Download or read book Essays on Financial and Economic Risks written by Tengdong Liu and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays on financial economics, focusing on different types of financial and economic risks and covering different geographical regions. These risk types are related to stock, bond and commodity markets, financial stress and country risk ratings. The first essay investigates directional relationships, regime variances, transition probabilities and expected regime durations for two systems of economic and financial variables. The first system consists of daily series which include credit and market risks. The second system is based on monthly data, and encompasses credit, and market risks and economic activity and oil variables. The methodology is based on the Markov-Switching cointegrated VAR model. The results suggest there is a pronounced regime-specific behavior in both systems with FTP-MS model. There is a significant difference between the higher expected duration in the low volatility regime and the lower duration in the high volatility regime in both systems. Both models suggest that during the 2007/2008 Great Recession, the system stays mainly in regime 2 but returns to the normality state in the 2009 recovery period. The fundamental variables (industrial production, oil prices and the real interest rate) have varying effects in both regimes and both systems. Quantitative easing has significant effects on the bond expected volatility index MOVE in the high volatility regime and industrial production in both regimes. I also examine the driving forces of the time-varying transition probabilities and find that increases of oil price will decrease the probability that the financial markets stay in the low volatility regime. The second essay examines the asymmetric adjustments of the stock markets of the five BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to changes in the economic, financial and political country risk ratings of these countries in the short run and long run, using the momentum threshold autoregression (MTAR) and the vector error-correction(VEC) models. The findings suggest that the long-run relationships between these four variables respond asymmetrically depending on the direction of the shocks. The adjustment is faster when the spread between the actual level of stock market index and the level suggested by country risk ratings is narrowing than when it is widening, except for Russia which has the opposite response. The Chinese stock market seems to have the fastest adjustments in the short-and long-run among those of the five BRICS. In terms of the three country risk ratings the financial risk ratings for the five BRICS show the most responsiveness to all the variables in the long-run, while the political risk ratings exhibit the least. The economic and political risk ratings show the fastest adjustments for Brazil, while the financial risk rating is most pronounced in Russia. The third essay examines the Value-at-Risk for ten euro-zone equity markets individually and when divided into two groups: PIIGS and the Core, employing four VaR estimation methods. The results are evaluated according to four statistical properties as well as the Basel capital requirements for the period including the 2007/2008 financial crisis. The estimation and the evaluation are applied to the individual assets as well as to the portfolios consisting of the two groups. The results demonstrate that the CEVT method applied to the ten individual equity assets meet all the statistical criteria the best. The two optimal equity portfolios do not show diversification benefits as the PIIGS portfolio selects Spain's IBEX only and that of the Core opts for Austria's ATX only. The asset class-augmented portfolio that includes the Austrian (ATX) index, oil and gold gives the highest diversification gains. Adding other commodities such as corn and silver, or commodities indices to the augmented portfolio does not enhance the gains. At the optimal portfolio level, the Duration-Peak-Over-the-Threshold (DPOT) is recommended the best in terms of satisfying the Basel rules.

Download or read book Essays in financial economics and risk management written by Lin Zou and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Managing Global Money written by Graham Bird and published by Springer. This book was released on 1988-05-24 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of articles and papers has been organised under a limited number of specific themes in international financial economics, including balance of payment theory and policy, the activities of the IMF, Special Drawing Rights, the role of the private financial markets, and the international economic order. A unifying theme running through all the essays is that some degree of management of international financial affairs is desirable. The book has a strong policy orientation and should be of interest to students and practitioners of international financial economics alike.

