedback within a micro-founded business-cycle economy in which agents are imperfectly, and heterogeneously, informed about the underlying economic fundamentals. I then show how tighter collateral constraints mitigate the impact of productivity shocks on equilibrium output and asset prices, but amplify the impact of "noise", by which I mean common errors in expectations. Noise can thus be an important source of asset-price volatility and business-cycle fluctuations when collateral constraints are tight. The second chapter is based on joint work with George-Marios Angeletos. In this chapter we investigate a real-business-cycle economy that features dispersed information about underlying aggregate productivity shocks, taste shocks, and-potentially-shocks to monopoly power. We show how the dispersion of information can (i) contribute to significant inertia in the response of macroeconomic outcomes to such shocks; (ii) induce a negative short-run response of employment to productivity shocks; (iii) imply that productivity shocks explain only a small fraction of high-frequency fluctuations; (iv) contribute to significant noise in the business cycle; (v) formalize a certain type of demand shocks within an RBC economy; and (vi) generate cyclical variation in observed Solow residuals and labor wedges. Importantly, none of these properties requires significant uncertainty about the underlying fundamentals: they rest on the heterogeneity of information and the strength of trade linkages in the economy, not the level of uncertainty. Finally, none of these properties are symptoms of inefficiency: apart from undoing monopoly distortions or providing the agents with more information, no policy intervention can improve upon the equilibrium allocations. The third chapter is also based on joint work with George-Marios Angeletos. This chapter investigates how incomplete information affects the response of prices to nominal shocks. Our baseline model is a variant of the Calvo model in which firms observe the underlying nominal shocks with noise. In this model, the response of prices is pinned down by three parameters: the precision of available information about the nominal shock; the frequency of price adjustment; and the degree of strategic complementarity in pricing decisions. This result synthesizes the broader lessons of the pertinent literature. However, this synthesis provides only a partial view of the role of incomplete information: once one allows for more general information structures than those used in previous work, one cannot quantify the degree of price inertia without additional information about the dynamics of higher-order beliefs, or of the agents' forecasts of inflation. We highlight this with three extensions of our baseline model, all of which break the tight connection between the precision of information and higher-order beliefs featured in previous work. Finally, the fourth chapter studies how predatory trading affects the ability of banks and large trading institutions to raise capital in times of temporary financial distress in an environment in which traders are asymmetrically informed about each others' balance sheets. Predatory trading is a strategy in which a trader can profit by trading against another trader's position, driving an otherwise solvent but distressed trader into insolvency. The predator, however, must be sufficiently informed of the distressed trader's balance sheet in order to exploit this position. I find that when a distressed trader is more informed than other traders about his own balances, searching for extra capital from lenders can become a signal of financial need, thereby opening the door for predatory trading and possible insolvency. Thus, a trader who would otherwise seek to recapitalize is reluctant to search for extra capital in the presence of potential predators. Predatory trading may therefore make it exceedingly difficult for banks and financial institutions to raise credit in times of temporary financial distress.

Download or read book Essays on Information Frictions in Macroeconomics written by Jenny Chan and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three chapters related to questions in macroeconomics and information frictions. In the first chapter, I relax the complete information assumption in the standard New Keynesian framework to show how the stance of monetary policy can affect the non-fundamental composition of fluctuations, introducing a novel trade-off between stabilizing output and inflation. A strong response to inflation increases the variance of non-fundamental fluctuations. In the second chapter, I study the opti-mal design of monetary policy in the presence of nominal and informational frictions. Non-fundamental fluctuations are shown to be suboptimal. The Taylor rule is no longer sufficient to rule out indeterminacy. Instead, a more lax response to inflation eliminates non-fundamental fluctuations and hence the output-inflation tradeoff. In the third chap-ter, I provide evidence that shocks to sentiments and uncertainty as identified in the literature are correlated and may not be truly structural.

Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomics with Informational Frictions written by Juan Matias Sanchez and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Information and Financial Frictions in Macroeconomics written by Abolfazl Rezghi and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation examines how information and financial frictions impact firms' investment decisions and shape the effectiveness of monetary policy. The first chapter studies the response of high and low credit quality firms to expansionary monetary shocks. According to the findings, high credit quality firms respond to an expansionary shock by increasing their investment, inventory, and sales, whereas low credit quality firms experience a decrease in these variables. Moreover, their financing behavior differs, with high credit quality firms raising funds through equity while low credit quality firms are unable to issue equity or debt. To provide a theoretical explanation for these findings, a simple model is constructed with two types of firms: financially constrained firms and unconstrained firms. Financially constrained firms face a trade-off in allocating their limited funds between wage payments and investment, while unconstrained firms have greater financial flexibility. As a result of an expansionary shock, an increase in wages affects constrained firms disproportionately, leading them to cut their investment to cover the additional labor costs. Furthermore, constrained firms, due to their limited collateral, have to reduce their debt, which aligns with the empirical observations. The second chapter examines the interaction between information and financial frictions and its implications for the investment channel of monetary policy. In a model with inattentive firms facing financial frictions, constrained firms are more attentive to monetary policy as they attempt to avoid financial costs, creating a new channel for financial frictions to affect price rigidity. Since the level of price rigidity is one of the determinants of the outcome of the monetary policy, the model suggests that the investment channel of monetary policy hinges on the interaction between financial frictions and rational inattention. The research provides empirical evidence that supports the predictions of the model. Firstly, the study uses firms' expectation surveys and, taking size as a proxy for financial constraint, finds that smaller firms have more precise nowcasts and forecasts of aggregate variables. Additionally, these firms are more willing to pay for professional forecasts. Secondly, the research employs firms' balance sheet data and a proxy for aggregate attentiveness to demonstrate that higher information rigidity leads to a sluggish and dampened aggregate investment response to monetary shocks, as predicted by the model. The third chapter finds that a contractionary monetary shock would increase the number of defaults and the aggregate liability of defaulted firms in the economy. Using a DSGE model with financial intermediaries, I show that a higher rate of default negatively impacts the balance sheets of banks and leads to a decrease in the supply of credit and a rise in the interest rate of loans. This further increases the cost of production, forcing more firms to file for bankruptcy. The study demonstrates that monetary policy can effectively dampen this amplification mechanism by considering the default rate in the policy rule, thereby ensuring a more stable economic environment

Download or read book Essays on Information Frictions and Liquidity in Macroeconomics written by Cathy Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays on information frictions and liquidity in macroeconomics. The first chapter introduces a form of bounded rationality called adaptive learning in a news-driven economy in order to better explain the depth and persistence of recessions. In doing so, this paper adopts expectational stability ("E-stability") as a natural criterion for rationality. In examining the model's stability properties, I find that when agents do not observe current state variables when forming expectations, the rational expectations equilibrium (REE) is not learnable for calibrated parameter values capable of generating news-driven recessions. The second chapter develops an information-based theory of international currency based on search frictions, private trading histories, and imperfect recognizability of assets. Using an open-economy search model with multiple competing currencies, the value of each currency is determined without requiring agents to use a particular currency to purchase a country's goods. Strategic complementarities in portfolio choices and information acquisition decisions generate multiple equilibria with different types of payment arrangements. While some inflation can benefit the country issuing an international currency, the threat of losing international status puts an inflation discipline on the issuing country. When monetary authorities interact in a simple policy game, the temptation to inflate can lead optimal policy to deviate from the Friedman rule. The third chapter is joint work with Sebastien Lotz and studies the choice of payment instruments in a simple model where both money and credit can be used as means of payment. We endogenize the acceptability of credit by allowing retailers to invest in a costly record-keeping technology. Our framework captures the two-sided market interaction between consumers and retailers, leading to strategic complementarities that can generate multiple steady-state equilibria. In addition, limited commitment makes debt contracts self-enforcing and yields an endogenous upper bound on credit use. Our model can explain why the demand for credit declines as inflation falls, and how hold-up problems in technological adoption can prevent retailers from accepting credit as consumers continue to coordinate on cash usage.

