Download or read book Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-09-01 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico, and Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates and have prompted researchers to undertake new theoretical and empirical analysis of these events. This paper provides some perspective on this work and relates it to earlier research. It derives the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and proposes a common framework for analyzing currency crises. This framework stresses the important role of speculators and recognizes that the government’s commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. The final section finds that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.

Download or read book Currencies Crises Fiscal Policy and Coordination written by Paul R. Masson and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides an integrated compilation of selected major articles published by the author in several fields of international finance. These include contributions to the understanding of currency crises and financial contagion, the evolution of exchange rate regimes, the interaction between national fiscal policies and regional monetary unions, and the effect of uncertainty on the gains from international economic policy coordination. The author spent most of his career doing research at established institutions (the Bank of Canada, OECD, and IMF), and these articles emerged from the need to understand the major economic policy issues of the day. In the book's introduction, the author discusses the motivation for these contributions and the unifying themes that emerged, while a concluding chapter provides his personal reflections and suggestions about promising avenues for further research.

Download or read book Currency Crises written by Paul Krugman and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is no universally accepted definition of a currency crisis, but most would agree that they all involve one key element: investors fleeing a currency en masse out of fear that it might be devalued, in turn fueling the very devaluation they anticipated. Although such crises—the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, the speculations on European currencies in the early 1990s, and the ensuing Mexican, South American, and Asian crises—have played a central role in world affairs and continue to occur at an alarming rate, many questions about their causes and effects remain to be answered. In this wide-ranging volume, some of the best minds in economics focus on the historical and theoretical aspects of currency crises to investigate three fundamental issues: What drives currency crises? How should government behavior be modeled? And what are the actual consequences to the real economy? Reflecting the latest thinking on the subject, this offering from the NBER will serve as a useful basis for further debate on the theory and practice of speculative attacks, as well as a valuable resource as new crises loom.

Download or read book Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-02-15 with total page 783 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.

Download or read book European Currency Crises and After written by Christian Bordes-Marcilloux and published by Manchester University Press. This book was released on 1995 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The speculative crises of 1992-93, which shook the EMS, left in their wake a series of questions about the monetary future of Europe, exchange rate behaviour and exchange-rate policy. This book explores these questions from the varying standpoints of econo

Download or read book Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals written by Alessandro Prati and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies how uncertainty about fundamentals contributed to currency crises from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. We find evidenceCbased on a monthly dataset of Consensus forecasts for six Asian countries in the period January 1995-May 2001Cconfirming the theoretical predictions (from both unique- and multiple-equilibria models) that: (i) speculative attacks depend not only on actual and expected fundamentals but also on the variance of speculators' expectations about them; and (ii) the sign of the effect of the variance depends on whether expected fundamentals are "good" or "bad." These results are robust to the definition of exchange rate pressure indices, the estimation sample (precrisis vs. full sample), the method chosen to avoid spurious correlations, and possible time-varying coefficients for the mean, the variance, and the threshold separating good from bad expected fundamentals.

Download or read book The Determinants of Currency Crises written by B. Rother and published by Springer. This book was released on 2009-04-17 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the role of political factors in the occurrence of currency crises, using an eclectic approach that blends case studies, a rigorous theoretical discussion, and econometric analysis.

Download or read book A Model of Contagious Currency Crises with Application to Argentina written by Ms.Nada Choueiri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-03-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a model of contagious currency crises: crises transmit across countries by raising the risk premium on government bonds. Three types of equilibria can occur: a “no-collapse” equilibrium (crises never transmit from abroad); a “collapse” equilibrium (crises are inevitably contagious); or a “fundamentals” equilibrium (crises are contagious if domestic fundamentals are weak). A calibration exercise finds that the 1995 turmoil in Argentina coexisted with a combination of risk-averse investors and weak credibility in the currency board arrangement. This turmoil could only be attributed to a Tequila effect from the Mexican crisis alone if investors were excessively risk-averse.

Download or read book Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Peter Isard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-12 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper describes six different methodologies that have been used to assess the equilibrium values of exchange rates and discusses their limitations. It applies several of the approaches to data for the United States as of 2006, illustrates that different approaches sometimes provide substantially different assessments, and asks which methodologies deserve the most weight in such situations. It argues that while it is generally desirable to consider the implications of several different approaches, since different approaches provide different types of perspectives, two of the methodologies seem particularly relevant for identifying threats to macroeconomic stability and growth.

Download or read book Equilibrium Currency Crises written by Gareth Davies and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Information Dissemination in Currency Crises written by Christina Evelies Metz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the complexity of financial markets keeps growing, so does the need to understand the decision-making and the coordination of the exsuing actions in the marketplace. In particular, the disclosure of information to market participants and its impact on the market outcome mertis attention. This study analyses the role of private and public information in currency crises. Calls for increased dissemination of economic and policy-related information by central banks notwithstanding, the study shows that transparency is not generally conductive to preventing speculative attacks in fixed exchange-rate regimes. Rather, the role of private and public information in the market-place depencs critically on the prevailing market sentiment. The study also highlights the import of market transparency design in an environment that allows for herding and market leadership of individual speculators.

Download or read book Rationalised panics The consequences of strategic uncertainty during financial crisis written by Tijmen Roderik Danie͏̈ls and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2009 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Are Currency Crises Low state Equilibria written by Christopher M. Cornell and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a simple macroeconomic model of a small open economy subject to international shocks that may induce rapid depreciation in the nation's currency and/or a drop in the nation's income (a currency crisis or a low output state). This framework allows examination of the interaction between particular forms of intermediate exchange rate regimes and the potential use of that monetary policy to alter the likelihood of a currency crisis or a low output state. Both possible types of currency crises the nation could experience are discussed along with how a monetary authority's preference for exchange rate stability, as compared with other goals, alters its potential exposure to currency crises and low output states. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood methods using data for Argentina, Canada, and Turkey. The results supply evidence regarding support for third-generation models of currency crisis.

Download or read book The Role of Institutional Quality in a Currency Crisis Model written by Yi Wu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper is a theoretical study of the impact of institutional quality on currency crises from a public finance point of view. Recent empirical studies leave little doubt that weak institutions, including high levels of corruption, hinder economic performance. After the East Asian crisis, many observers have pointed to widespread corruption and crony capitalism as an underlying cause. Despite the popularity of the claim, there are only limited empirical and especially theoretical studies on the link between institutional quality and currency crises. This paper intends to fill in this void. We model institutional weakness as an inefficiency of the tax collection system. The model derived here shows that institutional weakness generally increases the likelihood of the existence of a self-fulfilling crisis equilibrium, and leads to larger currency devaluation when crises happen. However, this relationship could reverse when institutional weakness is very severe.

Download or read book Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis written by Craig Burnside and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1999 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent Asian currency crisis was caused by large prospective fiscal deficits associated with implicit bailout guarantees to failing banking systems. Absent the political will to raise taxes or cut spending, governments must resort to seignorage revenues to pay for the bailout of the banking system. In a world of forward-looking agents, this makes a currency crisis inevitable.

Download or read book Multiple Equilibria Contagion and the Emerging Market Crises written by Mr.Paul R. Masson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-12-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper surveys the types of models producing multiple equilibria in financial markets. It argues that such models are consistent with observed phenomena, such as the greater volatility of financial asset prices than of macroeconomic fundamentals. Alternative explanations are compared with the stylized facts concerning capital flows, portfolio shifts, and exchange rate crises. Implications for crisis prediction and prevention are then discussed.

Download or read book Policy Implications of Second Generation Crisis Models written by Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-02 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates in Europe and in Mexico, economists began to develop models of currency crises with multiple solutions. In these models, a currency crisis occurs when the economy suddenly jumps from one solution to another. This paper examines one of the new models, finding that raising the cost of devaluation may make a crisis more likely. Consequently, slow convergence to a monetary union, which increases the cost to the government of reneging on an exchange rate peg, may be counterproductive. This conclusion is exactly the opposite of that obtained from earlier models.