Download or read book Essays on Financial Risks and the Subprime Crisis written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Risk and Uncertainty in Economics and Finance written by Jorge Mario Uribe Gil and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis adds to the resolution of two problems in finance and economics: i) what is macro-financial uncertainty? : How to measure it? How is it different from risk? How important is it for the financial markets? And ii) what sort of asymmetries underlie financial risk and uncertainty propagation across the global financial markets? That is, how risk and uncertainty change according to factors such as market states or market participants. In Chapter 2, which is entitled "Momentum Uncertainties", I study the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the abnormal returns of a momentum trading strategy in the stock market. I show that high levels of uncertainty in the economy impact negatively and significantly the returns of a portfolio of stocks that consist of buying past winners and selling past losers. High uncertainty reduces below zero the abnormal returns of momentum, extinguishes the Sharpe ratio of the momentum strategy, while increases the probability of momentum crashes both by increasing the skewness and the kurtosis of the momentum return distribution. Uncertainty acts as an economic regime that underlies abrupt changes over time of the returns generated by momentum strategies. In Chapter 3, "Measuring Uncertainty in the Stock Market", I propose a new index for measuring stock market uncertainty on a daily basis. The index considers the inherent differentiation between uncertainty and the common variations between the series. The second contribution of chapter 3 is to show how this financial uncertainty index can also serve as an indicator of macroeconomic uncertainty. Finally, I analyze the dynamic relationship between uncertainty and the series of consumption, interest rates, production and stock market prices, among others. In chapter 4: "Uncertainty, Systemic Shocks and the Global Banking Sector: Has the Crisis Modified their Relationship?", I explore the stability of systemic risk and uncertainty propagation among financial institutions in the global economy, and show that it has remained stable over the last decade. Additionally, I provide a new simple tool for measuring the resilience of financial institutions to these systemic shocks. My contribution to the literature in this essay is mainly the examination of the characteristics and stability of systemic risk and uncertainty, in relation to the dynamics of the banking sector stock returns. This sort of evidence is new to the literature and is supportive of past claims, made in the field of macroeconomics, which hold that during the global financial crisis the financial system may have faced stronger versions of traditional shocks rather than a new type of shock. In chapter 5, "Currency downside risk, liquidity, and financial stability", I analyze downside risk propagation across global currency markets and the ways in which it is related to liquidity. I make two primary contributions to the literature. First, I estimate tail-spillovers between currencies in the global FX market. This index is easy to build and does not require intraday data, which constitutes an important advantage. Second, I show that turnover is related to risk spillovers in global currency markets. Chapter 6 is entitled "Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 Stock Markets: A VAR-Quantile Analysis". This essay contributes to the studies of contagion, market integration and cross-border spillovers during both regular and crisis episodes by carrying out a multivariate quantile analysis. I focus the analysis carried out in this chapter on Latin American stock markets, which have been characterized by a highly positive dynamic in recent decades, in terms of market capitalization and liquidity ratios, after a far-reaching process of market liberalization and reforms to pension funds across the continent during the 80s and 90s. I documented smaller dependences between the LA markets and the US market than those between the US and the developed economies, especially in the highest and lowest quantiles. -- TDX.

Download or read book Three Essays on Economic and Financial Risks in Different Asset Classes and Diverse Regions written by Soodabeh Sarafrazi and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation is titled "Economic and Financial Risks in Different Asset Classes and Different Regions," which encompasses three essays on economic activity and financial risks for the United States, interactions between Islamic and conventional stock markets, and downside risks and optimal diversified equity, bond and commodity portfolios for the PIIGs and CORE of the eurozone. The dissertation investigates migration and cascading of the different kinds of risks in the respected financial markets or regions in an economic policy uncertainty and financial stress environment.

Download or read book The Fantods of Risk written by Ann Blair Kloman and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2008-01-21 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fantods of Risk is a collection of essays from the pages of Risk Management Reports, which the author edited, wrote and published from 1974 through 2007, plus several other published articles. The subject is risk management, a discipline for dealing with uncertainty in our personal and organizational lives. They continue the author’s contrary and challenging approach to managing risk, first started in Risk Management Reports and later in Mumpsimus Revisited, published in 2005.

Download or read book The Fantods of Risk written by H. Felix Kloman and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fantods of Risk is a collection of essays from the pages of Risk Management Reports, which the author edited, wrote and published from 1974 through 2007, plus several other published articles. The subject is risk management, a discipline for dealing with uncertainty in our personal and organizational lives. They continue the author's contrary and challenging approach to managing risk, first started in Risk Management Reports and later in Mumpsimus Revisited, published in 2005.

Download or read book Essays in Financial Economics and Credit Risk written by Jens Dietrich Hilscher and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Why the World Economy Needs a Financial Crash and Other Critical Essays on Finance and Financial Economics written by Jan Toporowski and published by Anthem Press. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essays in this volume explain the key structural features of financial inflation that give rise to financial crisis. These features include excessive reliance on finance to maintain economic activity through rising asset prices. Reliance on asset inflation induces a preoccupation with property values and a new social divide between the asset-rich and the asset-poor that undermines the culture of the welfare state. When debt can no longer be supported by cash flow from asset markets, excess debt plunges economies into economic depression.

Download or read book Theory and Reality in Financial Economics written by George M. Frankfurter and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2007 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current literature on financial economics is dominated by neoclassical dogma and, supposedly, the notion of value-neutrality. However, the failure of neoclassical economics to deal with real financial phenomena suggests that this might be too simplistic of an approach. This book consists of a collection of essays dealing with financial markets'' imperfections, and the inability of neoclassical economics to deal with such imperfections. Its central argument is that financial economics, as based on the tenets of neoclassical economics, cannot answer or solve the real-life problems that people face. It also shows the direct relationship between economics and politics OCo something that is usually denied in academic models, given that science is supposed to be value-neutral. In this thought-provoking and avant-garde book, the author not only exposes what has gone wrong, but also suggests reforms to both the academic and the political-economic systems that might help make markets fair rather than efficient. Drawing on interdisciplinary fields, this book will appeal to readers who are interested in finance, economics, business, the political economy and philosophy. Sample Chapter(s). Foreword (37 KB). Chapter 1: Method and Methodology (146 KB). Contents: Method and Methodology; What is All Efficiency?; Still Autistic Finance; The Young Finance Faculty''s Guide to Publishing; Prolific Authors in Finance; For-Profit Education: An Idea That Should be Put to Rest?; Weep Not for Microsoft: Monopoly''s Fatal Exception; The Socio-Economics of Scandals; Desperately Seeking Toto; And Now for Something Entirely Different; After the Ball; Capitalism or Industrial Fiefdom; The Theory of Fair Markets (TFM): Toward a New Finance Paradigm. Readership: Graduate students of finance; students of economics, economic methodology and philosophy of science."

Download or read book Essays on risk in international financial markets written by Ola Larsson and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Global Economic Risk written by Jonathan William Welburn and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent economic crises (the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Russian crisis, the 2007 global financial crisis, and the 2009 Eurozone crisis) have created a new landscape. These crises elucidate the systemic nature of economic risk, where adverse events appear capable of quickly spreading from one country to the next through a process commonly known as contagion. This dissertation uses an interdisciplinary approach that bridges the fields of operations research, economics, and risk analysis to contribute a novel approach for understanding the processes by which contagion can occur. First, we present a large game-theoretic framework to explain how the dynamics between households, firms, banks, central banks, countries, and financial intergovernmental organizations contribute to crises. Second, we present a more parsimonious model, a borrower-lender game with sequential moves and imperfect information, to discuss the potential for contagion through debt and trade channels while highlighting the role of beliefs. While many in the literature focus on contagion as a direct transmission of economic shocks through debt and trade channels, we find that contagion through trade is unlikely and that the role of lender beliefs can result in apparent contagion. We demonstrate that changes in lender beliefs following revelations of a crisis in one country may lead a lender to be unwilling to lend to another country. This in turn may create a self-fulfilling prophecy where, without access to credit, that country may be less willing and able to repay past debts. Furthermore, we find that our borrower-lender game can explain apparent contagion throughout the Eurozone crisis through deteriorating lender beliefs. While the conventional story is that contagion leads to real propagations through debt (or trade), we find that a real propagation of shocks is not needed.

Download or read book Essays on the Economics of Risk and Financial Markets written by Robert Staffan Turley and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prices in financial markets are primarily driven by the interaction of risk and time. The returns to financial assets over long time horizons are primarily driven by fundamental news regarding their promised cash flows. In contrast, short-run price variation is associated with a large degree of predictable, transient investor trading behavior unrelated to fundamental prospects.

Download or read book Essays in Financial Economics written by Winston Wei Dou and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 383 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays that theoretically and empirically investigate the asset pricing and macroeconomic implications of uncertainty shocks, propose new measures for model robustness, explain the joint dynamics on equity excess returns and real exchange rates. In the first chapter, I show that the effect of uncertainty shocks on asset prices and macroeconomic dynamics depends on the degree of risk sharing in the economy and the origin of uncertainty. I develop a general equilibrium model with imperfect risk sharing and two sources of uncertainty shocks: (i) cash-flow uncertainty shocks, which affect the idiosyncratic volatility of firms' productivity, and (ii) growth uncertainty shocks, which affect the idiosyncratic variability of firms' investment opportunities. My model deviates from the neoclassical setting in one respect: firms' investment policies are set by the experts who are subject to a moral hazard problem and thus must maintain an non-diversified ownership stake in the firm. As a result, risk sharing between experts and other investors is imperfect. Limited risk sharing distorts equilibrium investment choices, firm valuation, and prices of risk in equilibrium relative to the frictionless benchmark. In the calibrated model, the risk premium on growth uncertainty shocks is negative under poor risk sharing conditions and positive otherwise. Moreover, the cross-sectional spread in valuations between value and growth stocks loads positively on the growth uncertainty shocks under poor risk sharing conditions and negatively otherwise. Empirical tests support these predictions of the model. The second chapter is based on the joint work Chen, Dou, and Kogan (2015), in which we propose a new quantitative measure of model fragility, based on the tendency of a model to over-fit the data in sample with poor out-of-sample performance. We formally show that structural economic models are fragile when the cross-equation restrictions they impose on the baseline statistical model appear excessively informative about combinations of model parameters that are otherwise difficult to estimate. We develop an analytically tractable asymptotic approximation to our fragility measure which we use to identify the problematic parameter combinations. Using these asymptotic results, we diagnose fragility in asset pricing models with rare disasters and long-run consumption risk. The third chapter is based on the joint work Dou and Verdelhan (2015), which presents a two-good, two-country real model that replicates the basic stylized facts on equity excess returns and real interest rates. In the model, markets are incomplete. In each country, workers cannot participate in financial markets whereas investors trade domestic and foreign stocks, as well as an international bond. The investors' asset positions are subject to a borrowing constraint, along with a short-selling constraint on equity. Foreign and domestic agents differ in their elasticity of inter temporal substitution and in their risk-aversion. A time-varying probability of a global disaster implies time-varying risk premia in asset markets, and therefore large and time-varying expected valuation effects on international asset positions. The model highlights the role of market incompleteness and heterogeneity across countries in accounting for the volatility of equity and debt international capital flows.