Download or read book Essays on Information Friction with Application in Macroeconomics and Finance written by Zhongchao Yang and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on the Role of Frictions for Firms Sectors and the Macroeconomy written by and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomic Theory written by Marco Antonio Ortiz and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Credit Frictions and the Macroeconomy written by Angus Foulis and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on the Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Frictions written by Shuyun Li and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Financial Frictions and Macroeconomy in Emerging Markets written by Yogeshwar Bharat and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of firms' financial fragility and banks incentives on firms' decision to exit the export market. We draw information from the Prowess database on a large sample of Indian businesses between 2002 and 2017 and we obtain bank data from the Reserve Bank of India. Estimation results indicate that more indebted firms are associated with a high probability of exiting the export market. However, when we focus only on bank borrowing, we find that firms with high levels of bank debt (over total assets) are characterized by a lower probability of abandoning the export sector. By interacting our measures of financial fragility with a state-owned bank dummy, we also show that highly indebted firms borrowing from state-owned banks are associated with an even lower probability of exiting the export market. Finally, when we employ the change in the priority sector regulation to test the causality of our results and avoid endogeneity concerns, we provide evidence that firms borrowing from banks that were missing their priority sector targets are characterized by a significantly lower probability of abandoning foreign markets. The study did not find any significant effect of policy change on firms trying to enter the export market. Using an indirect definition of productivity showed that the policy change did not affect the productivity of the leveraged firms.

Download or read book Essays on Financial Frictions and Macroeconomic Dynamics written by Juan Pablo Medina Guzman and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Macroeconomics with Miroeconomic Frictions written by Yulei Luo and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Labor Market Frictions Technological Change and Macroeconomic Fluctuations written by Juuso Vanhala and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Frictions in Financial Macroeconomics written by Benjamin S. Kay and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building on Flavin and Nakagawa (2008), chapter one models household optimal consumption and portfolio selection when consumption services are generated by both housing and non-housing consumption. Housing is illiquid in that a non-convex adjustment cost must be paid when it is sold. It is shown that optimal consumption of housing is not a constant fraction of wealth but instead depends on the ratio of wealth to housing and the price of housing. Households adjust housing infrequently, waiting for large wealth changes before adjustment. As in models without this adjustment cost, households adjust non-housing consumption each period. Unlike in frictionless models, non-housing consumption is not a constant fraction of wealth. For particular parameters of the utility function and asset markets drawn from the literature, model simulations match aggregate consumption dynamics better than alternative frictionless models, even those with homes as assets. The simulations also predict differing responses of households with different fractions of their wealth in housing. In chapter two, stock market makers are afraid that informed insiders will take advantage of them in trade. To protect themselves, they may increase the bid-offer spread to include a fee for the adverse selection risk . If set correctly, market makers will share in profits from others trading on private information and can distribute the remaining costs among other market participants. If market makers protect themselves this way, then when the risk of informed trading is relatively low, the bid-offer spread should decline. The risk of informed trading will be relatively low when the difference in public and private information shrinks. Filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and conference calls where corporate earnings are announced and discussed should be events that diminish this difference. Because smaller companies attract less scrutiny, they may experience relatively larger changes in this information distance after these releases. This paper finds weak evidence that spreads diminish when this information is released and a weak size effect. It hypothesizes that the bid-offer spread seems to be unresponsive to information and company size because the adverse selection component of the spread is smaller than has previously been estimated does or possibly does not exist. Estimates of this spread are actually a statistical illusion created by the structural form of earlier estimation techniques. The recent global financial crisis suggests the post-1984 Great Moderation has come to an abrupt end. How we obtained nearly 25 years of stability and why it ended are ongoing puzzles. Chapter three depart from traditional monetary policy explanations and consider two empirical regularities in US employment : i) the decline in the procyclicality of labor productivity with respect to output and labor input and ii) the increase in the volatility of labor input relative to output. We first consider whether these stylized facts are robust to statistical methodology. We find that the widely reported decline in the procyclicality of labor productivity with respect to output is fragile. Using a new international data set on total hours constructed by Ohanina and Raffo (2011) we then consider whether these moments are stylized facts of the global Great Moderation. We document significant international heterogeneity. We then investigate whether the role of labor market frictions in the US as found in Galí and van Rens (2010) can explain the international results. We conclude that their stylized model does not appear to account for the differences with the US experience and suggest a direction for future research.

Download or read book Essays on Macroeconomics with Microeconomic Frictions written by Yulei Luo and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: