Download or read book Essays on Dynamic Decision Making Under Ambiguity written by Konstantinos Georgalos and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Decision Making Under Ambiguity written by Xiangyu Qu and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: This dissertation is composed of a collection of six distinct papers on decision making under ambiguity.

Download or read book Empirical Essays on Dynamic Decision Making written by Zhibo Xu and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Dynamic Decision Making Under Ambiguity written by Konstantinos Georgalos and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Individual Decision Making Under Ambiguity and Over Time written by Yuanyuan Liu and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation addresses the issue of how to make decisions involving both time delay and ambiguous information. This dissertation is arranged into three chapters. Chapter 1 reviews a set of studies on the influence of ambiguity and time delay on individual decision making and raises two relevant research questions: (1) Are decision makers' ambiguity preferences different for prospects resolved in the present and the future?; and (2) Do decision makers' time preferences differ under ambiguous and unambiguous payoffs? Chapter 2 and 3 are two independent essays, each addressing one of the above questions. The first essay examines ambiguity preferences under present and delayed resolutions across low and high probabilities. Results of three studies show an interaction effect between resolution time and probability level. Under the immediate resolution, we find that individuals exhibit ambiguity aversion at high probabilities and weak ambiguity seeking or indifference at low probabilities, consistent with prior literature. However, delayed resolution regresses aversion and seeking behaviors to neutrality. Drawing on the construal level theory and the dual-process theory, we attribute this interaction effect to the difference in processing styles for present and future prospects. The second essay demonstrates the impact of ambiguous future payoffs on intertemporal preferences. Six studies show that, despite the fact that ambiguous and delayed payoffs are generally disliked separately, together they produce a positive effect. That is, ambiguous future payoffs are more likely to be preferred than precise payoffs (with equal expected values) in intertemporal decision-making. We propose the overshadowing hypothesis to explain this effect and rule out three other possibilities. Finally, we establish boundary conditions by systematically examining whether the effect persists at various ambiguity levels and time points.

Download or read book Essays in Dynamic General Equilibrium Theory written by Alessandro Citanna and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-01-11 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the area of dynamic economics, David Cass’s work has spawned a number of important lines of research, including the study of dynamic general equilibrium theory, the concept of sunspot equilibria, and general equilibrium theory when markets are incomplete. Based on these contributions, this volume contains new developments in the field, written by Cass's students and co-authors.

Download or read book Essays on Experimental Analysis of Decision making Under Risk and Ambiguity written by Julen Carlos Ortiz De Zarate Pina and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Decision making Under Risk and Ambiguity in Theory and Laboratory Experiments written by Marie-Charlotte Guetlein and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Individual Vs Group Decision Making written by Enrica Carbone and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Experiments on Decision making Under Uncertainty in Dynamic Environments written by Yaroslav Rosokha and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three economic experiments that investigate behavioral differences in decision making process under risk (uncertainty with known probabilities) and under ambiguity (uncertainty with unknown probabilities). The first and the second chapters present two experiments with subjects choosing between lotteries involving risky and ambiguous urns. Decisions are made in conjunction with a sequence of random draws with replacement, allowing us to track the beliefs of the agents at different moments in time. In the first chapter, we develop and estimate a model of subjective belief updating allowing for base rate fallacy. We find that when updating under ambiguity subjects significantly underweight the new signal, while when updating under compound risk subjects are essentially Bayesian. In the second chapter, we estimate a popular multiple priors model for decision making under ambiguity in dynamic environments. Our estimates suggest a difference in the confidence with which subjects discard the unlikely priors depending on whether an ambiguous urn was presented first or second. Specifically, when an ambiguous urn is presented first, subjects consider more priors during the learning process as compared to when a compound urn is presented first. We also find significant evidence against the hypothesis that human subjects consider only Dirac priors. In the third chapter, we examine the behavior of security dealers in an environment where the level of asymmetric information is viewed as either risk, compound risk, or ambiguity. Using two measures of market liquidity, resiliency and price, we find that duopoly dealer markets are both more resilient to uncertainty about asymmetric information as well as having higher dealer bids compared with monopoly dealer markets for all three uncertainty scenarios. Additionally, we find differences in dealer bidding behavior in duopoly setting depending on whether the uncertainty about informed trading is presented as risk, compound risk, or ambiguity.

Download or read book Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making written by Richard J. Arend and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024-01-03 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI. It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about ‘unknowns’ while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as ‘knowable’ (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat ‘unknowables’ as ‘shapeable’ or ‘discoverable’. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, by offering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty.

