Download or read book Essays on Estimating and Testing Asset Pricing Models written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Two Essays on Asset Pricing written by Jun Xu and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essay One: A New Estimate of BetaThis essay examines a new method of estimating systematic risk, or "beta". Due to market imperfection, stock prices, especially those of small firms, do not move with the market index synchronously. Because of nonsynchronous or delayed reaction in price for small firms, the traditional beta estimated from the market model may not be a true reflection of systematic risk. In other words, since stock prices do not fully respond to the market in a single period, the contemporary beta may only reflect the partial systematic risk. As a result, the beta estimated from the market model is underestimated for small firms and overestimated for large firms. The same problem also causes betas estimated from the market model to vary greatly across different estimation horizons. I develop a model of delay/lead price reactions for small/large firms. Based on this model I derive a multiple-period regression equation for the new estimation of beta.^We then estimate the equation for each of the ten size-ranked decile portfolios at different estimation horizons, using monthly, weekly and daily returns. Betas estimated from the optimal estimation horizons for monthly, weekly, and daily returns are discussed. Our results show that, betas estimated at similar horizons, using monthly, weekly, and daily returns, are consistent with each other. Betas estimated for the ten size-decile portfolios from monthly, weekly, and daily average returns are positively related to those returns, respectively. Essay Two: Test of Capital Asset Pricing Model Based on a New Estimate of BetaThis essay tests the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), based on a new estimate of beta. The test methodology follows the classic Fama-MacBeth (1973) approach, using updated data from 1926-2010.^I ran each test on eleven different periods based on three different estimates of beta: the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) beta, the Scholes-Williams (1977) beta, and a new estimate of beta. From three long testing periods, 1935-1968, 1969-2010, and 1935-2010, all three hypotheses are confirmed based on the new estimate of beta. In other words there is a positive trade-off between average return and risk, and non-linearity and non-beta risk do not play a significant role in explaining the cross section of expected return. Test results from the three long periods based on the OLS beta and the Scholes-Williams beta are mixed and less supportive to CAPM. Our test results from the eight shorter periods do not confirm the CAPM. However, this may be due to the lack of power and efficiency of the test methodology when applied to short periods.^Overall, our results from long periods show that tests based on the new estimate of beta perform better than those based on the OLS beta and the Scholes-Williams beta in terms of supporting CAPM.
Download or read book Essays on Nonparametric Estimation of Asset Pricing Models written by Jeroen Wilhelmus Paulus Dalderop and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on Asset Pricing and Empirical Estimation written by Pooya Nazeran and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: A considerable portion of the asset pricing literature considers the demand schedule for asset prices to be perfectly elastic (flat). As argued, asset prices are determined using information about future payoff distribution, as well as the discount rate; consequently, an asset would be priced independent of its available supply. Furthermore, such a flat demand curve is considered to be a consequence of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. My dissertation evaluates and questions the factuality of these assertions. I approach this problem from both an empirical and a theoretical perspective. The general argument is that asset prices do respond to supply-shocks; and changes in aggregate demand, stemming from preference changes, new international investments, or quantitative easing by the Fed, can result in price changes. Hence, asset prices are determined by both demand and supply factors. In the first essay, "Downward Sloping Asset Demand: Evidence from the Treasury Bills Market," I report on my empirical study which establishes the existence of a downward sloping demand curve (DSDC) in the T-bill market. In the second essay, "Asset Pricing: Inelastic Supply," I examine the theoretical issues concerning a downward sloping demand curve. I begin by clarifying a common confusion in the literature, namely, that many asset pricing models imply a flat demand curve. I show that the prominent asset pricing models, including Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM), all have an underlying DSDC. I further show that, while these models imply the relevance of supply, they are inconvenient as a vehicle for the estimation and analysis of the DSDC in the data. For those purposes, I develop an asset pricing framework based on the stochastic discount factor framework, specifically designed with a DSDC at its heart. I end the essay with a discussion of the framework's implications and applications. In the third essay I develop on the Factor-Augmented Vector-Autoregression (FAVAR) literature, proposing a bias-corrected method. As implemented in the literature, the Principal Component Analysis stage of FAVAR introduces a classical-error-in-variable problem which leads to bias. I propose an instrument-based method for bias correction.
Download or read book Empirical Testing of Asset Pricing Models written by Bruce Neal Lehmann and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This essay reviews the extensive literature on empirical testing of asset pricing models. It briefly describes the kinds of asset pricing models typically tested in the literature and explicates their econometric implications, both in terms of the estimation of relevant parameters and tests of their implied restrictions. Pertinent aspects of the available data on security prices and macroeconomic variables are discussed as well. The essay concludes with the examination of selected aspects of the current empirical state of asset pricing theory
Download or read book Essays in Asset Pricing written by Michael Shane O'Doherty and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a variety of test portfolios, the optimal pool of models consistently outperforms the best individual model on both statistical and economic grounds.
Download or read book Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing written by Irina Pimenova and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this dissertation, I revisit two problems in empirical asset pricing. In Chapter 1, I propose a methodology to evaluate the validity of linear asset pricing factor models under short sale restrictions using a regression-based test. The test is based on the revised null hypothesis that intercepts obtained from regressing excess returns of test assets on factor returns, usually referred to as alphas, are non-positive. I show that under short sale restrictions a much larger set of models is supported by the data than without restrictions. In particular, the Fama-French five-factor model augmented with the momentum factor is rejected less often than other models. In Chapter 2, I investigate patterns of equity premium predictability in international capital markets and explore the robustness of common predictive variables. In particular, I focus on predictive regressions with multiple predictors: dividend-price ratio, four interest rate variables, and inflation. To obtain precise estimates, two estimation methods are employed. First, I consider all capital markets jointly as a system of regressions. Second, I take into account uncertainty about which potential predictors forecast excess returns by employing spike-and-slab prior. My results suggest evidence in favor of predictability is weak both in- and out-of-sample and limited to a few countries. The strong predictability observed on the U.S. market is rather exceptional. In addition, my analysis shows that considering model uncertainty is essential as it leads to a statistically significant increase of investors' welfare both in- and out-of-sample. On the other hand, the welfare increase associated with considering capital markets jointly is relatively modest. However, it leads to reconsider the relative importance of predictive variables because the variables that are statistically significant predictors in the country-specific regressions are insignificant when the capital markets are studied jointly. In particular, my results suggest that the in-sample evidence in favor of the interest rate variables, that are believed to be among the most robust predictors by the literature, is spurious and is mostly driven by ignoring the cross-country information. Conversely, the dividend-price ratio emerges as the only robust predictor of future stock returns.
Download or read book Three Essays on Money and Asset Pricing written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on Linear Asset Pricing Models written by Hua Shang and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This disertation includes three essays on linear asset pricing models. The first chapter is concerned with the effects of including a low-variance factor which leads to a small signal-to-noise ratio in an asset pricing model. We rely on local asymptotics and define the low-variance as local-to-zero by being inversely related to the sample size. When a low-variance factor is present, the commonly applied Fama-Macbeth two-pass regression procedure yields misleading results. Local asymptotic analysis and simulation evidence indicate that the beta of the low-variance factor, risk premiums corresponding to all factors and the magnitude of associated variances are all unreliably estimated. Moreover, t- and F- statistics are unable to detect whether risk premiums are significantly different from zero. Additional simulation results also reveal that Kleibergen's statistic has some ability to detect the usefulness of different factors. In the second chapter, I investigate the finite sample properties of the two-pass regression, the t-statistic, statistics proposed by Kleibergen (2009) and the specification tests when the first-pass regression slope coefficients -- betas -- are large, small and zero. In particular, I explore the effect of the number of assets on the properties of the statistics. The results reveal that most of the statistics tend to reach a conclusion that the factor should be included in the model or the model is correct more often that it should, especially when betas are small and the number of assets is large. The diagnosis of the results shows that the source of the problem lies in the large bias of the estimated risk premiums and the poor estimation of the variance-covariance matrix of the error terms in the first-pass regression. The third chapter explores an economic explanation of commodity prices by considering the macro-economic exposure of commodity returns. Through estimating the stochastic discount factor representation of the linear asset pricing model, I find that investors are compensated for exchange-rate risk. The result is robust to different estimation methods, to different data sets and over longer periods of time.
Download or read book Essays on Pricing Models in Economics and Finance written by Anchada Charoenrook and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on Practical Issues in Asset Pricing written by Yan Wang and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays in Asset Pricing and Machine Learning written by Jason Yue Zhu and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this thesis we study two applications of machine learning to estimate models that explains asset prices by harnessing the vast quantity of asset and economic information while also capturing complex structure among sources of risk. First we show how to build a cross-section of asset returns, that is, a small set of basis or test assets that capture complex information contained in a given set of characteristics and span the Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF). We use decision trees to generalize the concept of conventional sorting and introduce a new approach to robustly recover the SDF, which endogenously yields optimal portfolio splits. These low-dimensional investment strategies are well diversified, easily interpretable, and reflect many characteristics at the same time. Empirically, we show that traditional cross-sections of portfolios and their combinations, especially deciles and long-short anomaly factors, present too low a hurdle for model evaluation and serve as the wrong building blocks for the SDF. Constructed from the same pricing signals, our cross-sections have significantly higher (up to a factor of three) out-of-sample Sharpe ratios and pricing errors relative to the leading reduced-form asset pricing models. In the second part of the thesis, I present deep neural networks to estimate an asset pricing model for individual stock returns that takes advantage of the vast amount of conditioning information, while keeping a fully flexible form and accounting for time-variation. The key innovations are to use the fundamental no-arbitrage condition as criterion function to construct the most informative test assets with an adversarial approach and to extract the states of the economy from many macroeconomic time series. Our asset pricing model outperforms out-of-sample all benchmark approaches in terms of Sharpe ratio, explained variation and pricing errors and identifies the key factors that drive asset prices.
Download or read book Essays on Macro finance Asset Pricing Models and Estimation written by Kyu Ho Kang and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In my dissertation, I focus on theoretical asset pricing models and the development of Bayesian econometric methods to estimate them, particularly in the area of bond pricing. The first essay theoretically and empirically examines structural changes in a dynamic term-structure model of zero-coupon bond yields. To do this, we develop a new arbitrage-free one latent and two macro-economics factor affine model to price default-free bonds when all model parameters are subject to change at unknown time points. The bonds in our set-up can be priced straightforwardly once the change-point model is formulated as a specific unidirectional Markov process. We consider five versions of our general model - with 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 change-points - to a collection of 16 yields measured quarterly over the period 1972:I to 2007:IV. Our empirical approach to inference is fully Bayesian with priors set up to reflect the assumption of a positive term-premium. The use of Bayesian techniques is particularly relevant because the models are high-dimensional and non-linear, and because it is more straightforward to compare our different change-point models from the Bayesian perspective. Our estimation results indicate that the model with 3 change-points is most supported by the data and that the breaks occurred in 1980:II, 1985:IV and 1995:II. These dates correspond (in turn) to the time of a change in monetary policy, the onset of what is termed the great moderation, and the start of technology driven period of economic growth. We also utilize the Bayesian framework to derive the out-of-sample predictive densities of the term-structure. We find that the forecasting performance of the 3 change-point model is substantially better than that of the other models we examine. In the second essay, we develop and estimate a model of the term structure of interest rates within the context of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. The model features multiple monetary policy and volatility regimes. We estimate this model by Bayesian methods. Our estimation results reveal that U.S. monetary policy has become ``more active'' since 1995:Q2, that during this period, the average term premium has fallen, and that the price of regime shift risk is always significantly positive over time. These findings highlight the important role that general equilibrium modeling can play in understanding the complex dynamics of the term structure.
Download or read book Essays in Insider Trading Informational Efficiency and Asset Pricing written by Stephen Rhett Clark and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While significant deviations between initial forecasts and actual box-office outcomes exist, prices nonetheless evolve in accordance with efficient updating. Further, convergence rates appear independent of both the average initial forecast error and the level of disagreement in forecasts. Lastly, the third chapter revisits the theoretical justifications for Bossaerts's (2004) ELM, with the goal of providing clear, intuitive proofs of the key results underlying the methodology. The seemingly biggest hurdle to garnering more widespread adoption of the ELM methodology is the confusion that surrounds the use of weighted modified returns when testing for rational asset pricing restrictions. I attack this hurdle by offering a transparent justification for this approach. I then establish how and why Bossaerts's results extend from the case of digital options to the more practically relevant class of all limited-liability securities, including equities. I conclude by showing that the ELM restrictions naturally lend themselves to estimation and testing of asset pricing models, using weighted modified returns, in a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) framework.
Download or read book Estimating and Testing Investment based Asset Pricing Models written by Frederico Belo and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most investment-based asset pricing models predict a close link between a firm's stock return and firm-characteristics at any point in time. Yet, previous work typically examines the weaker prediction that this link should hold on average. We show how to incorporate the time-series predictions in the estimation and testing of investment-based models using the generalized method of moments. We find that standard specifications of the investment-based model with one physical capital input fail to match the time series properties of stock returns in the data, and discuss the implications of the findings for future research.
Download or read book Essays on Conditional Asset Pricing and Machine Learning in Finance written by Stephen Owen and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years there has been wide-scale access to improved statistical estimation techniques and the implementation of such techniques in financial economics. In this dissertation, I provide two brief overviews of the evolution of linear factor models in asset pricing and machine learning in finance. I then provide four research essays that implement machine learning in financial economic research settings. The first essay revisits tests of the conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model in an international context using multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity techniques. The second essay studies the use of hierarchical clustering in mean-variance optimal portfolio management. The third essay proposes a novel paragraph embedding technique that leverages the question-and-answer structure of earnings announcement calls to model the similarity between documents. The fourth and final essay studies the impact that dodgy managers have on idiosyncratic security performance.
Download or read book Reformulated Asset Pricing Models written by Zhongzhi Lawrence He and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dissertation consists of three essays that address both the theoretical and empirical aspects of characteristics-based asset pricing models. In the first essay, we reformulate a characteristics-based model to demonstrate why firm characteristics explain cross-sectional expected returns. The model is based on an economic setting where the fully-rational group of investors adopts contrarian strategies against the quasi-rational group of investors. The key result is a parsimonious cross-sectional equation that is not only specified by the risk-return relationship, but is also determined by both market-wide and firm-specific adjustments. We offer consistent explanations for the behaviors of growth and value stocks, and also for the prominent cross-sectional patterns such as book-to-market, earnings-to-price, and size effects. In the second essay, we reformulate an asset pricing model where liquidity is an endogenous determinant of expected returns. The key result is that a firm's expected return can be explained by three components: an interest rate term that includes a market-average expected liquidity, a market risk term determined by a weighted average consumption beta, and a firm-specific term determined by a linear deviation of the firm's expected liquidity from that of the market portfolio. We test various empirical implications derived from the theory and find that the expected liquidity effect and the size effect are significant, but the risk-return relationship is flat in the Canadian market. In the third essay, we propose a characteristics-based asset-pricing model from an ex post perspective. We examine the widely used empirical procedure that groups stocks into portfolios by sorting firm characteristics, showing that the exhibited systematic patterns may be largely due to the way of forming portfolios. We design a new portfolio approach and perform robustness tests for the cross-sectional relationships between risk, liquidity, and returns using Canadian stock market data. We find a strong liquidity-return relationship and a significant risk-return relationship when conditioning on realized returns. Both the risk effect and the liquidity effect are highly robust across different portfolio formations.