Download or read book Nonlinear Economic Dynamics and Financial Modelling written by Roberto Dieci and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-07-26 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reflects the state of the art on nonlinear economic dynamics, financial market modelling and quantitative finance. It contains eighteen papers with topics ranging from disequilibrium macroeconomics, monetary dynamics, monopoly, financial market and limit order market models with boundedly rational heterogeneous agents to estimation, time series modelling and empirical analysis and from risk management of interest-rate products, futures price volatility and American option pricing with stochastic volatility to evaluation of risk and derivatives of electricity market. The book illustrates some of the most recent research tools in these areas and will be of interest to economists working in economic dynamics and financial market modelling, to mathematicians who are interested in applying complexity theory to economics and finance and to market practitioners and researchers in quantitative finance interested in limit order, futures and electricity market modelling, derivative pricing and risk management.

Download or read book Three Essays on Financial Economics written by Haonan Qu and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this dissertation, I explore the interactions between financial markets and real economy activities. In the first chapter, I use the evidence from an emerging market to study how the development of its financial system could affect activities in its real economy. In the second chapter, I look at excess returns in the US treasury bond market and try to understand the economic fundamentals driving the risk premia. In the final chapter, I examine corporate financing decisions using publicly traded firms in the US. The patterns in their financing decision can be partially explained by the information embedded in the financial market. To what extent the development of sophisticated financial markets benefits emerging economies is an open question. In the first chapter, I use a unique data set on all currency derivative transactions by non-financial firms in 2006 and 2007 in Colombia to provide new evidence on one aspect of this question: the effect of participation in derivatives markets on firm capital formation. I use a difference-in-difference propensity score matching approach in order to control for self selection and common trends. I find a large positive effect: firms using currency derivatives invest on average 5.7 percent more, which is about 40 percent of their average investment rate. This investment-enhancing effect is entirely driven by firms taking long positions (i.e. dollar buying) in the derivatives market. For firms taking short positions, typically exporters, the use of derivatives does not have any discernible impact on investment. One possible explanation is the asymmetry in the impact of the exchange rate movement on exporting and importing firms. In the second chapter, I propose a latent variable approach within a present value model to estimate the expected short rate changes and bond risk premia. This approach aggregates information contained in the history of yield spreads and short rate changes to predict future bond excess returns and short rate changes. I find that the factor from Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) fails to predict bond excess returns when I consider different maturities of the underlying short rate. From the proposed present value model, I find a significant predictable component in short rate changes with R-square ranging from 29 precent to 80 percent, and a moderate R-square about 12 percent for predicting bond excess returns. Both expected short rate changes and bond risk premia have a persistent component, but bond risk premia are more persistent than expected short rate changes. In addition, the bond risk premia become more persistent as I increase the maturity of the underlying short rate. Finally, I explore the source of the time variation in bond risk premia, and find that monetary policy plays an important role. In the third chapter, I document a strongly decreasing time trend in firms' leverage ratio at their IPO years over the period from 1975 to 2006. This trend survives when typical factors are controlled for, including industry fixed effect. Furthermore, I find that firms listed more recently are more adverse to debt financing. A deeper examination shows that the risk associated with firm's operation provides a limited explanation for this finding. However, the underpinnings of the observed pattern of firms' leverage ratios at IPO are still largely unresolved.