Download or read book Decision Making under Ambiguity and Time Constraints written by Reimut Zohlnhöfer and published by ECPR Press. This book was released on 2016-02-24 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policy issues have grown ever more complex and politically more contestable. So governments in advanced democracies often do not understand the problems they have to deal with and do not know how to solve them. Thus, rational problem-solving models are highly unconvincing. Conversely, the Multiple-Streams Framework starts out from these conditions, which has led to increasing interest in it. Nevertheless, there has not yet been a systematic attempt to assess the potential of such scholarship. This volume is the first attempt to fill that gap by bringing together a group of international scholars to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the Framework from different angles. Chapters explore systematically and empirically the Framework’s potential in different national contexts and in policy areas from climate change and foreign policy to healthcare and the welfare state.

Download or read book Decision Making in a Complex Dynamic Environment written by Margaret A. Doty and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Dynamic Choice Under Ambiguity written by Marciano Siniscalchi and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes sophisticated dynamic choice for ambiguity-sensitive decision makers. It characterizes Consistent Planning via axioms on preferences over decision trees. Furthermore, it shows how to elicit conditional preferences from prior preferences. The key axiom is a weakening of Dynamic Consistency, deemed Sophistication. The analysis accommodates arbitrary decision models and updating rules. Hence, the results indicate that (i) ambiguity attitudes, (ii) updating rules, and (iii) sophisticated dynamic choice are mutually orthogonal aspects of preferences. As an example, a characterization of prior-by-prior Bayesian updating and Consistent Planning for arbitrary maxmin-expected utility preferences is presented. The resulting sophisticated MEU preferences are then used to analyze the value of information under ambiguity; a basic trade-off between information acquisition and commitment is highlighted.

Download or read book Essays in Decision Theory Induced and Revealed Preference written by Rui Tang and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of essays investigates dynamic choices and the revealed preference of indirect choices. In Chapter 1, I study dynamic choices when new information is ambiguous. I introduce a new updating rule, the conditional maximum likelihood rule (CML) for updating ambiguous information. CML satisfies a new axiom, increased sensitivity after updating, while existing updating rules do not. With CML, a decision maker's posterior is unaffected by the order in which independent signals arrive. CML accommodates recent experimental findings on updating ambiguous information and has applications on learning and information design. In Chapter 2, (co-authored with Mu Zhang), we propose a new model of menu preference that captures the optimism of decision makers. We model a decision maker who anticipates her preference to change in the future and optimistically evaluates each menu according to the best choice that could possibly be made by her future self. We characterize this menu preference, discuss its uniqueness and propose a comparative measure of optimism. The model connects optimism with the naive quasi-hyperbolic discounting model and has novel predictions on decision makers' choices over menus. In Chapter 3, (co-authored with Gaoji Hu, Jiangtao Li and John K.-H. Quah), we develop a theory for testing the rationality of decision makers when their indirect preferences over menus are observed. A preference over menus is said to be an indirect preference if it is induced by a preference over the objects that make up those menus. We consider partial information of a decision maker's ranking over certain menus and provide necessary and sufficient conditions on those rankings that guarantee the existence of a preference over objects that induces the observed menu rankings. We then apply this basic result to a wide variety of applications.

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Download or read book Essays on Dynamic Contracts written by Swagata Bhattacharjee and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation studies the design of contracts in different contexts. It contains two theoretical investigations about contracting under ambiguity: in the context of research partnerships and venture capital financing; and an experimental study to examine delegation of decision rights within organizations. The first chapter studies contract design for innovation under ambiguity. Outsourcing of research is a large and growing trend in knowledge-intensive industries such as the biotechnology and software industries. I model innovation as an ambiguous stochastic process and assume that the commercial firms and research labs differ in their attitude towards ambiguity. I characterize the optimal sequence of short-term contracts and examine how the features of this contract facilitate ambiguity sharing: the dynamic moral hazard problem is mitigated under ambiguity; experimentation stops earlier than is socially optimal; the project may be liquidated even after being granted a patent. I find that redesigning the patent law can not implement the Policymaker’s desired optimum. The second chapter analyzes venture capital investment under ambiguity. A central feature of venture capital financing is the extensive use of control rights as an instrument. In this chapter, I present a model of venture capital financing where investment is allowed to depend on an intermediate ambiguous signal. I show how the presence of ambiguity explains the allocation of control rights if the investor is more ambiguity averse than the entrepreneur. In the third chapter, I discuss how delegation of decision rights can be used as a signal of trust that can be reciprocated by cooperation. First, I theoretically show that in a principal-agent framework, using delegation as a signal is the only Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium that survives forward induction criterion. Then I use experimental methods to test this theoretical prediction. I find that the players do not use delegation very often, thus the forward induction logic is not supported by the observed data. However, once the players are given information about the past sessions, they choose the forward induction equilibrium more often. This suggests that information affects the formation of beliefs and equilibrium selection in Bayesian games.